Search Results (209)

Climate-driven hydrological extremes and anthropogenic interventions are increasingly altering streamflow regimes worldwide. While prior studies have explored climate or regulation effects separately, few have integrated multiple teleconnection indices and reservoir chronologies within a cross-basin comparative framework. This study addresses this gap by assessing long-term streamflow nonstationarity and its drivers at two key stations—Khabarovsk on the Amur River and Datong on the Yangtze River—representing distinct hydroclimatic settings. We utilized monthly discharge records, meteorological data, and large-scale climate indices to apply trend analysis, wavelet transform, percentile-based extreme diagnostics, lagged random forest regression, and slope-based attribution. The results show that Khabarovsk experienced an increase in winter baseflow from 513 to 1335 m³/s and a notable reduction in seasonal discharge contrast, primarily driven by temperature and cold-region reservoir regulation. In contrast, Datong displayed increased discharge extremes, with flood discharges increasing by +71.9 m³/s/year, equivalent to approximately 0.12% of the mean flood discharge annually, and low discharges by +24.2 m³/s/year in recent decades, shaped by both climate variability and large-scale hydropower infrastructure. Random forest models identified temperature and precipitation as short-term drivers, with ENSO-related indices showing lagged impacts on streamflow variability. Attribution analysis indicated that Khabarovsk is primarily shaped by cold-region reservoir operations in conjunction with temperature-driven snowmelt dynamics, while Datong reflects a combined influence of both climate variability and regulation. These insights may provide guidance for climate-responsive reservoir scheduling and basin-specific regulation strategies, supporting the development of integrated frameworks for adaptive water management under climate change. Full article

Accurate prediction of landslide-induced displacement is essential for the structural integrity and operational safety of buildings and infrastructure situated in geologically unstable regions. This study introduces a novel hybrid predictive framework that synergistically integrates Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with Temporal Convolutional Neural Networks (TCNs), herein referred to as the GTCN model, to forecast displacement at building monitoring points subject to landslide activity. The proposed methodology is validated using time-series monitoring data collected from the slope adjacent to the Zhongliang Reservoir in Wuxi County, Chongqing, an area where slope instability poses a significant threat to nearby structural assets. Experimental results demonstrate the GTCN model’s superior predictive performance, particularly under challenging conditions of incomplete or sparsely sampled data. The model proves highly effective in accurately characterizing both abrupt fluctuations within the displacement time series and capturing long-term deformation trends. Furthermore, the GTCN framework outperforms comparative hybrid models based on Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and GPR, with its advantage being especially pronounced in data-limited scenarios. It also exhibits enhanced capability for temporal feature extraction relative to conventional imputation-based forecasting strategies like forward-filling. By effectively modeling both nonlinear trends and uncertainty within displacement sequences, the GTCN framework offers a robust and scalable solution for landslide-related risk assessment and early warning applications. Its applicability to building safety monitoring underscores its potential contribution to geotechnical hazard mitigation and resilient infrastructure management. Full article

A systems-oriented review of machine learning (ML) over the entire flood management spectrum, encompassing fluvial flood control, pluvial flood management, and resiliency-risk characterization was undertaken. Deep learners like long short-term memory (LSTM) networks perform well in predicting reservoir inflows and outflows. Convolution neural networks (CNNs) and other object identification algorithms are being explored in assessing levee and flood wall failures. The use of ML methods in pump station operations is limited due to lack of public-domain datasets. Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown promise in controlling low-impact development (LID) systems for pluvial flood management. Resiliency is defined in terms of the vulnerability of a community to floods. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) and unsupervised ML methods are used to capture vulnerability. Supervised learning is used to model flooding hazards. Conventional approaches perform better than deep learners and ensemble methods for modeling flood hazards due to paucity of data and large inter-model predictive variability. Advances in satellite-based, drone-facilitated data collection and Internet of Things (IoT)-based low-cost sensors offer new research avenues to explore. Transfer learning at ungauged basins holds promise but is largely unexplored. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is seeing increased use and helps the transition of ML models from black-box forecasters to knowledge-enhancing predictors. Full article

Asynchrony between the movement of water and sediment in a reservoir will affect long-term maintenance of the reservoir’s capacity to a certain extent. Based on water and sediment data on the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) measured over the years and a river network model, optimization of the dispatching mode of the reservoir’s sand peak process was studied, and the corresponding water and sediment dispatching indicators were provided. The results show that (1) sand peak discharge dispatching of the TGR can be divided roughly into three stages, namely the flood detention period, the sediment transport period, and the sediment discharge period. (2) According to the process of the flood peak and the sand peak, a division method for each period is proposed. (3) A corresponding scheduling index is proposed according to the characteristics of the sand peak process and the needs of flood control scheduling. This research can provide operational indicators for the operation and management of the sediment load in the TGR and also provide technical support for sustainable reservoirs similar to TGR. Full article

Accurate reservoir outflow simulation is crucial for water resource management. However, traditional machine learning-based simulation methods have not sufficiently considered the physical constraints of reservoir operation, which may lead to unrealistic issues such as negative outflows or water levels exceeding the reservoir’s own limitations. This study integrates physical constraints into the random forest (RF) model using the Sigmoid function, constructing a physics-constrained random forest model (PC-RF) for cascade reservoir outflow simulation. A stratified sampling strategy based on hydrological year types is used to create the training and validation datasets. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) are used to evaluate the model’s performance for medium- to long-term predictions of reservoir outflows on a 10-day time scale. Additionally, the mean decrease in impurity method is used to assess the importance of input features, thereby enhancing the model’s interpretability. The application the Yalong River cascade reservoir indicates that (1) compared to traditional RF, the PC-RF achieved significant breakthroughs, with an increase of 37.13% in the R² and a decrease of 60.04% in the RMSE when simulating outflows from the Lianghekou Reservoir, with all reservoirs maintaining an R² above 0.95, with no instances of unrealistic outcomes; (2) PC-RF effectively integrated historical operational patterns with top three features being previous period outflow, current inflow, and previous period inflow, providing interpretable insights for operational decision-making. The PC-RF model demonstrates high accuracy and practical potential in cascade reservoir outflow simulation, providing valuable applications for cascade reservoir management and water resource optimization. Full article

This study conducted uniaxial creep tests on coal samples under both natural and water-saturated conditions for durations of about 180 days per sample to study the stability of coal pillar dams of the Daliuta Coal Mine underground reservoir. Combined with synchronized acoustic emission (AE) monitoring, the research systematically revealed the time-dependent deformation mechanisms and damage evolution laws of coal under prolonged water immersion and natural conditions. The results indicate that water-immersed coal exhibits a unique negative creep phenomenon at the initial stage, with the strain rate down to −0.00086%/d, attributed to non-uniform pore compaction and elastic rebound effects. During the steady-state creep phase, the creep rates under water-immersed and natural conditions were comparable. However, water immersion led to an 11.4% attenuation in elastic modulus, decreasing from 2300 MPa to 2037 MPa. Water immersion would also suppress AE activity, leading to the average daily AE events of 128, which is only 25% of that under natural conditions. In the accelerating creep stage, the AE event rate surged abruptly, validating its potential as an early warning indicator for coal pillar instability. Based on the identified long-term strength of the coal sample, it is recommended to maintain operational loads below the threshold of 9 MPa. This research provides crucial theoretical foundations and experimental data for optimizing the design and safety monitoring of coal pillar dams in CMURs. Full article

With the continuous improvement of reservoir projects and the advancement of digital twin basin initiatives in China, rapidly and accurately generating long-term practical reservoir operation schedules has become a key priority for stakeholders. This study proposes a Theory-guided Long Short-Term Memory (TgLSTM) model to extract optimal reservoir operation rules accurately and reliably. Concretely, TgLSTM integrates data-fitting accuracy with the physical constraints of an operation, e.g., water level constraints and minimal discharge constraints, to address the low credibility often observed in conventional LSTM networks. Using the Three Gorges Reservoir during the dry season as a case study, a multi-year hydrological series optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO) was used to train the TgLSTM network and derive optimized operation rules. Results show that TgLSTM efficiently generates operation schemes close to the theoretical optimum, achieving power generations of 4.27 × 10¹⁰ kW·h and 4.19 × 10¹⁰ kW·h in two test years, with deviations of only 4.20% and 2.33%, respectively. Compared to traditional LSTM models, TgLSTM is more reliable as it captures key operational characteristics such as terminal water levels and water level fluctuations, maintaining an average ten-day drawdown depth below 1.5 m—significantly lower than the 7 m fluctuations observed with conventional LSTM. Furthermore, comparative analyses against SwR, BP–ANN, and SVM confirm that TgLSTM offers a moderate performance in absolute metrics but is the best to simulate the constrained reservoir operation. Full article

Acid gas injection (AGI), which primarily involves injecting hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) and carbon dioxide (CO₂), is recognized as a cost-efficient and environmentally sustainable method for controlling sour gas emissions in oil and gas operations. This review examines case studies of twelve AGI projects conducted in Canada, Oman, and Kazakhstan, focusing on reservoir selection, leakage potential assessment, and geological suitability evaluation. Globally, several million tonnes of acid gases have already been sequestered, with Canada being a key contributor. The study provides a critical analysis of geochemical modeling data, monitoring activities, and injection performance to assess long-term gas containment potential. It also explores AGI’s role in Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), noting that oil production can increase by up to 20% in carbonate rock formations. By integrating technical and regulatory insights, this review offers valuable guidance for implementing AGI in geologically similar regions worldwide. The findings presented here support global efforts to reduce CO₂ emissions, and provide practical direction for scaling-up acid gas storage in deep subsurface environments. Full article

To address the critical demand for high-precision forecasts in flood management, real-time error correction techniques are increasingly implemented to improve the accuracy and operational reliability of the hydrological prediction framework. However, developing a robust error correction scheme remains a significant challenge due to the compounded errors inherent in hydrological modeling frameworks. In this study, a Bayesian ensemble learning-based correction (BELC) scheme is proposed which integrates hydrological modeling with multiple machine learning methods to enhance real-time error correction for flood forecasting. The Xin’anjiang (XAJ) model is selected as the hydrological model for this study, given its proven effectiveness in flood forecasting across humid and semi-humid regions, combining structural simplicity with demonstrated predictive accuracy. The BELC scheme straightforwardly post-processes the output of the XAJ model under the Bayesian ensemble learning framework. Four machine learning methods are implemented as base learners: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, a light gradient-boosting machine (LGBM), temporal convolutional networks (TCN), and random forest (RF). Optimal weights for all base learners are determined by the K-means clustering technique and Bayesian optimization in the BELC scheme. Four baseline schemes constructed by base learners and three ensemble learning-based schemes are also built for comparison purposes. The performance of the BELC scheme is systematically evaluated in the Hengshan Reservoir watershed (Fenghua City, China). Results indicate the following: (1) The BELC scheme achieves better performance in both accuracy and robustness compared to the four baseline schemes and three ensemble learning-based schemes. The average performance metrics for 1–3 h lead times are 0.95 (NSE), 0.92 (KGE), 24.25 ${\mathrm{m}}^3/\mathrm{s}$ (RMSE), and 8.71% (RPE), with a PTE consistently below 1 h in advance. (2) The K-means clustering technique proves particularly effective with the ensemble learning framework for high flow ranges, where the correction performance exhibits an increment of 62%, 100%, and 100% for 1 h, 2 h, and 3 h lead hours, respectively. Overall, the BELC scheme demonstrates the potential of a Bayesian ensemble learning framework in improving real-time error correction of flood forecasting systems. Full article

High-accuracy streamflow forecasting with long lead times can help promote the efficient utilization of water resources. However, the construction of cascade reservoirs has allowed the evolution of natural continuous rivers into multi-block rivers. The existing streamflow forecasting methods fail to consider the impact of reservoir operation. Thus, a novel short-term streamflow forecasting method for multi-block watersheds was proposed by integrating machine learning and hydrological models. Firstly, based on IMERG precipitation, the forecast precipitation product’s error is corrected by the long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). Secondly, coupling convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) and LSTM, operation rules for cascade reservoirs are extracted. Thirdly, a short-term deterministic streamflow forecasting model was built for multi-block watersheds. Finally, according to the sources of forecasting errors, probabilistic streamflow forecasting models based on the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) were proposed, and their performances were compared. Taking the Yalong River as an example, the main results are as follows: (1) Deep learning models (ConvLSTM and LSTM) show good performance in forecast precipitation correction and reservoir operation rule extraction, contributing to streamflow forecasting accuracy. (2) The proposed streamflow deterministic forecasting method has good forecasting performance with NSE above 0.83 for the following 1–5 days. (3) The GMM model, using upstream evolutionary forecasted streamflow, interval forecasted streamflow, and downstream forecasted streamflow as the input–output combination, has good probabilistic forecasting performance and can adequately characterize the “non-normality” and “heteroskedasticity” of forecasting uncertainty. Full article

Underground production and injection operations result in mechanical compaction and mineral chemical reactions that alter porosity and permeability. These changes impact the flow and, eventually, the long-term sustainability of reservoirs utilized for CO₂ sequestration and geothermal energy. Even though mechanical and chemical deformations in rocks take place at the pore scale, it is important to investigate their impact at the continuum scale. Rock deformation can be examined using intergranular pressure solution (IPS) models, primarily for uniaxial compaction. Because the reaction rate parameters are estimated using empirical methods and the assumption of constant mineral saturation indices, these models frequently overestimate the rates of compaction and strain by several orders of magnitude. This study presents a new THMC algorithm by combining thermo-mechanical computation with a fractal approach and hydrochemical computations using PHREEQC to evaluate the pressure solution. Thermal stress and strain under axisymmetric conditions are calculated analytically by combining a derived hollow circle mechanical structure with a thermal resistance model. Based on the pore scale, porosity and its impact on the overall excessive stress and strain rate in a domain are estimated by applying the fractal scaling law. Relevant datasets from CO₂ core flooding experiments are used to validate the proposed approach. The comparison is consistent with experimental findings, and the novel analytical method allows for faster inspection compared to numerical simulations. Full article

The sharp decline in streamflow prediction accuracy with increasing lead times remains a persistent challenge for effective water resources management and flood mitigation. In this study, we developed a coupled deep learning model for daily streamflow prediction in the Hanjiang River Basin, China. The proposed model integrates self-attention (SA), a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN), and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM). The model’s effectiveness was assessed during flood events, and its predictive uncertainty was quantified using kernel density estimation (KDE). The results demonstrate that the proposed model consistently outperforms baseline models across all lead times. It achieved Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) scores of 0.92, 0.86, and 0.79 for 1-, 3-, and 5-days, respectively, showing particular strength at these extended lead time predictions. During major flood events, the model demonstrated an enhanced capacity to capture peak magnitudes and timings. It achieved the highest NSE values of 0.924, 0.862, and 0.797 for the 1-, 3-, and 5-day forecasting horizons, respectively, thereby showcasing the strengths of integrating CNN and SA mechanisms for recognizing local hydrological patterns. Furthermore, KDE-based uncertainty analysis identified a high prediction interval coverage in different forecast periods and a relatively narrow prediction interval width, indicating the strong robustness of the proposed model. Overall, the proposed SA-CNN-BiLSTM model demonstrates significantly improved accuracy, especially for extended lead times and flood events, and provides robust uncertainty quantification, thereby offering a more reliable tool for reservoir operation and flood risk management. Full article

Increasing concern over climate change has made Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) an important tool. Operators use deep geologic reservoirs as a form of favorable geological storage for long-term CO₂ sequestration. However, the success of CCS hinges on the integrity of wells penetrating these formations, particularly legacy wells, which often exhibit significant uncertainties regarding cement tops in the annular space between the casing and formation, especially around or below the primary seal. Misalignment of cement plugs with the primary seal increases the risk of CO₂ migrating beyond the seal, potentially creating pathways for fluid flow into upper formations, including underground sources of drinking water (USDW). These wells may not be leaking but might fail to meet the legal requirements of some federal and state agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC), California CalGEM, and Pennsylvania DEP. This review evaluates the impact of CO₂ exposure on cement and casing integrity including the fluid transport mechanisms, fracture behaviors, and operational stresses such as cyclic loading. Findings revealed that slow fluid circulation and confining pressure, primarily from overburden stress, promote self-sealing through mineral precipitation and elastic crack closure, enhancing well integrity. Sustained casing pressure can be a good indicator of well integrity status. While full-physics models provide accurate leakage prediction, surrogate models offer faster results as risk assessment tools. Comprehensive data collection on wellbore conditions, cement and casing properties, and environmental factors is essential to enhance predictive models, refine risk assessments, and develop effective remediation strategies for the long-term success of CCS projects. Full article

Under the combined influence of climate change and human activities, the non-stationarity of reservoir runoff has significantly intensified, posing challenges for traditional statistical models to accurately capture its multi-scale abrupt changes. This study focuses on Qianping (QP) Reservoir and systematically integrates climate-driven mechanisms with machine learning approaches to uncover the patterns of runoff evolution and develop high-precision prediction models. The findings offer a novel paradigm for adaptive reservoir operation under non-stationary conditions. In this paper, we employ methods including extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD), Bayesian ensemble time series decomposition (BETS), and cross-wavelet transform (XWT) to investigate the variation trends and mutation features of the annual runoff in QP Reservoir. Additionally, four models—ARIMA, LSTM, LSTM-RF, and LSTM-CNN—are utilized for runoff prediction and analysis. The results indicate that: (1) the annual runoff of QP Reservoir exhibits a quasi-8.25-year mid-short-term cycle and a quasi-13.20-year long-term cycle on an annual scale; (2) by using Bayesian estimators based on abrupt change year detection and trend variation algorithms, an abrupt change point with a probability of 79.1% was identified in 1985, with a confidence interval spanning 1984 to 1986; (3) cross-wavelet analysis indicates that the periodic associations between the annual runoff of QP Reservoir and climate-driving factors exhibit spatiotemporal heterogeneity: the AMO, AO, and PNA show multi-scale synergistic interactions; the DMI and ENSO display only phase-specific weak coupling; while solar sunspot activity modulates runoff over long-term cycles; and (4) The NSE of the ARIMA, LSTM, LSTM-RF, and LSTM-CNN models all exceed 0.945, the RMSE is below 0.477 × 10⁹ m³, and the MAE is below 0.297 × 10⁹ m³, Among them, the LSTM-RF model demonstrated the highest accuracy and the most stable predicted fluctuations, indicating that future annual runoff will continue to fluctuate but with a decreasing amplitude. Full article

Accurately forecasting the degradation trajectory of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) across a spectrum of operational scenarios is indispensable for effective maintenance scheduling and robust health surveillance. However, this task is highly intricate due to the fluctuating nature of dynamic operating conditions and the limitations inherent in short-term forecasting techniques, which collectively pose significant challenges to achieving reliable predictions. To enhance the accuracy of PEMFC degradation forecasting, this research proposes an integrated approach that combines the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with the variational mode decomposition (CEEMD-VMD) and triple echo state network (TriESN) to predict the deterioration process precisely. Decomposition can filter out high-frequency noise and retain low-frequency degradation information effectively. Among data-driven methods, the echo state network (ESN) is capable of estimating the degradation performance of PEMFCs. To tackle the problem of low prediction accuracy, this study proposes a novel TriESN that builds upon the classical ESN. The proposed enhancement method seeks to refine the ESN architecture by reducing the impact of surrounding neurons and sub-reservoirs on active neurons, thus realizing partial decoupling of the ESN. On this basis of decoupling, the method takes into account the multi-timescale aging characteristics of PEMFCs to achieve precise prediction of remaining useful life. Overall, combining CEEMD-VMD with the TriESN strengthens feature depiction, fosters sparsity, diminishes the likelihood of overfitting, and augments the network’s capacity for generalization. It has been shown that the TriESN markedly improved the accuracy of long-term PEMFC degradation predictions in three different dynamic contexts. Full article