Search Results (5,210)

The compound effects of extreme climate change and intensive urban development have led to more frequent urban inundation, highlighting the urgent need for the fine-scale evaluation of stormwater drainage system performance in high-density urban built-up areas. A typical basin, located in Shenzhen, was selected, and a pipe–river coupled SWMM was developed and calibrated via a genetic algorithm to simulate the storm drainage system. Design storm scenario analyses revealed that regional inundation occurred in the central area of the basin and the enclosed culvert sections of the midstream river, even under a 0.5-year recurrence period, while the downstream open river channels maintained a substantial drainage capacity under a 200-year rainfall event. To systematically identify bottleneck zones, two novel metrics, namely, the node cumulative inundation volume and the conduit cumulative inundation length, were proposed to quantify the local inundation severity and spatial interactions across the drainage network. Two critical bottleneck zones were selected, and strategic improvement via the cross-sectional expansion of pipes and river culverts significantly enhanced the drainage efficiency. This study provides a practical case study and transferable technical framework for integrating hydraulic modeling, spatial analytics, and targeted infrastructure upgrades to enhance the resilience of drainage systems in high-density urban environments, offering an actionable framework for sustainable urban stormwater drainage system management. Full article

The city of Acapulco was impacted by two near-consecutive hurricanes. On 25 October 2023, Hurricane Otis made landfall, reaching the highest Category 5 storm on the Saffir–Simpson scale, causing extensive coastal destruction due to extreme winds and waves. Nearly one year later (23 September 2024), Hurricane John—a Category 2 storm—caused severe flooding despite its lower intensity, primarily due to its unusual trajectory and prolonged rainfall. Digital shoreline analysis of PlanetScope images (captured one month before and after Hurricane Otis) revealed that the southern coast of Acapulco, specifically Zona Diamante—where the major seafront hotels are located—experienced substantial shoreline erosion (94 ha) and damage. In the northwestern section of the study area, the Coyuca Bar experienced the most dramatic geomorphological change in surface area. This was primarily due to the complete disappearance of the bar on October 26, which resulted in a shoreline retreat of 85 m immediately after the passage of Hurricane Otis. Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) showed that Hurricane John inundated 2385 ha, four times greater than Hurricane Otis’s flooding (567 ha). The retrofitted QGIS methodology demonstrated high reliability when compared to limited in situ local reports. Given the increased frequency of intense hurricanes, these methods and findings will be relevant in other coastal areas for monitoring and managing local communities affected by severe climate events. Full article

As dengue is an increasing global health threat, a better understanding of the global circulation dynamics and its determinants would be helpful for precise prevention and control of dengue. The dynamics of global circulation of the four dengue virus serotypes were explored utilizing genetic sequences through a network-based method. Four new circulation indicators, including local intensity, betweenness centrality, tip frequency, and persistence time, were defined. Three circulation roles, including source, hub, and destination, were proposed on the basis of new indicators. Spatial and temporal changes of the three circulation roles, along with the persistence time, were explored. Important determinants were also evaluated by machine learning models. Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam in Asia and Venezuela and Colombia in Americas were the sources for all four serotypes in different decades. Destinations were observed mostly in island regions. Over the decades, the number of regions with different circulation roles and persistence of DENV-1 increased significantly. Climate and airline factors were involved in the important determinants to circulation roles and persistence of dengue. The roles identified in the global circulation of dengue and important determinants, including climate and airline factors, provide new insights into global dynamics and are beneficial for controlling dengue. Full article

The lithological record of past climates and climate changes reveals significant potential in enhancing education and understanding of global climate changes and their impacts on contemporary societies. A relatively young geological record of Pleistocene cooling and glaciations serves as one of the most useful geo-educational tools. The present study encompasses a comprehensive review of ongoing efforts to assess and communicate the glacial geoheritage of the Pleistocene, with a detailed case study of Poland. A literature review is conducted to evaluate the extent of scientific work on inventorying and communicating the geodiversity of Pleistocene glacial and periglacial environments globally. The study demonstrates a steady increase in the number of scientific contributions focused on the evaluation and promotion of Pleistocene geoheritage, with a notable transition from the description of geosites to the establishment of geoconservation practices and educational strategies. The relative complexity of the palaeoclimatic record and the presence of glacial geodiversity features across extensive areas indicate that effective scientific communication of climate changes requires careful selection of a limited number of geodiversity elements and sediment types. In this context, the use of glacial erratic boulders and rock gardens for promotion of Pleistocene glacial geoheritage is advocated, and the significance of educational initiatives for local communities and the preservation of geocultural heritage is outlined in detail. Full article

Relict fern species, confined to microhabitats with stable historical conditions, are especially vulnerable to climate change. The Alboran Arc hosts a unique relict fern flora, including Culcita macrocarpa, Diplazium caudatum, and Pteris incompleta, and functions as a major Pleistocene refuge. This study assesses the population trends and climate sensitivity of these species in Los Alcornocales Natural Park using annual abundance time series for a decade, empirical survival projections, and principal component analysis to identify key climatic drivers. Results reveal distinct climate response clusters among populations, though intra-specific variation highlights the importance of local conditions. Climate change is already impacting population viability, especially for P. incompleta, which shows high sensitivity to rising maximum temperatures and prolonged heatwaves. Climate-driven models forecast more severe declines than empirical ones, particularly for C. macrocarpa and P. incompleta, with the latter showing a projected collapse by the mid-century. In contrast, D. caudatum exhibits moderate vulnerability. Crucially, the divergence between models underscores the impact of conservation efforts: without reinforcement and reintroduction actions, projected declines would likely be more severe. These results project a decline in the populations of the studied ferns, highlighting the urgent need to continue implementing both in situ and ex situ conservation measures. Full article

Agrarian women are at the forefront of rural livelihoods increasingly affected by the frequency and severity of climate change impacts. However, their household livelihood resilience (HLR) remains limited due to gender-blind policies, scarce sex-disaggregated data, and inadequate consideration of gender-specific needs in resilience-building efforts. Grounded in participatory feminist research, this study employed a multi-method qualitative approach, including semi-structured interviews and oral history narratives, with 60 women in two climate-vulnerable provinces. Data were analyzed through thematic coding, CATWOE (Customers, Actors, Transformation, Worldview, Owners, Environmental Constraints) analysis, and descriptive statistics. The findings identify nine major climate-related events disrupting livelihoods and reveal a limited understanding of HLR as a long-term, transformative concept. Adaptation strategies remain short-term and focused on immediate survival. Barriers to HLR include financial constraints, limited access to agricultural resources and technology, and entrenched gender norms restricting women’s leadership and decision-making. While local governments, women’s associations, and community networks provide some support, gaps in accessibility and adequacy persist. Participants expressed the need for financial assistance, vocational training, agricultural technologies, and stronger peer networks. Strengthening HLR among agrarian women requires gender-sensitive policies, investment in local support systems, and community-led initiatives. Empowering agrarian women as agents of change is critical for fostering resilient rural livelihoods and achieving inclusive, sustainable development. Full article

Landslides are among the most hazardous natural phenomena affecting Greater Abidjan, causing significant economic and social damage. Strategic planning supported by geographic information systems (GIS) can help mitigate potential losses and enhance disaster resilience. This study evaluates landslide susceptibility using logistic regression and frequency ratio models. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising 54 mapped landslide scarps collected from June 2015 to July 2023, along with 16 thematic predictor variables, including altitude, slope, aspect, profile curvature, plan curvature, drainage area, distance to the drainage network, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and an urban-related layer. A high-resolution (5-m) digital elevation model (DEM), derived from multiple data sources, supports the spatial analysis. The landslide inventory was randomly divided into two subsets: 80% for model calibration and 20% for validation. After optimization and statistical testing, the selected thematic layers were integrated to produce a susceptibility map. The results indicate that 6.3% (0.7 km²) of the study area is classified as very highly susceptible. The proportion of the sample (61.2%) in this class had a frequency ratio estimated to be 20.2. Among the predictive indicators, altitude, slope, SE, S, NW, and NDVI were found to have a positive impact on landslide occurrence. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), demonstrating strong predictive capability. These findings can support informed land-use planning and risk reduction strategies in urban areas. Furthermore, the prediction model should be communicated to and understood by local authorities to facilitate disaster management. The cost function was adopted as a novel approach to delineate hazardous zones. Considering the landslide inventory period, the increasing hazard due to climate change, and the intensification of human activities, a reasoned choice of sample size was made. This informed decision enabled the production of an updated prediction map. Optimal thresholds were then derived to classify areas into high- and low-susceptibility categories. The prediction map will be useful to planners in helping them make decisions and implement protective measures. Full article

The right to development, an inherent human right for all, emphasizes that all individuals and communities have the right to participate in, contribute to, and benefit from development that ensures the full realization of human rights. In Kenya, where a significant portion of the population faces poverty and vulnerability to climate change, access to rights-based needs such as clean water, healthcare, and education still remains a critical challenge. This study explored the implementation of a Human Rights-Based approach to community development through a Public–Private Development Partnership model (PPDP), with a focus on alleviating poverty and improving access to rights-based services at the community level in Narok and Nakuru counties. The research aimed to identify critical success factors for scaling the PPDP model and explore its effects on socio-economic empowerment. The study employed a mixed-methods approach for data collection, using questionnaires to obtain quantitative data, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews with community members, local leaders, and stakeholders to gather qualitative data. We cleaned and analyzed all our data in R (version 4.4.3) and used the chi-square to establish the significance of differences between areas where the PPDP model was implemented and control areas where it was not. Results reveal that communities with the PPDP model experienced statistically significant improvements in employment, income levels, and access to rights-based services compared to control areas. The outcomes underscore the potential of the PPDP model to address inclusive and sustainable development. This study therefore proposes a scalable pathway beginning with access to rights-based needs, followed by improved service delivery, and culminating in economic empowerment. These findings offer valuable insights for governments, development practitioners, investment agencies, and researchers seeking community-driven developments in similar socio-economic contexts across Africa. For the first time, it can be adopted in the design and implementation of development projects in rural and local communities across Africa bringing into focus the need to integrate rights-based needs at the core of the project. Full article

To date, few studies have been published for cities in Germany that take into account climate change and changing hydrologic patterns due to increases in building density. This study investigates the efficiency of LID for past and future climate in the polycentric agglomeration area Frankfurt, Main (Central Germany) using observed and projected climate (model) data for a standard reference period (1961–1990) and a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) as well as a climate protection scenario (RCP 2.6), under 40 to 75 percent building density. LID elements included green roofs, permeable pavement and bioretention cells. SWMM₅ was used as model for simulation purposes. A holistic evaluation of simulation results showed that effectiveness increases incrementally with LID implementation percentage and inverse to building density if implemented onto at least 50 percent of available impervious area. Building density had a higher adverse effect on LID efficiency than climate change. The results contribute to the understanding of localized effects of climate change and the implementation of adaption strategies to that end. The results of this study can be helpful for the scientific community regarding future investigations of LID implementation efficiency in dense residential areas and used by local governments to provide suggestions for urban water balance revaluation. Full article

Background: Population persistence for organisms to survive in a world with a rapidly changing climate will require either dispersal to suitable areas, evolutionary adaptation to altered conditions and/or sufficient phenotypic plasticity to withstand it. Given the slow growth and geographically isolated populations of many tree species, there is a high likelihood of local adaption or the acclimation of functional traits in these populations across the UK. Objectives: Given the slow growth and often isolated populations of Tilia cordata (lime tree), we hypothesised that there is a high likelihood of local adaptation or the acclimation of metabolic traits in these populations across the UK. Our aim was to test if the functional metabolomic traits of Tilia cordata (lime tree), collected in situ from natural populations, varied within and between populations and to compare this to neutral allele variation in the population. Methods: We used a metabolic fingerprinting approach to obtain a snapshot of the metabolic status of leaves collected from T. cordata from six populations across the UK. Environmental metadata, longer-term functional traits (specific leaf area) and neutral allelic variation in the population were also measured to assess the plastic capacity and local adaptation of the species. Results: The metabolic fingerprints derived from leaf material collected and fixed in situ from individuals in six populations of T. cordata across its UK range were similar, despite contrasting environmental conditions during sampling. Neutral allele frequencies showed almost no significant group structure, indicating low differentiation between populations. The specific leaf area did vary between sites. Conclusions: The low metabolic variation between UK populations of T. cordata despite contrasting environmental conditions during sampling indicates high levels of phenotypic plasticity. Full article

Urban air pollution remains a significant environmental and public health issue, especially in European coastal cities such as Klaipėda. However, there is still a lack of local-scale knowledge on how land use structure influences pollutant distribution, highlighting the need to address this gap. This study addresses this by examining the spatial distribution of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations in Klaipėda’s seaport city and several inland and coastal resort towns in Lithuania. The research specifically asks how different land cover types and demographic factors affect NO₂ variability and population exposure risk. Data were collected using passive sampling methods and analyzed within a GIS environment. The results revealed clear air quality differences between industrial/port zones and greener resort areas, confirmed by statistically significant associations between land cover types and pollutant levels. Based on these findings, a Land Use Pollution Pressure index (LUPP) and its population-weighted variant (PLUPP) were developed to capture demographic sensitivity. These indices provide a practical decision-support tool for sustainable urban planning, enabling the assessment of pollution risks and the forecasting of air quality changes under different land use scenarios, while contributing to local climate adaptation and urban environmental governance. Full article

The aim of this research is to identify policy and practice interventions that support a just transition towards resilient practices for resource-dependent communities. We focus on Thai Nguyen and Phu Tho, two provinces in the Northern Midlands and Mountains of Vietnam. The region is reliant on agriculture but is assessed as highly vulnerable to climate change. We surveyed 105 farming households. A Likert-type questionnaire asked respondents to self-assess their experiences of weather extremes and of changes they had made to their farming practices. Our results show that for both Thai Nguyen and Phu Tho, farmers see the effects of climate change on their crops. Respondents in Thai Nguyen were more likely to report technically driven adaptation and engagement with extension services. Respondents in Pho Tho were more likely to continue traditional practices. For both, use of traditional knowledge and practices was related to taking measures to adapt to climate change. Our main conclusion is that at least three actions could support a just transition to resilient livelihoods. First is incorporating natural science and traditional knowledge into decision-making for just transitions. Second is considering long-term implications of interventions that appear to support livelihoods in the short term. Third is tailoring messaging and engagement strategies to the requirements of the most vulnerable people. The main message of this study is that a just transition for resource-dependent communities will inevitably be context-specific. Even in centralized and authoritarian contexts, flexibility to adapt top-down policies to locals’ own experiences of changing climates is needed. Full article

The Mediterranean region, identified by scientists as a ‘climate hot spot’, is experiencing warmer and drier conditions, along with an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. One such extreme phenomena is droughts. The recent wildfires in this region are a concerning consequence of this phenomenon, causing severe environmental damage and transforming natural landscapes. However, droughts involve a two-way interaction: On the one hand, climate change and various human activities, such as urbanization and deforestation, influence the development and severity of droughts. On the other hand, droughts have a significant impact on various sectors, including ecology, agriculture, and the local economy. This study investigates drought dynamics in four Mediterranean countries, Greece, France, Italy, and Spain, each of which has experienced severe wildfire events in recent years. Using satellite-based Earth observation data, we monitored drought conditions across these regions over a five-year period that includes the dates of major wildfires. To support this analysis, we derived and assessed key indices: the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Normalized Difference Drought Index (NDDI). High-resolution satellite imagery processed within the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform enabled the spatial and temporal analysis of these indicators. Our findings reveal that, in all four study areas, peak drought conditions, as reflected in elevated NDDI values, were observed in the months leading up to wildfire outbreaks. This pattern underscores the potential of satellite-derived indices for identifying regional drought patterns and providing early signals of heightened fire risk. The application of GEE offered significant advantages, as it allows efficient handling of long-term and large-scale datasets and facilitates comprehensive spatial analysis. Our methodological framework contributes to a deeper understanding of regional drought variability and its links to extreme events; thus, it could be a valuable tool for supporting the development of adaptive management strategies. Ultimately, such approaches are vital for enhancing resilience, guiding water resource planning, and implementing early warning systems in fire-prone Mediterranean landscapes. Full article

Climate change is jeopardizing global food security, with at least 713 million people facing hunger. To face this challenge, legumes as common beans could offer a nature-based solution, sourcing nutrients and dietary fiber, especially for rural communities in Latin America and Africa. However, since common beans are generally heat and drought susceptible, it is imperative to speed up their molecular introgressive adaptive breeding so that they can be cultivated in regions affected by extreme weather. Therefore, this study aimed to couple an advanced panel of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) × tolerant Tepary bean (P. acutifolius A. Gray) interspecific lines with Bayesian regression algorithms to forecast adaptation to the humid and dry sub-regions at the Caribbean coast of Colombia, where the common bean typically exhibits maladaptation to extreme heat waves. A total of 87 advanced lines with hybrid ancestries were successfully bred, surpassing the interspecific incompatibilities. This hybrid panel was genotyped by sequencing (GBS), leading to the discovery of 15,645 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. Three yield components (yield per plant, and number of seeds and pods) and two biomass variables (vegetative and seed biomass) were recorded for each genotype and inputted in several Bayesian regression models to identify the top genotypes with the best genetic breeding values across three localities on the Colombian coast. We comparatively analyzed several regression approaches, and the model with the best performance for all traits and localities was BayesC. Also, we compared the utilization of all markers and only those determined as associated by a priori genome-wide association studies (GWAS) models. Better prediction ability with the complete SNP set was indicative of missing heritability as part of GWAS reconstructions. Furthermore, optimal SNP sets per trait and locality were determined as per the top 500 most explicative markers according to their β regression effects. These 500 SNPs, on average, overlapped in 5.24% across localities, which reinforced the locality-dependent nature of polygenic adaptation. Finally, we retrieved the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) and selected the top 10 genotypes for each trait and locality as part of a recommendation scheme targeting narrow adaption in the Caribbean. After validation in field conditions and for screening stability, candidate genotypes and SNPs may be used in further introgressive breeding cycles for adaptation. Full article

While rainfall occurs for several reasons, climate change and urbanization influence its frequency and geographical disparities. Although recent research suggests that urbanization may lead to increased rainfall, insights into how urbanization can trigger rainfall remain limited. We selected the Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex, which has minimal orographic and coastal influences, to analyze the urban impact on rainfall. DFW was divided into 256 equal grids (10 km × 10 km) and grouped into four clusters using K-means clustering based on the urbanization ratio. Using Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimator data (with a spatial resolution of 4 km), we examined rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile (i.e., extreme rainfall) on low synoptic days to highlight localized effects. The urban heat island (UHI) effect was estimated based on the average temperature difference between the urban core and the other three non-urban clusters. Multiple rainfall events were monitored on an hourly basis. Potential linkages between urbanization, the UHI, extreme rainfall, wind speed, wind direction, convective inhibition, and convective available potential energy were evaluated. An intense UHI within the DFW area triggered a tornado, resulting in maximum rainfall in the urban core area under high wind speeds and a dominant wind direction. Our findings further clarify the role of urbanization in generating extreme rainfall events, which is essential for developing better policies for urban planning in response to intensifying extreme events due to climate change. Full article