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Climatology and Spatiotemporal Analysis of North Atlantic Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes (1851–2017)
Open AccessArticle

North Atlantic Hurricane Winds in Warmer than Normal Seas

227 Howe-Russell Geoscience Complex, Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LO 70803, USA
Atmosphere 2020, 11(3), 293; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11030293
Received: 19 December 2019 / Revised: 9 March 2020 / Accepted: 12 March 2020 / Published: 16 March 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Hazards)
Tropical cyclones devastate coastlines around the world. The United States and surrounding areas experienced catastrophic extreme events in recent hurricane seasons. Understanding extreme hurricanes and how they change in a warming ocean environment is of the utmost importance. This study makes use of the historical, positive relationship between average summer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and maximum hurricane wind speeds across the North Atlantic Basin from 1854–2018. Geographically weighted regression shows how the relationship between hurricane winds and SSTs varies across space. Each localized slope is used to increase historical wind speeds to represent winds in a three-degree Celsius warmer-than-average sea surface. The winds are then used to estimate the maximum intensity of the thirty-year hurricane (one with a 3.3% annual probability of occurrence) across the hexagonal grid using extreme value statistics. Viewing the results spatially allows for geographic patterns to emerge in the overall risk of major hurricane occurrence in warm SST environments. This study showcases the difference in the historical extreme compared to the potential future extreme in the hopes to better inform those charged with making important, life-saving decisions along the U.S. and neighboring coasts. View Full-Text
Keywords: tropical cyclones; climate change; risk; spatial statistics tropical cyclones; climate change; risk; spatial statistics
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Trepanier, J.C. North Atlantic Hurricane Winds in Warmer than Normal Seas. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 293.

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