Search Results (2,133)

Pairs trading via futures calendar spreads offers a robust market-neutral approach to exploiting transient mispricings, yet real-time implementation is hindered by asynchronous trading. This paper introduces a Cointegrated Ising Spin Model, CISM, for real-time signal generation in high-frequency spread trading. The model links the macro-level equilibrium of cointegration with micro-level agent interactions, representing prices as magnetizations in an agent-based system. A novel $\Delta$-weighted arbitrage force dynamically adjusts agents’ corrective behavior to account for information staleness. Calibrated on tick-by-tick Brent crude oil futures, the model produces a time-varying probability of spread reversion, enabling probabilistic trading decisions. Backtesting demonstrates a 74.65% success rate, confirming the CISM’s ability to generate stable, data-driven arbitrage signals in asynchronous environments. The model bridges macro-level cointegration with micro-level agent interactions, representing prices as magnetizations within an agent-based Ising system. A novel feature is a $\Delta$-weighted arbitrage force, where the corrective pressure applied by agents in response to the standard Error Correction Term is dynamically amplified based on information staleness. The model is calibrated on historical tick data and designed to operate in real time, continuously updating its probability-based trading signals as new quotes arrive. The model is framed within the context of Discrete Choice Theory, treating agent transitions as utility-maximizing decisions within a Vector Logistic Autoregressive (VLAR) framework. Full article

Polyethylene is the most used plastic in the world, and over 90% of this plastic is ultimately disposed of in landfills or released into the environment, leading to severe ecological implications. In this research, the technoeconomic feasibility of upcycling low-density polyethylene (LDPE) to produce ethylene is studied. The catalytic conversion of LDPE to ethylene is considered in microwave heating mode and Joule heating mode. Experimental data is obtained under conditions where most of the upcycled products are in the gas phase. A flowsheet is developed that produces industrial quantities of ethylene for both heating modes. A technoeconomic analysis and a life cycle analysis are conducted and compared with the traditional ethane cracking process for producing ethylene. Simulation results indicate that the upcycling system exhibits a lower capital expenditure and a comparable operating expenditure relative to conventional ethane steam cracking while generating additional valuable co-products, such as propylene and aromatic hydrocarbons, leading to a higher net present value potential. Sensitivity analyses reveal that the electricity price has the most significant impact on both the net present value and levelized cost of production, followed by the low-density polyethylene feedstock cost. Life-cycle assessment reveals a substantial reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions in the upcycled process compared to the fossil-based ethane steam-cracking route, primarily due to the use of renewable electricity, the lower reaction temperature that reduces utility demand, and the use of plastic waste as the feedstock. Overall, the proposed process demonstrates strong potential for the sustainable production of ethylene from waste LDPE. Full article

This paper presents a nine-switch inverter for brushless operation of wound-field synchronous machines with excellent rotor flux regulation freedom. The manufacturing cost of permanent magnet machines is high due to the instability of rare-earth magnet prices in the global market. Moreover, conventional wound-field synchronous machines (WFSMs) have problems with their rotor brushes and slip-ring assembly, wherein the assembly starts to malfunction in the long run. Furthermore, recently, some brushless WFSM topologies have been investigated to eliminate the problems associated with rotor brushes and slip rings, but they have either a high cost due to a double-inverter, or low flux regulation freedom due to a single inverter (−i_d). The proposed nine-switch topology achieves a low cost by using a single inverter with nine switches and excellent flux control through three variables (−i_d, i_q, and i_f), making it highly suitable for wide-speed applications. In the proposed topology, the machine’s armature winding is divided into two sets of coils: ABC and XYZ. A 12-slot and 8-pole machine stator is wound with armature winding coils ABC and XYZ, creating six terminals for injecting currents and two neutrals from each ABC and XYZ coil set. The current to the ABC and XYZ coils is supplied by a nine-switch inverter. The inverter is specially designed to supply rated currents to the ABC winding coils and half of the rated current to the XYZ winding coils. The number of turns of the ABC and XYZ winding coils are kept the same so they produce the same winding function. However, the current in the XYZ winding coils is half compared to that of the ABC winding coils, which creates an asymmetrical airgap magnetomotive force (MMF). The asymmetrical airgap MMF contains two working harmonics, i.e., fundamental MMF for torque production and an additional sub-harmonic MMF component for rotor field brushless excitation. The rotor field is controlled by the difference in current of the two armature winding coils: ABC and XYZ. The proposed topology is validated through theoretical analysis and finite element simulations of electromagnetic and flux regulation. A 2D finite-element analysis is performed to verify the idea. The proposed topology is capable of establishing a 9.15 A dc current in the rotor field winding coil, which consequently generates a torque of 7.8 N·m with a 20.30% torque ripple. Rotor field flux regulation was analyzed from the stator ABC and XYZ coils current ratio ζ. The ratio ζ is analyzed as 2 to 1.3; subsequently, the inducted field currents were 9.15 A dc to 4.8 A dc, respectively. Full article

This study aimed to develop a credit risk index to classify coffee producers according to socioeconomic, agronomic, and financial performance variables, with the purpose of strengthening financial inclusion. We combined qualitative and quantitative methods to understand credit risk factors among smallholder coffee producers. The study followed a descriptive-analytical approach structured in consecutive methodological phases. The systematic review, conducted following the Kitchenham protocol, identified theoretical factors associated with credit risk, while fieldwork with 300 producers provided the socioeconomic and productive contexts of coffee-growing households. Producer income, cost of living, and farm management expenses were modeled using regression, statistical, and machine learning methods. Subsequently, these variables were integrated to construct a financial risk index, which was normalized using expert scoring. The index was validated using data from 100 additional producers, for whom annual repayment capacity and maximum loan amounts were estimated according to their risk level. The results indicated that incorporating municipal-level economic variables, such as estimated average prices, income, and expenses, enhanced predictive accuracy and improved the rational allocation of loan amounts. The study concludes that credit risk analysis based on variables related to human, productive, and economic capital constitutes an effective strategy for improving access to finance in rural areas. Full article

Pan-Homophonic events denote fluctuations in stock prices that are triggered by phonetic similarities between event keywords and stock tickers. As a relatively novel and under-researched phenomenon, they mirror a subtle yet influential behavioral deviation within financial markets. Centering on the case of Chuandazhisheng, this study delves into how such events produce dynamic and time-varying impacts on stock prices. A linguistic amplitude segmentation method is devised to discriminate between high- and low-intensity events based on information entropy. To separate pan-homophonic-driven price movements from broader market trends, the Relational Stock Ranking (RSR) model is integrated with a Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) framework to establish an adjusted price benchmark. The empirical analysis reveals a sequential price response: initial moderate fluctuations in the low-amplitude phase often yield to more prominent volatility in the high-amplitude phase. While price surges typically occur within one or two days of the event, they generally revert within approximately three weeks. Moreover, repeated exposures to homo- phonic stimuli seem to attenuate the response, indicating a decaying spillover pattern. These findings contribute to a more profound understanding of the intersection between linguistic cues and market behavior and provide practical insights for investor education, information filtering, and regulatory supervision. Full article

Compared to the façades of student multi-story dormitories, flat horizontal roofs offer greater freedom in shaping the layout, orientation, horizontal inclination, and geometry of photovoltaic installations (PVI). The large number of parameters defining the geometric and physical characteristics of PVI necessitates the development of a method to support the optimization of energy renovation processes. To facilitate this innovative method, several automation and optimization procedures were implemented into a specialized computer application developed within the Rhino/Grasshopper graphical programming environment. The method’s algorithm allows for the definition of an initial parametric qualitative model of each rooftop installation. This model is configured through multiple iterative computer simulations aimed at identifying various discrete optimal qualitative models. The implemented optimizing condition concerns the amount of energy produced and relates to the variability of energy prices as well as the costs of purchasing and mounting the PVI. The optimizing procedure involves replacing a specific portion of grid energy with electricity produced by the PVI. The parameters describing variability include the geometric and physical properties, as well as the orientation of the PVI. In the second step, the algorithm optimizes the desired payback period and investment costs. The obtained results fill a gap in the field of multi-parameter optimizing methods for the energy renovation of student dormitories. Full article

Shiitake mushrooms (Lentinula edodes) are widely consumed as a key health food in the Republic of Korea. However, they face declining production value and consumption, necessitating a shift from production-focused research to an understanding of consumer demand. The aim of this study was to quantify Korean consumers’ trade-offs among key shiitake attributes and to derive actionable marketing strategies to expand domestic consumption. We conducted an online survey (n = 500) to quantify consumer utility for four key attributes: cap size (two levels), cap color (two levels), origin (two levels: domestic (Korean) and imported (Chinese)), and price (four levels per 500 g). The results identified price as the most important attribute (relative importance = 46.41%), followed by origin (19.85%), cap color (17.10%), and cap size (16.64%). Utility analysis (part-worths) revealed a distinct dual preference: consumers value both low-priced shiitake (KRW 4000 (USD 2.9)/500 g) for personal consumption and high-priced options (KRW 13,000 (USD 9.5)/500 g) for gifting. Consumers showed a clear preference for dark-colored caps, while the aggregate-level utility difference between origin levels was small. A Logit model simulation indicated the highest predicted shares for profiles priced at KRW 13,000 (15.9%) and KRW 4000 (15.7%), consistent with a polarized value–premium structure. These findings indicate that Korean producers should adopt a dual strategy: developing low-cost products to stimulate general consumption while simultaneously marketing high-quality, dark-colored, domestically produced shiitake as premium gift items, thereby establishing effective food choice strategies in a competitive market. Although the empirical setting is the Republic of Korea (with ‘Chinese’ included only as an imported-origin level representing the main foreign competitor), the findings speak to broader specialty-food contexts where import competition and dual-purpose purchasing (everyday use vs. gifting) shape attribute trade-offs. Full article

Internal accounting control personnel constitute the operational foundation through which firms ensure the accuracy and reliability of financial reporting, yet their relevance to capital market outcomes remains insufficiently documented. This study evaluates whether investment in internal accounting control personnel is incorporated into corporate bond pricing by considering both the quantitative dimension of staffing levels and the qualitative dimension of personnel expertise. Corporate bond issuance data are merged with mandatory disclosures on internal accounting control personnel for manufacturing firms listed on the Korea Exchange between 2011 and 2021. The analysis shows a significantly negative association between internal accounting control personnel and corporate bond yield spreads, with personnel expertise further reinforcing this relationship. These patterns are consistent with the view that enhanced monitoring capacity and stronger reporting credibility reduce information asymmetry and perceived default risk among bond investors. The evidence positions internal accounting control personnel as an operational and signaling indicator of internal control effectiveness reflected in debt market pricing and suggests that investment in internal control staff extends beyond compliance to produce measurable financial benefits through lower borrowing costs. Full article

Biomass gasification, as a thermochemical process, has attracted growing interest due to the increasing popularity of biofuel production based on syngas or pure hydrogen. Moreover, when integrated with CO₂ capture, this method of producing gaseous fuels can achieve negative CO₂ emissions, making it competitive with other production systems based on either fossil or renewable sources. This paper presents the results of a process and economic analysis of synthetic natural gas (SNG) production systems integrated with a commercial fluidized-bed gasification reactor based on Synthesis Energy Systems (SES) technology. The study examines the potential integration of the system with a water electrolyzer at two levels of coupling: one providing oxygen for the gasification process, and the other eliminating the need for CO₂ separation before the SNG synthesis stage. Using a single gasification unit with a raw biomass feed rate of 60 t/h, the system produces 188 t/d of SNG. Integration with a water electrolyzer increases SNG production to 259 and 621 t/d. For cases without electrolyzer integration and under the assumption of zero emissions from biomass processing, the application of CO₂ separation enables the achievement of negative CO₂ emissions. This creates an opportunity for additional revenue from the sale of CO₂ emission allowances, which can significantly reduce SNG production costs. In this analysis, the break-even CO₂ price, above which the SNG production cost becomes negative, is USD 251/t CO₂. In systems integrated with water electrolysis, the cost and carbon footprint of the electricity consumed in the electrochemical water-splitting process have a decisive impact on both the overall SNG production cost and its carbon intensity. Full article

Geopolitical risks, particularly in energy-producing regions, significantly impact national economic development. This study uses the Generalized Variance Decomposition Spectrum Representation method to analyze the relationship between international energy prices (coal, oil, and natural gas) and geopolitical risks. The findings show that geopolitical risk serves as a net transmitter of risk, with a short-term effect on energy prices that diminishes over time. Oil prices are most sensitive to geopolitical risks, while coal prices are least affected. The study also identifies distinct spillover effects between geopolitical behavioral risks and threat risks, with the former contributing more to price fluctuations. The results highlight the complex interplay between energy prices and geopolitical risks, with implications for global economic stability. Full article

This paper examines the forecasting and modelling of consumer demand for organic agricultural products in the context of sustainable development and digital marketing. The study is based on an online survey of 423 consumers in Ukraine and Slovakia and applies factor analysis, regression modelling, and scenario forecasting. The results indicate that demand formation is driven by a combination of economic, social, and behavioural factors, with income level, price sensitivity, trust in certification, and awareness of organic benefits playing a central role. The findings further confirm that digital marketing tools significantly influence purchasing decisions by enhancing information transparency and strengthening consumer trust. From a theoretical perspective, the study contributes to the literature by integrating economic determinants of demand with digital marketing and sustainability-related factors within a unified analytical framework. From a managerial perspective, the results provide practical guidance for organic producers and marketers regarding the communication of environmental value and the effective use of digital channels to stimulate demand and build long-term consumer loyalty. The novelty of the study lies in the combined application of demand modelling and digital marketing analysis within a comparative cross-country context, offering an integrated approach to forecasting organic product demand and supporting the development of sustainable marketing strategies. Full article

This study explores the gap between producer price (PP) and consumer price (CP) in Cyprus’s fresh fruit and vegetable supply chain (2020–2022). Results show persistent disparities, with PP consistently below half of CP. Marketing margins in Cyprus exceed those in other EU countries, suggesting systemic inefficiencies such as weak producer organizations, intermediaries’ concentration, high logistics costs, and limited market transparency. Addressing these issues requires strengthening producer groups, enhancing transparency, promoting short supply chains, and reducing market concentration to ensure fairer supply chains. Full article

Farmers face financial challenges due to changing input costs and market prices, making risk assessment an important tool for decision-making. This study uses scenario analysis to examine how different economic conditions affect farm profitability. Economic data were collected from producers in Agia Paraskevi, Kozani and three scenarios were created to show how changes in costs and revenue impact profits. The results show that farm profits change significantly depending on market conditions. In the pessimistic scenario, net profit dropped by 35.36%, while in the optimistic scenario, it increased by 32.64%. These findings highlight the need for careful cost management, financial planning, and flexible decision-making to keep farms profitable. Although farms remained profitable in all cases, unexpected price changes and higher costs create challenges. This study shows that scenario analysis can help both farmers and policymakers make better decisions and manage financial risks in agriculture. Full article

Post-industrial waterfronts have become key arenas of urban transformation, where heritage, public space and social equity intersect. This study examined the Xuhui Waterfront in Shanghai under the ‘One River, One Creek’ initiative, which converted former industrial land into a continuous riverfront corridor of parks and cultural venues. The research aimed to evaluate whether this large-scale renewal enhanced social equity or produced new forms of exclusion. A tripartite analytical framework of distributive, procedural and recognitional justice was applied, combining spatial mapping, remote-sensing analysis of vegetation and heat exposure, housing price-to-income ratio assessment, and policy review from 2015 to 2024. The results showed that the continuity of the riverfront, increased greenery and adaptive reuse of industrial structures improved accessibility, environmental quality and cultural enjoyment. However, housing affordability became increasingly polarised, indicating emerging gentrification and generational inequality. This study concluded that this dual outcome reflected the fiscal dependency of state-led renewal on land-lease revenues and high-end development. It suggested that future waterfront projects could adopt financially sustainable yet inclusive models, such as incremental phasing, public–private partnerships and guided self-renewal, to better reconcile heritage conservation, public-space creation and social fairness. Full article

In this work, a high-order meshless framework is developed for the numerical resolution of the temporal–fractional Black–Scholes equation arising in option pricing with long-memory effects. The spatial discretization is carried out with a local radial basis function produced finite difference (RBF–FD) method on seven-node stencils. Analytical differentiation weights are constructed by employing closed-form second integrations of a variant of the inverse multiquadric kernel, which yields sparse differentiation matrices. Explicit formulas are derived for both first- and second-order operators, and a detailed truncation error analysis confirms sixth-order convergence in space. Numerical experiments for European options discuss better accuracy per spatial node than standard finite difference schemes. Full article