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Article

Including Wind Power Generation in Brazil’s Long-Term Optimization Model for Energy Planning

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Industrial Engineering Department, PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro-RJ 22451-900, Brazil
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Electrical Engineering Department, PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro-RJ 22451-900, Brazil
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2019, 12(5), 826; https://doi.org/10.3390/en12050826
Received: 31 December 2018 / Revised: 21 February 2019 / Accepted: 26 February 2019 / Published: 2 March 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Optimisation Models and Methods in Energy Systems)
In the past two decades, wind power’s share of the energy mix has grown significantly in Brazil. However, nowadays planning electricity operation in Brazil basically involves evaluating the future conditions of energy supply from hydro and thermal sources over the planning horizon. In this context, wind power sources are not stochastically treated. This work applies an innovative approach that incorporates wind power generation in the Brazilian hydro-thermal dispatch using the analytical method of Frequency & Duration. The proposed approach is applied to Brazil’s Northeast region, covering the planning period from July 2017 to December 2021, using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to simulate wind power scenarios. The obtained results are more conservative than the one currently used by the National Electric System Operator, since the proposed approach forecasts 1.8% less wind generation, especially during peak periods, and 0.67% more thermal generation. This conservatism can reduce the chance of water reservoir depletion and, also an ineffective dispatch. View Full-Text
Keywords: net demand; wind power forecasting; long-term forecasting; intermittent sources; Markov chain Monte Carlo net demand; wind power forecasting; long-term forecasting; intermittent sources; Markov chain Monte Carlo
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MDPI and ACS Style

Medina Maçaira, P.; Monteiro Cyrillo, Y.; Cyrino Oliveira, F.L.; Castro Souza, R. Including Wind Power Generation in Brazil’s Long-Term Optimization Model for Energy Planning. Energies 2019, 12, 826. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12050826

AMA Style

Medina Maçaira P, Monteiro Cyrillo Y, Cyrino Oliveira FL, Castro Souza R. Including Wind Power Generation in Brazil’s Long-Term Optimization Model for Energy Planning. Energies. 2019; 12(5):826. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12050826

Chicago/Turabian Style

Medina Maçaira, Paula, Yasmin Monteiro Cyrillo, Fernando L. Cyrino Oliveira, and Reinaldo Castro Souza. 2019. "Including Wind Power Generation in Brazil’s Long-Term Optimization Model for Energy Planning" Energies 12, no. 5: 826. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12050826

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