Search Results (11)

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the intricate nature of disease dynamics, extending beyond transmission patterns to the complex interplay of intervention strategies. In the post-COVID-19 era, reinfection has emerged as a critical factor, shaping how we model disease progression, evaluate immunity, and assess the effectiveness of public health interventions. This research uniquely explores the varied efficacy of existing vaccines and the pivotal role of vaccination timing in the context of COVID-19. Departing from conventional modeling, we introduce two models that account for the impact of vaccines on infections, reinfections, and deaths. We estimate model parameters under the Bayesian framework, specifically utilizing the Metropolis–Hastings Sampler. We conduct data-driven scenario analyses for the State of Qatar, quantifying the potential duration during which the healthcare system could have been overwhelmed by an influx of new COVID-19 cases surpassing available hospital beds. Additionally, the research explores similarities in predictive probability distributions of cumulative infections, reinfections, and deaths, employing the Hellinger distance metric. Comparative analysis, utilizing the Bayes factor, underscores the plausibility of a model assuming a different susceptibility rate to reinfection, as opposed to assuming the same susceptibility rate for both infections and reinfections. Results highlight the adverse outcomes associated with delayed vaccination, emphasizing the efficacy of early vaccination in reducing infections, reinfections, and deaths. Our research advocates for prioritization of early vaccination as a key strategy in effectively combating future pandemics, thereby providing vital insights for evidence-based public health interventions. Full article

The weathered bedrock aquifer in the Jurassic coalfield of northern Shaanxi Province is a direct water-bearing aquifer, and accurately predicting its water-bearing properties is essential for preventing and controlling water hazards in mining operations. Traditional Bayes discriminant methods have limitations in predicting water-bearing properties, particularly because not all primary factors influencing water-bearing properties meet the criteria for multivariate normal distribution. In this paper, the southern flank of the Ningtiaota Minefield is taken as an example, with the weathered bedrock aquifer as the research object. Six main controlling factors are selected: weathered bedrock thickness, core recovery rate, degree of weathering, lithological combination, elevation of the weathered bedrock surface, and sand-to-base ratio. A kernel density estimator–Bayes (KDE–Bayes) discriminant method for predicting water-bearing properties is presented. The kernel density estimation was carried out on the three main controlling factors that do not conform to a normal distribution—weathered bedrock thickness, core recovery rate, and sand-to-base ratio—and, in conjunction with other primary factors, a KDE–Bayes model was constructed for predicting the water-bearing properties in the southern flank of the Ningtiaota Minefield, based on which a detailed prediction of the water-bearing properties of the south flank of the Ningtiaota Minefield was conducted. By analyzing the actual dewatering data from the S1231 working face and past water inrush (or outburst) incidents, the feasibility and accuracy of this prediction method are demonstrated, providing valuable insights for predicting the water-bearing properties of weathered bedrock aquifers in the Ningtiaota Coal Mine and similar mining conditions. Full article

The error threshold is the cornerstone to balance the mathematical complexity and simulation speed of wind farm (WF) equivalent models, and can promote the standardization process of equivalent methodology. Due to differences in power system conditions and model evaluation standards in different countries, the form and indexes of error thresholds of WF equivalent models have not been unified yet. This paper proposes a theoretical method for quantifying the minimum risk of error threshold of WF equivalent models based on the Bayes discriminant criterion. Firstly, the Euclidean errors of WF equivalent models in different periods are quantified, and the probability density distributions of the errors are fitted by kernel density estimation. Secondly, the real-time weighted prior probability algorithm is used to obtain the prior probability of a valid WF equivalent model, and the different losses caused by the missed judgment and misjudgment of the model validity to power systems are taken into account. Thirdly, the minimum risk quantification model of error threshold is established based on the Bayes discriminant criterion, and the feasibility of the proposed method is verified by an actual WF with numerical examples. Compared with the existing error thresholds, the proposed error threshold can more quickly and accurately determine the validity of WF equivalent models. Full article

An essential function of dockless bikesharing (DBs) is to serve as a feeder mode to the metro. Optimizing the integration between DBs and the metro is of great significance for improving metro travel efficiency. However, the research on DBs–Metro Integration Cycling (DBsMIC) faces challenges such as insufficient methods for identification and low identification accuracy. In this study, we improve the enhanced two-step floating catchment area and incorporate Bayes’ rule to propose a method to identify DBsMIC by considering the parameters of time, distance, environmental competition ratio, and POI service power index. Furthermore, an empirical study is conducted in Shenzhen to verify the higher accuracy of the proposed method. Their spatiotemporal behavior pattern is also explored with the help of the kernel density estimation method. The research results will help managers improve the effective redistribution of bicycles, promote the coupling efficiency between transportation modes, and achieve sustainable development of urban transportation. Full article

A new nonparametric test of equality of two densities is investigated. The test statistic is an average of log-Bayes factors, each of which is constructed from a kernel density estimate. Prior densities for the bandwidths of the kernel estimates are required, and it is shown how to choose priors so that the log-Bayes factors can be calculated exactly. Critical values of the test statistic are determined by a permutation distribution, conditional on the data. An attractive property of the methodology is that a critical value of 0 leads to a test for which both type I and II error probabilities tend to 0 as sample sizes tend to ∞. Existing results on Kullback–Leibler loss of kernel estimates are crucial to obtaining these asymptotic results, and also imply that the proposed test works best with heavy-tailed kernels. Finite sample characteristics of the test are studied via simulation, and extensions to multivariate data are straightforward, as illustrated by an application to bivariate connectionist data. Full article

The estimation of user experience in a wireless network has always been a research hotspot, especially for the realization of network automation. In order to solve the problem of user experience estimation in wireless networks, we propose a two-step optimization method for the selection of the kernel function and bandwidth in a naive Bayesian classifier based on kernel density estimation. This optimization method can effectively improve the accuracy of estimation. At present, research on user experience estimation in wireless networks does not include an in-depth analysis of the reasons for the decline of user experience. We established a scheme integrating user experience prediction and network fault diagnosis. Key performance indicator (KPI) data collected from an actual network were divided into five categories, which were used to estimate user experience. The results of these five estimates were counted through the voting mechanism, and the final estimation results could be obtained. At the same time, this voting mechanism can also feed back to us which KPIs lead to the reduction of user experience. In addition, this paper also puts forward the evaluation standard of the multi-service perception capability of cell-level wireless networks. We summarize the user experience estimation for three main services in a cell to obtain a cell-level user experience evaluation. The results showed that the proposed method can accurately estimate user experience and diagnosis abnormal values in a timely manner. This method can improve the efficiency of network management. Full article

Bayesian methods were studied in this paper using deep neural networks. We are interested in variational autoencoders, where an encoder approaches the true posterior and the decoder approaches the direct probability. Specifically, we applied these autoencoders for unsteady and compressible fluid flows in aircraft engines. We used inferential methods to compute a sharp approximation of the posterior probability of these parameters with the transient dynamics of the training velocity fields and to generate plausible velocity fields. An important application is the initialization of transient numerical simulations of unsteady fluid flows and large eddy simulations in fluid dynamics. It is known by the Bayes theorem that the choice of the prior distribution is very important for the computation of the posterior probability, proportional to the product of likelihood with the prior probability. Hence, we propose a new inference model based on a new prior defined by the density estimate with the realizations of the kernel proper orthogonal decomposition coefficients of the available training data. We numerically show that this inference model improves the results obtained with the usual standard normal prior distribution. This inference model was constructed using a new algorithm improving the convergence of the parametric optimization of the encoder probability distribution that approaches the posterior. This latter probability distribution is data-targeted, similarly to the prior distribution. This new generative approach can also be seen as an improvement of the kernel proper orthogonal decomposition method, for which we do not usually have a robust technique for expressing the pre-image in the input physical space of the stochastic reduced field in the feature high-dimensional space with a kernel inner product. Full article

This paper develops an approach for two-day-ahead global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecast using the naïve Bayes classifier (NB). Based on publicly available weather forecasting information about temperature, relative humidity, dew point, and sky coverage, they are used as a training set in NB classification with hourly resolution. To reduce having two times with the same GHI affecting the classification in the proposed model, two characteristics of the GHI under different weather conditions are considered: The daylight variation and diurnal cycle. More importantly, NB’s independence assumption-based on simple Bayes’ theorem makes the process speed faster and less constrained than other classification algorithms. The forecast performance is verified with several error criteria from established analytical practices using relevant statistics. Moreover, commonly used forecasting error criteria are discussed. This NB model shows improved results regarding error criteria and a good agreement for a clear day that satisfies the guideline for the evaluation of two-days-ahead forecast, when compared with other recent techniques. Full article

Recent work has focused on the problem of nonparametric estimation of information divergence functionals between two continuous random variables. Many existing approaches require either restrictive assumptions about the density support set or difficult calculations at the support set boundary which must be known a priori. The mean squared error (MSE) convergence rate of a leave-one-out kernel density plug-in divergence functional estimator for general bounded density support sets is derived where knowledge of the support boundary, and therefore, the boundary correction is not required. The theory of optimally weighted ensemble estimation is generalized to derive a divergence estimator that achieves the parametric rate when the densities are sufficiently smooth. Guidelines for the tuning parameter selection and the asymptotic distribution of this estimator are provided. Based on the theory, an empirical estimator of Rényi-$\alpha$ divergence is proposed that greatly outperforms the standard kernel density plug-in estimator in terms of mean squared error, especially in high dimensions. The estimator is shown to be robust to the choice of tuning parameters. We show extensive simulation results that verify the theoretical results of our paper. Finally, we apply the proposed estimator to estimate the bounds on the Bayes error rate of a cell classification problem. Full article

This study introduced entropy measures to analyze the heart sound signals of people with and without pulmonary hypertension (PH). The lead II Electrocardiography (ECG) signal and heart sound signal were simultaneously collected from 104 subjects aged between 22 and 89. Fifty of them were PH patients and 54 were healthy. Eleven heart sound features were extracted and three entropy measures, namely sample entropy (SampEn), fuzzy entropy (FuzzyEn) and fuzzy measure entropy (FuzzyMEn) of the feature sequences were calculated. The Mann–Whitney U test was used to study the feature significance between the patient and health group. To reduce the age confounding factor, nine entropy measures were selected based on correlation analysis. Further, the probability density function (pdf) of a single selected entropy measure of both groups was constructed by kernel density estimation, as well as the joint pdf of any two and multiple selected entropy measures. Therefore, a patient or a healthy subject can be classified using his/her entropy measure probability based on Bayes’ decision rule. The results showed that the best identification performance by a single selected measure had sensitivity of 0.720 and specificity of 0.648. The identification performance was improved to 0.680, 0.796 by the joint pdf of two measures and 0.740, 0.870 by the joint pdf of multiple measures. This study showed that entropy measures could be a powerful tool for early screening of PH patients. Full article

The prediction of suspect location enables proactive experiences for crime investigations and offers essential intelligence for crime prevention. However, existing studies have failed to capture the complex social location transition patterns of suspects and lack the capacity to address the issue of data sparsity. This paper proposes a novel location prediction model called CMoB (Crime Multi-order Bayes model) based on the spatiotemporal semantics to enhance the prediction performance. In particular, the model groups suspects with similar spatiotemporal semantics as one target suspect. Then, their mobility data are applied to estimate Markov transition probabilities of unobserved locations based on a KDE (kernel density estimating) smoothing method. Finally, by integrating the total transition probabilities, which are derived from the multi-order property of the Markov transition matrix, into a Bayesian-based formula, it is able to realize multi-step location prediction for the individual suspect. Experiments with the mobility dataset covering 210 suspects and their 18,754 location records from January to June 2012 in Wuhan City show that the proposed CMoB model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms for suspect location prediction in the context of data sparsity. Full article