Search Results (450)

This study investigates the influence of rainfall variability on runoff generation in the Upper Ing River Basin and inflow to the Mae Tum Reservoir in northern Thailand using the physically based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) version 2012. In small mountainous watersheds, water supply reliability for irrigation and domestic use—particularly for unmonitored royal initiated projects like the Mae Tum Reservoir—has become a critical concern due to shifting climatic extremes. A SWAT model was developed using detailed spatial data on topography, land use, and soil characteristics together with long-term daily climate and streamflow records. The model performance at Station I.17 was evaluated through calibration and validation using the R², Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and percent bias indices. Rainfall regimes were classified into dry, normal, and wet years based on the mean and standard deviation of 25-year gauge records to drive scenario simulations. The calibrated model reproduced seasonal runoff patterns satisfactorily (monthly NSE up to 0.685 and R² up to 0.712). The simulations demonstrated the strong sensitivity of both the runoff at Station I.17 and reservoir inflow to interannual rainfall differences, with the annual runoff ranging from 71.5 to 379.7 million m³ and the annual inflow to Mae Tum Reservoir ranging from 28.84 to 48.33 million m³. These findings demonstrate that physically based spatial modeling can effectively replace traditional empirical operating rules, providing a highly transferable framework for runoff forecasting, reservoir inflow assessment, and climate responsive water resources planning in data-scarce tropical mountainous basins. Full article

Changes in lake area directly reflect the state of regional hydrological cycles and ecological balance. However, the lack of long-term monitoring data and the complexity of driving factors make it difficult to formulate effective management strategies. This study used landsat imagery and the random forest (RF) algorithm to construct a time series of the lake area of Chirui Lake from 1990 to 2024, revealing a counter-seasonal phenomenon in which the lake area during the low-flow period was significantly larger than that during the high-flow period. To clarify the driving mechanisms behind this phenomenon, a comprehensive analysis of climatic and hydrological factors and lake area was conducted using methods such as the Pettitt test, Morlet wavelet analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), structural equation modeling (SEM), and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. The results indicate that, from the perspectives of climate and hydrology, sub surface runoff is likely to have played a significant role in the area changes of Chirui Lake, and that between 2025 and 2029, the lake’s surface area is likely to continue to fluctuate significantly between 0.4 km² and 0.6 km². This study explored the influence of climate and hydrology on the changes in the area of Chirui Lake and provides five-year forecast of lake surface area, however, given the inherent uncertainties in the forecast, these findings should be viewed as preliminary references rather than direct decision-making tools for lake management. Full article

Accurate runoff prediction is an essential foundation for water resource management, flood prevention, and drought warning. Despite the superior performance of deep learning models in runoff prediction, the high-dimensional hyperparameter optimization limits their widespread application. To address this challenge, this study proposed a hyperparameter optimization strategy that integrated Uniform Design (UD) and Meta-Learning (ML) within the Transformer framework (UD-ML-Transformer) for daily runoff prediction. Performance of the proposed model was systematically evaluated against five benchmark models, including the UD-Transformer, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)-Transformer, and three Receptance Weighted Key Value (RWKV)-based models (PSO-RWKV, UD-RWKV, and UD-ML-RWKV), using hydroclimatic data spanning 1980 to 2014 from the Rio Pueblo de Taos watershed in USA. Results showed that the UD-ML-Transformer model performed the best in both prediction accuracy and peak flow, with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.906, and the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.004, 0.062, and 0.034, respectively. The UD-Transformer ranked second in performance, followed by the PSO-Transformer. The integrated UD-ML hyperparameter optimization strategy also improved the performance of RWKV-based models. Compared with the PSO-RWKV and UD-RWKV models, the UD-ML-RWKV model exhibited an NSE improvement of 0.45–7.65% and an RMSE reduction of 1.47–21.18%, respectively. Moreover, cross-watershed validation conducted in the Ford River watershed, USA, also demonstrated the satisfactory performance of the proposed UD-ML-Transformer model, with the highest NSE of 0.890, and the lowest MSE, RMSE, and MAE of 0.088, 0.296, and 0.141, respectively. These findings highlight the superiority of integrating UD and ML for hyperparameter optimization in runoff forecasting. Full article

Daily groundwater-level prediction in arid inland basins is driven by complex meteorological–hydrological conditions, water supply, pumping, and irrigation demand. Using data from the Zhangye Basin (2018–2025), this study selected 10 representative wells from 51 candidates to build a one-day-ahead framework with a 60-day input window. Dempster–Shafer evidence theory fused five criteria (Pearson, Spearman, lagged correlation, mutual information, and tree-model importance) to screen external variables. Long short-term memory network (LSTM), temporal convolutional network (TCN), and Transformer served as first-level sequence models; extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) as the second-level stacking learner; and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to quantify feature contributions. Dempster–Shafer evidence theory (D-S evidence theory) results indicated that groundwater pumping proxy variable (GPV), irrigation water-demand intensity proxy variable (IWD), surface-water supply proxy variable (SWS), canal-diversion proxy variable (CDV), air temperature (AT), runoff, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and canal irrigation supply–demand coupling intensity (CISDCI) exhibited high process-representation relevance. During the 90-day test period, Stacking achieved the lowest RMSE for six of 10 wells. Regional average RMSE, MAE, and NSE values were 0.1596 m, 0.0772 m, and 0.9326 for the Zhangye group, and 0.0185 m, 0.0133 m, and 0.9177 for the Gaotai group. SHAP showed historical groundwater-level data dominated contributions, accounting for 64.17% and 43.96% in the Zhangye and Gaotai groups, respectively, and indicating model dependence rather than direct hydrological causality. This framework provides a cautious reference for short-term groundwater forecasting and input selection under the given data conditions. Full article

Reliable daily runoff forecasting supports flood risk mitigation and sustainable basin water management, but the added value of external information is difficult to identify when antecedent runoff strongly constrains prediction. This study develops a diagnostic framework to examine whether multi-source remote sensing and gridded precipitation provide additional value beyond runoff memory. The framework was applied to 1-, 3-, 5-, and 7-day runoff forecasting in the Beidao and Baijiachuan catchments of the Yellow River Basin. An external-forcing reference model (M1) used meteorological–remote sensing variables, precipitation statistics, and static catchment attributes, whereas a runoff memory reference model (M2) used only antecedent runoff features. Their validation-based combination formed a fusion benchmark. A residual correction model based on an SRCNN–Transformer architecture (M3) was then used to examine whether the remaining fusion errors could be corrected using gridded precipitation fields and multi-source temporal states. Results show that runoff memory dominated short-lead forecasts but weakened with lead time, while external forcing became more useful at medium and longer leads. M3 produced positive but lead time-dependent Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency gains, with the most stable improvements at 3–5 days. These results describe the potential value of remote sensing and gridded precipitation under known forcing conditions rather than operational forecast skill. These findings provide evidence from two contrasting Yellow River catchments, while their broader applicability remains to be tested under more diverse hydrological and operational forecasting conditions. Full article

Accurate streamflow prediction is an important part of disaster management, as forecasting flow rates is an indispensable element of early warning systems, yet it remains challenging due to the complexity and nonlinearity of climatic inputs. This study evaluated the performances of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and random forest (RF) machine learning algorithms for daily streamflow prediction across sixteen hydroclimatically diverse basins in the contiguous United States using the CAMELS dataset. The models were trained on five climatic features augmented with antecedent streamflow lag features at 7-, 14-, and 30-day intervals. The random forest algorithm demonstrated a better accuracy, achieving an average Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.755 compared to 0.632 for the LSTM model. Both models performed well in the snowmelt-dominated basins and were least effective in flashy humid regimes. Additionally, both models exhibited high precision for flood detection, with accuracy rates exceeding 88% for distinguishing flood events and F1 scores of 0.734 and 0.797 for LSTM and RF, respectively. These results recommend RF for operational streamflow forecasting across hydroclimatically diverse settings and LSTM for perennial snowmelt- and groundwater-influenced catchments where long-range temporal dependencies govern runoff generation. Full article

Hydrological drought forecasting in semi-arid basins is challenging due to the combined influence of meteorological forcing, large-scale atmospheric teleconnections, and basin memory processes, which are rarely jointly analysed within a leakage-free predictive framework. This study addresses this gap by evaluating gradient-boosted trees and neural forecasting models for one-month-ahead prediction of the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) in two sub-basins of the Wadi Sahaouat Basin, Algeria. The models include gradient-boosted regression trees (GBRT), A-N-BEATS, A-N-HiTS, and TiDE, representing distinct forecasting architectures. Predictors consist of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), seven teleconnection indices (NAO, AO, EAWR, SCAND, MEI, SOI, WeMO), and their one- to three-month lags. Two scenarios are tested: Scenario 1 uses SPI and teleconnection lags only, while Scenario 2 additionally includes lagged SRI values (SRI_lag1–3) to represent hydrological memory. A train-only Variance Inflation Factor (VIF > 10) procedure is applied to remove multicollinearity without data leakage. In Basin 1, SRI lags were excluded due to strong collinearity with SPI lags (r = 0.984), resulting in identical inputs for both scenarios. In Basin 2, SRI lags were retained to assess their predictive contribution. GBRT achieved the best overall performance across both basins and scenarios, with mean RMSE, NSE, and KGE values of 0.0682, 0.9907, and 0.8945, respectively. TiDE ranked second overall, with a mean RMSE of 0.1166, followed by A-N-HiTS in third place with a mean RMSE of 0.1203 and A-N-BEATS with the weakest overall performance, with a mean RMSE of 0.2159. These results indicate that gradient-boosted trees remain highly competitive with neural models for small monthly hydrological datasets and that the value of hydrological memory is basin-dependent and varies according to its independence from concurrent meteorological forcing. Full article

To further improve prediction accuracy, a VMD-VPPSO-LSTM model is proposed in this study, which combines Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) for signal decomposition, Velocity-Pause Particle Swarm Optimization (VPPSO) for parameter optimization, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) for runoff prediction. The model was evaluated at Huangtaiqiao station in the Xiaoqing River Basin, Dawenkou station in the Dawen River Basin, and Tangnaihai station in the source region of the Yellow River Basin. The proposed model achieved the best overall performance among all comparison models, with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of 0.970, 0.962, and 0.994 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values of 1.357, 0.989, and 46.804 at the three stations, respectively. Compared with VMD-LSTM, VPPSO further reduced the RMSE at all stations and maintained training-test NSE gaps below 0.006, indicating strong generalization performance. The model also achieved the lowest Peak Percent Standard Deviation (PPSD) values for high-flow events, reaching 9.03%, 14.42%, and 3.88% at the three stations, respectively. These results demonstrate that VMD-VPPSO-LSTM is a reliable and effective model for daily runoff prediction. Full article

To address runoff forecasting inaccuracies caused by data gaps in reservoir operations, this paper proposes a collaborative modeling framework integrating deep learning, signal decomposition, uncertainty quantification, and transfer learning. Validated on the Wei River (source basin) and Yongding River (target basin) with similar hydrological characteristics, the framework first constructs a Pyraformer-BiLSTM-LSS point forecasting model to enhance characterization of non-stationary runoff sequences. Then, the BLSO-VMD optimization decomposition technique filters and reconstructs forecasting noise, improving model robustness. Subsequently, a probabilistic interval forecasting model is developed via multi-task learning to reliably quantify uncertainty. To tackle data scarcity in the target domain, a “decomposition–reconstruction–transfer” learning mechanism transfers model knowledge from the source domain to the target domain. Results show that the framework achieves excellent performance in the source domain and successfully transfers to the data-scarce target domain, significantly enhancing the accuracy and stability of both point and interval forecasts. By establishing a collaborative modeling framework combining transfer learning and multi-task learning, along with an adaptive signal decomposition method based on BLSO and a multi-scale deep learning model, this study effectively addresses the challenges of accuracy and reliability in runoff forecasting for data-scarce basins. It provides a transferable and scalable technical pathway for runoff simulation and reservoir operation in hydrologically underserved regions, supporting sustainable water resource management and ecological protection. Full article

Flash-flood and floodplain inundation simulations are highly sensitive to the spatiotemporal variability of convective rainfall, particularly during the initial runoff generation stage. However, coarse-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) forcing tends to smooth localized rainfall extremes, limiting its ability to accurately represent hydrological responses in low-relief floodplains. In this study, we couple a diffusion-enhanced radar nowcasting model, Diff_ConvLSTM, with a spatial resolution of 1 km and a temporal resolution of 6 min, to assess the hydrological value of high-resolution rainfall forcing over the middle Yangtze River floodplain. We introduce a monotone piecewise cubic Hermite interpolation scheme to ensure a stable transition from discrete high-frequency rainfall inputs to continuous hydrodynamic integration. Evaluation using a radar dataset from 2023 to 2024 shows that Diff_ConvLSTM better preserves intense convective echoes and rainband structures compared to the baseline ConvLSTM, increasing the Probability of Detection at the 40 dBZ threshold by 65.8%. A forcing-replacement experiment for the flood event on 30 June 2023 demonstrates that AI-based nowcasting rainfall forcing reduces peak-discharge underestimation, improves volumetric consistency, and produces inundation patterns that are closer to the observation-driven reference than those generated by low-resolution forecast forcing, although positive biases in inundation area and water depth persist. An additional event in 2024 confirms that the improvements are primarily reflected in discharge magnitude and flood volume representation, while enhancements in peak timing remain limited. Overall, the results illustrate both the added value and the remaining limitations of AI-enhanced nowcasting for hydrologically informed flood forecasting. Full article

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a critical role in sustainable flood risk management and climate-resilient water resources planning, particularly in plain river-network basins, where runoff processes are influenced by strong temporal variability and intensive human regulation. To address the limitations of existing data-driven models in representing short-term temporal variability and long-range dependencies, this study develops a dual-branch temporal convolutional network–transformer encoder (TCN–TE) forecasting framework for multi-station runoff prediction. The proposed model integrates a temporal convolutional network (TCN) with channel attention (CA) to extract local temporal patterns and adaptively reweight multivariate hydrological features, and a gated recurrent unit (GRU)-enhanced transformer encoder (TE) to improve long-range temporal dependency modeling. In addition, an autocorrelation-based analysis is conducted to quantitatively determine the effective memory length of the runoff system, providing a statistically grounded basis for input window selection. The model is evaluated using daily runoff and rainfall data from the Dongtiao River basin in eastern China, including seven runoff stations and two rainfall stations over the period 2012–2024. Forecasting results under multiple horizons (1, 3, 7, and 14 days) demonstrate that the proposed TCN-TE model consistently outperforms representative deep learning baselines in terms of $R^2$, RMSE, and MAE, with particularly significant improvements for medium- and long-term forecasts. The results suggest that the proposed model provides a useful data-driven multivariate forecasting framework for runoff prediction using multi-station hydrological observations. Full article

Accurate streamflow information is critical for early flood and drought warning. However, global hydrological forecasting systems are affected by residual errors in meteorological forcing, model structure, and routing, which propagate into simulated streamflow. Within the GEOGLOWS River Forecast System (RFS), ERA5 runoff biases are routed into streamflow simulations. The most effective operational bias-correction method, MFDC-QM, requires local discharge observations and cannot be applied consistently in ungauged basins. This study evaluates a pre-routing, grid-scale runoff bias-correction framework that adjusts ERA5 runoff before routing by combining Flow Duration Curve (FDC) mapping and Sparse Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) matching, using GSCD as a spatially distributed reference runoff data. Baseline GEOGLOWS RFS, pre-routing correction, and MFDC-QM were compared for 1980–2025 using 16,517 gauging stations, Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and paired significance tests. Globally, the median KGE increased modestly from 0.16 to 0.22, compared with 0.48 for MFDC-QM. Results demonstrate a clear regional dependence: pre-routing correction produced statistically significant gains in South America and Africa (p < 0.05), where ERA5 runoff exhibits stronger residual biases, but had limited effects in Europe and North America, where dense hydrometeorological networks likely impose stronger observational constraints on the underlying reanalysis. These patterns show that pre-routing correction is most valuable where residual forcing bias is large and observational constraints are limited, complementing observation-based post-processing in ungauged, data-limited regions. Full article

Forecasting hydropower plant power production is a great challenge in the context of maintaining power system stability, reliability and efficiency, especially in an age with variable renewable energy sources when demand for electricity is steadily rising. Accurate forecasting methods are a crucial enabler for the operational existence of power systems that rely on renewable sources. And while in the pursuit of increased accuracy of predictions, many recent research works rely on artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques, this study proposes and adopts a more conventional approach with standardized mathematical models to address the problem of hydropower production forecasting. The model predicts the runoff–power relationship. It starts with the normalization of different rain phenomena as a part of the statistical characterization of runoff events. The system transforms rain occurrence to runoff events via the USDA SCS CN model and then feature vectors are composed, which are used to generate kernel coefficients via interpolation. Contrary to models based on artificial intelligence, the proposed approach has several practical advantages requiring a minimal set of input parameters, which significantly reduces data preprocessing demands and allows for a straightforward integration into existing systems, thereby lowering the cost and the implementation and deployment time. Furthermore, the simplicity and universality of the model make it so that it can be adapted across a wide range of hydropower plants of varying scales and with diverse hydrological and meteorological conditions. The model’s performance and prediction accuracy are evaluated using empirical data records of time series over a five-year period for the meteorological parameters and production of an existing real-life hydropower plant in Bulgaria. The performance of the newly proposed model is assessed using widely accepted statistical error metrics, namely, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficient, and the Pearson correlation coefficient (R). These metrics provide a comprehensive assessment of the forecasts’ precision and effectiveness. The results show that the proposed model offers admissible accuracy with low computational effort. Thus, it can be successfully implemented in practice in a number of hydropower plant production forecasting applications. Full article

Accurate forecasting of urban rainfall-runoff pollution across large river basins is essential for urban water management. However, this task faces formidable challenges due to the scarcity of locally monitored data and the heterogeneity in hydrological and pollution processes. To address these challenges, we proposed a novel three-tiered framework comprising (1) functional area clustering using 16-dimensional features to identify zones with shared pollution mechanisms and establish a physical parameter library; (2) a hybrid physics-informed data-driven model integrating SWMM with a Residual-BiLSTM-Multi-Head Attention (RLA) model; and (3) cluster-based transfer learning enabling predictions in data-scarce zones. The framework’s efficacy was demonstrated through a multi-tiered dataset for the Yangtze River Basin. First, a knowledge base comprising 2390 reported rainfall events across 57 functional areas was synthesized to inform the functional clustering and establish a shared physical parameter library. Subsequently, intensive field monitoring from two representative residential areas was used to train and validate the hybrid model. In data-rich zones within a cluster, the model achieved high accuracy (R² > 0.82). For data-scarce zones within the same functional cluster, the model maintained a promising performance (R² > 0.5). This study presents a novel basin-scale framework, with its initial application and preliminary validation in the Yangtze River Basin. Full article

Accurate flood simulation in regulated, low-lying river basins is crucial for forecasting and risk mitigation, but performance depends strongly on whether models represent floodplain hydrodynamics and human regulation. This study evaluates three coupled hydrological–hydrodynamic schemes in the Huai River Basin upstream of Bengbu Station using identical meteorological forcing and VIC-generated runoff: (I) a linear routing scheme (VIC–Routing), (II) a natural hydrodynamic scheme (VIC–CaMa-Flood), and (III) an extended hydrodynamic scheme that incorporates reservoir regulation and levee effects (VIC–CaMa-Flood with Dam). Results reveal clear spatial differences in scheme suitability. The linear routing scheme performs best in upstream reaches, with NSE and KGE generally exceeding 0.81, but tends to overestimate peak discharge in downstream lowland sections. Incorporating hydrodynamic processes and regulation representation further reduces peak flow bias. Scheme III achieves the most consistent downstream improvement, particularly for high flows (>2000 m³/s), with NSE exceeding 0.80 in long-term simulations and improved agreement with satellite-driven inundation patterns. However, simplified reservoir operating rules can increase uncertainty in water level dynamics. During the 2020 plum rain flood, Scheme II yielded more accurate water levels in some reaches, suggesting that generalized operation rules may introduce compensating errors even when discharge accuracy improves. Overall, reliable flood simulation in well-managed basins requires an explicit representation of both floodplain hydrodynamics and regulation, and scheme selection should be guided by the dominant controls along the river network. Full article