Search Results (171)

The rapid electrification of transportation and the proliferation of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PVs) in urban environments are reshaping the operational dynamics of power distribution networks. However, the inherent uncertainty in electric vehicle (EV) behavior—including arrival times, charging preferences, and state-of-charge—as well as spatially and temporally variable solar generation, presents a profound challenge to existing scheduling frameworks. This paper proposes a novel data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DDRO) framework for solar-powered EV charging coordination under spatiotemporal uncertainty. Leveraging empirical datasets of EV usage and solar irradiance from a smart city deployment, the framework constructs Wasserstein ambiguity sets around historical distributions, enabling worst-case-aware decision-making without requiring the assumption of probability laws. The problem is formulated as a two-stage optimization model. The first stage determines day-ahead charging schedules, solar utilization levels, and grid allocations across an urban-scale distribution feeder. The second stage models real-time recourse actions—such as dynamic curtailment or demand reshaping—after uncertainties are realized. Physical grid constraints are modeled using convexified LinDistFlow equations, while EV behavior is segmented into user classes with individualized uncertainty structures. The model is evaluated on a modified IEEE 123-bus feeder with 52 EV-PV nodes, using 15 min resolution over a 24 h horizon and 12 months of real-world data. Comparative results demonstrate that the proposed DDRO method reduces total operational costs by up to 15%, eliminates voltage violations entirely, and improves EV service satisfaction by more than 30% relative to deterministic and stochastic baselines. This work makes three primary contributions: it introduces a robust, tractable optimization architecture that captures spatiotemporal uncertainty using empirical Wasserstein sets; it integrates behavioral and physical modeling within a unified dispatch framework for urban energy-mobility systems; and it demonstrates the value of robust coordination in simultaneously improving grid resilience, renewable utilization, and EV user satisfaction. The results offer practical insights for city-scale planners seeking to enable the reliable and efficient electrification of mobility infrastructure under uncertainty. Full article

The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs), particularly solar photovoltaic (PV) sources, has introduced significant uncertainty into power system operations, challenging traditional scheduling models and threatening system reliability. This study proposes a Fuzzy Unit Commitment Model (FUCM) designed to address uncertainty in load demand, solar PV generation, and spinning reserve requirements by applying fuzzy linear programming techniques. The FUCM reformulates uncertain constraints using triangular membership functions and integrates them into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) framework. The model’s effectiveness is demonstrated through two case studies: a 30-generator test system and a national-scale power system in Thailand comprising 171 generators across five service zones. Simulation results indicate that the FUCM consistently produces stable scheduling solutions that fall within deterministic upper and lower bounds. The model improves reliability metrics, including reduced loss-of-load probability and minimized load deficiency, while maintaining acceptable computational performance. These results suggest that the proposed approach offers a practical and scalable method for unit commitment planning under uncertainty. By enhancing both operational stability and economic efficiency, the FUCM contributes to the sustainable management of RES-integrated power systems. Full article

In this paper, a robust optimized controller is implemented in the photovoltaic generator system (PVGS). The PVGS is composed of individual photovoltaic (PV) cells, which convert solar energy to electrical energy. To optimize the efficiency of the PVGS under variable solar irradiance and temperatures, a maximum power point tracking (MPPT) controller is necessary. Additionally, the PVGS output voltage is typically low for many applications. To achieve the MPPT and to gain the output voltage, an increasing boost converter (IBC) is employed. Then, two issues should be considered in MPPT. At first, a smooth control signal for adjusting the duty cycle of the IBC is important. Another critical issue is the PVGS and IBC unknown sections, i.e., the total system uncertainty. Therefore, to address the system uncertainties and to regulate the smooth duty cycle of the converter, a robust dynamic sliding mode control (DSMC) is proposed. In DSMC, a low-pass integrator is placed before the system to suppress chattering and to produce a smooth actuator signal. However, this integrator increases the system states, and hence, a sliding mode observer (SMO) is proposed to estimate this additional state. The stability of the proposed control scheme is demonstrated using the Lyapunov theory. Finally, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and provide a reliable comparison, conventional sliding mode control (CSMC) with the same proposed SMO is also implemented. Full article

This paper presents a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach for optimizing a microgrid system to achieve Plus-Energy Building (PEB) performance at the University of Coimbra’s Electrical Engineering Department. Using Python 3.12.8, Rhino 7, and PVsyst 8.0.1, simulations considered architectural and visual constraints, with economic feasibility assessed through a TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) analysis. The system is projected to generate approximately 1 GWh annually, with a 98% probability of exceeding 1076 MWh based on Gaussian estimation. Consumption is estimated at 460 MWh, while a 3.8 MWh battery ensures up to 72 h of autonomy. Rooftop panels and green parking arrays, fixed at 13.5° and 59°, minimize visual impact while contributing a surplus of +160% energy injection (or a net surplus of +60% energy after self-consumption). Assuming a battery cost of EUR 200/kWh, each hour of energy storage for the building requires 61 kWh of extra capacity with a cost of 12,200 (EUR/hr.storage). Recognizing environmental variability, these figures represent cross-validated probabilistic estimates derived from both PVsyst and Monte Carlo simulation using Python, reinforcing confidence in system feasibility. A holistic photovoltaic optimization strategy balances technical, economic, and architectural factors, demonstrating the potential of PEBs as a sustainable energy solution for academic institutions. Full article

This study introduces a novel approach for optimizing residential energy systems by combining linear policy graphs with stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) algorithms. Our method optimizes residential solar power generation and battery storage systems, reducing costs through strategic charging and discharging patterns. Using stylized test data, we evaluate battery storage optimization strategies by comparing various SDDP model configurations against a linear programming (LP) benchmark model. The SDDP optimization framework demonstrates robust performance in battery operation management, efficiently handling diverse pricing scenarios while maintaining computational efficiency. Our analysis reveals that the SDDP model achieves positive financial returns with small-scale battery installations, even in scenarios with limited photovoltaic generation capacity. The results confirm both the economic viability and environmental benefits of residential solar–battery systems through two key strategies: aligning battery charging with renewable energy availability and shifting energy consumption away from peak periods. The SDDP framework proves effective in managing battery operations across dynamic pricing scenarios, achieving performance comparable to LP methods while handling uncertainties in PV generation, consumption, and pricing. Full article

Accurate short-term load forecasting is vital for the reliable and efficient operation of smart grids, particularly under the uncertainty introduced by variable renewable energy sources (RESs) such as solar and wind. This study introduces ST-CALNet, a novel hybrid deep learning framework that integrates convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with an Attentive Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to enhance forecasting performance in renewable-integrated smart grids. The CNN component captures spatial dependencies from multivariate inputs, comprising meteorological variables and generation data, while the LSTM module models temporal correlations in historical load patterns. An embedded attention mechanism dynamically weights input sequences, enabling the model to prioritise the most influential time steps, thereby improving its interpretability and robustness during demand fluctuations. ST-CALNet was trained and evaluated using real-world datasets that include electricity consumption, solar photovoltaic (PV) output, and wind generation. Experimental evaluation demonstrated that the model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.0494, root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.0832, and a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.4376 for electricity demand forecasting. For PV and wind generation, the model attained MAE values of 0.0134 and 0.0141, respectively. Comparative analysis against baseline models confirmed ST-CALNet’s superior predictive accuracy, particularly in minimising absolute and percentage-based errors. Temporal and regime-based error analysis validated the model’s resilience under high-variability conditions such as peak load periods, while visualisation of attention scores offered insights into the model’s temporal focus. These findings underscore the potential of ST-CALNet for deployment in intelligent energy systems, supporting more adaptive, transparent, and dependable forecasting within smart grid infrastructures. Full article

Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) requires tools that improve and facilitate simulating and predicting the system’s output energy. The efficiency of a photovoltaic (PV) system can be determined by the performance ratio (PR), which relates the actual system’s output energy to the theoretical output according to the installed power and the solar irradiation, thus accounting for the power losses the PV system undergoes. Among the different parameters affecting PR, module temperature and the angle of incidence of irradiance are the most dependent on the BIPV application due to the varied module positioning. This paper assesses the suitability of several BIPV temperature models and determines the angular losses for any possible module positioning. The proposed methodology is easy to replicate and results in polar heatmap graphs to estimate PR at the desired location as a function of the tilt and azimuth angles of the modules. The calculations require irradiance, ambient temperature, and wind speed data, which can easily be obtained worldwide. Dynamic sky conditions are addressed through filters that smooth out quickly changing input data to avoid high and low peaks. The developed graphs are helpful in the decision-making process for BIPV designs by allowing the designer to estimate the expected PR of the BIPV system for any possible position of the modules on the building envelope, reducing the effect of uncertainties and resulting in more accurate and better predictions of the system’s output energy. The method applied to a BIPV façade in Madrid showed a deviation of less than 3% between the estimated and monitored PRs; the PR values ranged between 0.74 and 0.82, depending on the BIPV application and module position. Full article

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, battery energy storage systems (BESSs), and electric vehicles (EVs) in low-voltage (LV) and medium-voltage (MV) distribution networks is reshaping traditional grid operations. This shift introduces challenges including voltage violations, thermal overloading, and power quality issues due to bidirectional power flows. Hosting capacity (HC) assessment has become essential for quantifying and optimizing DER integration while ensuring grid stability. This paper reviews state-of-the-art HC assessment methods, including deterministic, stochastic, time-series, and AI-based approaches. Techniques for enhancing HC—such as on-load tap changers, reactive power control, and network reconfiguration—are also discussed. A key focus is the emerging concept of dynamic operating envelopes (DOEs), which enable real-time allocation of HC by dynamically adjusting import/export limits for DERs based on operational conditions. The paper examines the benefits, challenges, and implementation of DOEs, supported by insights from Australian projects. Technical, regulatory, and social aspects are addressed, including network visibility, DER uncertainty, scalability, and cybersecurity. The study highlights the potential of integrating DOEs with other HC enhancement strategies to support efficient, reliable, and scalable DER integration in modern distribution networks. Full article

The increasing complexity and uncertainty associated with high renewable energy penetration require forecasting methods that provide more comprehensive information for risk analysis and energy management. This paper proposes a novel probabilistic forecasting model for solar power generation based on a non-homogeneous multi-observation Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The model is purely data-driven, free from restrictive assumptions, and features a lightweight structure that enables fast updates and transparent reasoning—offering a practical alternative to computationally intensive neural network approaches. The proposed framework is first formalized through an extension of the classical HMM and the derivation of its core inference procedures. A method for estimating the probability density distribution of solar power output is introduced, from which point forecasts are extracted. Thirteen model variants with different observation-dependency structures are constructed and evaluated using real PV operational data. Experimental results validate the model’s effectiveness in generating both prediction intervals and point forecasts, while also highlighting the influence of observation correlation on forecasting performance. The proposed approach demonstrates strong potential for real-time solar power forecasting in modern power systems, particularly where speed, adaptability, and interpretability are critical. Full article

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs. Full article

Building-integrated photovoltaic systems (BIPVs) is a strategy to achieve energy self-sufficiency in buildings. However, photovoltaic (PV) energy production presents challenges due to its intermittent nature, characterized by variations and uncertainties associated with solar radiation and interference from the building’s surroundings. Therefore, building information modeling (BIM) enables energy simulations and solar performance analyses during the design phase of buildings. In this context, this paper aims to identify the key strategies for integrating BIM and photovoltaic energy production systems and how these approaches support the development of sustainable projects. A systematic literature review was conducted, combined with bibliometric analysis, content analysis, and coding of 63 articles. Results indicate an annual research growth rate of 19.62%, with contributions from 268 authors and an international co-authorship rate of 22.22%. Core research trends in the BIM-PV context were identified through thematic maps, highlighting four dimensions—BIPV applications, parametric tools for energy simulation, challenges, and potential benefits—divided into 32 codes. The findings are synthesized into four theoretical propositions structured in an integrative framework. Additionally, five key applications of BIM-PV integration are mapped, along with their addressed problems and the limitations in establishing theoretical and managerial contributions. Full article

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power generation are key contributors to the integration of renewable energy into modern power systems. The intermittent and variable nature of these renewables has a substantial impact on the power system’s reliability. In time-series simulation studies, inaccuracies in solar irradiation and wind speed parameters can lead to unreliable evaluations of system reliability, ultimately resulting in flawed decision making regarding the investment and operation of energy systems. This paper investigates the reliability deviation due to modeling uncertainties in a 100% renewable-based system. This study employs two methods to assess and contrast the reliability of a standalone microgrid (SMG) system in order to achieve this goal: (i) random uncertainty within a selected confidence interval and (ii) splitting the cumulative distribution function (CDF) into five regions of equal probability. In this study, an SMG system is modeled, and loss of load probability (LOLP) is evaluated in both approaches. Six different sensitivity analysis studies, including annual load demand growth, are performed. The results from the simulations demonstrate that the suggested methods can estimate the reliability of a microgrid powered by renewable energy sources, as well as its probability of reaching certain levels of reliability. Full article

The growing energy demand of the industrial sector and the need for sustainable solutions highlight the importance of efficient decision making in solar photovoltaic (PV) implementation. Selecting optimal PV configuration is complex due to the interdependent technical, economic, environmental, and social factors involved. This study introduces an integrated decision-making method combining a morphological matrix and fuzzy TOPSIS to systematically select and rank optimal PV system configurations for manufacturing firms. While the morphological matrix exhaustively examines possible design solutions based on sensing, smart, sustainable, and social (S4) attributes, the fuzzy TOPSIS method ranks the alternatives by handling uncertainty in decision making. A case study conducted in a Mexican manufacturing company validates the methodology’s effectiveness. The optimal PV configuration identified comprehensively addresses operational and sustainability criteria, covering all lifecycle stages. This approach demonstrates quantitative superiority and greater robustness compared to existing fuzzy TOPSIS-based methods for solar PV applications. The findings highlight the practical value of data-driven, multi-criteria decision making for industrial solar energy adoption, enhancing project feasibility, cost efficiency, and environmental compliance. Future research will incorporate discrete event simulation (DES) to further refine energy consumption strategies in manufacturing. Full article

Energy hubs integrating onsite renewable generation and battery storage provide cost-efficient solutions for meeting building electricity requirements. This study presents methods for modeling uncertainties in load demand and solar generation, ranging from normal distribution assumptions to distributions sourced from CityLearn 2.3.0. We also implement kernel density estimation (KDE) to represent the non-parametric distribution characteristics of actual data. Through Monte Carlo simulation, we emphasize the value of robust, data-driven methodologies in optimizing energy hub operations under realistic uncertainty conditions and effectively conducting risk assessment. The CityLearn real-world data confirms that the non-Gaussian nature of building-level energy demand and solar PV electricity output is most accurately represented through KDE, leading to more precise cost projections for the considered energy hub. Full article

The energy transition towards achieving carbon neutrality is marked by the decarbonization of the power system and a high degree of electrification in end-use sectors. The decarbonization of the power system primarily relies on large-scale renewable energy, nuclear power, and fossil fuel-based power with carbon capture technologies. This structure of power supply introduces significant uncertainty in electricity supply. Due to the technological progress in end-use sectors and spatial reallocation of industries in China, the load curve and power supply curve is very different today. However, most studies’ analyses of future electricity systems are based on today’s load curve, which could be misleading when seeking to understand future electricity systems. Therefore, it is essential to thoroughly analyze changes in end-use load curves to better align electricity demand with supply. This paper analyzes the characteristics of electricity demand load under China’s future energy transition and economic transformation pathways using the Integrated Energy and Environment Policy Assessment model of China (IPAC). It examines the electricity and energy usage characteristics of various sectors in six typical regions, provides 24-h load curves for two representative days, and evaluates the effectiveness of demand-side response in selected provinces in 2050. The study reveals that, with the transition of the energy system and the industrial relocation during economic transformation, the load curves in China’s major regions by 2050 will differ notably from those of today, with distinct characteristics emerging across different regions. With the costs of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power declining in the future, the resulting electricity price will also differ significantly from today. Daytime electricity prices will be notably lower than those during the evening peak, as the decrease in solar PV and wind power output leads to a significant increase in electricity costs. This pricing structure is expected to drive a strong demand-side response. Demand-side response can significantly improve the alignment between load curves and power supply. Full article