Search Results (349)

Prices and quantities in agricultural commodity and food product markets are subject to constant changes due to evolving supply and demand conditions. Big and sudden shifts in supply or demand may lead to price movements that bring negative consequences for food producers or consumers. Factors causing such movements can be of different natures, but substantial changes in the world energy price levels are supposed to be one of the most important. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of global energy price shocks on the evolution of food commodities and food consumer prices. Using the World Bank data on the respective price indices, we looked for shocks in these data series by utilizing statistical tools. Having identified three global energy price shocks in the period 2000–2024 induced by the financial crisis of 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the outbreak of war in Ukraine, their influence on the world agricultural commodity prices and food consumer prices was assessed. It was found that the series of energy, food commodity, and food consumer price indices were related in the long term. Also, the occurrence of global energy price shocks to a visible extent translated into global food commodity and food consumer price shocks. Applying various statistical and econometric techniques, including Chow tests and MS-VAR modelling, enables the identification of which breaking points led to regime changes between the analysed variables. The most sensitive to the structural breaking points appeared to be the relation between energy and consumer food prices. This discovery can be considered our major contribution. Full article

The use of liquid hydrogen (LH₂) as a civil aircraft fuel is gaining attention due to increasing environmental concerns associated with conventional fossil fuels. The EU-funded HASTA (Hydrogen Aircraft Sloshing Tank Advancement) project aims to investigate, both experimentally and numerically, the storage of LH₂ in civil aircraft, ultimately providing design guidelines for cryogenic fuel tanks. A critical phenomenon affecting airborne cryogenic tanks is the ullage pressure drop, which can occur due to in-flight excitations that induce mixing between the liquid and gas phases. As an initial step toward understanding the sloshing dynamics in LH₂ tanks, this study investigated isothermal sloshing in a small-scale, horizontal cylindrical tank. An experimental campaign was conducted using an 80 mm × 120 mm cylindrical horizontal tank, partially filled with deionised water and subjected to vertical sinusoidal excitation. The objective was to map the liquid response regimes to the excitation frequency–amplitude range of interest. A sloshing regime map was obtained, providing a key understanding of the liquid dynamics, indicating excitation amplitudes and frequencies that can lead to phase mixing. Ten distinct sloshing modes were observed within the 4–10 Hz excitation frequency range, with this study focusing on mode (1 0), the lowest-frequency response and particularly critical for such systems. The modal frequency and damping were obtained using a sloshing surface identification algorithm, and the relationship between the sloshing force and tank displacement/velocity was analysed to provide insight into the sloshing regime. Apart from providing important insights into the sloshing regimes inside horizontal cylindrical tanks, this research also establishes the experimental characteristics needed for future numerical model calibration. Full article

This study proposes a comprehensive methodology for the experimental characterization and non-linear dynamic modelling of Polycrystalline Diamond (PCD) bearings, establishing a high-fidelity digital twin approach for the condition monitoring of rotating machinery. The research addresses complex rotor–stator interactions through the development of a multibody numerical framework. A structural 1D Finite Element (FE) model of the stator assembly was first calibrated via experimental modal analysis, achieving a high correlation with the first four bending modes and a maximum frequency discrepancy of only 1.4%. This validated structure was integrated into a non-linear multibody environment to simulate transient rub-impact events at rotational speeds up to 5500 rpm across varying clearance configurations. The model successfully captures the transition from stable periodic orbital motion to the stochastic and chaotic regimes observed in high-clearance setups. Frequency-domain validation further confirms the model’s accuracy in identifying supersynchronous harmonics and energy distribution patterns. Quantitative analysis shows that high-clearance configurations generate impact forces exceeding 6000 N, providing critical data for structural health assessment. These results demonstrate that the proposed digital twin serves as a robust physical foundation for diagnostic systems, enabling the identification of contact-induced vibrational signatures that are essential for training prognostic algorithms. This approach facilitates the autonomous monitoring of critical rotating machinery in demanding industrial and subsea applications, supporting the transition toward active balancing and model-based vibration control strategies. Full article

Wind dynamics in urban environments exhibit non-stationarity and marked spatial variability, complicating stochastic modeling when a single global distribution is assumed. This article discusses the estimation of wind density under quasi-stationary regimes at the local level using SICABI, a two-phase framework: (i) Stationary Region Identification (ISR) estimates, through spectral power analysis, a specific dominant period for each location and validates the induced subsampling using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test, and (ii) RAPID adjusts an adaptive parametric density by recursively updating the mixture parameters and creating new components when a normalized membership distance exceeds a threshold. The analysis uses wind speed records collected from eight stations in the Metropolitan Area of Queretaro, Mexico, during the period from 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, aggregated at a 10 min resolution, from which $X_{\delta ,s}$ is constructed for each site. RAPID is compared against Gaussian Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) with Silverman bandwidth and EM-fitted Gaussian mixtures with BIC-based selection ($K_{max}=12$). The resulting densities were compared with an empirical density estimated from a histogram over a fixed grid ($m=50$) using the MISE and RMSE metrics. The results reveal marked site-dependent differences in dominant periodicity and residual behavior, including asymmetry and heavy tails. ISR identified dominant periods ranging from 37 to 166 days, and RAPID adapted its complexity with $K_s\in [5,10]$ without fixing the number of mixture components in advance. Quantitatively, RAPID achieved the lowest RMSE at 6/8 sites and the lowest MISE at 5/8 sites, while also exhibiting shorter execution times than KDE and MoG under the same input $X_{\delta ,s}$. The results support RAPID as a competitive adaptive method for site-specific density estimation in non-stationary urban climate signals. In this context, local regimes can be viewed as approximate invariants under time translation in the weak stochastic sense, while deviations from this assumption are reflected in increased distributional complexity across sites. Full article

Old-vine vineyards often contain dozens of grapevine varieties intermingled and irregularly distributed, making plant-level varietal identification slow and expensive when based on ampelography or molecular approaches. This paper proposes a field-oriented computer-vision pipeline for Vitis vinifera variety identification using images with a natural background from the historic “Vinha Maria Teresa” parcel (Quinta do Crasto, Portugal). A single-class YOLO11 detector is trained to localize the vine leaf and generate standardized crops, and a YOLO11 classifier is then fine-tuned on leaf regions of interest (ROIs) for eight selected varieties in the Douro UNESCO region. We annotated 2015 vineyard images for classification and supplemented detection training with 2648 additional leaf images; detectors (YOLO11n/s/m) were benchmarked under four augmentation regimes and evaluated on a fixed 48-image subset, including runtime on CPU and GPU. The best detector reached mAP@50–95 of 0.918 on the benchmark, while YOLO11n achieved ∼27 FPS on CPU for fast cropping. On a 303-image test set, the best classifier (YOLO11s with mixed augmentations) achieved 94.06% Top-1 accuracy, 93.92% macro-F1, and 100% Top-5 accuracy with remaining errors concentrated among morphologically similar varieties. To assess deployment-oriented performance, classifiers trained under three input settings (manual crops, detector-generated crops, and full images) were evaluated on a held-out 48-image benchmark subset; removing the detection step reduced Top-1 accuracy from 75.00% to 68.75%, while the gap between manual and automatic crops was only 2.44 pp on successfully detected images with detection failures (14.6%) representing the primary operational bottleneck. Repeated retraining of the best manual-crop YOLO11s configuration across multiple random seeds showed stable performance with low variability in Top-1 accuracy and macro-F1. Under identical training conditions, ResNet50 and EfficientNet-B0 provided competitive baselines, but YOLO11s remained the strongest overall model on the held-out field benchmark. These results indicate that lightweight leaf detection plus crop-based classification can support scalable varietal identification in old vineyards under realistic acquisition conditions. Full article

A rapid quasi-one-dimensional (quasi-1D) reacting-flow analysis code was developed for the preliminary assessment of rocket-based combined cycle engines over a broad flight envelope. The internal flow was modeled as steady and quasi-1D in a variable-area duct by solving the coupled conservation equations together with species transport, and finite-rate chemical kinetics were included to represent combustion-induced heat release and composition change. To incorporate configuration-dependent mixing effects that affect RBCC heat release evolution and thermal choking tendencies, a streamwise mixing efficiency distribution was extracted from non-reacting 3D CFD and prescribed as an input to the quasi-1D formulation to represent the progressive availability of reactable fuel along the flowpath. A mode-dependent solution strategy was established by separating the computation into scramjet mode and ramjet mode procedures with a switching criterion based on whether a sonic condition occurs within the combustor, allowing thermal choking and mode transition behavior to be addressed within a single framework. The numerical solver was implemented in Python 3.12.2 and integrated using a stiff ordinary differential equation (ODE) scheme to ensure robust convergence in the presence of reaction-induced stiffness. Verification against previously published hydrogen-fueled scramjet results reproduced the overall streamwise trends of key quantities including Mach number, pressure, temperature, and density. The developed code was then applied to an RBCC configuration under operating conditions representative of ERJ and ESJ regimes, and the quasi-1D predictions were compared with cross-section-averaged 3D RANS CFD results, showing consistent mode identification and comparable axial behavior at a level suitable for preliminary analysis with substantially reduced computational cost. Full article

SAG grinding mills represent critical energy-intensive operations in copper concentrators, accounting for 30%–50% of total plant energy consumption. The accurate prediction of mill power draw and production rate under varying operational conditions is essential for real-time control, production planning, and energy management. This study presents a comprehensive comparison of ML algorithms for modeling Production and Power in a Chilean copper mining industry. Deterministic and stochastic models were fitted and validated using industrial data from a Chilean copper operation. More representative models were re-estimated and subsequently evaluated under different operating regimes to examine their predictive performance under aggregated conditions of the feeding variables. This procedure allowed for the identification of the modeling approaches that provide the most robust performance across varying operational regimes. The results show that XGB achieved the best predictive performance, with test RMSE and R² values of 87.98 and 97.35% for SAG Production, and 431.11 and 95.11% for SAG Power, respectively. Stochastic approaches provided complementary uncertainty quantification, supporting risk-informed decision making under variable operating conditions. The analysis by operational regime indicates that XGB presents better fit in the Thick hydraulic regime, for both responses’ variables, which could be explained why a dense pulp operation provides more predictable grinding dynamics. The comparative analysis reveals trade-offs between model complexity, interpretability, computational requirements, and predictive performance, offering practical guidance for selecting appropriate modeling frameworks based on specific operational objectives and data availability in mineral processing applications. Full article

DBSCAN is widely used to identify structured regions in unlabeled data, but its performance depends critically on the selection of the neighborhood parameter $\epsilon$. Traditional heuristics for estimating $\epsilon$ often become unreliable in high-dimensional or varying-density settings because they rely heavily on local geometric criteria and may fail under smooth transitions or topological ambiguity. This work presents a three-level perspective on DBSCAN hyperparameter selection. At the algorithmic level, $\epsilon$ controls neighborhood connectivity and structural transitions in clustering. At the modeling level, the ordered k-distance signal is approximated through a surrogate dynamical estimation framework inspired by a mass–spring–damper system. At the causal level, the resulting estimator is interpreted through interventions on its internal threshold-selection mechanism. The proposed method models the variation of $\epsilon$ using ordinary differential equations defined on the ordered k-distance signal, enabling analysis of structural transitions in density organization via a surrogate dynamical representation. System identification is performed using L-BFGS-B optimization on the smoothed k-distance curve, while the system dynamics are solved with the fourth-order Runge–Kutta method. The resulting estimator identifies transition regions that are structurally informative for $\epsilon$ selection in DBSCAN. To analyze the estimator at the intervention level, Pearl’s do-calculus is used to compute the Average Causal Effect (ACE). The method was evaluated on synthetic benchmarks and on the Covtype dataset, including scenarios with multi-density overlap and dimensionality up to ${\mathbb{R}}^{10}$. The resulting ACE values, $+0.9352$, $+0.5148$, and $+0.9246$, indicate that the proposed estimator improves intervention-based $\epsilon$ selection relative to the geometric baseline across the evaluated datasets. Its practical computational cost is dominated by nearest-neighbor search, behaving approximately as $O(NlogN)$ under favorable indexing conditions and degrading toward $O\left(N^2\right)$ in high-dimensional or weak-pruning regimes. Full article

This paper presents a hybrid econometric and machine-learning framework for forecasting GDP that bridges long-run structure with short-run regime dynamics. Using annual World Bank data spanning 1960 to 2024, the framework combines three complementary components: an ARIMA baseline that captures persistence, a three-state Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that provides probabilistic regime identification, and an LSTM-based extension that learns nonlinear patterns associated with regime transitions. Detailed out-of-sample forecasting evidence is reported for five representative countries (the United States, China, Germany, India, and Greece), chosen to illustrate performance across different volatility profiles and economic environments. Across these case studies, the integrated HMM–LSTM approach often delivers lower forecast errors than the benchmark alternatives, although the magnitude of the gains is not uniform across countries. Beyond point forecasting performance, the regime layer yields an interpretable probabilistic representation of business cycle conditions that can support real-time monitoring and early-warning assessment. By combining transparency with adaptability, the proposed framework contributes to the forecasting literature and provides a practical decision-support tool under heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. Full article

Conventional VAR-based volatility spillover measures rely on homoskedasticity and single-Gaussian assumptions, limiting their ability to capture structural breaks and heterogeneous shocks during crises. This study develops a flexible framework to analyze volatility transmission in U.S. commodity markets under multiple crisis regimes. We propose a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive Mixture Normal (BSVAR-MIX) model that embeds finite normal mixtures within a mixture-based heteroskedastic structural VAR framework. The model combines generalized forecast error variance decomposition with posterior-probability weighting. Daily data for eight U.S. benchmark commodities across food, energy, and precious metals markets are examined over the 2008–2016 global financial crisis and the 2017–2025 multi-crisis period, including COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The BSVAR-MIX framework provides a flexible descriptive setting for capturing multimodal shocks, heteroskedastic volatility states, and regime-dependent spillover patterns in commodity markets. Empirically, Gold and oil dominate systemic volatility transmission, soybeans amplify food–energy spillovers, while coal and wheat exhibit rising fragility under policy and geopolitical shocks. Assets commonly viewed as safe havens may contribute to systemic stress during extreme events. Overall, the framework offers a robust tool for structural shock identification and cross-commodity risk monitoring relevant to U.S. macroprudential policy. Full article

Accurate modeling of smart composite dampers is crucial for simulation and model-based control. This study focuses on the constitutive modeling of a novel damper that synergistically combines an Entangled Metallic Wire Mesh (EMWM) with a magnetorheological (MR) fluid. Unlike traditional MR dampers, the interaction between the field-responsive MR fluid and the rate-sensitive, deformable EMWM matrix introduces strong coupled current–frequency dependence. To capture this essential characteristic, a control-oriented, bivariate (current–frequency) hysteresis model is formulated, wherein all parameters are explicit, continuous functions of both the control current (I) and excitation frequency (f). A systematic two-step identification method is employed to derive these functions from dynamic tests. A key finding is that the identified damping exponent (α) consistently exceeds unity across the tested operational range. This quantitatively indicates a transition from viscous-dominated to inertial-flow-dominated dissipation within the EMWM matrix, a distinctive mechanism attributed to non-Darcian flow in its porous structure. The fully parameterized model demonstrates high fidelity (R² > 0.99) within the characterized low-frequency, small-amplitude regime and shows reliable predictive capability for interpolated conditions. The presented model serves as a ready-to-use constitutive tool for the simulation and design of low-frequency vibration isolation systems utilizing EMWM-MR composites, and the revealed inertial flow mechanism provides fundamental insight for the development of next-generation adaptive dampers. Full article

Despite their significance as forensic targets, alkyl nitrites, classified as illegal drugs, have received little attention in forensic analysis due to their high volatility and chemical instability. Here, we present a high-performance analytical approach using a pulsed dc soft plasma ionization-quadrupole mass spectrometry (pulsed dc SPI-MS) system, uniquely designed to operate using ambient air as the discharge gas. In this system, the modulation of the duty ratio functions as a “structural probe” to identify reactive isomers. Unlike conventional dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) sources that typically operate at atmospheric pressure, our SPI system utilizes a controlled pressure regime of several kPa, where the nitrogen in the ambient air effectively functions as a third-body gas to suppress excessive internal energy. The control of the duty ratio in our pulsed dc SPI source allowed for the successful manipulation of ion–molecule reaction pathways for highly reactive analytes. By optimizing several parameters, including duty ratio and discharge pressure, we achieved a unique ionization regime where the molecular-related ion [2 M − 3 H]⁺ was predominantly detected as the base peak with minimal fragmentation. Notably, by reducing the duty ratio from 50% to 5%, both the target ion occupancy and signal intensity were significantly enhanced, achieving a limit of detection (LOD) as low as 0.16 parts per million by volume (ppmv). This sensitivity is several orders of magnitude higher than previously reported thresholds, enabling rapid identification of C4–C6 alkyl nitrite isomers. This method transforms the duty ratio into a powerful diagnostic tool for identifying reactive intermediates, providing a practical and efficient approach for the onsite identification of illegal alkyl nitrites in forensic and security fields. Full article

Internal reconnection events (IREs) are rapid magnetohydrodynamic phenomena that play an important role in the confinement and stability of spherical tokamak plasmas. Reliable identification of IREs in experimental data is challenging due to short discharge durations, ambiguous event boundaries, and the limited availability of labeled data. In this study, we propose an unsupervised, event-level IRE detection framework based on anomaly detection techniques and apply it to experimental data from the VEST spherical tokamak. The proposed framework combines a two-stage detection strategy using plasma current and $H_{\alpha }$ emission signals with sliding-window segmentation and event-level evaluation, enabling physically meaningful IRE identification without labeled training data. Three unsupervised models—K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), One-Class Support Vector Machine (OCSVM), and an autoencoder (AE)—are evaluated within a unified framework. All models achieve stable detection performance, with precision exceeding 80% and recall above 70% under a precision-oriented operating point. To enhance detection robustness, a KNN-based cleaning procedure is introduced during training to remove noise-driven, locally isolated windows, significantly reducing spurious detections while preserving physically meaningful IRE signatures. Event-level analysis indicates that missed detections under this operating regime predominantly correspond to weak events with limited impact on global plasma behavior. The proposed framework is fully unsupervised, computationally efficient, and readily extensible to other spherical tokamak devices, providing a flexible foundation for incorporating additional diagnostics, such as Mirnov coil signals, toward precursor-aware detection and future predictive modeling of IRE activity. Full article

The distribution of gas–water two-phase flow in near-horizontal wells is influenced by factors such as wellbore inclination and phase flow rates. To explore these effects, a laboratory loop simulating downhole conditions was used to conduct experiments under varying inclinations and flow parameters. Flow patterns were classified based on visual observations and existing theory, and scatter plots were used to analyze flow regime boundaries. Three classification models were developed and compared. The proposed PNN–XGBoost framework integrates explicit second-order feature crossing with XGBoost-based importance selection prior to probabilistic neural network classification. Among the evaluated models, the PNN–XGBoost approach achieved the highest predictive performance. The model was further validated using 3D wellbore holdup imaging, confirming its robustness in flow pattern identification and its applicability to practical well logging interpretation. Full article

This paper presents a theoretical framework for predicting molten jet breakup at the outlet of a rotating granulation system operating without forced excitation. The study focuses on the critical regime in which mechanical excitation is absent, and jet disintegration is governed solely by intrinsic hydrodynamic instabilities. The analysis is based on the linear stability theory of viscous liquid jets, employing the Rayleigh–Plateau and Tomotika approaches adapted to melt conditions typical of industrial granulation processes. The Navier–Stokes equations are formulated in a cylindrical coordinate system for an axisymmetric, incompressible viscous jet with appropriate kinematic and dynamic boundary conditions at the free surface. The breakup mechanism is characterized using key dimensionless parameters, including the Ohnesorge, Weber, Reynolds, and Capillary numbers, enabling identification of the dominant instability regime. Analytical expressions are derived for the most unstable wavelength, perturbation growth rate, breakup time, and characteristic droplet diameter. These relationships are evaluated for representative thermophysical properties of molten urea. Theoretical predictions obtained from classical Rayleigh theory, viscosity-corrected models, and modern empirical correlations show strong agreement, with deviations not exceeding 7%. Sensitivity analysis indicates limited dependence of the predicted droplet diameter on moderate variations in viscosity, surface tension, and jet velocity. The proposed model provides a physically grounded basis for predicting and controlling granule size distribution in rotating granulation systems operating without external mechanical excitation. Full article