Search Results (30)

CCS/CCUS is considered vital for global climate mitigation, especially in decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors like upstream oil and gas. In Indonesia, however, its deployment remains limited due to fragmented stakeholder views and lack of integrated policy support. This study explores multi-stakeholder perspectives, including government, academia, business, finance, media, and civil society, on the role and feasibility of CCS/CCUS in achieving the country’s net zero emissions (NZE) target. Using a mixed-method approach, we conducted structured surveys (n = 39) and in-depth interviews (n = 34). Findings reveal broad support for CCS/CCUS but highlight ongoing concerns about economic viability, regulatory uncertainty, and environmental risks. Stakeholders emphasize the need for stronger government incentives and cross-border financing mechanisms. The study underscores the importance of inclusive policymaking, enhanced fiscal support, and integration of CCS/CCUS into Indonesia’s carbon economic value framework to ensure a more participatory and sustainable climate policy pathway. Full article

This study compared standard VAR, SVAR with short-run restrictions, and SVAR with long-run restrictions to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and the foreign exchange rate (ZAR/USD) on consumer prices in South Africa after the 2008 financial crisis. The standard VAR model revealed that consumer prices responded positively to oil price shocks in the short term, whereas the foreign exchange rate (ZAR/USD) revealed a fluctuating currency over time. That is, the South African rand (ZAR) initially appreciated against the US dollar (USD) in response to oil price shocks (periods 1:7), followed by a depreciation in periods 8:12. Imposing short-run restrictions on the SVAR model revealed that the foreign exchange rate (ZAR/USD) reacted to oil price shocks in a manner similar to the VAR model, with ZAR appreciating during the initial periods (1:7) and subsequently depreciating in the later periods (8:12). Consumer prices responded positively to oil price shocks, causing consumer prices to increase in the short run, which is consistent with the VAR findings. However, imposing long-run restrictions on our SVAR model yielded results that contrasted with those obtained under short-run restrictions and the standard VAR model. That is, oil price shocks had long-lasting effects on the foreign exchange rate, resulting in the depreciation of ZAR relative to USD over time. Additionally, oil price shocks reduced consumer prices, resulting in a deflationary effect in the long run. This study concluded that South Africa’s position as a net oil importer with a floating exchange rate renders the country vulnerable to short-term external shocks. Nonetheless, in the long term, the results indicated that the economy tends to adapt to oil price shocks over time. Full article

It is of the utmost importance for every country to monitor and control maritime pollution within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) has developed and implemented the CleanSeaNet (CSN) satellite monitoring system to aid in the surveillance and control of hydrocarbon and hazardous substance spills in the ocean. This system’s primary objective is to alert European Union (EU) coastal states to potential spills within their EEZs, enabling them to take the necessary legal and operational actions. To reduce operational costs and increase response capability, the feasibility of implementing a national network (NN) of unmanned vehicles (UVs), both surface and aerial, was explored using a Portuguese case study. The following approach and analysis can be easily generalized to other case studies, bringing essential knowledge to the field. Analyzing oil spill alert events in the Portuguese EEZ between 2017 and 2021 and performing a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis, essential information has been proposed for the optimal location of an NN of UVs. The study results demonstrate that integrating spill alerts at sea with UVs may significantly improve response time, costs, and personnel involvement, making maritime pollution combat actions more effective. Full article

This paper delves into the critical determinants of renewable energy consumption, focusing on the contrasting roles of oil imports and exports. It aims to bridge the knowledge gap by comparing these determinants across both oil-importing and oil-exporting nations, offering a comprehensive and nuanced perspective to inform policy recommendations. Using annual data from 1990 to 2018 sourced from the World Bank database, the study employs panel multiple regression analysis and adopts a fixed effects model to explore two main questions: What drives the use of renewable energy sources? How does a country’s oil importer or exporter status affect these factors? The findings reveal a significant but inverse relationship between oil rents and renewable energy consumption (REC) for both types of countries. Additionally, there is a notable negative correlation between GDP growth and REC for both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Interestingly, the crude oil average closing price and inflation show an insignificant impact on REC in both contexts. The study also highlights that net energy imports significantly affect REC, with a much stronger inverse relationship in oil-importing countries compared with oil-exporting ones. For oil-importing countries, diversifying energy sources is a crucial investment. Governments should prioritize research and development in renewable energy to spur technological advancements, enhancing efficiency and affordability. Economic growth-promoting policies, such as tax incentives and subsidies for renewable energy businesses, are vital for encouraging sustainable practices. Consistent, long-term policies are essential for providing investor confidence and supporting the transition to renewable energy. For oil-exporting countries, similar strategies are recommended. Additionally, allocating a portion of oil revenues to renewable energy infrastructure and funding research and development in renewable technologies through local universities and startups are crucial steps. This dual approach will not only enhance energy diversification but also foster innovation and sustainability in the energy sector. Full article

Rapeseed is one of China’s major oil crops, and accurate yield forecasting is crucial to the growth of the rapeseed industry and the country’s food security. In this study, the data on natural and socio-economic factors from 2001 to 2020 and the yield of rapeseed in China were used as the data basis. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the relationship between the influencing factors and the yield of rapeseed, and the prediction effect of four machine learning models (linear regression (LR), decision tree (DTR), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM)) on the yield of rapeseed was compared in China’s main rapeseed-producing area. The results demonstrate that the yield of rapeseed in China showed an increasing trend, but fluctuated greatly. Rural electricity consumption, gross agricultural production, the net amount of agricultural fertilizer application, effective irrigation area, total power of agricultural machinery, and consumption of agricultural plastic film had a positive effect on the increase in rapeseed yield. However, due to the impact of climate change and disasters, the yield of rapeseed has had significant fluctuations. A Pearson correlation analysis showed that socio-economic factors (rural electricity consumption, gross agricultural production, effective irrigation area, total power of agricultural machinery, consumption of agricultural plastic film, etc.) played a dominant role in rapeseed yield changes. The RF model had a good prediction effect on rapeseed yield, and natural factors and socio-economic factors had different effects on spring rapeseed and winter rapeseed. Winter rapeseed yield was mainly affected by socio-economic factors, accounting for as high as 89% of the importance. Among them, the sown area of rapeseed and the effective irrigation area had the greatest impact. The effects of natural factors and socio-economic factors on spring rapeseed yield were similar, accounting for 47% and 53%, respectively, and the mean annual precipitation, sunshine duration, and sown area of rapeseed were the most influential variables. Full article

The shift to renewable sources of energy has become a critical economic priority in African countries due to energy challenges. However, investors in the development of renewable energy face problems with decision making due to the existence of multiple criteria, such as oil prices and the associated macroeconomic performance. This study aims to analyze the differential effects of international oil prices and other macroeconomic factors on the development of renewable energy in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries in Africa. The study uses a panel vector error correction model (P-VECM) to analyze data from five net oil exporters (Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Libya and Nigeria) and five net oil importers (Kenya, Ethiopia, Congo, Mozambique and South Africa). The study finds that higher oil prices positively affect the development of renewable energy in oil-importing countries by making renewable energy more economically competitive. Economic growth is also identified as a major driver of the development of renewable energy. While high-interest rates negatively affect the development of renewable energy in oil-importing countries, it has positive effects in oil-exporting countries. Exchange rates play a crucial role in the development of renewable energy in both types of countries with a negative effect in oil-exporting countries and a positive effect in oil-importing countries. The findings of this study suggest that policymakers should take a holistic approach to the development of renewable energy that considers the complex interplay of factors, such as oil prices, economic growth, interest rates, and exchange rates. Full article

This study aims to analyze the impact of oil shocks on the external balance of Saudi Arabia, as one of the largest net oil-exporting countries. To this end, a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model (TVP-VAR) is estimated by using quarterly data covering the period between 1991: Q1 and 2021: Q4. We find that identifying the source of shocks plays an important role in understanding the time-varying impact of shocks on its economy. Our findings indicate that the global oil production shocks excluding Saudi Arabia have a negative and significant impact on the trade balance and are greater than the impact of the Saudi oil production shocks, which is not significant for most of the period. In addition, we found that oil price shocks have more profound and much greater impacts than global and domestic oil supply shocks. This may be attributed to the fact that oil price shocks are more than oil supply shocks, and supply shocks are linked to oil price shocks. However, impulse responses show that the effects of oil shocks are volatile over time and their effects are generally more pronounced during and immediately after global shocks. Our findings have serious implications for the trade balance of Saudi Arabia, particularly in the low and volatile oil price environment. Full article

The aim of this study was to investigate and compare investment opportunities in the financial markets of Saudi Arabia, a net oil-exporting country, and Turkey, a net oil-importing country, in the Middle East. The international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) was extended by considering local factors proxied by country risk (CR) and oil price risk exposures of the excess returns of Saudi Arabia and Turkey. In this study, we employed the extended ICAPM in a two-state Markov-switching setting for the sample period of January 2005 to December 2018 to explore whether the risk premium is time-varying. The results suggested that systematic risk is time-varying depending on the state of the financial markets and is affected by both global and local factors. Saudi Arabia offered higher excess returns during the high-volatility regime compared to that of the World Index and enjoyed higher returns during the low-risk regime from oil price shocks. Turkey was negatively affected by oil price shocks and was rather sensitive to the country’s risk factor, which varied with both the state of the market and the time factor. These findings will be useful to international investors in diversifying their risks. This study differs from others in estimating the risk premium (beta) by taking into account both the local and global factors and the dynamic nature of systematic risk. Full article

The energy security of each country is one of the main factors of its proper functioning. Currently, in the era of problems related to energy security resulting from, among other things, the war in Ukraine, this topic is particularly important. This article presents issues related to Poland’s energy security, understood as the financial and economic stability of enterprises operating in the energy industry. This stability is considered in two aspects: macroeconomic, where the focus is mainly on the aspect of state intervention in market processes; and microeconomic, where factors determining the financial security of energy enterprises were identified, including internal and external factors affecting the functioning of these entities. In order to achieve the assumed research goals, the analysis of the indicated problems was based on non-reactive research, consisting in the assessment of the available information. It included studies of normative acts, official statistical data, industry reports and analyses, as well as data obtained in the form of a public information request. Two basic research methods were used in the work—dogmatic–legal and comparative analyses. The identification of factors affecting the security of companies in the sector was carried out on the basis of data on the entire energy sector in Poland for the years 2015–2021 on a semi-annual basis. Vector-autoregressive models were used for the analysis. As a result of the analyses, it was established that market failures and public safety are the premises justifying the public financing of enterprises in the electricity generation, transmission, distribution and trade sectors. At the same time, the conducted research showed that the level of financial security of energy enterprises in Poland was affected by the ratio of the value of goods and materials sold to net sales revenue, as well as the level of EBIT (earnings before deducting interest and taxes) margin, and among external factors, the level of GDP (gross domestic product), CPI (consumer price index) and Crude Oil were important. Full article

China’s trade of agricultural products has expanded rapidly over the past two decades, resulting in considerable shifts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide. This study aims to explore the evolution of GHG emissions embodied in China’s trade of agricultural products from 1995 to 2015. The GHG emissions embodied in China’s exports of agricultural products experienced three stages of fluctuation, showing a significant upward trend (1995–2003), a fluctuating trend (2004–2007), and a fall back to the previous level (2008–2015). The embodied GHG emissions in China’s imports were witnessed at times of sustained growth, rising from 10.5 Mt CO₂-eq in 1995 to 107.7 Mt CO₂-eq in 2015. The net import of embodied GHG emissions has grown at an average annual rate of 25.1% since 2008. In terms of regional contribution, the distribution of China’s trading partners tended to be diversified. The increasing net imports of oil crops to China resulted in a significant GHG emissions shift from China to the US and Brazil. Asian countries contributed to 76.9% of the total GHG emissions embodied in China’s agricultural exports. The prominent impacts of China’s trade of agricultural products on global GHG emissions provide important implications for climate-related policy choices. Full article

Understanding trends of vegetation evolution and its spatial characteristics is critical for sustainable social development in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), which is densely populated and still has uneven economic development. Through Theil–Sen/Mann–Kendall tests, polynomial regression and bivariate local autocorrelation analyses, we investigated vegetation greening trends and their spatial correlation with bioclimatic and environmental variables. The study yielded the following results: (1) Land cover in the GMS has changed significantly over the last 20 years. Conversion between forest and grassland was the main type of change. (2) The upward trend in the forest enhanced vegetation index (EVI) significantly exceeded the downward trend in countries over 20 years. In GMS, the spatial variation in forest trend slope values ranged from −0.0297 a⁻¹ to 0.0152 a⁻¹. (3) Anthropogenic activities have played an important role in forest greening; planted, plantation and oil palm forests exhibit the largest contributions to greening. (4) Changes in forest EVI were most spatially correlated with radiation (12.19% for surface net solar radiation and 12.14% for surface solar radiation downwards) and least spatially correlated with seasonality precipitation (8.33%) and mean annual temperature (8.19%). The results of the analysis of EVI trends in vegetation and their spatial correlation with bioclimatic and environmental variables can provide a reference for strategies aimed for protecting the vegetation ecology. Full article

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is making significant progress in improving its economy by attracting tourists and trade. In the short run, however, economic activity will continue to be more based on oil, natural gas, and related industries. Rising demand for natural gas for power plants and industrial users, such as petrochemicals and steelmakers, has made the UAE a net gas importer, prompting the country to launch multibillion-dollar investments in nuclear and renewable energy. This study addresses the trend of solar energy production and consumption in the UAE. The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis was performed on the different types of solar energy in the UAE, and some strategies were developed based on it. The SWOT analysis reveals promising strategies for the UAE’s solar energy transition that would reduce fossil fuel demand, mitigate greenhouse gas emissions through solar energy production, and transform the UAE into the carbon market centre of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Full article

Geopolitical conflicts, involving a major player in the world market, affect the prices of oil and commodities, particularly in oil-importing countries. Consequently, the unprecedented changes in oil prices impact investments in energy transition projects. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of investment decisions in energy transition under uncertainties in geopolitical risks. This research applies the Black-Scholes-based real options valuation to value the flexibility in postponing energy transition investments considering the repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine war. Applying the proposed model to the case of the Philippines, the valuation result with a net present value of USD 231 million for a 1 GW capacity shows that energy transition is a viable project when the cost savings from using fossil fuels to renewables are considered. On the other hand, real options valuation finds a higher flexibility value of USD 990 million, which implies a better decision to postpone the project. The uncertainty in geopolitical conflicts further increases this value causing a longer waiting period to implement the energy transition project. Sensitivity analysis shows that the results are robust to changes in the explanatory variables. Results provide policy implications on making an oil-importing country energy self-sufficient and robust from economic and geopolitical shocks. Full article

The ten nations of Southeast Asia, collectively known as ASEAN, emitted 1.65 Gtpa CO₂ in 2020, and are among the most vulnerable nations to climate change, which is partially caused by anthropogenic CO₂ emission. This paper analyzes the history of ASEAN energy consumption and CO₂ emission from both fossil and renewable energies in the last two decades. The results show that ASEAN’s renewable energies resources range from low to moderate, are unevenly distributed geographically, and contributed to only 20% of total primary energy consumption (TPEC) in 2015. The dominant forms of renewable energies are hydropower, solar photovoltaic, and bioenergy. However, both hydropower and bioenergy have substantial sustainability issues. Fossil energies depend heavily on coal and oil and contribute to 80% of TPEC. More importantly, renewable energies’ contribution to TPEC has been decreasing in the last two decades, despite the increasing installation capacity. This suggests that the current rate of the addition of renewable energy capacity is inadequate to allow ASEAN to reach net-zero by 2050. Therefore, fossil energies will continue to be an important part of ASEAN’s energy mix. More tools, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen, will be needed for decarbonization. CCS will be needed to decarbonize ASEAN’s fossil power and industrial plants, while blue hydrogen will be needed to decarbonize hard-to-decarbonize industrial plants. Based on recent research into regional CO₂ source-sink mapping, this paper proposes six large-scale CCS projects in four countries, which can mitigate up to 300 Mtpa CO₂. Furthermore, this paper identifies common pathways for ASEAN decarbonization and their policy implications. Full article

Climate change already affects all inhabited regions of the world, with human influence contributing to many observed changes in climate extremes and to mitigate this trend, important decisions have been taken by different world organizations and countries to achieve global net-zero emissions. At the European Union level (EU27 countries), two of the main pillars for achieving carbon neutrality are: (1) The “Energy Efficiency First principle” in the formulation of energy policy and in taking relevant investment decisions and (2) the electrification of the energy sector, supported by generating electricity through endogenous renewable energy sources. In this context, a comprehensive review was carried out on what has been developed by the scientific community and main international energy organizations on the electrification of the energy sector. Additionally, with the purpose of better understanding the state of the art of a country regarding the decarbonization process, the Portuguese energy vectors were identified in terms of which ones can and should be electrified by 2050, based on the data available from Eurostat (2019). Portugal is a country highly dependent on imported energy (78%), where the largest energy vector is from oil and petroleum products (68%) mostly used in the transport sector, where the electrification of the sector will be increased gradually until 2050. However, other decarbonized solutions, such as biofuels and synthetic (green) fuels cannot be ruled out and should be the subject of future work and considered for the decarbonization goals to be achieved in 2050. The main conclusions reflect that there is still a long way to go, much like the rest of the world, as it is necessary to electrify the equivalent to almost all the energy presently imported by Portugal, a tough challenge considering the need for its generation to be decarbonized. In this context, energy efficiency must play an equivalently important role to significantly reduce current energy demand, leading to more cost-effective and resilient energy services. Full article