Search Results (278)

The Korean Peninsula is critically exposed to impacts associated with current and projected rising mean sea-levels (MSLs) associated with climate change. Rising MSL will continue to exacerbate existing coastal hazards (e.g., typhoon-driven storm surges, tidal inundation, beach erosion, etc.). This study updates the previous 2019 national sea-level rise assessment with an additional 7 years of tidal and satellite altimetry data. Having corrected the rate of “relative” MSL rise for vertical land motion, only Busan and Ulsan tide gauge records have not experienced an increase in the rate of “geocentric” MSL rise since the 2019 Assessment. At the 95% CL, the current rate of “geocentric” MSL rise at all stations accord with recent published estimates of the rate of global MSL rise. From satellite altimetry of the sea margins around the Korean Peninsula, there has been a small (≈1%) increase in the average regional trend of sea-level anomalies (SLAs) compared to the previous assessment. The most significant trend estimates in SLAs continue to increase in margins of the East Sea (Sea of Japan) between 35° N and 40° N with increases of around 11% in the average rate of trend above the 2019 Assessment. Full article

Since the 1960s, research on sea-level rise (SLR) and land subsidence has grown significantly; however, comprehensive syntheses remain limited. This study presents a systematic review of 2171 publications spanning 1964–2025, combining a global perspective with a regional focus on the Gulf of Guinea, a critically underrepresented region within the African continent. The results show a steady increase in publications, exceeding 80 per year since 2015. A combined bibliometric and content analysis approach was adopted, integrating large-scale metadata analysis with an in-depth evaluation of 166 full-text studies corresponding to 311 study sites. Bibliometric analyses highlight four main themes: (1) factors driving SLR and subsidence, including climate, geophysical, and human effects; (2) monitoring methods such as tide gauges, GPS, and InSAR-based land motion tracking; (3) impacts on coastal communities, and ecosystems; and (4) strategies for adaptation and mitigation. A comparative assessment of global research output and Low-Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) exposure reveals a marked spatial mismatch, with critically vulnerable regions, such as the Gulf of Guinea, remaining significantly underrepresented (44 studies). The synthesis identifies key conceptual, methodological, and practical research gaps. Addressing these gaps requires holistic frameworks that integrate SLR and subsidence, long-term monitoring networks, advanced modeling, and evidence-based adaptation strategies. By linking bibliometric evidence with the interpretation of research trends and gaps, this study provides an analytical basis for supporting monitoring strategies, coastal planning, and adaptive responses. Additionally, the results highlight priority directions for future research directions in the Gulf of Guinea region. Full article

Tidal inundation dynamics are a principal driver of hydrological and biogeochemical processes in coastal ecosystems, controlling the exchange of carbon, nutrients, and sediments between wetlands and estuaries. In this study, we assessed the utility of L-band radar imagery in deriving tidal wetland inundated volume estimates (pixel-wise water depths), which provide a more robust characterization of wetland–estuary exchange processes than the lateral inundation state estimates. Inundation state products derived using L-band radar were combined with digital elevation models (DEMs) and synthetic tide gauging to estimate the volume of inundation. Synthetic tide gauges, models of water level produced from combined short-term field measurements and long-term monitoring stations were employed to provide calibration and validation for satellite observations for times outside of the water level sensor monitoring period (August–December 2018). Ten synthetic gauges were established across the Charles H. Wheeler Wildlife Management Area (Connecticut, USA) in a regular grid and were used to validate the radar-based inundation state and inundated volume products. To generate volumetric inundation estimates from inundation state products, we employed two bathymetric fill approaches using a DEM to constrain water surface elevations. The first approach assumed a constant water elevation fill for all inundated pixels, while the second introduced a maximum water depth constraint. While both approaches showed strong correlations with synthetic gauges, the depth constraint approach was more accurate, increasing R² from 0.87 to 0.98 and lowering RMSE from 0.79 m to 0.02 m. In this study, PALSAR-1/2 served as a proxy for the recently launched NISAR mission. Future research is planned to leverage the improved temporal sampling of the NISAR data record, combined with in-marsh water level observations (May 2025–present) and synthetic gauge estimates to improve wetland–estuary volumetric exchange characterization, which we demonstrate can be accurately estimated when paired with high-quality DEMs. Full article

Metro Manila, one of the world’s most densely populated megacities, is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise because of its low-lying deltaic location, frequent tropical cyclones, and rapid anthropogenic subsidence caused mainly by groundwater extraction. This study brings together historical tide-gauge records from the Port of Manila (PSMSL) with the Sixth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6) projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, adding in vertical land motion (VLM) and sea-level fingerprints to work out local relative sea-level (RSL) changes. Assuming a constant subsidence rate, cumulative VLM reaches ~0.785 m by 2100 and ~1.289 m by 2150. When you factor in climatic contributions (amplified 10–20% by fingerprints, especially under high-emission scenarios thanks to far-field Antarctic ice-loss effects in the western Pacific), projected RSL ranges from 1.09–1.42 m (SSP1-2.6) to 1.51–2.00 m (SSP5-8.5) by 2100, and from 1.70–2.28 m to 2.41–3.54 m by 2150. Results show that 7.95–11.15 km² (1.2–1.8% of land area under SSP5-8.5) could face permanent inundation, mostly in Malabon (~18%), Navotas (~20%), and Manila (~7%). Our conservative estimates (permanent ocean-connected flooding, excluding existing aquaculture areas) come in much lower than earlier mid-century projections of up to a 30% area affected. All this will worsen chronic tidal flooding, erosion, saltwater intrusion, and risks to millions in low-lying districts. We urgently need integrated adaptation, better groundwater regulation, and a mix of nature-based and engineered solutions. Full article

Extreme sea levels along the Mexican coasts pose an increasing risk to coastal infrastructure and communities, particularly under the combined influence of tropical cyclones and ongoing sea-level rise. This study analyzes tide-gauge records from the Mexican Pacific and Gulf of Mexico–Caribbean coasts to characterize the statistical behavior and seasonal modulation of extreme sea-level residuals. Astronomical tides were removed through harmonic analysis to isolate the meteorological residual associated with storm-driven processes. Extreme events were evaluated using complementary extreme-value frameworks, including Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions applied to monthly maxima and a Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) approach applied to the continuous residual series with temporal declustering and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) fitting. While both approaches consistently capture regional patterns, the POT–GPD framework is adopted as the primary basis for return-level estimation due to its explicit representation of event-scale extremes. The results reveal marked regional variability. Pacific stations exhibit bounded or near-Gumbel behavior (ξ ≈ −0.30 to −0.02) and a strong seasonal concentration of extremes during the tropical cyclone season. In contrast, Gulf of Mexico–Caribbean stations display higher absolute extremes and a broader seasonal footprint, with Veracruz showing a tendency toward heavier-tailed behavior (ξ ≈ 0.13). Return levels for a 25-year return period range from approximately 0.85–0.95 m in the Pacific to about 1.7 m in Veracruz. Longer return periods (e.g., 100 years) exceed 2.2 m in Veracruz but are associated with substantial uncertainty due to record-length limitations. The analysis of ENSO variability indicates that ENSO acts primarily as a secondary modulator of background sea-level variability rather than a deterministic driver of extreme events, with the largest anomalies typically associated with tropical cyclone activity. Overall, the results demonstrate that extreme sea levels along the Mexican coasts are governed by region-specific forcing and tail behavior requiring localized extreme-value modeling strategies. The proposed framework provides a robust and reproducible baseline for coastal hazard assessment and supports the integration of sea-level rise into future risk and design analyses. Full article

This study examines how assessments of coastal extreme sea levels depend on the separability and reconstructability of the astronomical tide in hourly sea-level records. Using a global tide-gauge network, it proposes an ensemble-learning correction framework that integrates a physical-baseline threshold with multi-criteria consistency testing to determine whether machine-learning enhancement is genuinely effective across stations and time windows. The analysis uses hourly records from 528 UHSLC tide gauges, with 31-day short sequences used to reconstruct 180-day sea-level variability. Taking the physical tidal model as the baseline, residuals are corrected using Extremely Randomized Trees, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting. To avoid false improvement driven solely by error reduction, a hierarchical decision framework is established. Baseline model quality is first screened using NSE and the coefficient of determination, after which mathematical artefacts are identified through diagnostics of peak suppression and variance shrinkage. A five-level classification is then derived from the convergent evidence of twelve performance metrics and four statistical significance tests. The results show a consistent global pattern across all three algorithms. Approximately 57% of stations meet the criterion for genuine improvement, whereas about 42% are associated with an unreliable physical baseline, indicating that the dominant source of failure arises not from the ensemble-learning algorithms themselves, but from spatially varying limitations in the underlying physical baseline. Spatially, the credibility of machine-learning correction is strongly conditioned by baseline quality: stations with effective correction are more continuous along the eastern North Atlantic and European coasts, whereas stations with ineffective correction are more concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the marginal seas and archipelagic regions of the western Pacific. These results indicate that the observed spatial heterogeneity primarily reflects geographically varying physical and dynamical conditions that control baseline reliability and residual learnability, rather than a standalone difference in the intrinsic capability of ensemble learning itself. Full article

The northeast monsoon prevailing over southeastern China in late seasons, generally from October to March, frequently generates water level anomalies upstream of the Taiwan Strait (TWS) that reach the coastal waters of Guangdong in South China, and, with compounding astronomical high tides, elevate coastal flood risk over the region. The risk of coastal flooding or sea inundation is further heightened when monsoon forcing co-occurs with storm surge brought by late-season tropical cyclones (TCs). This study integrates tide gauge observations from Hong Kong (HK) and its vicinity together with Delft3D Flexible Mesh simulations to diagnose a tide-modulated anomaly wave mechanism. Observations show that anomalies originating in or near TWS arrive in HK with station-dependent phasing. These water level anomalies exhibit a characteristic ~6 h periodicity west of the Taiwan Shoal, and display peaks that systematically align with the astronomical high tide. Time–frequency analysis reveals a wave period transformation from ~12 h north of Dongshandao over the coast of southeastern China to ~6 h west of the Taiwan Shoal. We test the hypothesis that wind-forced water anomalies generated in or near TWS undergo shoal-modulated nonlinear tide–wind interaction and tidal-current advection that transform their dominant period and phase-lock them to the tide, producing four anomaly peaks per day downstream and station-dependent phasing in HK. Hindcasts of the November 2024 monsoon episode reproduce the observed timing, periodicity, and spatial transition, while constituent experiments demonstrate that semi-diurnal forcing entering via the TWS is the primary driver of the ~6 h signal, with the Taiwan Shoal acting as the modulation locus. Accurate water level forecasts for the Guangdong coast, therefore, need to incorporate upstream wind forcing over the TWS and bathymetric controls around the Taiwan Shoal, with practical implications for compound flood risk during spring tides and co-occurring monsoon and/or TC events. Full article

Lago Argentino and Lago Viedma are large lakes fed by glaciers in Southern Patagonia, characterized by extraordinarily strong, persistent westerly winds and sharp gradients in regional relief, climate, and gravity field. We present operational models of spatio-temporal lake-level variations that represent instantaneous ellipsoidal lake-surface height as the superposition of three components: (i) a time-averaged lake-level topography derived from geoid modeling and ICESat-2 residuals, (ii) temporally varying water-volume changes in the lake estimated from tide gauge time series corrected for atmospherically driven perturbations, and (iii) a static hydrodynamic response to wind stress and air-pressure forcing. The atmospheric response is parametrized through empirically derived transfer functions obtained by regressing instantaneous lake-level anomalies against ERA5 wind and pressure fields, capturing wind-driven tilting. Standard deviations of ICESat-2 ATL13 elevations amount to 106 cm and 70 cm over Lago Argentino and Lago Viedma, respectively. The subtraction of our models reduces these standard deviations to 8 cm (Argentino) and 14 cm (Viedma). Surface waves incompletely averaged out within ICESat-2’s narrow footprint are identified as a principal source for the residual variability. A standard deviation of ATL13 elevations below 2 cm on calm days demonstrates ICESat-2’s unprecedented capability of monitoring water resources from space in a region of sparse hydrological infrastructure. Full article

One of the most significant impacts of climate change is sea-level rise, which is increasingly threatening to the coastal setting, infrastructure, and socioeconomic systems. Since a change at the sea level is spatially non-uniform and highly modulated by local oceanographic and climatic events, local or regional-scale measurements are necessary—especially in semi-enclosed basins. This paper examines the long-term variability of sea levels throughout the Persian Gulf and illustrates a strong spatial variance of the trends over the past and the future. Using three decades of satellite-derived observations, regional sea-level trends were estimated from monthly sea-level anomaly (SLA) data, which were also used to generate future projections to 2100. The analysis shows that the rate of sea-level rise along the UAE–Oman stretch is 3.88 mm year⁻¹ and that of the Strait of Hormuz is 5.23 mm year⁻¹, with a mean of 4.44 mm year⁻¹ in the basin. Statistical forecasts of sea-level change were projected by a statistical forecasting scheme with high predictive ability with the optimal configuration of an average of 0.0391 m, an RMSE of 0.0492 m, and an R² of 0.80 when independent validation was conducted. It is estimated that by 2100, the average rise of the sea level in the Persian Gulf is about 0.30–0.40 m, and the peak rise in sea level is at the Strait of Hormuz. Since these projections are based on statistical extrapolation rather than physics-based climate models, they are interpreted within the uncertainty envelope defined by IPCC AR6 scenarios. This study presents a unique, regionally resolved viewpoint on sea-level rise that is relevant to coastal risk management and adaptation planning in semi-enclosed marine basins by connecting robust statistical performance with physically interpretable regional patterns. Full article

This paper describes the results of monitoring wave processes in the geospheres using laser interference instruments, a weather station, a seismometer, and other measuring devices. Processing in situ data revealed general patterns in seismic events and variations in the hydrosphere and atmospheric pressure. Laser strainmeters and a seismometer were used to identify natural and anthropogenic seismic activity. A laser nanobarograph and strainmeters allowed us to detect baro-deformation interactions. Processing data from supersensitive detectors of hydrosphere pressure variations, a tide gauge, and temperature sensors revealed regional features of marine wave processes. Full article

Understanding short-term glacier motion is vital for assessing ice sheet dynamics in a warming climate. This study investigates the tidal and diurnal influences on the flow of Helheim Glacier, one of Greenland’s fastest-flowing marine-terminating glaciers, using data from 18 high-frequency GPS sensors and a regional tide gauge collected during summer 2013. A Kalman filter was applied to separate and quantify glacier velocity, tidal admittance, and diurnal melt-driven acceleration. Results reveal a high level of tidal admittance affecting the horizontal flow speed of the glacier, especially at the centre of the glacier, which is propagated upstream. This admittance corresponds to a 0.38–0.68 m/day reduction from the mean at high spring tide and a comparable increase at low tide. The glacier’s vertical motion showed strong tidal control close to the terminus, of 0.6–1.05 m during high spring tides, but this was significantly reduced more than 1 km from the terminus. Diurnal variations in horizontal speed are less spatially and temporally variable, with most nodes experiencing changes from a mean speed of ±0.1–0.3 m/day. These findings demonstrate that both tidal forcing and meltwater input to the basal system exert a significant, and potentially spatially variable, control on glacier dynamics, highlighting the need to incorporate short-period external forcing into predictive models of marine-terminating glacier behaviour. Full article

This study addresses deviations between observed nonstationary tides and physical-model results caused by multiple indirectly observed factors. The S_TIDE framework performs well in estuaries by introducing time-varying nonequilibrium physical factors to represent tidal characteristics and is applicable to diverse nonstationary regimes. However, S_TIDE remains limited: even combined with the Enhanced Harmonic Analysis (EHA) scheme, which improves extraction of characteristic tidal levels, it still fails to capture differences between observed and harmonically analyzed tides driven by regional nonlinear processes, so tidal errors remain large. We develop a hybrid scheme coupling S_TIDE with an ensemble-learning model. The physically computed tide provides a constrained backbone; the observed–physical difference is formulated as a residual series, and the PELM ensemble learns regional tidal characteristics encoded in these residuals to provide targeted corrections. Using research-grade records from 528 tide-gauge stations of the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (UHSLC), PELM increases tidal-simulation accuracy, yielding an average error-reduction of 45.63% across all stations; 66.10% of sites improve by more than 40%, and stations with large initial physical-tide errors improve on average by more than 65%. These results demonstrate that the Physics-Constrained Ensemble-Learning Method (PELM) scheme is highly effective and generalizable for extracting characteristic tidal levels and reducing tidal-simulation errors at the global scale. Full article

This study evaluates monthly sea levels during 1993–2023 from four ocean models using tide gauge and altimeter data in the Northwest Atlantic with its shelf seas, including the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf, Gulf of St. Lawrence, and the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelf. The evaluation is carried out for four different aspects: the multi-decadal mean and linear trend, seasonal cycle, and the de-trended and de-seasonalized anomalies. Overall, the high-resolution model with advanced data assimilation (GLORYS12v1) possesses skills in all four aspects. The other three models show different discrepancies in reproducing the observed sea level variations relative to GLORYS12v1. They possess low or no skills for the timing (despite reasonable standard deviations) of sea level anomalies at time scales longer than 20 months along the coast, and at all time scales on the shelf, over the shelf break, and in the deep ocean. Without data assimilation, the models with high and medium resolutions show biases in the time-mean sea levels in the Labrador Sea that can be attributed to the simulated stronger and weaker deep convection (deeper and shallower mixed layer depth), respectively. The medium-resolution model, using a different data assimilation approach than GLORYS12v1, shows biases in the seasonal amplitude and multi-decadal trends. Full article

Coastal flooding risk is intensifying under climate change, especially along the low sandy Senegalese coastline. This study explores the spatiotemporal variability of extreme coastal water levels (ECWL) from 1993 to 2023 by combining ERA5 reanalysis (waves, wind, pressure), tide gauge and meteorological data, and applying a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to estimate the 99th percentile and return levels for 50 and 100 year events. The analysis of the upper 1% of ECWLs reveals significant spatial heterogeneity: 99th percentile values exceed 1.2 m in the Dakar region (Yoff, Ouakam, Ngor) and around Saint-Louis/Langue de Barbarie, with 95% confidence intervals ranging from approximately 1.15 m to 1.30 m, while Casamance and the Saloum Delta exhibit much lower extremes (0.8–1.0 m). For return periods, ECWLs vary between 1.6 m and 2.3 m, with the 100 year return level (T100) exceeding 2.25 m in Dakar, above 2.0 m in Saint-Louis, and intermediate values (1.5–1.9 m) along the Petite Côte (Mbour–Toubab Dialaw) and in the Saloum Delta. The 50 year return level (T50) follows a similar spatial pattern but is 5–10 cm lower than T100 in the most exposed areas. Sensitivity analysis shows that ECWLs are primarily controlled by astronomical tide along much of the coast, whereas wave runup dominates in the southern estuarine zones (Saloum, Casamance, Mbour). Trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall test reveals a latitudinal gradient: stronger positive slopes in the south, weaker trends in central and northern sections, but all p values lie between 0.1 and 0.4, meaning none of the trends reach conventional significance. These findings point to a potential intensification of extreme water levels in socio-economically critical areas (Dakar, Saint-Louis, Mbour) but should be interpreted with caution given the lack of robust statistical significance. The results provide a quantitative basis for coastal risk management in light of projected sea level rise. Full article

Understanding suspended sediment transport in macrotidal embayments is crucial for assessing water quality, ecosystem function, and long-term morphological stability. This study provides a high-resolution, localized estimate of suspended sediment flux and examines the empirical relationship between turbidity (NTU, nephelometric turbidity unit) and total suspended matter (TSM, mg·L⁻¹) in the main tidal channel of Gomso Bay, a UNESCO-designated tidal flat on the west coast of Korea. A 13 h high-resolution fixed-point observation was conducted during a semi-diurnal tidal cycle using a multi-instrument platform, including an RCM, CTD profiler, tide gauge, and water sampling for gravimetric TSM analysis. Vertical measurements at the surface, mid, and bottom layers, taken every 15–30 min, revealed a strong linear correlation (R² = 0.94) between turbidity and TSM, empirically validating the use of optical sensors for real-time sediment monitoring under the highly dynamic conditions of Korean west-coast tidal channels. The net suspended sediment transport load was estimated at approximately 5503 kg·m⁻¹, with ebb-dominant residual currents indicating a net seaward sediment flux at the observation site. Residual flows over macrotidal channels are known to vary laterally, with landward fluxes often occurring over shoals. Importantly, the results from this single-station, short-duration observation indicate a predominantly seaward suspended sediment transport during the study period, which should be interpreted as a localized and time-specific estimate rather than a bay-wide characteristic. Nevertheless, these findings provide a baseline for assessing sediment flux and contribute to future applications in digital twin modeling and coastal management. Gomso Bay is part of the UNESCO-designated ‘Getbol, Korean Tidal Flats’, underscoring the global significance of preserving and monitoring this dynamic coastal system. Full article