Search Results (89)

Flooding poses a major hazard to rapidly urbanising cities in Southeast Asia, and risks are projected to intensify under climate change. Accurate risk assessment, however, is hindered by scarcity of hydrological and topographic data. Focusing on the Lower Prek Thnot River Basin, a peri-urban catchment of Phnom Penh, Cambodia, the study applied the Rainfall–Runoff–Inundation model and systematically augmented inputs: hourly satellite rainfall data, field-surveyed river cross-sections and representation of hydraulic infrastructure such as weirs and pumping. Validation used Sentinel-1 SAR-derived flood-extent maps for the October 2020 event. Scenario comparison shows that rainfall input and channel geometry act synergistically: omitting either degrades performance and spatial realism. The best configuration (Sim. 5) Accuracy = 0.891, Hit Ratio = 0.546 and True Ratio = 0.701 against Sentinel-1, and reproduced inundation upstream of weirs while reducing overestimation in urban districts through pumping emulation. At the study’s 500 m grid, updating land use from 2002 to 2020 had only a minor effect relative to rainfall, geometry and infrastructure. The results demonstrate that targeted data augmentation—combining satellite products, field surveys and operational infrastructure—can deliver robust inundation maps under data scarcity, supporting hazard mapping and resilience-oriented flood management in rapidly urbanising basins. Full article

Understanding urbanization and its impact on flooding and flood risk is crucial to better manage flood risk in the future. This study analyzed land use/land cover changes and how urbanization would impact flooding and flood risk in Kathmandu Valley of Nepal, and assessed flood risk by integrating flood hazards based on hydrologic–hydraulic modeling with the Analytic Hierarchy Process-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (AHP-MCDA) approach. Land cover maps for past years were generated using Landsat satellite images, and land use/land cover maps for future years were projected based on machine learning techniques. Flood simulations were conducted using a rainfall runoff inundation model with land cover maps for different flood scales to analyze the impact of urbanization and land cover changes on flood runoff, flood inundation extent, and flood inundation volume. Then, we comprehensively assessed flood risk by integrating hazard conditions simulated under different land cover conditions using a hydrologic–hydraulic model and the AHP-MCDA approach. The results showed that the flood inundation extent and the peak inundation volume for a 200-year flood may increase in the future by 10.66% and 15.04%, respectively, as a result of urbanization. The results also highlighted that urbanization may lead to an expansion of high-risk and very-high-risk areas in the future by 3.2% and 9.4%, respectively, indicating an increase in the valley’s flood vulnerability and greater severity of flood hazards. Full article

Former coal mining in the Ruhr area of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, leads to significant challenges in flood management due to drainless sinks in urban areas caused by ground depression. Consequently, pumping stations have been constructed to enable the drainage of incoming river discharge, preventing overland flooding. However, in the event of the failure of pumping stations, these areas are exposed to a higher flood risk. To address this issue, a methodology has been developed to assess the probability of pumping failures by identifying the most significant failure mechanisms and integrating them into a Bayesian network. To evaluate the impact on the flood inundation probability, a new approach is applied that defines pump failure scenarios depending on available pump discharge capacity and integrates them into a flood inundation probability map. The result is a method to estimate the flood inundation probability stemming from pumping failure, which allows the integration of internal failure mechanisms (e.g., technical or electronic failure) as well as external failure mechanisms (e.g., sedimentation or heavy rainfall). Therefore, authorities can assess the most probable pumping failures and their impact on flood risk management strategies. Full article

Urban flood damage is increasing globally, particularly in major cities. Factors contributing to flood risk include urban environmental changes, such as watershed development and precipitation variations caused by climate change. Rapid urbanization and weather anomalies further complicate flood management and damage mitigation. Additionally, detailed analyses at small spatial units (e.g., roads, buildings) remain insufficient. Hence, urban flood analysis considering such spatial variations is required. This study analyzed flood risk in Ulsan, Korea, under a severe flood scenario. Land cover changes from the 1980s to 2010s were examined in 10-year intervals, along with the frequency of heavy rainfall and high river water levels that trigger severe floods. Flood risk was structured as a matrix of likelihood and impact. The results revealed that land cover changes, influenced by development policies or regulations, had a minimal impact on urban flood risk, which is likely because effective drainage systems and stringent urban planning regulations mitigated their effects. However, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events had a substantial effect. These findings were validated using a comparative analysis of an inundation damage trace map and flood range simulated by a physical model. The 10 m grid resolution and time-series likelihood-and-impact framework used in this study can inform budget allocation, resource mobilization, disaster prevention planning, and decision-making during disaster response efforts in major cities. Full article

This study presents a novel bivariate-output deep learning framework based on LeNet-5 for the simultaneous prediction of urban flood susceptibility and inundation depth in Seoul, South Korea. Unlike previous studies that relied on single-output models, the proposed approach jointly learns classification and regression targets through a shared feature extraction structure, enhancing consistency and generalization. Among six tested architectures, the Le5SD_CBAM model—integrating a Convolutional Block Attention Module (CBAM)—achieved the best performance, with 83% accuracy, an Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) of 0.91 for flood susceptibility classification, and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.12 m and root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.18 m for depth estimation. The model’s spatial predictions aligned well with hydrological principles and past flood records, accurately identifying low-lying flood-prone zones and capturing localized inundation patterns influenced by infrastructure and micro-topography. Importantly, it detected spatial mismatches between susceptibility and depth, demonstrating the benefit of joint modeling. Variable importance analysis highlighted elevation as the dominant predictor, while distances to roads, rivers, and drainage systems were also key contributors. In contrast, secondary terrain attributes had limited influence, indicating that urban infrastructure has significantly altered natural flood flow dynamics. Although the model lacks dynamic forcings such as rainfall and upstream inflows, it remains a valuable tool for flood risk mapping in data-scarce settings. The bivariate-output framework improves computational efficiency and internal coherence compared to separate single-task models, supporting its integration into urban flood management and planning systems. Full article

Effective flood management in agricultural fields has become increasingly important due to the rising frequency and intensity of rainfall events driven by climate change. This study investigates the applicability of urban flood analysis models—SWMM (1D) and K-Flood (2D)—to irrigated agricultural fields with artificial drainage systems. A case study was conducted in a rural area near the Sindae drainage station in Cheongju, South Korea, using rainfall data from an extreme weather event in 2017. The models simulated inland flooding and were validated against flood trace maps provided by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (MOIS). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis showed a true positive rate of 0.565, a false positive rate of 0.21, and an overall accuracy of 0.731, indicating reasonable agreement with observed inundation. Scenario analyses were also conducted to assess the effectiveness of three improvement strategies: reducing the Manning coefficient, increasing pump station capacity, and widening drainage channels. Among them, increasing pump capacity most effectively reduced flood volume, while channel widening had the greatest impact on reducing flood extent. These findings demonstrate the potential of urban flood models for application in agricultural contexts and support data-driven planning for rural flood mitigation. Full article

Accurate and timely flood mapping is critical for informing emergency response and risk mitigation during extreme weather events. This study presents a synthetic aperture radar (SAR)-based approach for rapid flood extent mapping using Sentinel-1 imagery, demonstrated for Tropical Storm Imelda (17–21 September 2019) in southeastern Texas. Dual-polarization Sentinel-1 SAR data (VH and VV) were processed by computing the VH/VV backscatter ratio, and the resulting ratio image was classified using a supervised Random Forest classifier to delineate water and land. All Sentinel-1 images underwent radiometric calibration, speckle noise filtering, and terrain correction to ensure precision in flood delineation. The Random Forest classifier achieved an overall flood mapping accuracy exceeding 94%, with Cohen’s kappa coefficients of approximately 0.75–0.80, demonstrating the approach’s reliability in distinguishing transient floodwaters from permanent water bodies. The spatial distribution of flooding was strongly influenced by topography and land cover. Analysis of Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation data revealed that low-lying, flat terrain was most vulnerable to inundation; correspondingly, the land cover types most affected were hay/pasture, cultivated land, and emergent wetlands. Additionally, urban areas with low-intensity development experienced extensive flooding, attributed to impervious surfaces exacerbating runoff. A strong, statistically significant correlation (R² = 0.87, p < 0.01) was observed between precipitation and flood extent, indicating that heavier rainfall led to greater inundation; accordingly, the areas with the highest rainfall totals (e.g., Jefferson and Chambers counties) experienced the most extensive flooding, as confirmed by SAR-based change detection. The proposed approach eliminates the need for manual threshold selection, thereby reducing misclassification errors due to speckle noise and land cover heterogeneity. Harnessing globally available Sentinel-1 data with near-real-time processing and a robust classifier, this approach provides a scalable solution for rapid flood monitoring. These findings underscore the potential of SAR-based flood mapping under adverse weather conditions, thereby contributing to improved disaster preparedness and resilience in flood-prone regions. Full article

This study investigates how urban decline and intensifying flood hazards interact to threaten Japan’s urban environments, focusing on three main dimensions. First, a fine-scale analysis of spatial shrinkage was conducted using transition potential maps generated with a maximum entropy classifier. This approach enabled the identification of neighborhoods at high risk of future abandonment, revealing that peripheral districts, such as Hirakue-cho and Shimoirino-cho, are especially susceptible due to their distance from central amenities. Second, this study analyzed the 2019 Naka River flood induced by Typhoon Hagibis, evaluating water detection performance through both a U-Net-based deep learning model applied to Sentinel-1 SAR imagery in ArcGIS Pro and the DioVISTA Flood Simulator. While the SAR-based approach excelled in achieving high accuracy with a score of 0.81, the simulation-based method demonstrated higher sensitivity, emphasizing its effectiveness in flagging potential flood zones. Third, forward-looking scenarios under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate trajectories were modeled to capture the potential scope of future flood impacts. The primary signal is that flooding impacts 3.2 km² of buildings and leaves 11 of 82 evacuation sites vulnerable in the worst-case scenario. Japan’s proven disaster expertise can still jolt adaptation toward greater flexibility. Adaptive frameworks utilizing real-time and predictive insights powered by remote sensing, GIS, and machine intelligence form the core of proactive decision-making. By prioritizing the repositioning of decaying suburbs as disaster prevention hubs, steadily advancing hard and soft measures to deployment, supported by the reliability of DioVISTA as a flood simulator, and fueling participatory, citizen-led ties within a community, resilience shifts from a reactive shield to a living ecosystem, aiming for zero victims. Full article

Riverine coastal megacities, particularly in semi-arid South Asian regions, face escalating environmental challenges due to rapid urbanization and climate change. While previous studies have examined urban growth patterns or environmental impacts independently, there remains a critical gap in understanding the integrated impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on both ecosystem vulnerability and sustainable development achievements. This study addresses this gap through an innovative integration of multitemporal Landsat imagery (5, 7, and 8), SRTM-DEM, historical land use maps, and population data using the MOLUSCE plugin with cellular automata–artificial neural networks (CA-ANN) modelling to monitor LULC changes over three decades (1990–2020) and project future changes for 2025, 2030, and 2035, supporting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Karachi, southern Pakistan, one of the world’s most populous megacities. The framework integrates LULC analysis with SDG metrics, achieving an overall accuracy greater than 97%, with user and producer accuracies above 77% and a Kappa coefficient approaching 1, demonstrating a high level of agreement. Results revealed significant urban expansion from 13.4% to 23.7% of the total area between 1990 and 2020, with concurrent reductions in vegetation cover, water bodies, and wetlands. Erosion along the riverbank has caused the Malir River’s area to decrease from 17.19 to 5.07 km² by 2020, highlighting a key factor contributing to urban flooding during the monsoon season. Flood risk projections indicate that urbanized areas will be most affected, with 66.65% potentially inundated by 2035. This study’s innovative contribution lies in quantifying SDG achievements, showing varied progress: 26% for SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), 18% for SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), 13% for SDG 13 (Climate Action), and 16% for SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). However, declining vegetation cover and water bodies pose challenges for SDG 15 (Life on Land) and SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), with 16% and 11%, respectively. This integrated approach provides valuable insights for urban planners, offering a novel framework for adaptive urban planning strategies and advancing sustainable practices in similar stressed megacity regions. Full article

In post-flood disaster analysis, accurate flood mapping in complex riverine urban areas is critical for effective flood risk management. Recent studies have explored the use of water-related spectral indices derived from satellite imagery combined with machine learning (ML) models to achieve this purpose. However, relying solely on spectral indices can lead these models to overlook crucial urban contextual features, making it difficult to distinguish inundated areas from other similar features like shadows or wet roads. To address this, our research explores a novel approach to improve flood segmentation by integrating a row-wise cross attention (CA) module with ML ensemble learning. We apply this method to the analysis of the Brisbane Floods of 2022, utilizing 4-band satellite imagery from PlanetScope and derived spectral indices. Applied as a pre-processing step, the CA module fuses a spectral band index into each band of a peak-flood satellite image using a row-wise operation. This process amplifies subtle differences between floodwater and other urban characteristics while preserving complete landscape information. The CA-fused datasets are then fed into our proposed ensemble model, which is constructed using four classic ML models. A soft voting strategy averages their binary predictions to determine the final classification for each pixel. Our research demonstrates that CA datasets can enhance the sensitivity of individual ML models to floodwater in complex riverine urban areas, generally improving flood mapping accuracy. The experimental results reveal that the ensemble model achieves high accuracy (approaching 100%) on each CA dataset. However, this may be affected by overfitting, which indicates that evaluating the model on additional datasets may lead to reduced accuracy. This study encourages further research to optimize the model and validate its generalizability in various urban contexts. Full article

Deep learning (DL) approaches to forecast precipitation and inundation areas in the short-term forecast horizon have up until now been treated as independent research problems from the model development perspective. However, for the urban hydrology area, the coupling of these models is necessary in order to forecast the upcoming inundation area maps and is, therefore, of the utmost importance for successful flood risk management. In this paper, three deep-learning-based models are coupled in a systematic modular approach with the aim to analyze the performance of this model chain in an operative setup for urban pluvial flooding nowcast: precipitation nowcasting with an adapted version of the NowcastNet model, the forecast of manhole overflow hydrographs with a Seq2Seq model, and the generation of a spatiotemporal sequence of inundation areas in an urban catchment for the upcoming hour with an encoder–decoder model. It can be concluded that the forecast quality still largely depends on the accuracy of the precipitation nowcasting model. With the increasing development of DL models for both precipitation and flood nowcasting, the presented modular approach for model coupling enables the substitution of individual blocks for better and newer models in the model chain without jeopardizing the operation of the flooding forecast system. Full article

Floods pose significant challenges globally, particularly in coastal regions like the Philippines, which are vulnerable to typhoons and subsequent inundations. This study focuses on Naic city in Cavite, Philippines, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to develop flood risk maps employing two Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods including Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). These maps integrate hazard, vulnerability, and exposure assessments to identify structures most vulnerable to flooding. Weight assignments in the study are derived from a literature review and expert opinions, reflecting the Philippines’ flood-prone geography and historical data. Structural attributes, categorized on a low to very high scale, were assessed based on field survey data from 555 buildings. AHP categorized 91.3% of buildings as moderate to very high risk, whereas TOPSIS placed 68% in this category, underscoring methodological disparities in data handling and assumptions. This research enhances understanding of flood threats and offers a decision-making framework for resilient flood risk management strategies. Identifying vulnerable buildings aims to support informed urban planning and disaster preparedness in flood-prone areas, thereby mitigating potential property, infrastructure, and livelihood damage. Full article

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) technology has become an important means of flood monitoring because of its large coverage, repeated observation, and all-weather and all-time working capabilities. The commonly used thresholding and change detection methods in emergency monitoring can quickly and simply detect floods. However, these methods still have some problems: (1) thresholding methods are easily affected by low backscattering regions and speckle noise; (2) changes from multi-temporal information include urban renewal and seasonal variation, reducing the precision of flood monitoring. To solve these problems, this paper presents a new flood mapping framework that combines semi-automatic thresholding and change detection. First, multiple lines across land and water are drawn manually, and their local optimal thresholds are calculated automatically along these lines from two ends towards the middle. Using the average of these thresholds, the low backscattering regions are extracted to generate a preliminary inundation map. Then, the neighborhood-based change detection method combined with entropy thresholding is adopted to detect the changed areas. Finally, pixels in both the low backscattering regions and the changed regions are marked as inundated terrain. Two flood datasets, one from Sentinel-1 in the Wharfe and Ouse River basin and another from GF-3 in Chaohu are chosen to verify the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed method. Full article

Frequent flooding seriously affects people’s safety and economic construction, and assessing the inundation probability can help to strengthen the capacity of emergency management of floods. There are currently two general means of flood sensing: physical and social. Remote sensing data feature high reliability but are often unavailable in disasters caused by persistent heavy rainfall. Social media is characterized by high timeliness and a large data volume but has high redundancy and low reliability. The existing studies have primarily relied on physical sensing data and have not fully exploited the potential of social media data. This paper combines traditional physical sensing data with social media and proposes an integrated physical and social sensing (IPS) method to estimate the probability distribution of flood inundation. Taking the “7·20” Henan rainstorm in 2021 and the study area of Xinxiang, China, as a case study, more than 60,000 messages and 1900 images about this occurrence were acquired from the Weibo platform. Taking filtered water depth points with their geographic location and water depth information as the main input, the inverse distance attenuation function was used to calculate the inundation potential layer of the whole image. Then, the Gaussian kernel was used to weight the physical sensing data based on each water depth point, and finally, the submergence probability layer of the whole image was enhanced. In the validation of the results using radar and social media points, accuracies of 88.77% and 75% were obtained by setting up a threshold classification, demonstrating the effectiveness and usefulness of the method. The significance of this study lies in obtaining discrete social media flood points and achieving space-continuous flood inundation probability mapping, providing decision-making support for urban flood diagnosis and mitigation. Full article

Urbanization and climate change pose a critical challenge to stormwater management, particularly in rapidly developing cities. These cities experience increasingly impervious surfaces and more intense rainfall events. This study investigates the effectiveness of the existing drainage system in Lahore, Pakistan, a megacity challenged by rapid urbanization and the impacts of climate change. To address the lack of predefined storm patterns and limited historical rainfall records, we employed a well-established yet adaptable methodology. This methodology utilizes the log-Pearson type III (LPT-III) distribution and alternating block method (ABM) to create design hyetographs for various return periods. This study applied the stormwater management model (SWMM) to a representative community of 2.71 km² to assess its drainage system capacity. Additionally, geographic information systems (GISs) were used for spatial analysis of flood risk mapping to identify flood-prone zones. The results indicate that the current drainage system, designed for a 2-year return period, is inadequate. For example, a 2-year storm produced a total flood volume of 0.07 million gallons, inundating approximately 60% of the study area. This study identified flood risk zones and highlighted the limitations of the system in handling future, more intense rainfall events. This study emphasizes the urgent need for infrastructure improvements to handle increased runoff volumes such as the integration of low-impact development practices. These nature-based solutions enhance infiltration, reduce runoff, and improve water quality, offering a sustainable approach to mitigating flood risks. Importantly, this study demonstrates that integrating LPT-III and ABM provides a robust and adaptable methodology for flood risk assessment. This approach is particularly effective in developing countries where data scarcity and diverse rainfall patterns may hinder traditional storm modeling techniques. Our findings reveal that the current drainage system is overwhelmed, with a 2-year storm exceeding its capacity resulting in extensive flooding, affecting over half of the area. The application of LPT-III and ABM improved the flood risk assessment by enabling the creation of more realistic design hyetographs for data-scarce regions, leading to more accurate identification of flood-prone areas. Full article