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Agriculture
Special Issues
Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets
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Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets

A special issue of Agriculture (ISSN 2077-0472). This special issue belongs to the section "Agricultural Economics, Policies and Rural Management".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 28 February 2026 | Viewed by 6260

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Mariusz Hamulczuk

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Guest Editor
Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences (SGGW), 02-787 Warsaw, Poland
Interests: agricultural economics; market integration; vertical and horizontal price transmission; agricultural policy; international trade; commodity markets
Prof. Dr. Karolina Pawlak

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Economics and Economic Policy in Agribusiness, Faculty of Economics, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Wojska Polskiego 28, 60-637 Poznan, Poland
Interests: agricultural economics; international economics; international trade and trade policy; foreign direct investment; international competitiveness; regional integration; agricultural policy; agricultural markets; food industry; food security; general and partial equilibrium modeling
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Katarzyna Czech

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Econometrics and Statistics, Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, Nowoursynowska 166, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland
Interests: time series analysis; commodity prices; commodity markets financialization; Dutch disease; price volatility and risk management
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Well-functioning, integrated, and competitive agri-food commodity markets are key to promoting the efficient allocation and distribution of resources and goods. The level of prices and trade opportunities conditions the decisions of producers and consumers. High volatility in agricultural trade and prices is observed in the era of globalisation, climate change, and political turmoil, hindering rational decisions. Therefore, the dynamics of these phenomena and the economic effects of ongoing changes require continuous observations and research.

This Special Issue will promote a deeper understanding of price changes, trade dynamics in agri-food products, and their causes and effects. The recent events that we have witnessed require deep analyses from different perspectives. We believe that the research conducted and published here will not only be of great importance from a cognitive point of view but will also help experts to formulate practical recommendations for economic policy.

Original research papers, including theoretical elaborations, methodology studies, and empirical analyses concerning the price and trade dynamics, are welcome. In particular, studies employing various quantitative methods are desired. Literature review papers are also encouraged in these areas. In this Special Issue, original research articles and reviews are welcome. Agricultural commodity markets research areas may include (but are not limited to) the following:

  • Vertical and horizontal price transmission;
  • Price volatility and price risk;
  • Price discovery in futures and spot markets;
  • The dynamics of international trade;
  • Drivers of prices and trade over time;
  • Impact of policies and/or external shocks/events on price and trade fluctuations;
  • Novel methods for and methodology studies on price and trade dynamics.

Dr. Mariusz Hamulczuk
Prof. Dr. Karolina Pawlak
Dr. Katarzyna Czech
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 250 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for assessment.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Agriculture is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • commodity market
  • agri-food sector
  • agri-food prices
  • price forecasting
  • price volatility
  • futures markets
  • market integration
  • price transmission
  • price and trade modelling
  • impact assessment
  • international trade
  • trade policy

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Further information on MDPI's Special Issue policies can be found here.

Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

30 pages, 4667 KB  
Article
Cross-Hedging Mexican Lemon Prices with US Agricultural Futures: Evidence from the Surplus Efficient Frontier
by Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres, José Álvarez-García and María de la Cruz del Río-Rama
Agriculture 2025, 15(24), 2601; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15242601 - 16 Dec 2025
Viewed by 266
Abstract
This paper tested the use of the surplus efficient frontier (a minimum tracking error portfolio selection method) to select the optimal hedging portfolio that replicates the best Mexican #4 lemon price in a t + 1 and t + 4 week hedging scenario. [...] Read more.
This paper tested the use of the surplus efficient frontier (a minimum tracking error portfolio selection method) to select the optimal hedging portfolio that replicates the best Mexican #4 lemon price in a t + 1 and t + 4 week hedging scenario. Using data on the nine most traded agricultural futures in the US from January 2000 to February 2025, we tested hedging effectiveness across 502 futures portfolios in a weekly backtest. The results suggest that a corn and wheat portfolio increases the hedging effectiveness of the lemon price by 0.7033 or 70.33%. A result that, including the impact of trading fees and taxes, leads to a reduction in income risk to a lemon seller in a t + 1 week hedging horizon. The results suggest that a public or private financial institution could take a short position in such a portfolio to provide a hedge at a price that finances the spot/future price difference at minimum cost to Mexican taxpayers. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets)
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18 pages, 2548 KB  
Article
Economic Determinants of the Honey Market in Poland
by Piotr Semkiw and Dariusz Gerula
Agriculture 2025, 15(23), 2458; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15232458 - 27 Nov 2025
Viewed by 525
Abstract
The aim of this study was to analyse the economic conditions of the beekeeping sector in Poland between 2019 and 2024, with particular emphasis on production costs, price formation mechanisms, the foreign trade balance, and the structure of honey supply. The analysis was [...] Read more.
The aim of this study was to analyse the economic conditions of the beekeeping sector in Poland between 2019 and 2024, with particular emphasis on production costs, price formation mechanisms, the foreign trade balance, and the structure of honey supply. The analysis was based on data from public institutions, beekeeping organisations, individual beekeepers, and the authors’ own research and analyses. The results indicate a clear increase in domestic honey production, which reached 31 thousand tonnes in 2024, confirming the growing potential of the sector. Poland is among the largest honey producers in the European Union. The market structure is dominated by direct sales; however, as production scale increases, wholesale channels become more important. Apiary size remains a key factor influencing unit costs and profitability—commercial apiaries benefit from economies of scale, while smaller operations have limited investment capacity. During the analysed period, the sector faced significant cost pressures driven by high inflation and rising prices of beekeeping production inputs. The market analysis shows increasing competitive pressure, particularly in the wholesale segment, intensified by low-priced imported honey. The oversupply of popular honey types reduces profitability and weakens beekeepers’ bargaining position. The future development of the sector should focus on increasing the added value of production, diversifying distribution channels, expanding premium segments, and building strong and competitive brands. Ensuring the stability of the sector is crucial not only for the agri-food economy but also for ecosystem balance and food security. In this context, proactive measures and the consideration of appropriate market protection instruments are essential to mitigate the effects of market imbalances and enhance the sector’s resilience to future economic shocks. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets)
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16 pages, 512 KB  
Article
The Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events on Price Volatility: The Case of South African Maize
by Anmar Pretorius and Mariette Geyser
Agriculture 2025, 15(22), 2361; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15222361 - 14 Nov 2025
Viewed by 700
Abstract
This study examines how ENSO episodes affect maize price volatility transmission between the United States and South Africa. Using daily price data, from 1997 to 2024, for U.S. corn and South African white and yellow maize futures, the study employs GARCH models augmented [...] Read more.
This study examines how ENSO episodes affect maize price volatility transmission between the United States and South Africa. Using daily price data, from 1997 to 2024, for U.S. corn and South African white and yellow maize futures, the study employs GARCH models augmented with ENSO phase indicators and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to determine volatility spillovers. The results show that South African maize prices respond to lagged US corn prices and exchange rate fluctuations, with price volatility of both white and yellow maize prices being more persistent during El Niño and La Niña events. This study integrates climate variability indicators, specifically different ENSO phases and the SOI, to investigate climate-driven volatility transmission between developed and emerging markets. Significant results were obtained when the Southern Oscillation Index was added in the volatility equations. Not only does the inclusion of ENSO indicators and SOI enhance the explanatory power of GARCH models beyond existing studies, it also provides evidence of climate-driven volatility spillovers between a developed and developing market. These findings highlight the role of climate variability in agricultural market dynamics and stress the need for proactive risk management strategies such as buffer stocks and climate responsive financial instruments to ensure food security and market resilience in Southern Africa. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets)
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22 pages, 1475 KB  
Article
Integrated Local Strategy for Enhancing Olive Oil Prices: The Case of the Estepa Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) Local Agri-Food System (Spain)
by Carlos Bueno-Suarez, Manuel David García-Brenes and Manuel Delgado-Pertíñez
Agriculture 2025, 15(22), 2352; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15222352 - 12 Nov 2025
Viewed by 1260
Abstract
Spain’s olive oil production is world-leading. A significant portion of Spain’s olive oil production is in Andalusia, a southern region. In the Estepa region, a local agri-food system based on olive monoculture is emerging. Furthermore, producers are implementing strategies for differential quality and [...] Read more.
Spain’s olive oil production is world-leading. A significant portion of Spain’s olive oil production is in Andalusia, a southern region. In the Estepa region, a local agri-food system based on olive monoculture is emerging. Furthermore, producers are implementing strategies for differential quality and environmental sustainability to increase the competitiveness of their products. One of the main challenges facing the agricultural sector is generational change. The primary objective of this study is to analyze the results of the actions implemented to enhance the organization, sustainability, quality of production, and prices. The aim is to contrast, through a case study, the qualitative aspects that have enabled them to improve their product price through a competitiveness strategy based on quality improvement, which required synergistic actions in terms of productive structuring and sustainability. To this end, this study conducted structured interviews with key stakeholders in the PDO and consulted the National Reference Price Index at Origin. The results show that the pricing system based on olive oil quality has resulted in producers obtaining a differential income of €200/t in the market. However, it has been unable to halt the structural rural exodus and the progressive abandonment of productive agricultural activities. The study offers recommendations for rural development policymakers. Research into new models of production and organization for rural areas that offer social and environmental sustainability is vital, as these models have great relevance for political decision-making. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets)
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17 pages, 671 KB  
Article
Price Integration of the Ukrainian and EU Corn Markets in the Context of the Russian—Ukrainian War
by Mariusz Hamulczuk and Denys Cherevyk
Agriculture 2025, 15(16), 1777; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15161777 - 19 Aug 2025
Viewed by 2215
Abstract
Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has led to profound disruptions in local and global agri-food markets. Since Ukraine is one of the world’s largest maize exporters, the war also contributed to considerable changes in trade reallocation, as well as an increase in the [...] Read more.
Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has led to profound disruptions in local and global agri-food markets. Since Ukraine is one of the world’s largest maize exporters, the war also contributed to considerable changes in trade reallocation, as well as an increase in the significance of the European Union in Ukrainian exports. This study analyses the effects of the Russian–Ukrainian war on horizontal maize price transmission between Ukraine and the EU countries. The panel autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was applied to investigate the impact of the war on the price pass-through between those countries. The econometric analysis was performed on a weekly feed maize export price series for Ukraine and 14 selected EU countries. The time frame of research, January 2019 to December 2024, was split into pre-war and war periods. The study indicates that with the outbreak of the war, the long-term relationship between Ukraine and the EU’s maize prices has weakened. At the same time, there was an increase in the short-run maize price transmission between Ukraine and the Eastern EU countries. This proves that in the face of the conflict, market participants in these countries are increasingly guided by the market situation in Ukraine when making economic decisions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets)
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