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Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets

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A special issue of Agriculture (ISSN 2077-0472). This special issue belongs to the section "Agricultural Economics, Policies and Rural Management".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (28 February 2026) | Viewed by 18260

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Special Issue Editors

Dr. Mariusz Hamulczuk

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Guest Editor

Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences (SGGW), 02-787 Warsaw, Poland
Interests: agricultural economics; market integration; vertical and horizontal price transmission; agricultural policy; international trade; commodity markets

Prof. Dr. Karolina Pawlak

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Guest Editor

Department of Economics and Economic Policy in Agribusiness, Faculty of Economics, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Wojska Polskiego 28, 60-637 Poznan, Poland
Interests: agricultural economics; international economics; international trade and trade policy; foreign direct investment; international competitiveness; regional integration; agricultural policy; agricultural markets; food industry; food security; general and partial equilibrium modeling
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Dr. Katarzyna Czech

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Department of Econometrics and Statistics, Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, Nowoursynowska 166, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland
Interests: time series analysis; commodity prices; commodity markets financialization; Dutch disease; price volatility and risk management
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Well-functioning, integrated, and competitive agri-food commodity markets are key to promoting the efficient allocation and distribution of resources and goods. The level of prices and trade opportunities conditions the decisions of producers and consumers. High volatility in agricultural trade and prices is observed in the era of globalisation, climate change, and political turmoil, hindering rational decisions. Therefore, the dynamics of these phenomena and the economic effects of ongoing changes require continuous observations and research.

This Special Issue will promote a deeper understanding of price changes, trade dynamics in agri-food products, and their causes and effects. The recent events that we have witnessed require deep analyses from different perspectives. We believe that the research conducted and published here will not only be of great importance from a cognitive point of view but will also help experts to formulate practical recommendations for economic policy.

Original research papers, including theoretical elaborations, methodology studies, and empirical analyses concerning the price and trade dynamics, are welcome. In particular, studies employing various quantitative methods are desired. Literature review papers are also encouraged in these areas. In this Special Issue, original research articles and reviews are welcome. Agricultural commodity markets research areas may include (but are not limited to) the following:

Vertical and horizontal price transmission;
Price volatility and price risk;
Price discovery in futures and spot markets;
The dynamics of international trade;
Drivers of prices and trade over time;
Impact of policies and/or external shocks/events on price and trade fluctuations;
Novel methods for and methodology studies on price and trade dynamics.

Dr. Mariusz Hamulczuk
Prof. Dr. Karolina Pawlak
Dr. Katarzyna Czech
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 250 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for assessment.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Agriculture is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

commodity market
agri-food sector
agri-food prices
price forecasting
price volatility
futures markets
market integration
price transmission
price and trade modelling
impact assessment
international trade
trade policy

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Published Papers (9 papers)

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Research

21 pages, 1972 KB

Open AccessArticle

Effect of Global Energy Price Shocks on Dynamics of World Agricultural and Food Prices

by Szczepan Figiel, Janusz Gajda and Justyna Kufel-Gajda

Agriculture 2026, 16(9), 945; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16090945 - 24 Apr 2026

Viewed by 1331

Abstract

Prices and quantities in agricultural commodity and food product markets are subject to constant changes due to evolving supply and demand conditions. Big and sudden shifts in supply or demand may lead to price movements that bring negative consequences for food producers or consumers. Factors causing such movements can be of different natures, but substantial changes in the world energy price levels are supposed to be one of the most important. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of global energy price shocks on the evolution of food commodities and food consumer prices. Using the World Bank data on the respective price indices, we looked for shocks in these data series by utilizing statistical tools. Having identified three global energy price shocks in the period 2000–2024 induced by the financial crisis of 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the outbreak of war in Ukraine, their influence on the world agricultural commodity prices and food consumer prices was assessed. It was found that the series of energy, food commodity, and food consumer price indices were related in the long term. Also, the occurrence of global energy price shocks to a visible extent translated into global food commodity and food consumer price shocks. Applying various statistical and econometric techniques, including Chow tests and MS-VAR modelling, enables the identification of which breaking points led to regime changes between the analysed variables. The most sensitive to the structural breaking points appeared to be the relation between energy and consumer food prices. This discovery can be considered our major contribution. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets)

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18 pages, 412 KB

Open AccessArticle

Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Analysis of Selected Climatic, Trade and Macroeconomic Determinants of South African White Maize Price Movements

by Phuti Garald Semenya, Chiedza L. Muchopa and Arone Vutomi Baloi

Agriculture 2026, 16(7), 804; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16070804 - 4 Apr 2026

Viewed by 590

Abstract

This study examines selected factors influencing white maize price movements in South Africa over the period 1994–2024. Given the importance of white maize for food security, understanding the drivers of producer price dynamics is essential for effective policy formulation and managing price stability. Annual time-series data are analysed using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling framework, complemented by bounds testing, an error-correction model, Toda–Yamamoto causality and structural break tests. The bounds test confirms the existence of a stable long-run cointegrating relationship between maize prices and the selected explanatory variables. In the short run, imports and fuel prices exert significant upward pressure on maize producer prices, while lagged fuel prices and rainfall reduce prices. In the long run, imports and fuel prices remain statistically significant determinants, whereas maize production, exports, the exchange rate, and rainfall are insignificant. Complemented with the structural break tests that identify regime shifts in the early 2000s, 2012, and 2021, causality results indicate that imports, rainfall and fuel prices lead to Granger causality in maize producer prices. Collectively the findings reinforce the conclusion that white maize prices in South Africa are governed by long-run structural relationships, while short-run price movements reflect temporary adjustments rather than permanent shifts in market fundamentals. An integrated, long-horizon analysis that jointly incorporates climatic, trade, and macroeconomic determinants within an ARDL framework is provided by the study. Therefore, the findings have important implications for climate-risk management, transport cost containment, trade and price-stabilisation policies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets)

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20 pages, 322 KB

Open AccessArticle

Competitive Asymmetries and the Threat to Supply Chain Resilience: A Comparative Analysis of the EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement’s Impact on the European Union’s and Polish Agri-Food Sectors

by Sebastian Jarzebowski, Marcin Adamski, Łukasz Zaremba, Agata Żak, Brigitte Petersen and Alejandro Guzmán Rivera

Agriculture 2026, 16(2), 250; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16020250 - 19 Jan 2026

Viewed by 1292

Abstract

This study analyzes the competitive asymmetries and trade effects of the proposed EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement on the European Union’s (EU) and Polish agri-food sectors. The comparative analysis reveals that Mercosur holds a significant structural advantage driven by substantially lower labor costs, cheaper agricultural land, and a climate permitting multiple harvests. This cost advantage is further compounded by weaker regulatory standards (e.g., on pesticides and antibiotics). This structural edge is most pronounced in high-volume commodities, leading to Mercosur trade surpluses in products such as soybeans, sugar cane, and wheat, which pose the primary competitive threats to the EU market. Conversely, the EU maintains an intensive advantage through superior yields in intensive farming (e.g., maize) and specialization in high-value, processed products. This creates quantifiable export opportunities for EU/Polish producers in sectors where Mercosur is a consistent net importer, notably other frozen vegetables, preserved tomatoes, and apples. The findings confirm an asymmetric effect of liberalization, which necessitates a dual strategy of internal structural reform (e.g., the EU Protein Strategy) and the implementation of external protective mechanisms, including strategic Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) adaptations and safeguard clauses, to maintain the long-term competitiveness and Supply Chain Resilience of European agriculture. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets)

22 pages, 1077 KB

Open AccessArticle

Agricultural Price Fluctuations and Sectoral Performance: A Long-Term Structural Analytical Perspective Across Europe

by Anca Antoaneta Vărzaru

Agriculture 2026, 16(1), 80; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16010080 - 29 Dec 2025

Viewed by 791

Abstract

The European agricultural sector has increasingly faced volatility in input and output prices, raising concerns about income stability and long-term performance. This study examines the relationship between agricultural price dynamics and sectoral performance across European countries from 2006 to 2024, with a particular focus on countries’ capacity to translate price movements into economic outcomes. Using Eurostat data, the analysis combines factor analysis to construct latent price and performance indicators, structural equation modeling to assess the structural association between price dynamics and real factor income and gross value added, and cluster analysis to identify cross-country heterogeneity. The results reveal a positive and statistically significant association between favorable price dynamics and agricultural performance at the aggregate level. Beyond this general relationship, the findings point to pronounced asymmetries across European agricultural systems. While some countries consistently convert favorable price dynamics into higher income and value creation, others remain structurally constrained and benefit less from similar market conditions. These differences give rise to identifiable groups of relative “winners” and “losers” within the EU agricultural market. The results indicate that price dynamics alone are insufficient to explain convergence in agricultural performance and that structural capacity plays a critical role in shaping outcomes. From a policy perspective, the study highlights the need for differentiated agricultural and regional policy approaches to strengthen resilience and reduce persistent structural disparities across European agriculture. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets)

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30 pages, 4667 KB

Open AccessArticle

Cross-Hedging Mexican Lemon Prices with US Agricultural Futures: Evidence from the Surplus Efficient Frontier

by Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres, José Álvarez-García and María de la Cruz del Río-Rama

Agriculture 2025, 15(24), 2601; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15242601 - 16 Dec 2025

Viewed by 1100

Abstract

This paper tested the use of the surplus efficient frontier (a minimum tracking error portfolio selection method) to select the optimal hedging portfolio that replicates the best Mexican #4 lemon price in a t + 1 and t + 4 week hedging scenario. Using data on the nine most traded agricultural futures in the US from January 2000 to February 2025, we tested hedging effectiveness across 502 futures portfolios in a weekly backtest. The results suggest that a corn and wheat portfolio increases the hedging effectiveness of the lemon price by 0.7033 or 70.33%. A result that, including the impact of trading fees and taxes, leads to a reduction in income risk to a lemon seller in a t + 1 week hedging horizon. The results suggest that a public or private financial institution could take a short position in such a portfolio to provide a hedge at a price that finances the spot/future price difference at minimum cost to Mexican taxpayers. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets)

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18 pages, 2548 KB

Open AccessArticle

Economic Determinants of the Honey Market in Poland

by Piotr Semkiw and Dariusz Gerula

Agriculture 2025, 15(23), 2458; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15232458 - 27 Nov 2025

Viewed by 1724

Abstract

The aim of this study was to analyse the economic conditions of the beekeeping sector in Poland between 2019 and 2024, with particular emphasis on production costs, price formation mechanisms, the foreign trade balance, and the structure of honey supply. The analysis was based on data from public institutions, beekeeping organisations, individual beekeepers, and the authors’ own research and analyses. The results indicate a clear increase in domestic honey production, which reached 31 thousand tonnes in 2024, confirming the growing potential of the sector. Poland is among the largest honey producers in the European Union. The market structure is dominated by direct sales; however, as production scale increases, wholesale channels become more important. Apiary size remains a key factor influencing unit costs and profitability—commercial apiaries benefit from economies of scale, while smaller operations have limited investment capacity. During the analysed period, the sector faced significant cost pressures driven by high inflation and rising prices of beekeeping production inputs. The market analysis shows increasing competitive pressure, particularly in the wholesale segment, intensified by low-priced imported honey. The oversupply of popular honey types reduces profitability and weakens beekeepers’ bargaining position. The future development of the sector should focus on increasing the added value of production, diversifying distribution channels, expanding premium segments, and building strong and competitive brands. Ensuring the stability of the sector is crucial not only for the agri-food economy but also for ecosystem balance and food security. In this context, proactive measures and the consideration of appropriate market protection instruments are essential to mitigate the effects of market imbalances and enhance the sector’s resilience to future economic shocks. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets)

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16 pages, 512 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events on Price Volatility: The Case of South African Maize

by Anmar Pretorius and Mariette Geyser

Agriculture 2025, 15(22), 2361; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15222361 - 14 Nov 2025

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 4106

Abstract

This study examines how ENSO episodes affect maize price volatility transmission between the United States and South Africa. Using daily price data, from 1997 to 2024, for U.S. corn and South African white and yellow maize futures, the study employs GARCH models augmented with ENSO phase indicators and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to determine volatility spillovers. The results show that South African maize prices respond to lagged US corn prices and exchange rate fluctuations, with price volatility of both white and yellow maize prices being more persistent during El Niño and La Niña events. This study integrates climate variability indicators, specifically different ENSO phases and the SOI, to investigate climate-driven volatility transmission between developed and emerging markets. Significant results were obtained when the Southern Oscillation Index was added in the volatility equations. Not only does the inclusion of ENSO indicators and SOI enhance the explanatory power of GARCH models beyond existing studies, it also provides evidence of climate-driven volatility spillovers between a developed and developing market. These findings highlight the role of climate variability in agricultural market dynamics and stress the need for proactive risk management strategies such as buffer stocks and climate responsive financial instruments to ensure food security and market resilience in Southern Africa. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets)

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22 pages, 1475 KB

Open AccessArticle

Integrated Local Strategy for Enhancing Olive Oil Prices: The Case of the Estepa Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) Local Agri-Food System (Spain)

by Carlos Bueno-Suarez, Manuel David García-Brenes and Manuel Delgado-Pertíñez

Agriculture 2025, 15(22), 2352; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15222352 - 12 Nov 2025

Viewed by 2292

Abstract

Spain’s olive oil production is world-leading. A significant portion of Spain’s olive oil production is in Andalusia, a southern region. In the Estepa region, a local agri-food system based on olive monoculture is emerging. Furthermore, producers are implementing strategies for differential quality and environmental sustainability to increase the competitiveness of their products. One of the main challenges facing the agricultural sector is generational change. The primary objective of this study is to analyze the results of the actions implemented to enhance the organization, sustainability, quality of production, and prices. The aim is to contrast, through a case study, the qualitative aspects that have enabled them to improve their product price through a competitiveness strategy based on quality improvement, which required synergistic actions in terms of productive structuring and sustainability. To this end, this study conducted structured interviews with key stakeholders in the PDO and consulted the National Reference Price Index at Origin. The results show that the pricing system based on olive oil quality has resulted in producers obtaining a differential income of €200/t in the market. However, it has been unable to halt the structural rural exodus and the progressive abandonment of productive agricultural activities. The study offers recommendations for rural development policymakers. Research into new models of production and organization for rural areas that offer social and environmental sustainability is vital, as these models have great relevance for political decision-making. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets)

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17 pages, 671 KB

Open AccessArticle

Price Integration of the Ukrainian and EU Corn Markets in the Context of the Russian—Ukrainian War

by Mariusz Hamulczuk and Denys Cherevyk

Agriculture 2025, 15(16), 1777; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15161777 - 19 Aug 2025

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3177

Abstract

Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has led to profound disruptions in local and global agri-food markets. Since Ukraine is one of the world’s largest maize exporters, the war also contributed to considerable changes in trade reallocation, as well as an increase in the significance of the European Union in Ukrainian exports. This study analyses the effects of the Russian–Ukrainian war on horizontal maize price transmission between Ukraine and the EU countries. The panel autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was applied to investigate the impact of the war on the price pass-through between those countries. The econometric analysis was performed on a weekly feed maize export price series for Ukraine and 14 selected EU countries. The time frame of research, January 2019 to December 2024, was split into pre-war and war periods. The study indicates that with the outbreak of the war, the long-term relationship between Ukraine and the EU’s maize prices has weakened. At the same time, there was an increase in the short-run maize price transmission between Ukraine and the Eastern EU countries. This proves that in the face of the conflict, market participants in these countries are increasingly guided by the market situation in Ukraine when making economic decisions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Price and Trade Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Markets)

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