Search Results (3,295)

Quantifying the impact of land use changes on the threat of flash-floods is a critical consideration in flood hazard planning and risk reduction, and is an area of active research. Here, a coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model hydrological extension package (i.e., WRF-Hydro) modeling approach is applied to simulate flash-flooding processes for short-duration, localized, intense precipitation events. To better understand the effect of urbanization on flash floods, a series of numerical experiments is performed surrounding Ellicott City, Maryland, a location which has experienced both significant heavy rainfall events and suburban development over the past several decades. Two intense rainfall events occurring on 30 July 2016 and 27 May 2018 are investigated, respectively, to first calibrate the hydrologic model performance and then quantify the sensitivity of flash flooding to varying degrees of urbanization. Performing the same experiments using observed historical land use states is of more limited insight, as the thrust of suburban development in the Ellicott City region significantly predates satellite-derived land use datasets. Results confirm that urbanization produces larger river streamflow, higher water stages, faster hydrologic responses to achieve peak flow discharge, and shorter recession limbs, even for very intense, short-duration events. The collective findings suggest that WRF-Hydro is applicable for both watershed flash flood prediction and hypothesis testing, and demonstrates potential utility to urban development decision-makers in locations such as Ellicott City, which could face future increases in catastrophic flooding. Full article

Elevated concentrations of fine particulate matter ($P{M}_{2.5}$) are a critical threat to respiratory health worldwide. Therefore, there is an urgent need for precise urban forecasting systems for public health management. Technological advancements in the domains of continuous environmental monitoring and deep learning have enabled large-scale data acquisition, processing, and modeling. Existing predictive models typically depend on auxiliary meteorological inputs, which are frequently inaccessible within standard ground-level monitoring networks. Furthermore, conventional approaches often fail to adequately capture the complex spatio-temporal interactions of pollutants. To address these limitations, this study presents the Spatio-Temporal Endogenous Attention Network (STEA-Net), a forecasting framework designed to operate exclusively without weather variables. Validated on a comprehensive multi-year historical dataset (Jan 2015–Feb 2020) from diverse monitoring stations in India, STEA-Net employs a hybrid adjacency matrix that integrates physical geographical distances with functional clustering to accurately map pollutant transport pathways. Utilizing this structural map, a Graph Attention Network dynamically evaluates the spatial influence of neighboring nodes, while a Bidirectional LSTM processes the underlying temporal sequences. Experimental results demonstrate that STEA-Net substantially surpasses traditional machine learning algorithms and provides competitive performance against advanced deep learning baselines. The proposed model achieves a peak Coefficient of Determination ($R^2$) of 0.9294 (5-seed average: $0.9273\pm 0.0023$) and a peak RMSE of 14.38 µg/m³ (5-seed average: $14.59\pm 0.23$ µg/m³), effectively adapting to the dynamic volatility of urban pollution levels. The model exhibits architectural stability with a Monte Carlo dropout verified deviation of $\pm 2.22$ µg/m³. This research provides a forecasting architecture that retains competitive predictive performance under the strict operational constraint of meteorology-free deployment in resource-constrained urban monitoring environments. Full article

Landfalling typhoons are the dominant trigger of short-duration extreme rainfall along the Zhejiang coast. It is necessary to estimate the recurrence of future typhoon rainfall at the city scale under the global-warming scenarios. Using Super Typhoon Lekima (2019) as a representative high-impact event, this study develops an event-based assessment framework for Taizhou city by combining the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulation, pseudo-global-warming (PGW) perturbation experiments, and generalized extreme value analysis. The historical simulation is first evaluated against the China Meteorological Administration best track, storm intensity evolution, and station rainfall observations. Future counterparts of the same event are then generated using CMIP6-derived thermodynamic perturbations under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. Finally, scenario-dependent rainfall totals are projected onto a historical GEV curve to identify equivalent historical rainfall return periods. Results show that the WRF setup reproduces the main track, intensity tendency, and rainfall timing of Lekima with reasonable fidelity. The ensemble-mean cumulative rainfall over the Taizhou area increases from 204.75 mm in the historical simulation to 335.85, 366.72, 400.79, and 464.08 mm under the four SSPs, respectively. These increases translate into equivalent historical rainfall return periods of 47.40, 84.61, 164.28, and 604.05 years, compared with 5.24 years for the historical case. The results indicate that the moderate thermodynamic rainfall amplification produces a highly nonlinear escalation of event rarity based on historical frequency statistics. This implies that future typhoon rainfall should be interpreted using scenario-aware benchmarks within the historical reference framework. Full article

Solar filaments (and their limb counterparts, prominences) are critical tracers of the Sun’s magnetic topology and key precursors to coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Precise identification and continuous tracking of these features are essential for understanding solar eruptive mechanisms and improving space weather forecasting. This systematic review evaluates the evolution of automated detection methodologies, addressing the challenge of processing the exponentially growing volume of high-resolution solar observations. We identify deep learning architectures, particularly U-Net variants and Mask R-CNN, as the most promising current paradigms. Compared to traditional image processing, these data-driven models demonstrate superior robustness against noise and variable observing conditions, achieving high-precision segmentation (>90% accuracy) with sub-second inference speeds. This leap in computational efficiency and accuracy directly facilitates real-time operational monitoring and enables large-scale statistical analysis of filament evolution across solar cycles. We conclude that future breakthroughs lie in developing physics-informed AI and standardized benchmarks to bridge the gap between pixel-level segmentation and physical interpretation, ultimately creating detection systems that are both operationally reliable and scientifically meaningful. Full article

Extreme weather events exacerbated by global warming pose severe threats to urban safety, underscoring the urgent need for highly accurate precipitation nowcasting. Short-term local heavy precipitation remains a particular challenge for traditional forecasting due to its suddenness and high disaster potential. To address this, we propose a multi-modal fusion framework that integrates ground-based GNSS-derived Precipitable Water Vapor (GNSS-PWV) and ground-based Radar Composite Reflectivity (CR). While GNSS-PWV keenly captures pre-convective atmospheric water vapor accumulation, radar CR details the morphological distribution of hydrometeors. Specifically, we developed the Spatio-Temporal Enhanced Attention Swin U-Net (STEA-Swin) model to synergize these heterogeneous datasets over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. High-precision PWV was retrieved from 250 Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) using the dual-frequency ionosphere-free Precise Point Positioning (PPP) method, achieving a strong correlation (>0.97) with ERA5 reanalysis data. Validated against measured data from the 2025 flood season, the STEA-Swin model achieved a Probability of Detection (POD) of 0.68 for torrential rain events at a +1 h forecast lead time. Notably, compared to single-source models, the Critical Success Index (CSI) and POD for torrential rain improved by 18.5% and 21.5%, respectively. These findings demonstrate that coupling deep learning with ground-based GNSS-derived atmospheric thermodynamic information can significantly enhance early warning capabilities, providing a promising technical approach for regional disaster prevention and climate resilience. Full article

Rooftop farms are urban green infrastructure integrating food production, ecological regulation, and public services, and their management increasingly relies on data-driven approaches. However, open built environments, microclimatic heterogeneity, and limited sensor deployment challenge continuous monitoring and short-term prediction of rooftop plant growth. This study proposes and validates a virtual sensor-driven digital twin system using a rooftop tomato case in Xiamen, China. The system adopts a five-layer architecture comprising data acquisition, transmission, modeling, processing, and application service layers. By coupling a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) weather prediction model with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop growth model, a predictive virtual sensor module was developed to forecast leaf area index (LAI), aboveground biomass, phenology, and yield for seven days. Results show that the system links environmental data acquisition, LSTM–DSSAT prediction, database storage, and three-dimensional visualization, transforming rooftop plant growth into an updatable, predictable, and visualized digital twin object. The coupled model showed high predictive accuracy, with R² values of 0.9814 for LAI and 0.9966 for aboveground biomass, while supporting phenology and yield prediction. The system supports irrigation optimization, landscape management, and activity planning in sensor-constrained rooftop farms. Full article

Assessing the contribution of tropical cyclones to regional precipitation variability is essential for understanding the associated hydrometeorological benefits and risks. This study quantifies the contribution of tropical cyclones to annual precipitation in the northernmost part of South America from 2016 to 2025, utilizing data from surface rain gauges. Simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, configured with 2 km grid spacing and 38 vertical levels, estimate the influence of relative humidity at 850 hPa and ambient temperature at 500 hPa on precipitation over the continental region when each convective system is nearest to the coastline. During Hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Melissa (2025), contributions to the annual average precipitation reached 51% and 47%, respectively, with the highest values observed near the northern South American coastline. The contributions of Harvey (2017), Iota (2020), Julia (2022), and Beryl (2024) to annual precipitation were 0–26%, 0–18%, 0–12%, and 0–19%, respectively. Precipitation distribution was heterogeneous during the passage of tropical storms. The extent of accumulated precipitation was influenced by the cyclone’s trajectory and proximity to mountainous regions. Patterns of relative humidity at 850 hPa did not correspond to a uniform precipitation distribution. Between 6% and 30% of rain gauges did not record precipitation during the analyzed tropical cyclone events. These findings highlight that tropical cyclone-induced precipitation is strongly influenced by complex interactions between atmospheric dynamics and topography. Future research should assess the contributions of these systems to groundwater and surface reservoirs that support indigenous communities in rural areas. Full article

The risk of wildfires is increasing due to high temperatures and dry weather conditions caused by climate change. Outbreaks and spread of wildfires are usually conditioned by weather, topography, and fuel characteristics. In the Republic of Korea (hereafter, the ROK), most wildfires are caused by anthropogenic factors rather than natural ones. However, the current forest fire forecasting system being operated in the ROK does not account for anthropogenic factors. To analyze the impact of human and physical factors on wildfire occurrence, a binary logistic regression model was constructed using data from the Gangwon and Gyeongbuk provinces from January 2022 to August 2025. The dependent variable was defined as the occurrence of a wildfire, while the independent variables comprised meteorological, seasonal, stand, and anthropogenic factors. To address multicollinearity, variables with high correlation coefficients were excluded from the independent variables, which were selected by three estimating approaches, including logistic regression and two machine learning techniques (namely, Random Forest and XGBoost). With machine learning, the variables with high feature importance were identified. The explanatory power of the logistic regression analysis with independent variables selected by the machine learning models was about 1.3 times higher than that of the model using variables adjusted solely for multicollinearity. The results of logistic regression analysis revealed that weather and coniferous forests are the most important factors fostering wildfires, while the mean stand age was the most significant factor in hindering wildfires. Among the anthropogenic factors, forest road density acted as a suppressor of wildfire spread rather than a promoter of occurrence. Conversely, trail density tends to increase the risk of wildfire occurrence. Among forest management activities, plantation forests may increase the risk of forest fires, although this remains uncertain. These findings suggest that preventing wildfires requires a paradigm shift in forest resource management policies, including extending forest rotation ages and converting coniferous forests to broadleaf forests. Meanwhile, it also indicates the need to restrict the expansion of hiking trails and improve regulations regarding hiker access and behavior to prevent wildfires. Full article

Accurate substation-level Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for secure day-ahead power-system operation, yet localized demand is often affected by meteorological variation and discrete calendar shifts such as statutory holidays and makeup workdays. At this spatial scale, end-to-end forecasting models may over-smooth abrupt local changes and fail to represent peaks and valleys accurately. To address this issue, this study proposes a Calendar-Aware Frequency-Decoupled Framework (CA-FDF) for 24 h ahead substation load forecasting. The load series is decomposed by the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), and the low-frequency component is tracked by a regime-aware Recursive Least Squares (RLS) filter. The residuals are then refined through explicit calendar-state encoding and day-ahead weather forecasts. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) learns latent weather representations, while SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) interpret calendar- and weather-related effects. Experiments on hourly operational data from 29 anonymized substations in East China show that CA-FDF achieves a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 1.92% and outperforms representative baselines under the same day-ahead setting. The results indicate that frequency-decoupled residual refinement improves localized load forecasting, with calendar-aware correction contributing the largest gain. Full article

The Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) technique provides global ocean surface wind observations unaffected by rainfall with high spatiotemporal resolution. The Fengyun-3E (FY-3E) mission, as the first operational GNSS-R satellite in China, offers low-latency data suitable for numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, the dense along-track sampling of GNSS-R winds poses challenges for observation error specification in data assimilation. In this study, FY-3E GNSS-R winds are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate the impacts of different observation error configurations. Both static and dynamic error specifications, with and without data thinning, are evaluated through a sensitivity experiment and subsequent Observing System Experiments (OSEs). The results indicate that using a static observation error of 6 m/s without data thinning achieves the best performance. Under this configuration, GNSS-R winds influence atmospheric analyses from the surface up to approximately 700 hPa in a single assimilation case, while cycling experiments further extend the impact vertically and spatially. These findings highlight the importance of appropriate observation error specification for dense GNSS-R data and provide a practical reference for their assimilation in WRF, with potential applicability to other NWP systems. Full article

Accurate wind estimation is essential for wind resource assessment. In this study, using scanning lidar measurements and high-resolution WRF simulations from two nearshore areas in Japan, we developed two extensions of the Temporal Correction (TC) method, which corrects wind fields generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using on-site measurements. First, when using a single measurement point for correction, we derived two empirical formulas to predict appropriate correction coefficients based on reference–target correlation coefficients of wind speed obtained from WRF simulations and developed a method (TC-pred) using these formulas. TC-pred was shown to have higher wind speed estimation accuracy and a broader range of applicability than the conventional TC method. Next, we extended the TC-pred method to allow the use of multiple measurement points as references by introducing a weighting formula for each reference point. Wind speed estimation accuracy improved as the number of reference points increased, primarily because the probability of including reference points with high reference–target correlation coefficients increased. This suggests that it is effective for the suppression of wind estimation uncertainty to determine measurement layout such that the correlation coefficient between at least one reference point and each target point in the target area exceeds a certain value. Full article

The ocean–atmosphere turbulent heat exchange plays a critical role in the energy and moisture budgets of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean (TAO) and in weather and climate forecasts. However, its estimation strongly depends on the choice of bulk parameterization, as direct in situ measurements are sparse. This study evaluates sensible (Hs) and latent (Hl) heat fluxes derived from three bulk parameterization schemes used operationally in models at the Brazilian Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC) of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Brazil: the Brazilian Atmospheric Model (BAM), the Modular Ocean Model version 6 (MOM6), and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Using daily in situ observations from seven Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) buoys across the TAO during 1997–2023, we computed monthly mean fluxes and compared them against the Coupled Ocean–atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) algorithm version 3.0b (COARE 3.0b) reference. COARE version 3.6 (COARE 3.6) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5) data were included as additional benchmarks. All offline schemes were forced with identical buoy data, isolating differences in internal physical assumptions. Hl is approximately one order of magnitude larger than Hs across all sites, and inter-scheme differences are substantially larger for Hl (±50 W∙m⁻²) than for Hs (±5 W∙m⁻²). All schemes reproduce the seasonal cycle linked to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migration and trade-wind variability, with correlations generally exceeding 0.8 (p < 0.001) for most buoys. However, systematic magnitude biases remain. The Coordinated Ocean Research Experiments (CORE) bulk formulation implemented in MOM6 (MOM6-CORE) shows high temporal correlation (often r ≈ 1.0) but a persistent negative bias for both Hs and Hl (e.g., B1 Hl bias = −24.0 W∙m⁻²), indicating weaker turbulent exchange relative to COARE 3.0b. BAM overestimates Hs (by 1–3 W∙m⁻²) and underestimates Hl at most northern and southern sites, while the parametrization of the Yonsei University (YSU) implemented in the WRF model (WRF-YSU) amplifies Hs variability intermittently, particularly at the equator (B4). As expected, COARE 3.6 remains the closest to the reference (differences < 1 W∙m⁻² for Hs and <7 W∙m⁻² for Hl; r ≈ 0.99). ERA5 captures temporal variability well (r ≈ 0.7–0.9) but systematically overestimates Hl (positive bias up to +47.6 W∙m⁻² at B7), implying stronger evaporative cooling. Buoy-specific regimes modulate skill. The choice of bulk formulation thus remains a first-order source of uncertainty in turbulent heat flux estimates over the TAO, with direct implications for mixed-layer heat budgets, SST evolution, and coupled ocean–atmosphere variability. MOM6-CORE provides the most consistent performance relative to the COARE reference and emerges as the most robust option for operational applications at CPTEC/INPE. The findings also provide guidance for improving the representation of ocean–atmosphere turbulent exchanges in MONAN (Model for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Prediction), the new Brazilian Earth System Model under development for weather and climate prediction. Full article

The intermittent nature of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power poses significant challenges for grid stability and energy management. Accurate forecasting is crucial for mitigating these challenges, as traditional models such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) often fail to capture the non-linear relationships between weather patterns and energy generation. To address this limitation, this research proposes a machine learning framework leveraging Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for spatial pattern recognition and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) for time-series forecasting. By integrating system design parameters with meteorological data, the framework aims to enhance prediction accuracy. The potential outcomes of this framework are not just improved grid stability, optimized energy storage utilization, and reduced operational costs, but also a significant step towards the efficient integration of renewable energy into the power system, fostering a sense of optimism for the future of renewable energy forecasting. Full article

Accurate forecasting of urban electric vehicle (EV) charging demand is important for power system operation, sustainable transport electrification, and charging infrastructure planning. However, this task remains challenging because EV charging demand is shaped by temporal usage patterns as well as changing relationships among weather conditions, operational factors, and historical charging behavior. Many existing forecasting models treat these explanatory variables mainly as parallel inputs, while their mutual relationships are often predefined, simplified, or left implicit in the temporal learning process. To support AI-driven charging demand management, this study proposes an adaptive graph-based recurrent network (A-GRN) for city-level aggregated EV charging-load forecasting. In the proposed framework, key explanatory variables are represented as feature nodes, and their connections are learned through an adaptive adjacency matrix rather than a fixed spatial topology. The adaptive graph neural network (AGN) module captures feature-level interactions, while a dual-path gated recurrent unit module (DG-GRU) extracts temporal representations from the charging-load sequence. Experiments on a city-level EV charging dataset show that A-GRN outperforms several baseline models, including naive persistence forecasting, GRU, LSTM, BiGRU, TCN, and GCN. Compared with the BiGRU baseline, A-GRN reduces MAE, MSE, and RMSE by 31.36%, 34.65%, and 20.48%, respectively. In the original physical unit, the MAE is reduced from 187.43 kWh to 128.64 kWh, and the RMSE is reduced from 222.69 kWh to 177.08 kWh. The results indicate that feature-level graph learning can improve short-term EV charging-load forecasting, especially when the target is an aggregated urban load rather than the load of a single charging station. The proposed model provides a data-driven forecasting tool for sustainable urban charging demand management, low-carbon transport operation, and charging infrastructure planning. Full article

Diamondback moth (DBM, Plutella xylostella) outbreaks are shaped by delayed meteorological conditions, yet most forecasting models compress weather into a few monthly summaries and provide limited ecological interpretation. We propose MeteoSCOPE, an ontology-aware sparse Perceiver framework for interpretable, multi-horizon retrospective forecasting of DBM abundance from historical pest records and rich meteorological descriptors. Each feature-lag value is encoded as a token carrying feature identity, ecological group, descriptor type, lag position, and seasonal information; in the rich setting, 138 descriptors across 12 months yield 1656 tokens per sample. Sparse cross-attention compresses these tokens into a compact latent representation, while horizon-specific queries produce one- to four-month-ahead forecasts. Attention tensors and a common-plus-residual branch are aggregated into feature-, group-, descriptor-, lag-, horizon-, and residual-level explanations. Using DBM records from Huiyang and Shantou, Guangdong, MeteoSCOPE achieved the strongest overall retrospective performance, with robust gains at Shantou and metric-dependent gains at Huiyang. The explanations identified pest history as the leading attended group at both sites and surfaced site-specific secondary attributions for soil moisture, weather state, wind, soil temperature, and humidity, treated as model evidence rather than causal ecological effects and corroborated by independent occlusion and KernelSHAP analyses. Strict zero-shot cross-site transfer degrades substantially, so prospective field validation and broader multi-site testing remain required before operational deployment. MeteoSCOPE thus provides a transferable methodological framework (not a deployable forecaster) for interpretable analysis of high-dimensional agricultural time series. Full article