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Open AccessArticle

Quantitative Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Crop Loss in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China

by Wei Xu 1,2,3,*, Xiaodong Ming 4, Yunjia Ma 1,2,3, Xinhang Zhang 1,2,3, Peijun Shi 1,2,3,*, Li Zhuo 5 and Bingqiang Lu 6
1
Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
4
School of Civil Engineering & Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK
5
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
6
Guangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanning 530007, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2019, 11(3), 922; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030922
Received: 21 January 2019 / Revised: 30 January 2019 / Accepted: 10 February 2019 / Published: 12 February 2019
Due to their complexity, hazard interactions are often neglected in current studies of multi-hazard risk assessment. As a result, the assessment results are qualitative or semi-quantitative and are difficult to use in regional risk management. In this paper, the crop loss risk due to heavy rain and strong wind in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China was quantitatively assessed, based on the joint return periods of these hazards and a vulnerability surface. The joint return period is obtained with a copula function based on the marginal distribution of each hazard. The vulnerability is fitted by considering the joint hazard intensity, the sown area of crops, elevation, and GDP per capita. The results show that counties with a high value of joint hazard probability are clustered in the southeast coastal area and that the value gradually decreases from south to north and from east to west. The multi-hazard risk has a similar pattern, with a large value in the southeast coastal area and a low value in the northwest. The proposed method can be used for quantitative assessment of multi-hazard risk, and the results can be used for regional disaster risk management and planning. View Full-Text
Keywords: multi-hazard; copula; joint return period; vulnerability surface; crop loss risk; Yangtze River Delta region multi-hazard; copula; joint return period; vulnerability surface; crop loss risk; Yangtze River Delta region
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Xu, W.; Ming, X.; Ma, Y.; Zhang, X.; Shi, P.; Zhuo, L.; Lu, B. Quantitative Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Crop Loss in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China. Sustainability 2019, 11, 922.

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