Next Article in Journal
Adsorption of Phenol from Wastewater Using Calcined Magnesium-Zinc-Aluminium Layered Double Hydroxide Clay
Previous Article in Journal
An Optimal Preventive Maintenance Policy for a Solar Photovoltaic System
Open AccessArticle

A Comprehensive Forecasting–Optimization Analysis Framework for Environmental-Oriented Power System Management—A Case Study of Harbin City, China

1
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
2
Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100871, China
3
School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology, Beijing 100083, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2020, 12(10), 4272; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12104272
Received: 16 April 2020 / Revised: 17 May 2020 / Accepted: 20 May 2020 / Published: 22 May 2020
In this study, a comprehensive research framework coupled with electric power demand forecasting, a regional electric system planning model, and post-optimization analysis is proposed for electric power system management. For dealing with multiple forms of uncertainties and dynamics concerning energy utilization, capacity expansions, and environmental protection, the inexact two-stage stochastic robust programming optimization model was developed. The novel programming method, which integrates interval parameter programming (IPP), stochastic robust optimization (SRO), and two-stage stochastic programming (TSP), was applied to electric power system planning and management in Harbin, China. Furthermore, the Gray-Markov approach was employed for effective electricity consumption prediction, and the forecasted results can be described as interval values with corresponding occurrence probability, aiming to produce viable input parameters of the optimization model. Ten scenarios were analyzed with different emissions reduction levels and electricity power structure adjustment modes, and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) was selected to identify the most influential factors of planning decisions by selecting the optimal scheme. The results indicate that a diversified power structure that dominates by thermal power and is mainly supplemented by biomass power should be formed to ensure regional sustainable development and electricity power supply security in Harbin. In addition, power structure adjustment is more effective than the pollutants emission control for electricity power system management. The results are insightful for supporting supply-side energy reform, generating an electricity generation scheme, adjusting energy structures, and formulating energy consumption of local policies. View Full-Text
Keywords: emissions reduction; optimization model; post-optimization analysis; power demand forecasting; structure adjustment; uncertainties emissions reduction; optimization model; post-optimization analysis; power demand forecasting; structure adjustment; uncertainties
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Zhang, Y.; Fu, Z.; Xie, Y.; Hu, Q.; Li, Z.; Guo, H. A Comprehensive Forecasting–Optimization Analysis Framework for Environmental-Oriented Power System Management—A Case Study of Harbin City, China. Sustainability 2020, 12, 4272.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop