Search Results (30)

Accurate modeling of ionospheric variability is critical for space weather forecasting and GNSS applications. While machine learning approaches have shown promise, progress is hindered by the absence of standardized benchmarking practices and narrow test periods. In this paper, we take the first step toward fostering rigorous and reproducible evaluation of AI models for ionospheric forecasting by introducing IonoBench: a benchmarking framework that employs a stratified data split, balancing solar intensity across subsets while preserving 16 high-impact geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ $-100$ nT) for targeted stress testing. Using this framework, we benchmark a field-specific model (DCNN) against state-of-the-art spatiotemporal architectures (SwinLSTM and SimVPv2) using the climatological IRI 2020 model as a baseline reference. DCNN, though effective under quiet conditions, exhibits significant degradation during elevated solar and storm activity. SimVPv2 consistently provides the best performance, with superior evaluation metrics and stable error distributions. Compared to the C1PG baseline (the CODE 1-day forecast product), SimVPv2 achieves a notable RMSE reduction up to $32.1\%$ across various subsets under diverse solar conditions. The reported results highlight the value of cross-domain architectural transfer and comprehensive evaluation frameworks in ionospheric modeling. With IonoBench, we aim to provide an open-source foundation for reproducible comparisons, supporting more meticulous model evaluation and helping to bridge the gap between ionospheric research and modern spatiotemporal deep learning. Full article

Focusing on major earthquakes (EQs; MS ≥ 7) in Western China, this study primarily analyzes the fluctuation in Atmospheric Chemical Potential (ACP) before and after the Wenchuan, Yushu, Lushan, Jiuzhaigou, and Maduo EQs via Climatological Analysis of Seismic Precursors Identification (CAPRI). The distribution of vertical ACP revealed distinct altitude-dependent characteristics. The ACP at lower atmospheric layers (100–2000 m) exhibited a high correlation, and this correlation decreased with increasing altitude. Anomalies were detected within one month prior to each of the five EQs studied, with the majority occurring 14 to 30 days before the events, followed by a few additional anomalies. The spatial distribution of anomalies is consistent with the distribution of fault zones, with noticeable fluctuation in surrounding areas. The ACP at an altitude of 200 m gave a balance between sensitivity to seismic signals and minimal surface interference and proved to be optimal for EQ monitoring in Western China. The results offer a significant reference for remote sensing studies related to EQ monitoring and the Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, thereby advancing our understanding of pre-seismic atmospheric variations in Western China. Full article

Sporadic E (Es) layers are irregular structures that occur at the E-layer height of the ionosphere, significantly affecting the reliability and accuracy of wireless communications, navigation, and satellite remote sensing. This study utilized the S4max data collected from the Constellation Observing System for the Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) occultation observations from 2007 to 2016 to identify the Es layer and investigate its climatological variations. The Horizontal Wind Field model (HWM14), in conjunction with the International Geomagnetic Reference Field model (IGRF13), is used to calculate vertical ion convergence (VIC) and analyze its correlation to the Es layers. The results of this study showed that the occurrence of Es has apparent hemispheric asymmetry. In the mid- and low latitudes, Es layer activity is more intense in the summer hemispheres, with center peak altitudes of around 105 km. The summer hemisphere exhibits a semi-diurnal periodic pattern, whereas the winter hemisphere shows a weakened diurnal variation. Simulation studies indicate that VIC induced by neutral wind shear contributes to the asymmetry in Es layer activities observed between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and the zonal wind shear plays a more critical role than the meridional wind one. Full article

In this study, we analysed lithospheric, atmospheric, and top-side ionospheric magnetic field data six months before the three earthquake doublets occurred in the last ten years around the Arabian tectonic plate. They occurred in 2014, close to Dehloran (Iran), in 2018, offshore Kilmia (Yemen) and in 2022, close to Bandar-e Lengeh (Iran). For all the cases, we considered the equivalent event in terms of total released energy and mean epicentral coordinates. The lithosphere was investigated by calculating the cumulative Benioff strain with the USGS earthquake catalogue. Several atmospheric parameters (aerosol, SO₂, CO, surface air temperature, surface latent heat flux humidity, and dimethyl sulphide) have been monitored using the homogeneous data from the MERRA-2 climatological archive. We used the three-satellite Swarm constellation for magnetic data, analysing the residuals after removing a geomagnetic model. The analysis of the three geo-layers depicted an interesting chain of lithosphere, atmosphere, and ionosphere anomalies, suggesting a geophysical coupling before the Dehloran (Iran) 2014 earthquake. In addition, we identified interesting seismic accelerations that preceded the last 20 days, the Kilmia (Yemen) 2018 and Bandar-e Lengeh (Iran) 2022 earthquake doublets. Other possible interactions between the geolayers have been observed, and this underlines the importance of a multiparametric approach to properly understand a geophysical complex topic as the preparation phase of an earthquake. Full article

The preparation phase of earthquakes (EQs) has been investigated by making full use of multi-parameter and multi-layer observations of EQ precursors, in order to better understand the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) process. For this purpose, we chose a specific target EQ, the huge EQ of Fukushima-ken-oki EQ on 13 February 2021 (magnitude M_j = 7.3). We initially reported on EQ precursors in different physical parameters not only of the lithosphere, but also of the atmosphere and ionosphere (Hayakawa et al. followed by Akhoondzadeh et al. and Draz et al., both based on satellite observations). Our first two papers dealt with seven electromagnetic precursors in the three layers (with emphasis on our own ground-based observations in the atmosphere and lower ionosphere), while the second paper dealt with Swarm satellite observations of magnetic field, electron density, and GPS TEC in the ionosphere, and the third paper dealt only with climatological parameters on and above the Earth’s surface (together with GPS TEC). We have extensively reviewed all of these results, and have coordinated the temporal evolutions of various physical parameters relevant to the LAIC system; we have sought to understand which hypothesis is more plausible in explaining the LAIC process. Then, we came to a conclusion that two possible LAIC channels seem to exist simultaneously for this EQ: a fast channel (nearly simultaneous responses on the ground and ionosphere), and a slow channel (or diffusion-type), with a time delay of a few to several days, in which the agent effects in the lithosphere and lowest atmosphere seem to propagate up to the ionosphere with a definite time delay. Finally, we have suggested some research directions for the future elucidation of LAIC channels, and also made some comments on an early EQ warning system. Full article

The FormoSat-7/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate II (FS7/COSMIC2) program has acquired over three hundred thousand equatorial plasma bubble (EPB) observations from 2019 to 2023 in the equatorial and near low-latitude regions. The huge FS7/COSMIC2 database offers an opportunity to perform statistical inspections of the proposed hypothesis on seasonal versus longitudinal variability of EPB occurrence rates relevant to the Rayleigh–Taylor (R-T) instability. The detected EPBs are distributed along the magnetic equator with a half width of ~20° in geomagnetic latitude. The obtained EPB occurrence rates in local time (LT) rose rapidly after sunsets, and could be deconstructed into two overlapped Gaussian distributions resembling a major peak around 23:00 LT and a minor peak around 20:20 LT. The two groups of Gaussian-distributed EPBs in LT were classified as first- and second-type EPBs, which could be caused by different mechanisms such as sporadic E (Es) instabilities and pre-reversal enhancement (PRE) fields. The obtained seasonal–longitudinal distributions of both types of EPBs presented two diffused traces of high occurrence rates, which happened near the days and longitudes when and where the angle between the two lines of magnetic declination and solar terminator at the magnetic equator was equal to zero. Finally, we analyzed the climatological and seasonal–longitudinal variability of EPB occurrences and compared the results with the physical R-T instability model controlled by Es instabilities and/or PRE fields. Full article

This paper presents climatological features of the longitudinal structures WN4, WN3, and WN2 and their drivers observed in the lower thermospheric temperatures and in the ionospheric TEC. For this purpose, two long-term data sets are utilized: the satellite SABER/TIMED temperature measurements, and the global TEC maps generated with the NASA JPL for the interval of 2002–2022. As the main drivers of the longitudinal structures are mainly nonmigrating tides, this study first investigates the climatology of those nonmigrating tides, which are the main contributors of the considered longitudinal structures; these are nonmigrating diurnal DE3, DE2, and DW2, and semidiurnal SW4 and SE2 tides. The climatology of WN4, WN3, and WN2 structures in the lower thermosphere reveals that WN4 is the strongest one with a magnitude of ~20 K observed at 10° S in August, followed by WN2 with ~13.9 K at 10° S in February, and the weakest is WN3 with ~12.4 K observed over the equator in July. In the ionosphere, WN3 is the strongest structure with a magnitude of 5.9 TECU located at −30° modip latitude in October, followed by WN2 with 5.4 TECU at 30 modip in March, and the last is WN4 with 3.7 TECU at −30 modip in August. Both the climatology of the WSA and the features of its drivers are investigated as well. Full article

On 14 August 2021, an earthquake of moment magnitude Mw = 7.2 hit Haiti Island. Unfortunately, it caused several victims and economic damage to the island. While predicting earthquakes is still challenging and has not yet been achieved, studying the preparation phase of such catastrophic events may improve our knowledge and pose the basis for future predictions of earthquakes. In this paper, the six months that preceded the Haiti earthquake are analysed, investigating the lithosphere (by seismic catalogue), atmosphere (by climatological archive) and ionosphere by China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES-01) and Swarm satellites, as well as Total Electron Content (TEC) data. Several anomalies have been extracted from the analysed parameters using different techniques. A comparison, especially between the different layers, could increase or decrease the probability that a specific group of anomalies may be (or not) related to the preparation phase of the Haiti 2021 earthquake. In particular, two possible coupling processes have been revealed as part of the earthquake preparation phase. The first one was only between the lithosphere and the atmosphere about 130 days before the mainshock. The second one was about two months before the seismic event. It is exciting to underline that all the geo-layers show anomalies at that time: seismic accumulation of stress showed an increase of its slope, several atmospheric quantities underline abnormal atmospheric conditions, and CSES-01 Ne depicted two consecutive days of ionospheric electron density. This suggested a possible coupling of lithosphere–atmosphere and ionosphere as a sign of the increased stress, i.e., the impending earthquake. Full article

On 19 September 2021, La Palma volcano (Canarias Archipelagos) started an eruption that persisted until 13 December 2021. Despite the Volcano Explosive Index (VEI) being estimated equal to 3, corresponding to not so powerful eruption, the long eruption activity posed much scientific interest in this natural hazard event. In this paper, we searched for possible effects of this eruption on the atmosphere and ionosphere, investigating the climatological archive and Swarm magnetic satellite data. In particular, we explored Aerosol, Sulphur Dioxide and Carbon Monoxide concentrations in the atmosphere identifying both the direct emissions from the volcano as well as the plume that drifted toward West-South-West and was reinforced during the eruption period. The vertical profile of temperature from the Saber satellite was analysed to search for the possible presence of acoustic gravity waves induced by volcanic activity. Compared with the year before without eruption in the areas, a lot of Saber profiles present an Energy Potential very much higher than the previous year, proposing the presence of Acoustic Gravity Waves (AGW) induced by volcano eruption activity. We also identified Swarm magnetic disturbances on the day of the eruption and in November. The mechanism of coupling could be different for the latter one, as there is no evidence for AGW. They may be due to a more complex of physical and chemical alterations that propagate from the lower atmosphere to the upper one into the ionosphere. Full article

The ratio of the total electron content (TEC) to the F2-layer peak electron density (NmF2) is known as the ionospheric equivalent slab thickness (EST, also known as τ), and it is a crucial indicator of the ionosphere. Using TEC and NmF2 data from the years 2010 to 2017, this work conducts a comprehensive statistical analysis of the ionospheric slab thickness in Beijing, which is in the midlatitude of East Asia. The outcomes show that the τ have different diurnal variations at different seasons for high/low-solar-activity years. On the whole, daytime τ significantly greater than nighttime τ in summer, and it is the opposite for the τ in winter regardless of the solar cycle, whereas the τ during equinox shows different morphology for high/low-solar-activity years. Specifically, daytime τ is larger than nighttime τ during equinox in years of high-solar activity, while the opposite situation applies for the τ during equinox in years of low-solar activity. Moreover, the pre-sunrise and post-sunset peaks are most pronounced during winter for low-solar-activity years. In summer, there is a great increase in τ during the morning hours when compared with other seasons. Furthermore, the τ decreases with the solar activity during nighttime, whereas it seems there is no correlation between daytime τ and solar activity. This paper explained the primary diurnal variations in τ across different seasons during high-/low-solar-activity years by analyzing relative fluctuations of TEC and NmF2 throughout the corresponding period. In addition, based on the disturbance index (DI), which is calculated by instantaneous τ and its corresponding median, this paper found that the storm-time τ might increase when compared with its median value during the daytime, while it may both increase and decrease during the nighttime, especially around dawn and dusk hours. To further analyze the physical mechanism, an example on 2 October 2013 is also presented. The results indicate that the positive disturbance of τ during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm might be caused by the prompt penetration electric field and neutral wind during the storm, and the τ increases during the early recovery phase might be due to the disturbance dynamo electric field as well as the neutral wind during the storm. Moreover, there is a negative disturbance of τ in the recovery phase during the most disturbed sunrise hours, and it might be due to the electric field reversal, neutral wind or other factors during this period. This paper notes the differences of τ in midlatitude between different longitudinal sectors from the related climatology and storm-time behavior, as it would be helpful to improve the current understanding of τ at midlatitudes in East Asia. Full article

Positioning error components related to tropospheric and ionospheric delays are caused by the atmosphere in positioning determined by global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). Depending on the user’s requirements, the position error caused by tropospheric influences, which is commonly referred to as zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD), must be estimated during position determination or determined later by external tropospheric corrections. In this study, a new approach was adopted based on the reduction of residual tropospheric error (RTE), i.e., the unmodeled part of the tropospheric error that remains included in the total geodetic position error, along with other unmodeled systematic and random errors. The study was performed based on Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) positioning solutions and accompanying meteorological parameters in a defined and harmonized temporal-spatial frame of three locations in the Republic of Croatia. A multidisciplinary approach-based analysis from a navigational science aspect was applied. The residual amount of satellite positioning signal tropospheric delay was quantitatively reduced by employing statistical analysis methods. The result of statistical regression is a model which correlates surface meteorological parameters with RTE. Considering the input data, the model has a regional character, and it is based on the Saastamoinen model of zenith tropospheric delay. The verification results show that the model reduces the RTE and thus increases the geodetic accuracy of the observed GNSS stations (with horizontal components of position accuracy of up to 3.8% and vertical components of position of up to 4.37%, respectively). To obtain these results, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was used as the fundamental parameter for position accuracy evaluation. Although developed based on GLONASS data, the proposed model also shows a considerable degree of success in the verification of geodetic positions based on Global Positioning System (GPS). The purpose of the research, and one of its scientific contributions, is that the proposed method can be used to quantitatively monitor the dynamics of changes in deviations of X, Y, and Z coordinate values along coordinate axes. The results show that there is a distinct interdependence of the dynamics of Y and Z coordinate changes (with almost mirror symmetry), which has not been investigated and published so far. The resultant position of the coordinates is created by deviations of the coordinates along the Y and Z axes—in the vertical plane of space, the deviations of the coordinate X (horizontal plane) are mostly uniform and independent of deviations along the Y and Z axes. The proposed model shows the realized state of the statistical position equilibrium of the selected GNSS stations which were observed using RTE values. Although of regional character, the model is suitable for application in larger areas with similar climatological profiles and for users who do not require a maximum level of geodetic accuracy achieved by using Satellite-Based Augmentation Systems (SBAS) or other more advanced, time-consuming, and equipment-consuming positioning techniques. Full article

The OI135.6 nm radiation intensity and the associated change with solar activity are very complex, and this is particularly the case during November 2020. In this paper, we investigated the OI135.6 nm radiation intensity in the low-latitude ionosphere during a quiet geomagnetic period. The Ionospheric Photometer (IPM) instrument onboard the FY-3(D) meteorological satellite was employed to measure the OI135.6 nm night airglow at 02:00 LT (local time) and its response to the solar activity. The results showed there is a statistically significant correlation between the intensity of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) and solar activity after midnight. The EIA at 02:00 LT and before midnight shared the same climatological characteristics—strong in equinoxes and weak in solstices. In November 2020, when the F10.7 flux significantly increased, the OI135.6 nm radiation intensity in the EIA region recorded a 100–200% increase compared to the previous month, which was much higher than in the same period in the preceding two years. A similar phenomenon was observed at the same time by the Global-scale Observations of Limb and Disk (GOLD), which makes continuous observations of ionospheric structure variation in global patterns. Data analysis suggests that the EIA at 02:00 LT was due to the attenuation of the EIA before midnight after the disappearance of the eastward electric field. The magnetic latitude of the EIA crest (hereafter denoted by ${\theta }_{ml}F2$) indicates a range-and-seasonal rule of hemispherical asymmetry: closer to the geomagnetic equator in equinoxes and farther away from the geomagnetic equator in solstices. Further studies are needed. Full article

The ionospheric equivalent slab thickness (EST, also named τ) is defined as the ratio of the total electron content (TEC) to the F2-layer peak electron density (NmF2), and it is a significant parameter representative of the ionosphere. This paper presents a comprehensive statistical study of the ionospheric slab thickness at Yakutsk, located at the high latitude of East Asia, using the GPS-TEC and ionosonde NmF2 data for the years 2010–2017. The results show that the τ has different diurnal and seasonal variations in high- and low-solar-activity years, and the τ is greatest in the winter, followed by the equinox, and it is smallest in the summer in both high- and low-solar-activity years, except during the noontime of low-solar-activity years. Specifically, the τ in inter of high-solar-activity year shows an approximate single peak pattern with the peak around noon, while it displays a double-peak pattern with the pre-sunrise and sunset peaks in winter of the low-solar-activity years. Moreover, the τ in the summer and equinox have smaller diurnal variations, and there are peaks with different magnitudes during the sunrise and post-sunset periods. The mainly diurnal variation of τ in different seasons of high- and low-solar-activity years can be explained within the framework of relative variation of TEC and NmF2 during the corresponding period. By defining the disturbance index (DI), which can visually assess the relationship between instantaneous values and the median, we found that the geomagnetic storm would enhance the τ at Yakutsk. An example on 7 June 2013 is also presented to analyze the physical mechanism. It should be due to the intense particle precipitation and expanded plasma convection electric field during the storm at high-latitude Yakutsk station. The results would improve the current understanding of climatological and storm-time behavior of τ at high latitudes in East Asia. Full article

On 20 December 2021, after six quiet years, the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai volcano erupted abruptly. Then, on 15 January 2022, the largest eruption produced a plume well registered from satellites and destroyed the volcanic cone previously formed in 2015, connecting the two islands. We applied a multi-parametric and multi-layer study to investigate all the possible pre-eruption signals and effects of this volcanic activity in the lithosphere, atmosphere, and ionosphere. We focused our attention on: (a) seismological features considering the eruption in terms of an earthquake with equivalent energy released in the lithosphere; (b) atmospheric parameters, such as skin and air temperature, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), cloud cover, relative humidity from climatological datasets; (c) varying magnetic field and electron density observed by ground magnetometers and satellites, even if the event was in the recovery phase of an intense geomagnetic storm. We found different precursors of this unique event in the lithosphere, as well as the effects due to the propagation of acoustic gravity and pressure waves and magnetic and electromagnetic coupling in the form of signals detected by ground stations and satellite data. All these parameters and their detailed investigation confirm the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) models introduced for natural hazards such as volcano eruptions and earthquakes. Full article

The International GNSS Service (IGS) diurnal ROTI maps ionospheric product was developed to characterize ionospheric irregularities occurrence over the Northern hemisphere and has been available for the community since 2014. Currently, the diurnal ROTI maps database hosted by NASA CDDIS covers the period from 2010 to now. Here, we report the ROTI maps product operational status and important changes in the product availability and access. Apart from actual ROTI maps product production, we work on the extension of ROTI maps to cover not only the Northern hemisphere but also the area of the Southern hemisphere and equatorial/low latitude region. Such extended ROTI maps are important for ionospheric irregularities climatology research and ionospheric responses to space weather. We present recent development toward the new ROTI maps product and the updated data format. To evaluate extended the ROTI maps performance, we analyzed the ability to represent key features of ionospheric irregularity occurrence over the Southern hemisphere and low latitudes. For auroral and midlatitudes, we present the cross-comparison of ROTI-derived irregularities patterns over the Northern and Southern hemispheres. For low latitudes, we examined the sensitivity of the resulted ROTI maps to detect plasma irregularities associated with equatorial plasma bubbles development for low, middle, and high solar activity periods. Full article