Search Results (60)

The Guanting Gorge section of the Yongding River features complex terrain and densely distributed hydraulic projects. Under extreme rainstorm conditions, flood disasters are highly likely to occur, triggering secondary disasters such as landslides, barrier lakes, and dam breaks, resulting in prominent chain disaster risks and difficult prevention and control. To accurately evaluate the potential flood disaster chain risks in this region, 12 representative evaluation indicators were selected to establish a flood disaster chain risk evaluation system. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method (EW) were adopted to calculate subjective and objective indicator weights, respectively. Game theory was applied to achieve the optimal weight fusion and determine the final indicator weights. On this basis, a variable fuzzy model was constructed to identify flood disaster chain risks, and the Receiver Operating Characteristic-Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC) was used to verify the accuracy and reliability of the model. The results show that cumulative precipitation, terrain slope, and annual maximum precipitation are the core driving factors inducing regional flood disaster chains, with corresponding weights of 0.2058, 0.1293, and 0.0980, respectively. High- and extremely high-risk areas are mainly concentrated in the western and southern river valleys, among which the Zhaitang–Luopoling river reach and the river section from Luopoling Reservoir to Sanjiadian Hub present the most prominent risks. The spatial distribution of risk zones is highly consistent with the actual disaster sites of the July 2023 Haihe River extreme rainstorm event, and the model achieves an AUC value of 0.901, indicating high accuracy and reliable simulation results. This study accurately identifies the core inducing factors and high-risk sections of flood disaster chains in the Guanting Gorge section of the Yongding River, which can provide scientific references and technical support for regional flood disaster chain prevention and control, hydraulic project operation and management, and disaster prevention and mitigation planning. Full article

In cold-region open-pit mine slopes, damage accumulation and mechanical deterioration induced by in situ stress and seasonal freeze–thaw alternation can easily trigger sudden instability. To investigate the effects of temperature difference under coupled constant loading and freeze–thaw action on the mechanical response and failure precursors of rock, based on the self-developed TCDR-I temperature–stress coupled testing system, uniaxial compression tests and real-time acoustic emission monitoring were conducted on water-saturated sandstone under a constant load of 1.4 MPa and multiple freeze–thaw temperature gradients. The mechanical behavior of freeze–thawed water-saturated sandstone and the acoustic emission characteristics during failure were analyzed. Combined with critical slowing down theory, the failure precursor characteristics of water-saturated sandstone under freeze–thaw action were investigated, and the internal mechanism of damage accumulation and defect evolution under the coupled effects of constant load and freeze–thaw temperature difference was revealed. The results show that, with increasing freeze–thaw temperature difference, the number of cracks and crack ratio in the loaded water-saturated sandstone gradually increased, whereas the compressive strength, elastic modulus, and total strain energy gradually decreased. After freeze–thaw treatment at −40 to 20 °C, the compressive strength, elastic modulus, and total strain energy decreased by 19.24%, 13.72%, and 44.77%, respectively, compared with those of the unfrozen–thawed specimens. During specimen failure, the dominant crack type gradually shifted from shear cracking to tensile cracking. The acoustic emission b-value and precursor points identified from multiparameter variance can both be used as criteria for predicting specimen failure. The warning lead time increased with increasing freeze–thaw temperature difference. After freeze–thaw treatment at −40 to 20 °C, the predicted failure times based on these two indicators preceded the actual failure time by 11.05 s and 16.19 s, respectively. The findings provide a theoretical basis for the early warning of sudden disasters in rock masses in cold-region engineering. Full article

In multi-hazard environments, women’s social reproductive labor often constitutes a foundation of community survival, yet remains undertheorized in disaster scholarship. This study contributes to an active scholarly conversation by examining Daya Annisa, a women-led grassroots organization in Bantul Regency, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, a region under continuous geological stress from the Sunda Megathrust, the Opak Fault, and Mount Merapi. Drawing on in-depth interviews and focus group discussions analyzed through Social Reproduction Theory (SRT), with a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) framework reinterpreted as an analytical lens on the structural conditions of reproductive labor, the analysis traces four interlinked practices: preparedness embedded in arisan and pengajian gatherings, community-based vulnerability mapping, trust-based crisis response, and informal post-disaster livelihoods. The paper argues that resilience in such settings is best understood not as a passive capacity to absorb shocks, but as the active, gendered, and largely uncompensated labor through which communities are materially sustained when formal systems are stretched. Three policy shifts follow: long-term flexible funding calibrated to continuous reproductive preparedness; institutional integration of community-generated vulnerability data with appropriate privacy and inclusion safeguards; and inclusion of grassroots women’s organizations as autonomous decision-making actors in disaster governance. Full article

Sustainable regional competitiveness and civil protection have traditionally been treated as distinct fields: the former rooted in regional economics and innovation studies, and the latter in disaster management, public safety, and risk governance. However, increasing climate-related hazards, technological disruptions, geopolitical instability, and the fragility of critical infrastructure demonstrate that competitiveness and resilience are deeply interconnected. This study presents a narrative literature review of publications from 2022 to 2025, integrating insights from evolutionary economic geography, institutional theory, sustainability studies, disaster risk reduction, spatial planning, and governance research. Building on this synthesis, we propose a novel conceptual framework that links civil protection capacity to long-term regional competitiveness. The framework introduces a multi-pillar model encompassing risk governance, institutional quality, critical infrastructure resilience, spatial planning systems, human capital dynamics and demographic stability, social trust and regional legitimacy, innovation driven by risk-management technologies, and multi-level governance coordination. Our analysis highlights how asymmetric threats are characterized by unpredictability, non-linearity, and uneven territorial impacts—interact with structural vulnerabilities, amplifying regional disparities and challenging conventional competitiveness strategies. Importantly, the framework demonstrates that robust institutions and integrated civil protection mechanisms can transform exposure to shocks into opportunities for adaptation, innovation, and structural upgrading. By conceptualizing competitiveness as a dynamic, emergent property shaped by economic, social, and risk-management capacities, this study positions civil protection as a strategic, measurable, and foundational component of sustainable regional development. The framework provides a theoretical foundation for future empirical research, policy design, and multi-criteria assessments aimed at fostering resilience-oriented competitiveness. Full article

Climate change and rapid urbanization are intensifying flood risks in China, particularly in regions with complex terrain and dense populations. Traditional risk assessment methods often lack the flexibility to handle uncertainties in multi-dimensional risk systems. This study proposes a probabilistic flood risk assessment framework integrating Monte Carlo simulation with a composite indicator system from the perspective of disaster system theory. Taking Hunan Province as a case study, we constructed a hierarchical indicator system encompassing environmental susceptibility, hazard intensity, exposure vulnerability, and mitigation capacity. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and coefficient of variation (CV) methods were combined for indicator weighting, and Monte Carlo simulation was employed to quantify uncertainties and classify risk levels. Results reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in flood risk across the province, with high-risk areas concentrated in regions exhibiting intense rainfall, dense river networks, and insufficient mitigation infrastructure. The study provides a transferable, data-driven approach for spatially explicit flood risk zoning, offering evidence-based insights for land-use planning, resilient infrastructure development, and sustainable flood governance. This research contributes to the integration of probabilistic modeling into land system science, supporting disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation strategies aligned with SDG 11. This study also provides policy-relevant insights for regional flood governance by supporting risk-informed land-use planning, targeted infrastructure investment, and adaptive flood management strategies, thereby contributing to more resilient and sustainable land system development under increasing climate uncertainty. Full article

As climate-driven disasters intensify globally, this study investigates how environmental volatility influences the pro-environmental initiatives of micro-entrepreneurs in Chile. While Chile possesses world-class seismic resilience, the 2020–2025 period marked a dramatic shift toward hydro-climatological extremes, including mega-fires and catastrophic flooding. Integrating construal level theory, protection motivation theory, and the concept of focusing events, this research examines the psychological and structural drivers of business adaptation. Results indicate that residing in disaster-prone regions is insufficient to trigger proactivity; instead, a stark distinction exists between abstract geographic proximity and the behavior triggered by personal exposure. Furthermore, mediation analysis provides mixed support for the role of business profit; while profit loss negatively mediated equipment efficiency and recycling, the magnitude was marginal. This coping gap suggests that resource-constrained actors favor low-cost survivalist tactics over systemic shifts due to depleted organizational slack. Ultimately, the study highlights that disasters are powerful but inefficient teachers; without addressing technical and financial barriers to mitigation, global supply chains remain fragile despite localized disaster experiences. Full article

Background: Despite advances in monitoring and forecasting systems, natural disasters continue to cause significant human losses. During the response phase, fast decisions are required to allocate limited resources, particularly rescue helicopters, which play a key role in reaching inaccessible areas. However, helicopter allocation involves trade-offs between efficiency and operational safety under uncertain conditions. Methods: This study proposes a decision-support methodology based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for allocating rescue helicopters during disaster response. The approach integrates Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) and Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) to structure objectives, assign weights, and evaluate alternatives using criteria related to mission safety, response time, and expected number of rescued victims. The method is illustrated through a simulated flood response scenario in a Brazilian regional context. Results: The results show that the model allows decision-makers to compare allocation scenarios and to make explicit the trade-offs between operational efficiency and safety. The application indicates that small reductions in efficiency may lead to relevant gains in operational safety, particularly under adverse weather conditions. Conclusions: The proposed approach provides a transparent and traceable structure for supporting helicopter allocation decisions during disaster response. It contributes to more consistent decision-making in critical operations, especially in contexts characterized by uncertainty and time pressure. Full article

Guangdong south-pearl aquaculture, a cornerstone of China’s marine industry under the Rural Revitalization Strategy, contributes over 70% of national output but faces escalating marine disasters that expose systemic barriers to resilience. This study develops a diagnostic multidimensional framework for post-disaster resilience using a Grounded Theory design. We conducted 32 semi-structured interviews with participants from five key enterprises and cooperatives in the core Leizhou production region. Interview transcripts were analyzed in NVivo through open, axial, and selective coding with constant comparison. Open coding generated 136 initial concepts, axial coding consolidated them into 25 categories, and selective coding integrated these into four core dimensions: technological adaptation gaps, institutional trust deficits, human-resource succession ruptures, and ecological path dependence. These dimensions constitute the core phenomenon, termed the four-dimensional synergistic dilemma. Building on this empirically grounded diagnosis, we propose a multidimensional collaborative recovery framework that links each dimension to actionable levers, including stress-tolerant breeding and ecological aquaculture models, targeted policy instruments and adaptive insurance, industry-education pipelines to preserve craftsmanship, and spatial planning with coordinated pollution control. The study provides a theoretically informed and empirically validated model for enhancing industrial resilience, offering actionable insights for the sustainable revitalization of coastal specialty industries. Full article

Recognized as the world’s “Third Pole”, the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau poses significant challenges to human health due to its harsh environment. With improved transportation and a tourism boom industry bringing over 90 million low-altitude residents to the plateau annually, hypoxia has become a critical concern. This study analyzes oxygen content data (2017–2022) together with environmental variables including elevation, temperature, precipitation, and vegetation cover, using the GeoDetector method to identify key drivers of near-surface oxygen distribution. Within the framework of disaster system theory, we evaluated the risk of hypoxia among short-term residents. Results show that the near-surface oxygen distribution across the plateau is primarily regulated by climatic and topographic factors. Interactions among environmental variables markedly enhance the explanatory power for spatial variation in oxygen content, with the coupled effects of humidity, atmospheric pressure, elevation, and temperature being especially pronounced. A high hypoxia hazard prevails across the plateau, particularly in the high-altitude western, northern, and central regions. The spatial distribution of hypoxia risk is strongly shaped by human activities, with high-risk zones clustering in densely populated towns, transportation corridors, and regions of intensive tourism. This results in a distinctive coexistence of “high hazard–low exposure” and “low hazard–high exposure” patterns. These findings provide scientific insights for tourism planning, health protection, and risk management in plateau regions. Full article

To address the increasing threat of urban cascading disasters to the resilient development of cities, this paper establishes an urban cascading disaster resilience evaluation system from the three dimensions of “physical space–social space–information space”. Based on the idea of game theory, the entropy weight–CRITIC method is used to obtain the optimal combination weight of the indicators. Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, the TOPSIS model is used to calculate the urban cascading disaster resilience values of each city from 2014 to 2023. Then, ArcGIS (10.8) spatial analysis tools, Kernel density analysis, spatial correlation analysis, and the geographical detector are used to explore the spatio-temporal pattern evolution, spatial correlation, and driving factors of urban cascading disaster resilience in Jiangsu Province. The results show that (1) there is obvious regional heterogeneity in the urban cascading disaster resilience of Jiangsu Province in space; (2) the overall urban cascading disaster resilience of Jiangsu Province shows an upward trend over time; (3) there is a significant positive correlation between the urban cascading disaster resilience of Jiangsu Province and geographical location; and (4) there are high-level driving factors in each space. Full article

This study takes 22 megacities and super-large cities in China as research subjects, systematically exploring the coupled system relationship between digital maturity and resilient cities. Using methods such as information entropy theory, coupling coordination degree model, and grey relational coefficient measurement, it conducts comprehensive evaluation analysis, coupling coordination analysis, and factor contribution analysis. The results indicate that digital maturity and resilient cities exhibit a mutually reinforcing relationship. The positive interaction and coupling between digital maturity and resilient cities development have further promoted innovation in China’s urban governance and contributed to the long-term sustainable development of cities. Although the digital maturity and resilience levels of these cities show a fluctuating upward trend, they have not yet reached an ideal state, and significant differences exist among different urban clusters and regions. Megacities and super-large cities demonstrate high coupling characteristics among their internal subsystems, but their coordination level remains relatively low. Key factors such as digital governance policies, digital economy, and disaster-resistant infrastructure play a crucial role in advancing the sustainable development of resilient cities. Therefore, it is urgent to improve the coupling coordination mechanism to enhance sustainable development capacity. Full article

Under the dual pressures of global climate change and accelerated urbanization, the impacts of flood disasters on urban systems are becoming increasingly pronounced. Enhancing regional resilience has emerged as a critical factor in achieving sustainable urban development. Compared with existing methods such as CRITIC–Entropy, PCA–AHP, or SWMM-based resilience evaluations, grounded in urban resilience theory, this study takes Fangshan District in Beijing as empirical research to construct a post-flood disaster resilience evaluation index system spanning five dimensions (ecological, social, engineering, economic, and institutional) and leverages the integrated DEMATEL-TOPSIS-AISM model to synergistically identify key drivers, evaluate performance, and uncover internal hierarchies, thereby overcoming the limitations of existing research approaches. The findings indicate that the DEMATEL analysis identified the frequency of heavy rainfall (a12 = 0.889) and the proportion of flood disaster information databases (c51 = 1.153) as key driving factors. The TOPSIS assessment reveals that Fangshan District exhibits the strongest resilience in the economic dimension (Relative Closeness C = 0.21200), while the institutional dimension is the weakest (C = 0.00000), the AISM model constructs a hierarchical topology from a cause–effect priority perspective, elucidating the causal relationships and transmission mechanisms among factors across different dimensions. This study pioneers a novel perspective for urban resilience assessment, thereby establishing a theoretical foundation and practical references for enhancing flood resilience and advancing resilient city development. Full article

Disaster headlines often underscore devastation and loss while overlooking success stories where proactive disaster risk reduction (DRRM) measures have averted catastrophe, saved lives, and reduced economic damage. This study addresses the gap in documentation and analysis of DRRM success stories in Africa, particularly within the Southern African Development Community (SADC), arguing that the absence of such narratives hampers a shift from reactive to proactive disaster risk governance. The research aims to extract critical lessons from success stories for enhancing future preparedness and response frameworks. A qualitative research design was employed, integrating document analysis, expert interviews, field observations, and practitioner workshops. Data was triangulated from diverse sources, including national disaster management agency reports (e.g., South Africa’s NDMC, Botswana’s NDMO, Mozambique’s INGC), peer-reviewed literature, UNDRR reports, SADC policy documents, and first-hand experiences from the authors’ consultancy work in the African Union’s biennial DRRM reporting processes. Case studies examined include Mozambique’s response to Cyclone Idai in 2019, South Africa’s drought and flood risk governance (e.g., the 2023 floods in Eastern and Western Cape), and Malawi’s flood resilience programs. Findings reveal that successful DRRM outcomes are driven by a combination of anticipatory governance, community-based preparedness, integration of Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKSs), and investment in infrastructure and ecosystem-based adaptation. These cases demonstrate that locally embedded, yet scientifically informed, interventions enhance resilience and reduce disaster impacts. The study underscores the relevance of theoretical frameworks such as resilience theory, narrative theory, and social learning in interpreting how success stories contribute to institutional memory and adaptive capacity. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for institutionalizing success-story documentation in national DRRM frameworks, scaling up community engagement in risk governance, and fostering regional knowledge-sharing platforms within the SADC. Furthermore, the paper advocates for making DRRM success stories more visible and actionable to transition toward more anticipatory, inclusive, and effective disaster risk management systems. Full article

The emergency industry refers to a comprehensive industrial system of products, technologies, and services aimed at preventing, responding to, and mitigating emergencies. The emergency industry is primarily oriented toward disaster prevention and mitigation, providing direct support to enhance societal resilience. Given the frequent occurrence of natural disasters and the strategic layout of global emergency technologies, it is of great practical significance to study how the science and technology systems of disaster-prone countries respond. Based on the theories of disaster economics and innovation geography, this paper constructs a mediation effect model to investigate how China improves the key technological capabilities of its emergency industry through three response pathways—demand stimulation, technological advancement, and educational enhancement—following natural disasters. The stepwise testing approach, which integrates the mediation effect model with the spatial Durbin model, consists of three stages. The first stage tests the total effect model to assess how disasters impact local key technologies and their spatial spillover on adjacent regions. The second stage examines the direct influence of disasters on the three pathways and their spatial spillover using the mediator equation. The third stage uses the outcome equation with the mediator to evaluate how the pathways affect local key technologies and neighboring regions after controlling for disaster impacts. We offer both theoretical insights and empirical evidence to support specialized research on technological diffusion induced by disasters. The result shows that although the direct negative impact of disasters is inevitable, the institutional advantages of China’s emergency rescue and innovative collaborative efforts have played a significant role in promoting key technologies. Under the new national system, China is progressively establishing a spatial framework wherein emergency products are allocated across regions, key technologies are synergistically integrated, and the development of emergency-related disciplines is promoted through regional collaboration in response to the frequent occurrence of natural disasters. This demonstrates that the advancement of key technologies in China’s emergency industry is significantly supported by inter-regional cooperation and linkage mechanisms. Full article

In recent years, urban risk incidents have become more common. Enhancing infrastructure resilience is not only crucial for adapting to climate change and addressing natural disasters but also serves as a key cornerstone for sustaining urban sustainable development. The research objects for this study are 17 coastal cities in the Bohai Rim region of China. Based on the Complex Adaptive System (CAS) theory, from the multi-dimensional perspective of urban sustainable development, a resilience evaluation index system covering five subsystems, namely transportation, water supply and drainage, energy, environment, and communication, is constructed. Employing panel data from 2013 to 2022, this study develops the entropy weight–TOPSIS model to quantify resilience levels, and applies the obstacle degree model, geographical detector, and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model to analyze influencing factors. The main research results are as follows: (1) The regional infrastructure resilience shows a slow upward trend, but the insufficient synergy among subsystems restricts urban sustainable development; (2) The primary barrier is the drainage and water supply system, and the environmental and communication systems’ notable spatial heterogeneity will result in uneven regional sustainable development; (3) The influence of driving factors such as economic level gradually weakens over time. Based on the above research results, the following paths for resilience improvement and urban sustainable development are proposed: Improve the regional coordination and long-term governance mechanism; Focus on key shortcomings and implement a resilience enhancement plan for water supply and drainage systems; Implement dynamic and precise policy adjustments to stimulate multiple drivers; Enhance smart empowerment and build a digital twin-based collaborative management platform. Full article