Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Methodology
3.1. SHP Potential Calculation
3.2. Climate Model and Climate Change Scenario
3.3. RAPS (Rescaled Adjusted Partial Sums) Method
4. Estimation and Variability Analysis of SHP Potential under Climate Change
4.1. Target Basin Selectin and Data Collection
4.1.1. Target Basin Selection
4.1.2. Climate Change Scenario Data Collection
- Projection Period 1: 2021–2040
- Projection Period 2: 2041–2060
- Projection Period 3: 2061–2080
- Projection Period 4: 2081–2100
4.2. SHP Potential Estimation under Climate Change
4.3. Analysis of the Variability of SHP Potential under Climate Change
5. Discussion and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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SHP Plant | Standard Basin | Commissioned Time | Effective Head [m] | Power Generation Flow Rate | Installed Power Associated with the Hydropower Plant |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deoksong | Jeongseon | March 1993 | 12.5 | 25.0 | 2600 |
Hanseok | Saigokcheon junction | March 1998 | 3.8 | Avg. 3.02/Max. 12.7 | 2214 |
Socheon | Socheon streamflow station | August 1985 | 22.5 | 12.5 | 2400 |
Standard Basin | Large Basin | Runoff Coefficient (C) | Runoff Curve Number (CN) | Basin Area | Cumulative Basin Area |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jeongseon | Han River | 0.56 | 58 | 179.6 | 1834.7 |
Saigokcheon junction | Han River | 0.56 | 64 | 128.7 | 4898.0 |
Socheon streamflow station | Nakdong River | 0.57 | 47 | 140.8 | 547.2 |
Observation Station | Management Agency | Coordinates (WGS84) | Start of Observation | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Latitude | Longitude | |||
Yeongwol | Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) | 37.18 | 128.46 | 1 December 1997 |
Daegwallyeong | 37.68 | 128.72 | 11 July 1971 | |
Yeongju | 36.87 | 128.52 | 28 November 1972 | |
Uljin | 36.99 | 129.41 | 12 January 1971 | |
Bonghwa | 36.94 | 128.91 | 1 January 1988 |
Observation Station | Management Agency | Zero of Staff Gauge (EL.m) | Benchmark Elevation (EL.m) | Start of Observation |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jeongseon | Ministry of Environment | 296.79 | 312.42 | 1 January 1918 |
Yeongchun | K-water | 159.97 | 177.63 | 30 August 1985 |
Socheon | K-water | 250.08 | 262.03 | 16 July 1978 |
Projection Period | I (2021–2040) | II (2041–2060) | III (2061–2080) | IV (2081–2100) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | 35.6 | 35.9 | 39.5 | 37.6 |
Standard deviation | 4.7 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 4.9 |
Projection Period | I (2021–2040) | II (2041–2060) | III (2061–2080) | IV (2081–2100) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | 94.9 | 96.2 | 111.8 | 107.2 |
Standard deviation | 19.0 | 15.4 | 32.4 | 25.3 |
Projection Period | I (2021–2040) | II (2041–2060) | III (2061–2080) | IV (2081–2100) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | 14.0 | 13.4 | 14.8 | 16.7 |
Standard deviation | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 5.9 |
Year | Deoksong | Hanseok | Socheon | Year | Deoksong | Hanseok | Socheon |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 9261 | 7847 | 6451 | 2061 | 10,361 | 20,363 | 8216 |
2022 | 9336 | 9490 | 6422 | 2062 | 10,419 | 18,722 | 8369 |
2023 | 10,348 | 11,661 | 8534 | 2063 | 8985 | 12,529 | 8201 |
2024 | 9305 | 11,178 | 7109 | 2064 | 10,751 | 11,293 | 10,864 |
2025 | 9841 | 12,889 | 8201 | 2065 | 9591 | 7385 | 8272 |
2026 | 11,140 | 10,997 | 6236 | 2066 | 9853 | 10,543 | 6496 |
2027 | 10,409 | 12,232 | 9091 | 2067 | 10,313 | 10,937 | 7929 |
2028 | 9442 | 11,816 | 9103 | 2068 | 10,384 | 15,513 | 8779 |
2029 | 10,172 | 8556 | 6489 | 2069 | 10,432 | 10,388 | 8365 |
2030 | 9532 | 13,655 | 7608 | 2070 | 10,518 | 8755 | 9311 |
2031 | 10,001 | 9708 | 8220 | 2071 | 9328 | 9961 | 8553 |
2032 | 10,260 | 8556 | 8509 | 2072 | 10,172 | 12,288 | 7441 |
2033 | 9196 | 8021 | 6151 | 2073 | 10,050 | 13,550 | 8726 |
2034 | 10,231 | 9997 | 8044 | 2074 | 10,337 | 10,682 | 7117 |
2035 | 9499 | 6388 | 7363 | 2075 | 10,931 | 11,948 | 6301 |
2036 | 9549 | 9183 | 8479 | 2076 | 10,739 | 8783 | 8576 |
2037 | 10,686 | 9870 | 9207 | 2077 | 10,655 | 18,440 | 8199 |
2038 | 10,629 | 10,433 | 8020 | 2078 | 9345 | 8233 | 7448 |
2039 | 10,053 | 12,253 | 7541 | 2079 | 10,226 | 12,127 | 8963 |
2040 | 11,443 | 14,635 | 7084 | 2080 | 10,051 | 14,859 | 7752 |
2041 | 10,383 | 8690 | 6672 | 2081 | 9698 | 11,038 | 7173 |
2042 | 8886 | 10,567 | 7027 | 2082 | 10,876 | 13,244 | 10,213 |
2043 | 10,564 | 9075 | 5670 | 2083 | 8876 | 19,216 | 8811 |
2044 | 9708 | 11,263 | 7978 | 2084 | 10,825 | 17,352 | 8957 |
2045 | 10,635 | 11,236 | 6143 | 2085 | 9755 | 13,475 | 7664 |
2046 | 10,263 | 11,370 | 7476 | 2086 | 10,318 | 12,181 | 7083 |
2047 | 9546 | 9944 | 8663 | 2087 | 9953 | 11,566 | 7340 |
2048 | 10,036 | 8304 | 8150 | 2088 | 9986 | 13,062 | 8604 |
2049 | 10,266 | 12,985 | 6477 | 2089 | 9022 | 10,848 | 7649 |
2050 | 9141 | 10,326 | 8551 | 2090 | 10,097 | 10,358 | 7426 |
2051 | 10,443 | 9319 | 8166 | 2091 | 11,325 | 13,143 | 6817 |
2052 | 9250 | 15,317 | 7344 | 2092 | 9364 | 7887 | 8171 |
2053 | 10,535 | 11,731 | 9354 | 2093 | 8506 | 9095 | 8321 |
2054 | 9753 | 10,083 | 6516 | 2094 | 9303 | 8493 | 6964 |
2055 | 10,417 | 9198 | 6217 | 2095 | 9759 | 10,829 | 7762 |
2056 | 10,105 | 7949 | 6394 | 2096 | 10,320 | 11,258 | 8694 |
2057 | 8827 | 10,677 | 7989 | 2097 | 9738 | 8606 | 7690 |
2058 | 9229 | 11,525 | 6827 | 2098 | 9501 | 11,779 | 8284 |
2059 | 9473 | 11,832 | 7898 | 2099 | 10,485 | 10,178 | 7260 |
2060 | 8941 | 11,324 | 7675 | 2100 | 9151 | 13,214 | 6501 |
SHP Plant | Period | Average Annual Potential | Variation Compared to the Present Level | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deoksong | Present | 2008–2017 | 8241 | - | |
Future | I | 2021–2040 | 10,017 | 1776 (↑21.6%) | |
II | 2041–2060 | 9820 | 1580 (↑19.2%) | ||
III | 2061–2080 | 10,172 | 1931 (↑23.4%) | ||
IV | 2081–2100 | 9843 | 1603 (↑19.4%) | ||
Hanseok | Present | 2008–2017 | 10,645 | - | |
Future | I | 2021–2040 | 10,468 | −176 (↓1.7%) | |
II | 2041–2060 | 10,636 | −9 (↓0.1%) | ||
III | 2061–2080 | 12,365 | 1720 (↑16.2%) | ||
IV | 2081–2100 | 11,841 | 1197 (↑11.2%) | ||
Socheon | Present | 2008–2017 | 7208 | - | |
Future | I | 2021–2040 | 7693 | 485 (↑6.7%) | |
II | 2041–2060 | 7359 | 151 (↑2.1%) | ||
III | 2061–2080 | 8194 | 986 (↑13.7%) | ||
IV | 2081–2100 | 7869 | 661 (↑9.2%) |
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Jung, J.; Jung, S.; Lee, J.; Lee, M.; Kim, H.S. Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change. Energies 2021, 14, 3001. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14113001
Jung J, Jung S, Lee J, Lee M, Kim HS. Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change. Energies. 2021; 14(11):3001. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14113001
Chicago/Turabian StyleJung, Jaewon, Sungeun Jung, Junhyeong Lee, Myungjin Lee, and Hung Soo Kim. 2021. "Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change" Energies 14, no. 11: 3001. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14113001