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Forecasting Monthly Prices of Japanese Logs

Department of Forest Policy and Economics, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI), Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan
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Forests 2016, 7(5), 94; https://doi.org/10.3390/f7050094
Received: 8 January 2016 / Revised: 23 March 2016 / Accepted: 18 April 2016 / Published: 26 April 2016
Forecasts of prices can help industries in their risk management. This is especially true for Japanese logs, which experience sharp fluctuations in price. In this research, the authors used an exponential smoothing method (ETS) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast the monthly prices of domestic logs of three of the most important species in Japan: sugi (Japanese cedar, Cryptomeria japonica D. Don), hinoki (Japanese cypress, Chamaecyparis obtusa (Sieb. et Zucc.) Endl.), and karamatsu (Japanese larch, Larix kaempferi (Lamb.) Carr.). For the 12-month forecasting periods, forecasting intervals of 80% and 95% were given. By measuring the accuracy of forecasts of 12- and 6-month forecasting periods, it was found that ARIMA gave better results than did the ETS in the majority of cases. However, the combined method of averaging ETS and ARIMA forecasts gave the best results for hinoki in several cases. View Full-Text
Keywords: log prices; forecasting; forecasting interval; exponential smoothing; ARIMA log prices; forecasting; forecasting interval; exponential smoothing; ARIMA
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Michinaka, T.; Kuboyama, H.; Tamura, K.; Oka, H.; Yamamoto, N. Forecasting Monthly Prices of Japanese Logs. Forests 2016, 7, 94.

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