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Article

Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling and Forecasts of Oil Production in the Bakken Shale

The Ali I. Al-Naimi Petroleum Engineering Research Center, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
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Energies 2019, 12(19), 3641; https://doi.org/10.3390/en12193641
Received: 18 August 2019 / Revised: 10 September 2019 / Accepted: 16 September 2019 / Published: 24 September 2019
We aim to replace the current industry-standard empirical forecasts of oil production from hydrofractured horizontal wells in shales with a statistically and physically robust, accurate and precise method of matching historic well performance and predicting well production for up to two more decades. Our Bakken oil forecasting method extends the previous work on predicting fieldwide gas production in the Barnett shale and merges it with our new scaling of oil production in the Bakken. We first divide the existing 14,678 horizontal oil wells in the Bakken into 12 static samples in which reservoir quality and completion technologies are similar. For each sample, we use a purely data-driven non-parametric approach to arrive at an appropriate generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution of oil production from that sample’s dynamic well cohorts with at least 1 , 2 , 3 , years on production. From these well cohorts, we stitch together the P 50 , P 10 , and P 90 statistical well prototypes for each sample. These statistical well prototypes are conditioned by well attrition, hydrofracture deterioration, pressure interference, well interference, progress in technology, and so forth. So far, there has been no physical scaling. Now we fit the parameters of our physical scaling model to the statistical well prototypes, and obtain a smooth extrapolation of oil production that is mechanistic, and not just a decline curve. At late times, we add radial inflow from the outside. By calculating the number of potential wells per square mile of each Bakken region (core and noncore), and scheduling future drilling programs, we stack up the extended well prototypes to obtain the plausible forecasts of oil production in the Bakken. We predict that Bakken will ultimately produce 5 billion barrels of oil from the existing wells, with the possible addition of 2 and 6 billion barrels from core and noncore areas, respectively. View Full-Text
Keywords: EUR; infill wells; (re)fracturing; pressure depletion EUR; infill wells; (re)fracturing; pressure depletion
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MDPI and ACS Style

Saputra, W.; Kirati, W.; Patzek, T. Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling and Forecasts of Oil Production in the Bakken Shale. Energies 2019, 12, 3641. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12193641

AMA Style

Saputra W, Kirati W, Patzek T. Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling and Forecasts of Oil Production in the Bakken Shale. Energies. 2019; 12(19):3641. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12193641

Chicago/Turabian Style

Saputra, Wardana, Wissem Kirati, and Tadeusz Patzek. 2019. "Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling and Forecasts of Oil Production in the Bakken Shale" Energies 12, no. 19: 3641. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12193641

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