Search Results (20)

Blasting-induced seismic waves are typically nonlinear and non-stationary signals. The EMD-Hilbert transform is commonly used for time–frequency analysis of such signals. However, during the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) processing of blasting-induced seismic waves, endpoint effects occur, resulting in varying degrees of divergence in the obtained intrinsic mode function (IMF) components at both ends. The further application of the Hilbert transform to these endpoint-divergent IMFs yield artificial time–frequency analysis results, adversely impacting the assessment of blasting-induced seismic wave hazards. This paper proposes an improved EMD endpoint effect suppression algorithm that considers local endpoint development trends, global time distribution, energy matching, and waveform matching. The method first analyzes global temporal characteristics and endpoint amplitude variations to obtain left and right endpoint extension signal fragment S(t)_L and S(t)_R. Using these as references, the original signal is divided into “b” equal segments S(t)₁, S(t)₂ … S(t)_b. Energy matching and waveform matching functions are then established to identify signal fragments S(t)_i and S(t)_j that match both the energy and waveform characteristics of S(t)_L and S(t)_R. Replacing S(t)_L and S(t)_R with S(t)_i and S(t)_j effectively suppresses the EMD endpoint effects. To verify the algorithm’s effectiveness in suppressing EMD endpoint effects, comparative studies were conducted using simulated signals to compare the proposed method with mirror extension, polynomial fitting, and extreme value extension methods. Three evaluation metrics were utilized: error standard deviation, correlation coefficient, and computation time. The results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm effectively reduces the divergence at the endpoints of the IMFs and yields physically meaningful IMF components. Finally, the method was applied to the analysis of actual blasting seismic signals. It successfully suppressed the endpoint effects of EMD and improved the extraction of time–frequency characteristics from blasting-induced seismic waves. This has significant practical implications for safety assessments of existing structures in areas affected by blasting. Full article

Ground-based synthetic aperture radar (GBSAR) has been widely used in the fields of early warning of geologic hazards and deformation monitoring of engineering structures due to its characteristics of high spatial resolution, zero spatial baseline, and short revisit period. However, in the continuous monitoring process of GBSAR, due to the sudden failure of radar equipment, such as power failure, or the influence of alternating work between multiple regions, it often leads to discontinuous data collection, and this problem caused by missing data is collectively called “inspection mode”. The problem of missing data in the inspection mode not only destroys the spatial and temporal continuity of the data but also affects the accuracy of the subsequent deformation analysis. In order to solve this problem, in this paper, we propose a data reconstruction method that combines Sage–Husa Kalman adaptive filtering and the Rauch–Tung–Striebel (RTS) smoothing algorithm. The method is based on the principle of Kalman filtering and solves the problem of “model mismatch” caused by the fixed noise statistics of traditional Kalman filtering by dynamically adjusting the noise covariance to adapt to the non-stationary characteristics of the observed data. Subsequently, the Rauch–Tung–Striebel (RTS) smoothing algorithm is used to process the preliminary filtering results to eliminate the cumulative error during the period of missing data and recover the complete and smooth deformation time series. The experimental and simulation results show that this method successfully restores the spatial and temporal continuity of the inspection data, thus improving the overall accuracy and stability of deformation monitoring. Full article

Geological hazards in densely vegetated mountainous regions are challenging to detect due to terrain concealment and the limitations of traditional visualization methods. This study introduces the LiDAR image highlighting algorithm (LIHA), a novel approach for enhancing micro-topographical features in digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from airborne LiDAR data. By analogizing terrain profiles to non-stationary spectral signals, LIHA applies locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (Loess smoothing), wavelet decomposition, and high-frequency component amplification to emphasize subtle features such as landslide boundaries, cracks, and gullies. The algorithm was validated using the Mengu landslide case study, where edge detection analysis revealed a 20-fold increase in identified micro-topographical features (from 1907 to 37,452) after enhancement. Quantitative evaluation demonstrated LIHA’s effectiveness in improving both human interpretation and automated detection accuracy. The results highlight LIHA’s potential to advance early geological hazard identification and mitigation, particularly when integrated with machine learning for future applications. This work bridges signal processing and geospatial analysis, offering a reproducible framework for high-precision terrain feature extraction in complex environments. Full article

Extreme value analysis (EVA) is well-established to derive hydrometeorological design values for infrastructures that have to withstand extreme events. Since there is concern about increased extremes with higher hazard potential under climate change, alterations of EVA are introduced for which statistical properties are no longer assumed to be constant but vary over time. In this study, both stationary and non-stationary EVA models are used to derive design life levels (DLLs) of daily precipitation in the pre-alpine Oberland region of Southern Germany, an orographically complex region characterized by heavy precipitation events and climate change. As EVA is fraught with uncertainties, it is crucial to quantify its methodological impacts: two theoretical distributions (i.e., Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution), four different parameter estimation techniques (i.e., Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), L-moments, Generalized Maximum Likelihood Estimation (GMLE), and Bayesian estimation method) are evaluated and compared. The study reveals large methodological uncertainties. Discrepancies due to the parameter estimation methods may reach up to 45% of the mean absolute value, while differences between stationary and non-stationary models are of the same magnitude (differences in DLLs up to 40%). For the end of this century in the Oberland region, there is no robust tendency towards increased extremes found. Full article

This study aims to reconstruct hazardous zones after the hydrogen explosion at a fueling station and to assess an influence of terrain landscape on harmful consequences for personnel with the use of numerical methods. These consequences are measured by fields of conditional probability of lethal and ear-drum injuries for people exposed to explosion waves. An “Explosion Safety^®” numerical tool is applied for non-stationary and three-dimensional reconstructions of the hazardous zone around the epicenter of the explosion of a premixed stoichiometric hemispheric hydrogen cloud. In order to define values of the explosion wave’s damaging factors (maximum overpressure and impulse of pressure phase), a three-dimensional mathematical model of chemically active gas mixture dynamics is used. This allows for controlling the current pressure in every local point of actual space, taking into account the complex terrain. This information is used locally in every computational cell to evaluate the conditional probability of such consequences for human beings, such as ear-drum rupture and lethal outcome, on the basis of probit analysis. To evaluate the influence of the landscape profile on the non-stationary three-dimensional overpressure distribution above the Earth’s surface near the epicenter of an accidental hydrogen explosion, a series of computational experiments with different variants of the terrain is carried out. Each variant differs in the level of mutual arrangement of the explosion epicenter and the places of possible location of personnel. The obtained results indicate that any change in working-place level of terrain related to the explosion’s epicenter can better protect personnel from the explosion wave than evenly leveled terrain, and deepening of the explosion epicenter level related to working place level leads to better personnel protection than vice versa. Moreover, the presented coupled computational fluid dynamics and probit analysis model can be recommended to risk-managing experts as a cost-effective and time-saving instrument to assess the efficiency of protection structures during safety procedures. Full article

Nitrogen oxides (NO_x) gases, such as nitrous oxide (N₂O), nitrogen oxide (NO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), are considered the most hazardous exhausts exhaled by industries and stationary and non-stationary application engines. Investigation of catalytic decomposition of NO has been carried out on copper ion exchanged with different bases, such as COK12, Nb₂O₅, Y-zeolite, and ZSM5. The catalytic decomposition of NO is widely accepted as an excellent method for the abatement of NO. However, the catalyst that achieves the highest reactivity in terms of NO decomposition is still a matter of research. The present paper aims to extend the research on the reactivity of non-noble metal-based catalysts using the direct decomposition method to remove NO from diesel engine exhaust. The reactivity of catalysts was observed in a quartz fixed bed reactor of 10 mm diameter placed in a furnace maintained at a temperature of 200 °C to 600 °C. The flow of NO was controlled by a mass flow controller, and the gas chromatography technique was used to observe the reactivity of the catalysts. Analysis showed that adding Cu to COK12, Nb₂O₅, Y-zeolite, and ZSM5 supports resulted in a rise in NO decomposition compared to stand-alone supports. Further experimental trials on the performance of Cu-ZSM5 at varying flow rates of NO showed that the NO decomposition activity of the catalyst was higher at lower flow rates of NO. Full article

Extreme precipitation events can lead to disastrous floods, which are the most significant natural hazards in the Mediterranean regions. Therefore, a proper characterization of these events is crucial. Extreme events defined as annual maxima can be modeled with the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Owing to spatial heterogeneity, the distribution of extremes is non-stationary in space. To take non-stationarity into account, the parameters of the GEV distribution can be viewed as functions of covariates that convey spatial information. Such functions may be implemented as a generalized linear model (GLM) or with a more flexible non-parametric non-linear model such as an artificial neural network (ANN). In this work, we evaluate several statistical models that combine the GEV distribution with a GLM or with an ANN for a spatial interpolation of the GEV parameters. Key issues are the proper selection of the complexity level of the ANN (i.e., the number of hidden units) and the proper selection of spatial covariates. Three sites are included in our study: a region in the French Mediterranean, the Cap Bon area in northeast Tunisia, and the Merguellil catchment in central Tunisia. The comparative analysis aim at assessing the genericity of state-of-the-art approaches to interpolate the distribution of extreme precipitation events. Full article

The increase in the frequency and intensity of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena is one of the most dangerous consequences of climate instability. In this study, we summarize the data on severe weather phenomena using the data from 23 meteorological stations in Crimea from 1976 to 2020. Particular attention was paid to the precipitation phenomena descriptions. For the last 45 years, a significant positive trend of interannual variability of the annual occurrence of severe weather phenomena was estimated to be +2.7 cases per decade. The trend for severe precipitation phenomena was estimated to be +1.3 cases per decade. The probable maximum annual daily precipitation as a quantitative indicator of hazardous events was estimated for each station by using both the stationary and the non-stationary GEV models. For at least half of the meteorological stations, a non-stationary GEV model was more appropriate for the estimation of the precipitation extremes. An analysis of the main synoptic processes that drive severe weather phenomena of precipitation was carried out. The greatest contribution to the formation of severe precipitation was made by Mediterranean–Black Sea cyclones. At the same time, half of all of the cases of extreme precipitation were caused by cyclones generated over the Black Sea only, in all seasons apart from winter. In the mid-troposphere, four types of meridional circulation were identified depending on the location of troughs and ridges, with respect to the Black Sea region. More than 42% of severe precipitation phenomena were accompanied by an isolated high-altitude cyclone in the mid-troposphere over the Black Sea region. The main recommendation that can be drawn from this study is that long-term climatic non-stationarity should be taken into account whenever the risk assessment or hazard analysis is to be carried out. The results can also favor the designing of drainage and sewerage systems in urban areas. The findings of atmospheric patterns can be used for the improvement of extreme precipitation forecasts. Full article

Continuous air pollution (CAP) incidents last even longer and generate greater health hazards relative to conventional air pollution episodes. However, few studies have focused on the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and driving factors of CAP in China. Drawing on the daily reported ground monitoring data on the ambient air quality in 2019 in China, this paper identifies the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of CAP across 337 Chinese cities above the prefecture level using descriptive statistics and spatial statistical analysis methods, and further examines the spatial heterogeneity effects of both socioeconomic factors and natural factors on CAP with a Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model. The results show that the average proportion of CAP days in 2019 reached 11.50% of the whole year across Chinese cities, a figure equaling to about 65 days, while the average frequency, the maximum amount of days and the average amount of days of CAP were 8.02 times, 7.85 days and 4.20 days, respectively. Furthermore, there was a distinct spatiotemporal distribution disparity in CAP in China. Spatially, the areas with high proportions of CAP days were concentrated in the North China Plain and the Southwestern Xinjiang Autonomous Region in terms of the spatial pattern, while the proportion of CAP days showed a monthly W-shaped change in terms of the temporal pattern. In addition, the types of regions containing major pollutants during the CAP period could be divided into four types, including “Composite pollution”, “O₃ + NO₂ pollution”, “PM₁₀ + PM_2.5 pollution” and “O₃ + PM_2.5 pollution”, while the region type “PM₁₀ + PM_2.5 pollution” covered the highest number of cities. The MGWR model, characterized by multiple spatial scale impacts among the driving factors, outperformed the traditional OLS and GWR model, and both socioeconomic factors and natural factors were found to have a spatial non-stationary relationship with CAP in China. Our findings provide new policy insights for understanding the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of CAP in urban China and can help the Chinese government make prevention and control measures of CAP incidents. Full article

The accurate assessment of landslide hazards is important in order to reduce the casualties and damage caused by landslides. Landslide hazard assessment combines the evaluation of spatial and temporal probabilities. Although various statistical approaches have been used to estimate spatial probability, these methods only evaluate the statistical relationships between factors that have triggered landslides in the past rather than the slope failure process. Therefore, a physically based approach with probabilistic analysis was adopted here to estimate the spatial distribution of landslide probability. Meanwhile, few studies have addressed temporal probability because historical records of landslides are not available for most areas of the world. Therefore, an indirect approach based on rainfall frequency and using extreme value analysis and the Gumbel distribution is proposed and used in this study. In addition, to incorporate the nonstationary characteristics of rainfall data, an expanding window approach was used to evaluate changes in the mean annual maximum rainfall and the location and scale parameters of the Gumbel distribution. Using this approach, the temporal probabilities of future landslides were estimated and integrated with spatial probabilities to assess and map landslide hazards. Full article

The warming observed over the past summers since 2000 is unprecedented in climate records in Europe and especially in France. Extreme temperatures and heat spells were often analyzed in the literature by applying extreme value theory but rarely in a non-stationary (NS) framework and duration modeling is often excluded. For a modern risk-based approach, it is important to have knowledge of the duration, magnitude, and frequency of occurrence of heat spells in a climate variability and change context. Yet, despite their obvious importance, teleconnections and associated climate indices (CIs) have often been excluded from heat spell modelling. The notion of duration is also not easily interpretable in a frequency analysis and can even be subtle, especially in a NS context. In this study, we used time-varying statistical distributions with parameters conditional on covariates representing the time and CIs. The daily maximum temperatures (DMTs) observed at the Orange and Dijon stations in France were used as a case study. This paper highlights a possible relationship between some large-scale climate patterns and the heat spells in France. Overall, the results suggest that considering the combined effect of global warming and these patterns in NS models is useful for a more appropriate characterization of the hazard heat spells in France. Full article

In the present work, a methodological framework, based on nonstationary extreme value analysis of nearshore sea-state parameters, is proposed for the identification of climate change impacts on coastal zone and port defense structures. The applications refer to the estimation of coastal hazards on characteristic Mediterranean microtidal littoral zones and the calculation of failure probabilities of typical rubble mound breakwaters in Greek ports. The proposed methodology hinges on the extraction of extreme wave characteristics and sea levels due to storm events affecting the coast, a nonstationary extreme value analysis of sea-state parameters and coastal responses using moving time windows, a fitting of parametric trends to nonstationary parameter estimates of the extreme value models, and an assessment of nonstationary failure probabilities on engineered port protection. The analysis includes estimation of extreme total water level (TWL) on several Greek coasts to approximate the projected coastal flooding hazard under climate change conditions in the 21st century. The TWL calculation considers the wave characteristics, sea level height due to storm surges, mean sea level (MSL) rise, and astronomical tidal ranges of the study areas. Moreover, the failure probabilities of a typical coastal defense structure are assessed for several failure mechanisms, considering variations in MSL, extreme wave climates, and storm surges in the vicinity of ports, within the framework of reliability analysis based on the nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The methodology supports the investigation of future safety levels and possible periods of increased vulnerability of the studied structure to different ultimate limit states under extreme marine weather conditions associated with climate change, aiming at the development of appropriate upgrading solutions. The analysis suggests that the assumption of stationarity might underestimate the total failure probability of coastal structures under future extreme marine conditions. Full article

The presence of the nonstationarity in flow datasets has challenged the flood hazard assessment. Nonstationary tools and evaluation metrics have been proposed to deal with the nonstationarity and guide the infrastructure design and mitigation measures. To date, the examination of how the flood hazards are affected by the nonstationarity is still very limited. This paper thus examined the association between the flood hazards and the nonstationary patterns and degrees of the underlying datasets. The Particle Filter, which allows for assessing the uncertainty of the point estimates, was adopted to conduct the nonstationary flood frequency analysis (NS-FFA) for subsequently estimating the flood hazards in three real study cases. The results suggested that the optimal and top NS-FFA models selected according to the fitting efficiency in general align with the pattern of nonstationarity, although they might not always be superior in terms of uncertainty. Moreover, the results demonstrated the association and the sensitivity of the flood hazards to the perceived patterns and degrees of nonstationarity. In particular, the variations of the flood hazards intensified with the increase in the degree of nonstationarity, which should be assessed in a more elaborate manner, i.e., considering multiple statistical moments. These advocate the potential of using the nonstationarity characteristics as a proxy for evaluating the evolutions of the flood hazards. Full article

The change of the Earth’s climate and the increasing human action (e.g., increasing impervious areas) are influencing the recurrence and magnitude of flooding events and consequently the exposure of urban and rural communities. Under these conditions, flood hazard analysis needs to account for this change through the adoption of nonstationary approaches. Such methods, showing how flood hazard evolves over time, are able to support a long-term plan of adaptation in hazard changing perspective, reducing expected annual damage in flood prone areas. On this basis, in this paper a reevaluation of flood hazard in the Benevento province of southern Italy, is presented, providing a reduced complexity methodological framework for near future flood hazard prediction under nonstationary conditions. The proposed procedure uses multiple nonstationary probability models and a LiDAR-derived high-resolution inundation model to provide present and future flood scenarios in the form of hazard maps. Such maps are derived using a spatialization routine of stage probability across the inundation model that is able to work at different scales. The analysis indicates that, overall, (i) flood hazard is going to decrease in the next 30 years over the Benevento province and (ii) many areas of the Calore river floodplain are going to be subject to higher return level events. Consequently, many areas would require new guidelines of use as the hazard level decreases. Limitations of the analysis are related to the choice of the probability model and the parameter estimation approach. A further limit is that, currently, this method is not able to account for the presence of mitigation measurements. However, result validation indicates a very high accuracy of the proposed procedure with a matching degree, with a recently observed 225-years flood, estimated in 98%. On this basis, the proposed framework can be considered a very important approach in flood hazard estimation able to predict near future evolution of flood hazard as modulated by the ongoing climate change. Full article

On 3 July 2019, Stromboli volcanic island experienced a paroxysmal explosion that triggered wildfires on vegetated areas in the south, southwestern, and eastern part of the island. This study analyzes the runoff and the transport of sediment originating from rainfall, to verify whether the vegetation loss due to wildfire changed the hydrogeological structure of the affected area and the flooding hazard. A preliminary hydrological study was conducted to analyze the superficial runoff due to rainfall. According to local planning, the hydrogeological study and flood risk assessment were carried out for the return periods corresponding to 50, 100, and 300 years. The flooding levels were calculated using the hydrodynamic module of the IBER software. The IBER sediment transport module was applied in a non-stationary regime for erosion and sedimentation analysis. The results showed that the fire caused an increase of the water discharge rates between 0.06 and 0.16 m²/s, for the 50 year return period, in the Ginostra inhabited area. The great differences of the flood levels between pre- and post-eruptive scenarios, for the highest return periods, were recognized. The analysis of sediment transport showed that rains could exert an erosion and re-sedimentation effect that would transport from 0.1 m to more than 1 m of re-mobilized material in the Ginostra area, which could cause inconvenience in the inhabited area of the island. Full article