Search Results (155)

Recent years have seen frequent heavy rainfall events in Japan, often linked to Baiu fronts and typhoons. These events are exacerbated by global warming, leading to an increased frequency and intensity. As floods represent a serious threat to sustainable urban development and community resilience, this study contributes to sustainability-focused risk reduction through integrated analysis. This study focuses on the 2 June 2023 heavy rain disaster in Toyohashi City, Japan, which caused extensive damage due to flooding from the Yagyu and Umeda Rivers. Using numerical models, this study accurately reproduces flooding patterns, revealing that high tides amplified the inundation area by 1.5 times at the Yagyu River. A resident questionnaire conducted in collaboration with Toyohashi City identifies key trends in evacuation behavior and disaster information usage. Traditional media such as TV remain dominant, but younger generations leverage electronic devices for disaster updates. These insights emphasize the need for targeted information dissemination and enhanced disaster preparedness strategies, including online materials and flexible training programs. The methods and findings presented in this study can inform local and regional governments in building adaptive disaster management policies, which contribute to a more sustainable society. Full article

Landslides are among the most hazardous natural phenomena affecting Greater Abidjan, causing significant economic and social damage. Strategic planning supported by geographic information systems (GIS) can help mitigate potential losses and enhance disaster resilience. This study evaluates landslide susceptibility using logistic regression and frequency ratio models. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising 54 mapped landslide scarps collected from June 2015 to July 2023, along with 16 thematic predictor variables, including altitude, slope, aspect, profile curvature, plan curvature, drainage area, distance to the drainage network, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and an urban-related layer. A high-resolution (5-m) digital elevation model (DEM), derived from multiple data sources, supports the spatial analysis. The landslide inventory was randomly divided into two subsets: 80% for model calibration and 20% for validation. After optimization and statistical testing, the selected thematic layers were integrated to produce a susceptibility map. The results indicate that 6.3% (0.7 km²) of the study area is classified as very highly susceptible. The proportion of the sample (61.2%) in this class had a frequency ratio estimated to be 20.2. Among the predictive indicators, altitude, slope, SE, S, NW, and NDVI were found to have a positive impact on landslide occurrence. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), demonstrating strong predictive capability. These findings can support informed land-use planning and risk reduction strategies in urban areas. Furthermore, the prediction model should be communicated to and understood by local authorities to facilitate disaster management. The cost function was adopted as a novel approach to delineate hazardous zones. Considering the landslide inventory period, the increasing hazard due to climate change, and the intensification of human activities, a reasoned choice of sample size was made. This informed decision enabled the production of an updated prediction map. Optimal thresholds were then derived to classify areas into high- and low-susceptibility categories. The prediction map will be useful to planners in helping them make decisions and implement protective measures. Full article

Urban subsurface pipeline bursts can induce catastrophic cascading effects, including ground collapse, infrastructure failure, and socioeconomic losses. However, stratum responses during the erosion cavity expansion phase and corresponding disaster mitigation strategies have rarely been researched. In this study, a numerical model validated through experimental tests was employed to investigate the effects of internal water pressures, burial depths, and different geotextile-based disaster mitigation strategies. It was revealed that a burial depth-dependent critical internal water pressure governed the erosion cavity expansion, and a predictive equation was derived based on the limit equilibrium theory. Higher internal water pressure accelerated the erosion cavity expansion and amplified the stratum stress within a range of twice the diameter D. Increased burial depth $d$ reduced peak ground heave but linearly expanded the heave zone range, concurrently elevating the overall stratum stress level and generating larger stress reduction zones (i.e., when $d/D$ = 3.0, the range of the stress reduction zone was 8.0D). All geotextile layout configurations exhibited different disaster mitigation effects (the peak ground heave was reduced by at least 15%). The semi-circular closely fitted configuration (SCCF) optimally restricted the expansion of the erosion cavity, reduced the stratum displacement (i.e., 39% reduction in the peak ground heave), and avoided stress concentration. Comprehensive analysis indicated that SCCF was suited for low-pressure pipelines in deformation-sensitive stratum and semi-circular configuration (SC) was suitable for deformation-insensitive pipeline sections. These findings provide actionable insights for tailoring mitigation strategies to specific operational risks. Full article

This study investigates rural settlement patterns and land suitability in Rwanda’s Western Highlands, a mountainous region highly vulnerable to geohazards like landslides and flooding. Its primary aim is to inform sustainable, climate-resilient development planning in this fragile landscape. We employed high-resolution satellite imagery, a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and comprehensive geospatial datasets to analyze settlement distribution, using Thiessen polygons for influence zones and Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) for spatial clustering. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was integrated with the GeoDetector model to objectively weight criteria and analyze settlement pattern drivers, using population density as a proxy for human pressure. The analysis revealed significant spatial heterogeneity in settlement distribution, with both clustered and dispersed forms exhibiting distinct exposure levels to environmental hazards. Natural factors, particularly slope gradient and proximity to rivers, emerged as dominant determinants. Furthermore, significant synergistic interactions were observed between environmental attributes and infrastructure accessibility (roads and urban centers), collectively shaping settlement resilience. This integrative geospatial approach enhances understanding of complex rural settlement dynamics in ecologically sensitive mountainous regions. The empirically grounded insights offer a robust decision-support framework for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction, contributing to more resilient rural planning strategies in Rwanda and similar Central African highland regions. Full article

The increasing number of natural and man-made disasters registered at the global level is causing a significant amount of damage. This represents one of the main sustainability challenges at the global level. The collapse of the Twin Towers, Hurricane Katrina, and the nuclear accident at the Fukushima power plant are some of the most representative disaster events that occurred at the beginning of the third millennium. These relevant disasters need an enhanced level of preparedness to reduce the gaps between the plan and its implementation. Among these actions, training and exercises play a relevant role because they increase the capability of planners, managers, and the people involved. By focusing on the exposure risk component, the general objective of the research is to obtain quantitative evaluations of the exercise’s contribution to risk reduction through evacuation. The paper aims to analyze serious games using a set of methods and models that simulate an urban risk reduction plan. In particular, the paper proposes a transparent framework that merges transport risk analysis (TRA) and transport system models (TSMs), developing serious game activities with the support of emerging information and communication technologies (e-ICT). Transparency is possible through the explicitation of reproducible analytical formulations and linked parameters. The core framework of serious games is constituted by a set of models that reproduce the effects of players’ choices, including planned actions of decisionmakers and travel users’ choices. The framework constitutes the prototype of a digital platform in a “non-stressful” context aimed at providing more insights about the effects of planned actions. The proposed framework is characterized by transparency, a feature that allows other analysts and planners to reproduce each risk scenario, by applying TRA and relative effects simulations in territorial contexts by means of TSMs and parameters updated by e-ICT. A basic experimentation is performed by using a game, presenting the main results of a prototype test based on a reproducible exercise. The prototype experiment demonstrates the efficacy of increasing preparedness levels and reducing exposure by designing and implementing a serious game. The paper’s methodology and results are useful for policymakers, emergency managers, and the community for increasing the preparedness level. Full article

Extreme rainfall events driven by climate change are increasing flood risks. Addressing flood mitigation solely from either a hydraulic engineering or urban planning perspective may overlook both feasibility and effectiveness. This study focuses on Tainan City and the Tainan Science Park in Taiwan, applying the NbS framework to assess flood mitigation strategies. From an urban planning perspective, Agricultural Development Zone Type II (Agri-DZII), parks, green spaces, and Taiwan Sugar Corporation (TSC) land were selected as flood detention sites. Hydraulic modeling was used to evaluate their effectiveness under both current and climate-change-induced rainfall conditions. Simulation results show that under current rainfall conditions, flood mitigation measures reduced inundated areas with depths exceeding 2.0 m by up to 7.8% citywide and 20.8% within the Tainan Science Park Special District Plan Area. However, under climate change scenarios, the reduction effects declined significantly, with maximum reductions of only 1.6% and 17.8%, respectively. Results indicate that, even when utilizing all available detention areas, the overall flood reduction in Tainan City remains limited. However, TSC agri-land within the Tainan Science Park overlaps with high-flood-risk zones, demonstrating significant local flood mitigation potential. This study recommends integrating hydrological analysis into urban planning to prevent high-density residential and economic zones from being designated in flood-prone areas. Additionally, policymakers should consider reserving appropriate land for flood detention to enhance climate resilience. By combining urban planning and hydraulic engineering perspectives, this study highlights the flexibility of NbS in disaster management, advocating for the integration of Natural Water Detention Measures into flood adaptation strategies to improve urban water management and climate adaptability. Full article

Critical transportation networks in developing countries often lack structural robustness and functional redundancy due to insufficient planning and preparedness. These deficiencies increase vulnerability to disruptions and impede effective post-disaster response and recovery. Understanding how such networks perform under stress is essential to improving resilience in hazard-prone urban environments. This paper presents an integrated predictive methodology for assessing the operational resilience of urban transportation networks under extreme events, specifically tailored to data-scarce and high-risk contexts. By combining Geographic Information Systems (GISs) with complex network theory, the framework captures both spatial and topological dependencies. The methodology is applied to Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, a densely populated and disaster-prone Mediterranean city, through scenario-based simulations that account for interdependent stressors such as traffic dynamics, structural fragility, and geophysical hazards. Results reveal that the network exhibits low redundancy and high sensitivity to even minor disruptions, leading to rapid performance degradation. These findings indicate that the network should be classified as highly vulnerable. The study offers a robust framework for assessing infrastructure resilience and supporting evidence-based decision-making in critical urban network management. Full article

Urbanization and climate change have disrupted natural water circulation by increasing impervious surfaces and altering rainfall patterns, leading to reduced groundwater infiltration, deteriorating water quality, and heightened flood risks. This study investigates the application of Low Impact Development (LID) and flood control facilities as structural measures to address these challenges in the upper watershed of the Fucha River in Bogotá, Colombia. The methodology involved analyzing watershed characteristics, defining circulation problems, setting hydrological targets, selecting facility types and locations, evaluating performance, and conducting an economic analysis. To manage the target rainfall of $26.5$$\mathrm{m}$$\mathrm{m}$ under normal conditions, LID facilities such as vegetated swales, rain gardens, infiltration channels, and porous pavements were applied, managing approximately 2362 ${\mathrm{m}}^3$ of runoff. For flood control, five detention tanks were proposed, resulting in a 31.8% reduction in peak flow and a 7.3% decrease in total runoff volume. The flooded area downstream was reduced by $46.8$$\mathrm{h}\mathrm{a}$, and the benefit–cost ratio was calculated at 1.02. These findings confirm that strategic application of LID and detention facilities can contribute to effective urban water cycle management and disaster risk reduction. While the current disaster management approach in Bogotá primarily focuses on post-event response, this study highlights the necessity of transitioning toward proactive disaster preparedness. In particular, the introduction and expansion of flood forecasting and warning systems are recommended as non-structural measures, especially in urban areas with complex infrastructure and climate-sensitive hydrology. Full article

Urbanization is rapidly transforming cities, especially in the Global South, with Sub-Saharan Africa expected to see the fastest growth in the next 30 years. In South Africa’s Mopani District, this urban expansion has led to the growth of informal settlements, increasing disaster risks related to water, health, and fire. This study focuses on Giyani Local Municipality, examining disaster risks in its informal settlements and the factors influencing the implementation of spatial planning tools. Using a SWOT analysis combined with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), the study found that while the municipality has strong land use and disaster management policies, poor enforcement, lack of integration, and weak governance limit their effectiveness. Opportunities for improvement include securing grants from the National Government and Disaster Management Centre to support disaster risk reduction (DRR) initiatives. However, challenges such as land shortages and ecological degradation threaten sustainable planning. The findings provide important insights for policymakers, urban planners, and disaster management professionals. The SWOT-AHP approach helps in prioritizing resource allocation, identifying risk trends, and focusing on key areas for mitigation. Overall, the study supports efforts to enhance resilience and promote sustainable urban development in informal settlements through better spatial planning. Full article

Coastal cities are increasingly exposed to the risks posed by climate change, including rising sea levels, intensified storms, and coastal erosion. In this context, risk communication plays a crucial role, as it can shape public perception, promote preparedness, and influence both emergency responses and long-term mitigation strategies. This study investigated how disaster-related risks are framed in the media, focusing on the case of Naples, Italy, following a severe coastal storm surge that struck the city’s waterfront on December 2020. Using Dynamic Latent Dirichlet Allocation (DLDA), the research analyzed 297 newspaper articles published between 2020 and 2024 to examine the evolution of media narratives over time. The findings reveal four dominant patterns: (1) a prevailing economic discourse centered on financial damages and compensations, with limited references to resilience planning; (2) a temporal framing that presents the storm as a sudden, exceptional event, disconnected from historical precedents or future climate projections; (3) a lack of emphasis on the social experiences and vulnerabilities of local residents; and (4) minimal discussion of tourists’ exposure to risk, despite their presence in high-impact areas. These results highlight key limitations of media-driven risk communication and underscore the need for more inclusive, forward-looking narratives to support urban resilience and climate adaptation in coastal cities. This research offers valuable insights for urban planners, policymakers, journalists, and disaster risk reduction professionals, helping them to better align communication strategies with long-term adaptation goals and the needs of diverse urban populations. Full article

The reduction in disaster risk in urban regions due to natural hazards (e.g., earthquakes, landslides, floods, and tropical cyclones) is primarily a development matter that must be treated within the scope of a broader urban development framework. Natural hazard assessment is one of the turning points in mitigating disaster risk, which typically contributes to stronger urban resilience and more sustainable urban development. Regarding this challenge, our research proposes a new approach in the signal processing chain and feature extraction from microtremor data that focuses mainly on the Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) so as to assess liquefaction potential as a natural hazard using AI. The key raw seismic features of site amplification and resonance are extracted from the data via bandpass filtering, Fourier Transformation (FT), the calculation of the HVSR, and smoothing through the use of moving averages. The main novelty is the integration of machine learning, particularly stacked ensemble learning, for liquefaction potential classification from imbalanced seismic datasets. For this approach, several models are used to consider class imbalance, enhancing classification performance and offering better insight into liquefaction risk based on microtremor data. Then, the paper proposes a liquefaction detection method based on deep learning with an autoencoder and stacked classifiers. The autoencoder compresses data into the latent space, underlining the liquefaction features classified by the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) classifier and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) classifier, and the meta-model combines these outputs to put special emphasis on rare liquefaction events. This proposed methodology improved the detection of an imbalanced dataset, although challenges remain in both interpretability and computational complexity. We created a synthetic dataset of 1000 samples using realistic feature ranges that mimic the Rif data region to test model performance and conduct sensitivity analysis. Key seismic and geotechnical variables were included, confirming the amplification factor (Af) and seismic vulnerability index ($K_g$) as dominant predictors and supporting model generalizability in data-scarce regions. Our proposed method for liquefaction potential classification achieves 100% classification accuracy, 100% precision, and 100% recall, providing a new baseline. Compared to existing models such as XGB and MLP, the proposed model performs better in all metrics. This new approach could become a critical component in assessing liquefaction hazard, contributing to disaster mitigation and urban planning. Full article

The northern foothills of the Qinling Mountains, a critical ecological barrier and urban–rural transition zone in China, face intensifying rainstorm–flood disasters under climate extremes and rapid urbanization. This study pioneers a remote sensing-driven, dynamically coupled framework by integrating multi-source satellite data, system resilience theory, and spatial modeling to develop a novel “risk identification–resilience assessment–scenario simulation” chain. This framework quantitatively evaluates the nonlinear response mechanisms of town–village systems to flood disasters, emphasizing the synergistic effects of spatial scale, morphology, and functional organization. The proposed framework uniquely integrates three innovative modules: (1) a hybrid risk identification engine combining normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) temporal anomaly detection and spatiotemporal hotspot analysis; (2) a morpho-functional resilience quantification model featuring a newly developed spatial morphological resilience index (SMRI) that synergizes landscape compactness, land-use diversity, and ecological connectivity through the entropy-weighted analytic hierarchy process (AHP); and (3) a dynamic scenario simulator embedding rainfall projections into a coupled hydrodynamic model. Key advancements over existing methods include the multi-temporal SMRI and the introduction of a nonlinear threshold response function to quantify “safe-fail” adaptation capacities. Scenario simulations reveal a reduction in flood losses under ecological priority strategies, outperforming conventional engineering-based solutions by resilience gain. The proposed zoning strategy prioritizing ecological restoration, infrastructure hardening, and community-based resilience units provides a scalable framework for disaster-adaptive spatial planning, underpinned by remote sensing-driven dynamic risk mapping. This work advances the application of satellite-aided geospatial analytics in balancing ecological security and socioeconomic resilience across complex terrains. Full article

The Henan section of the Yellow River Basin (3.62 × 10⁴ km², 21.7% of Henan Province), a vital agro-industrial and politico-economic hub, faces frequent rainfall-induced geohazards. The 2021 “7·20” Zhengzhou disaster, causing 398 fatalities and CNY 120.06 billion loss, highlights its vulnerability to extreme weather. While machine learning (ML) aids geohazard assessment, rainfall-induced geological hazard susceptibility assessment (RGHSA) remains understudied, with single ML models lacking interpretability and precision for complex disaster data. This study presents a hybrid framework (IVM-ML) that integrates the Information Value Model (IVM) and ML. The framework uses historical disaster data and 11 factors (e.g., rainfall erosivity, relief amplitude) to calculate information values and construct a machine learning prediction model with these quantitative results. By combining IVM’s spatial analysis with ML’s predictive power, it addresses the limitations of conventional single models. ROC curve validation shows the Random Forest (RF) model in IVM-ML achieves the highest accuracy (AUC = 0.9599), outperforming standalone IVM (AUC = 0.7624). All models exhibit AUC values exceeding 0.75, demonstrating strong capability in capturing rainfall–hazard relationships and reliable predictive performance. Findings support RGHSA practices in the mid-Yellow River urban cluster, offering insights for sustainable risk management, land-use planning, and climate resilience. Bridging geoscience and data-driven methods, this study advances global sustainability goals for disaster reduction and environmental security in vulnerable riverine regions. Full article

This study proposes a non-contact method for assessing building inclination and damage by integrating 3D point cloud data with image recognition techniques. Conventional approaches, such as plumb bobs, require physical contact, posing safety risks and practical challenges, especially in densely built urban areas. The proposed method utilizes a 3D scanner to capture point cloud data and images, which are processed to extract building surfaces, detect inclination, and assess secondary structural components such as window frames. Experiments were conducted on prefabricated structures, detached houses, and dense residential areas to validate the method’s accuracy. Results show that the proposed approach achieved measurement accuracy comparable to or better than traditional methods, with an error reduction of approximately 19% in prefabricated structures and 21.72% in detached houses. Additionally, the method successfully identified window frame deformations, contributing to a comprehensive assessment of structural integrity. By applying gradient-based color mapping, damage severity was visualized intuitively. The findings demonstrate that this system can replace conventional measurement techniques, enabling safe, efficient, and large-scale post-disaster assessments. Future work will focus on enhancing point cloud interpolation and refining machine learning-based damage classification for broader applicability. Full article

With the intensification of global climate change, the frequent occurrence of typhoon disaster events has become a great challenge to the sustainable development of cities around the world; thus, it is of great significance to carry out the assessment of typhoon-directed economic losses. Typhoon disaster loss assessment faces key challenges, including complex regional environments, scarce historical data, difficulties in multi-source heterogeneous data fusion, and challenges in quantifying assessment uncertainties. Meanwhile, existing studies often overlook the complex relationship between the spatial expansion of urban and rural construction (SEURC) and typhoon disaster losses, particularly their differential manifestations across different regions and disaster intensities. To address these issues, this study proposes CLPFT (Comprehensive Uncertainty Assessment Framework for Typhoon), an innovative assessment framework integrating prototype learning and uncertainty quantification through a UProtoMLP neural network. Results demonstrate three key findings: (1) By introducing prototype learning, a meta-learning approach, to guide model updates, we achieved precise assessments with small training samples, attaining an MAE of 1.02, representing 58.5–76.1% error reduction compared to conventional machine learning algorithms. This reveals that implicitly classifying typhoon disaster loss types through prototype learning can significantly improve assessment accuracy in data-scarce scenarios. (2) By designing a dual-path uncertainty quantification mechanism, we realized high-reliability risk assessment, with 95.45% of actual loss values falling within predicted confidence intervals (theoretical expectation: 95%). This demonstrates that the dual-path uncertainty quantification mechanism can provide statistically credible risk boundaries for disaster prevention decisions, significantly enhancing the practical utility of assessment results. (3) Further investigation through controlling dynamic assessment factors revealed significant regional heterogeneity in the relationship between SEURC and directed economic losses. Furthermore, the study found that when typhoon intensity reaches a critical value, the relationship shifts from negative to positive correlation. This indicates that typhoon disaster loss assessment should consider the interaction between urban resilience and typhoon intensity, providing important implications for disaster prevention and mitigation decisions. This paper provides a more comprehensive and accurate assessment method for evaluating typhoon disaster-directed economic losses and offers a scientific reference for determining the influencing factors of typhoon-directed economic loss assessments. Full article