Special Issue "Extreme Climate Events in France"

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (10 October 2021) | Viewed by 4464

Special Issue Editor

Prof. Emmanuel Garnier
E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
UMR CNRS Chrono-Environnement – University of Franche-Comté, 25000 Besançon, France
Interests: climate; disasters; history; vulnerability; resilience

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Extreme climate events in France, as in the rest of the world, are, by definition, unusual phenomena and, consequently, are very difficult to take into account in climate models and in the risk reduction policies of states. Since the early 2000s, France has experienced a number of extreme climate events whose socio-economic impact has caused major national disasters, such as hurricanes Lothar and Martin in 1999, storm Xynthia in 2010 or, more recently, the disastrous October 2020 floods in the Alpes-Maritimes. Because of their exceptional nature and the human and material losses they cause, these extreme events are often perceived by the media, politicians, and public opinion as "unforeseen", and they are in a phase of increase and intensification linked to climate change.

This Special Issue therefore aims to study these phenomena from a global perspective by concurrently integrating the historical, statistical, modeling, and socio-economic dimensions of these devastating phenomena, in both metropolitan France and its overseas territories. As a result, it is of interest to experts in climate science as well as economics and social sciences. In terms of topics, this Special Issue will successively address the issue of modeling these phenomena, their cost to society, lessons learned from the past as tools of resilience, and strategies for reducing and preventing these risks.

Prof. Emmanuel Garnier
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

  • extreme climate events
  • France
  • modeling
  • impacts
  • lessons learned
  • disaster risk reduction

Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

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Article
Extreme Low Flow Estimation under Climate Change
Atmosphere 2022, 13(2), 164; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13020164 - 20 Jan 2022
Viewed by 749
Abstract
Climate change’s impact on water availability has been widely studied, including its impact on very rare values quantified by return levels using the statistical extreme value theory. However, the application of this theory to estimate extreme low flows is barely justified due to [...] Read more.
Climate change’s impact on water availability has been widely studied, including its impact on very rare values quantified by return levels using the statistical extreme value theory. However, the application of this theory to estimate extreme low flows is barely justified due to a large temporal dependency and a physically highly bounded lower tail. One possible way of overcoming this difficulty is to simulate a very large sample of river flow time series consistent with the observations or the climate projections in order to enable empirical rare percentile estimations. In this paper, such an approach based on simulation is developed and tested for a small mountainous watershed in the French Alps. A bivariate generator of daily temperature and rainfall, developed in collaboration with Paris-Saclay University and based on hidden Markov models, is used to produce a large number of temperature and rainfall time series, further provided as input to a hydrological model to produce a similarly large sample of river flow time series. This sample is statistically analyzed in terms of low flow occurrence and intensity. This framework is adapted to the analysis of both current climate conditions and projected future climate. To study historical low flow situations, the bivariate temperature and rainfall model is fitted to the observed time series while bias-adjusted climate model outputs are used to calibrate the generator for the projections. The approach seems promising and could be further improved for use in more specific studies dedicated to the climate change impact on local low flow situations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Climate Events in France)
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Article
Historic Storms Detected in a Changing Environment over Recent Centuries in the Belle Henriette Lagoon
Atmosphere 2022, 13(2), 151; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13020151 - 18 Jan 2022
Viewed by 612
Abstract
This paper explores extreme storms with marine flooding events in historical times. It focuses on the challenges associated with detecting these events with a degree of certainty in a changing environment. The paleoenvironmental changes which turned the Gulf of Pictons into the Belle [...] Read more.
This paper explores extreme storms with marine flooding events in historical times. It focuses on the challenges associated with detecting these events with a degree of certainty in a changing environment. The paleoenvironmental changes which turned the Gulf of Pictons into the Belle Henriette lagoon have required the reconstruction of events to be based on cored sediments. This study aims to establish how sedimentological washovers can be detected in a depositional environment that has changed profoundly over recent centuries. The Belle Henriette lagoon site is unique. Despite the profound environmental changes that have taken place, the impact of storms was well preserved in the five cores extracted. Eighteen historical extreme storms with marine floods were detected in the sediment. By cross-referencing with historical archives, thirteen storms were estimated in 1990, 1940, 1896, 1876, 1859, 1838, 1820, 1811, 1751, 1711, 1645, 1469, and 1351. Five older storms dating back to 1090, 1036, 941, 809, and 581 will also be discussed. By conducting a thorough historical review, we can conclude that these extreme storms caused significant damage and had a profound impact on the socioeconomic coastal communities. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Climate Events in France)
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Article
Projected Changes in the Atmospheric Dynamics of Climate Extremes in France
Atmosphere 2021, 12(11), 1440; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111440 - 31 Oct 2021
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Abstract
Extremes of temperature, precipitation and wind have caused damages in France, in the agriculture, transportation and health sectors. Those types of events are largely driven by the atmospheric circulation. The dependence on the global climate change is not always clear, and it is [...] Read more.
Extremes of temperature, precipitation and wind have caused damages in France, in the agriculture, transportation and health sectors. Those types of events are largely driven by the atmospheric circulation. The dependence on the global climate change is not always clear, and it is the subject of extreme event attribution (EEA). This study reports an analysis of the atmospheric circulation over France for seven events that struck France in the 21st century, in various seasons. We focus on the atmospheric dynamics that leads to those extremes and examine how the probability of atmospheric patterns and their predictability responds to climate change. We analyse how the features of those events evolve in simulations following an SSP585 scenario for future climate. We identify how thermodynamical and dynamical changes of the atmosphere affect the predictability of the atmospheric circulation. Those using a range of CMIP6 simulations helps determining uncertainties linked to climate models. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Climate Events in France)
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Article
A Non-Stationary Heat Spell Frequency, Intensity, and Duration Model for France, Integrating Teleconnection Patterns and Climate Change
Atmosphere 2021, 12(11), 1387; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111387 - 22 Oct 2021
Viewed by 817
Abstract
The warming observed over the past summers since 2000 is unprecedented in climate records in Europe and especially in France. Extreme temperatures and heat spells were often analyzed in the literature by applying extreme value theory but rarely in a non-stationary (NS) framework [...] Read more.
The warming observed over the past summers since 2000 is unprecedented in climate records in Europe and especially in France. Extreme temperatures and heat spells were often analyzed in the literature by applying extreme value theory but rarely in a non-stationary (NS) framework and duration modeling is often excluded. For a modern risk-based approach, it is important to have knowledge of the duration, magnitude, and frequency of occurrence of heat spells in a climate variability and change context. Yet, despite their obvious importance, teleconnections and associated climate indices (CIs) have often been excluded from heat spell modelling. The notion of duration is also not easily interpretable in a frequency analysis and can even be subtle, especially in a NS context. In this study, we used time-varying statistical distributions with parameters conditional on covariates representing the time and CIs. The daily maximum temperatures (DMTs) observed at the Orange and Dijon stations in France were used as a case study. This paper highlights a possible relationship between some large-scale climate patterns and the heat spells in France. Overall, the results suggest that considering the combined effect of global warming and these patterns in NS models is useful for a more appropriate characterization of the hazard heat spells in France. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Climate Events in France)
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Review

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Review
A Review on Connecting Research, Policies and Networking in the Area of Climate-Related Extreme Events in the EU with Highlights of French Case Studies
Atmosphere 2022, 13(1), 117; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010117 - 12 Jan 2022
Viewed by 724
Abstract
The increasing severity and frequency of extreme weather and climate events (e.g., floods, heat and cold waves, storms, forest fires) resulting from climate change-compounded vulnerabilities and exposure require a specific research focus. Climate-related extreme events are part of disaster risk reduction policies ruled [...] Read more.
The increasing severity and frequency of extreme weather and climate events (e.g., floods, heat and cold waves, storms, forest fires) resulting from climate change-compounded vulnerabilities and exposure require a specific research focus. Climate-related extreme events are part of disaster risk reduction policies ruled at international, EU, and national levels, covering various sectors and features such as awareness-raising, prevention, mitigation, preparedness, monitoring and detection, response, and recovery. A wide range of research and technological developments, as well as capacity-building and training projects, has supported the development and implementation of these policies and strategies. In particular, research and innovation actions support the paradigm shift from managing “disasters” to managing “risks” and enhancing resilience needs. In this respect, a huge body of knowledge and technology has been developed in the EU-funded Seventh Framework Programme (2007–2013) and Horizon 2020 (2014–2020), for example in the area of measures and technologies needed to enhance the response capacity to extreme weather and climate events affecting the security of people and assets. In addition, networking initiatives have been developed to connect scientists, policy-makers, practitioners, and industry and civil society representatives in order to boost research uptake, identify gaps, and elaborate research programs at EU level. Research and networking efforts are pursued within the newly starting framework program Horizon Europe (2021–2027), with a focus on supporting civil protection operations. This paper provides a general overview of relevant EU policies and examples of past and developing research in the area of weather and climate extreme events and highlights current networking efforts in this area. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Climate Events in France)
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