Search Results (6)

Background/Objectives: Multiple sclerosis (MS) imposes a substantial clinical, humanistic, and economic burden, and current disease-modifying therapies require lifelong administration without restoring immune tolerance. IMMUTOL, a tolerogenic gene therapy under development within an EU-funded programme, aims to induce durable remission. Methods: This study assessed the early financial feasibility of IMMUTOL using a structured risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) model, incorporating development and operating costs, probabilities of clinical and regulatory success, manufacturing expenditure, market dynamics, and revenue projections. Uncertainty was examined through one-way, probabilistic, and scenario analyses. Results: Under base-case assumptions, IMMUTOL generated a deterministic rNPV of −$223.8 million with an internal rate of return of 3.4%. Probabilistic analysis yielded a mean rNPV of −$99.4 million and a mean internal rate of return of 10.5%, with 70.2% of simulations producing negative values. Only scenarios combining higher treatment prices with lower manufacturing costs produced consistently positive rNPVs; a price of $1.5 million with a $200,000 production cost resulted in an rNPV of $711.2 million and an internal rate of return of 20.7%. Neither increased market size, reduced time to approval, nor modest cost reductions altered the conclusion. Conclusions: These findings emphasise a structural gap between value-based pricing and the pricing required for commercial viability. Without external support or reductions in cost structures, commercial development may be economically unattractive. Full article

Our work develops the financial engineering module of the REGENerative Agriculture (REGENA) Production Function, with Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) as ecosystem service and contract underlying index, contributing to the global literature and business practices. Specifically, we design and engineer a 30-year Net Present Value (NPV) intergenerational ecological bond instrument tailored for carbon farming (CF) as a part of regenerative practices. With SOC constituting a fundamental soil health indicator for the European Union Soil Observatory (EUSO), we model the flow of value from atmospheric CO₂ removal and its metabolism into SOC within a stochastic SOC Value at Risk (VaR) framework. We assess the SOC VaR in five experimental plots in five Mediterranean countries in South Europe and North Africa for three different treatments in each plot. In turn, the SOC VaR is incorporated into an adjusted Shannon entropy index (H(X)_ADJ) to estimate the coefficient of a positive, net-zero, or negative carbon balance and further assess the risk-adjusted discount rate. The monetary value per gram of carbon per kilogram of soil (g C/kg Soil) signifies a clear advantage of combined regenerative treatments. Finally, three selected extensions of our work are discussed, such as the application of the framework to other nutrients, the establishment full cost–benefit accounting methods for monetizing the environmental benefits of CF to upscale investments and the lifecycle accounting of ecosystem services. Full article

This study illustrates the utility of a mixed-methods approach in assessing the value of an example novel technology—biosensor-integrated self-reporting arteriovenous grafts (smart AVGs). Currently in preclinical development, the device will detect arteriovenous graft stenosis (surveillance-only use case) and treat stenosis (interventional use case). The approach to value assessment adopted in this study was multifaceted, with one stage informing the next and comprised a stakeholder engagement with clinical experts to explore the device’s clinical value, a cost–utility analysis (CUA) from a US Medicare perspective to estimate pricing headroom, and an investment model estimating risk-adjusted net present value analysis (rNPVs) to determine commercial viability. The stakeholder engagement suggested that it would currently be difficult to establish the current value of the surveillance-only use case due to the lack of well-established interventions for preclinical stenosis. Based on this, the CUA focused on the interventional use case and estimated economically justifiable prices at assumed effectiveness levels. Using these prices, rNPVs were estimated over a range of scenarios. This value assessment informs early decision-making on health technology R&D by identifying the conditions (including clinical study success, potential market size and penetration, market access strategies, and assumptions associated with CUA) under which investment may be considered attractive. Full article

Economic benefits and risk premiums significantly affect the production system decision making of farmers and government departments. This study evaluated the economic feasibility and estimated the risk premium of 12 rainfed soybean production systems with various planting densities, fertilization rates and planting patterns by considering the impact of soybean price fluctuation. There were two planting densities (D₁: 160,000 plants ha⁻¹ and D₂: 320,000 plants ha⁻¹), two fertilization rates (F₁: 20 kg ha⁻¹ N, 30 kg ha⁻¹ P, 30 kg ha⁻¹ K; F₂: 40 kg ha⁻¹ N, 60 kg ha⁻¹ P, 60 kg ha⁻¹ K) and three planting patterns (F+W₀: flat cultivation with no irrigation; R+W₀: plastic-mulched ridge-furrow cultivation (PMRF) with no irrigation; R+W₁: PMRF with supplemental irrigation of 30 mm at the pod-filling stage). Based on the two-year (2019–2020) field data in a semi-humid drought-prone region of northwest China and soybean price fluctuation from January 2014 to June 2021, the net income (NI) was calculated by considering the impact of soybean price fluctuation and assuming constant soybean production costs. The net present value (NPV) method and the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) method were used to evaluate the profitability of protective alternatives and the risk of these alternatives. The results showed that the 12 proposed soybean production systems were economically feasible. Reducing the fertilization rate reduced the input costs, but it did not necessarily result in a decrease in soybean yield and NI. The payback period of all production systems was within two years for farmers investing through loans. High-fertilizer and high-density production systems made personal investment obtain the highest economic benefit in this study, which was not the best investment strategy from the perspective of production-to-investment ratio and environmental protection departments. The preferences of farmers with various risk aversion and environmental protection departments in terms of risk premium were also proposed. The economic and risk assessment framework of this study can enhance the understanding of the adjustment of production systems from different perspectives, and provide strategies for promoting the protection of economic, environmental and socially sustainable agricultural systems. Full article

The financial valuation of a drug that is still under development is required for various purposes. The risk-adjusted net present value (r-NPV) method, which recently emerged in the biotech industry, uses the development attrition rate as a discount factor to reflect risk during each development phase. The r-NPV method was developed to overcome the disadvantages of the prevailing discounted cash flow and real options methods and considers drug type, as well as the stage of development in its approach. Using this method, the current study examines technology values in the biopharmaceutical industry and matches the clinical development periods and success rates of these new drugs by analyzing datasets from ClinicalTrials.gov and MedTrack DB. It thus provides support for an empirical valuation model for experts in the field. Notably, there is limited research on the attrition rate and development period of new substance drugs and the research results are not consistently presented. In addition to new substance drugs, further research is necessary to deepen understanding of the attrition rate and development period of biologically-based drugs because of their inherent physical and developmental differences. Similarly, research on performance specifics within drug class models would enable refinement of the model. Full article

This research aimed to build a solid basis through analytic hierarchy process (AHP) analysis to develop a reliable and practical valuation model that reflects the characteristics of the biotech industry and propose a reference formula to estimate the license fee by drug class for potential business transactions. In this study, we reviewed 135 related studies and found 167 related determinants. We surveyed 25 or more specialists in the biopharmaceutical industries. The survey group consisted of National Research Institutes (‘Group 1’), Companies (‘Group 2’), and Government Agencies–Universities (‘Group 3’). The average of the total group and Group 3 showed the same tendency at a Level 3 ranking, where the priority in determining the license fee was arranged in the order of ‘the market factor, the technology factor, the financial factor, and the environmental factor’ in light of the factors, and ‘patent characteristics, licensee characteristics, and licensor characteristics’ for the characteristics. We noted that the patent characteristics were primarily significant in technology transactions and their contract fee in the groups (Total, Group 2 and Group 3), followed by licensee characteristics. In terms of the in-depth index, we noted that the development phase and attrition rate, intellectual property tradability, and licensee licensing experience, followed by quality of technology, were the most influential determinants. Full article