Search Results (594)

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered unprecedented economic disruptions, raising critical questions about the resilience and adaptability of macroeconomic productivity across countries. This study examines the impact of COVID-19 on macroeconomic efficiency and productivity dynamics in 37 OECD countries using quarterly data from 2018Q1 to 2024Q4. By employing a Slack-Based Measure Data Envelopment Analysis (SBM-DEA) and the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI), we decompose total factor productivity (TFP) into efficiency change (EC) and technological change (TC) across three periods: pre-pandemic, during-pandemic, and post-pandemic. Our framework incorporates both desirable (GDP) and undesirable outputs (inflation, unemployment, housing price inflation, and interest rate distortions), offering a multidimensional view of macroeconomic efficiency. Results show broad but uneven productivity gains, with technological progress proving more resilient than efficiency during the pandemic. Post-COVID recovery trajectories diverged, reflecting differences in structural adaptability and innovation capacity. Regression analysis reveals that stringent lockdowns in 2020 were associated with lower productivity in 2023–2024, while more adaptive policies in 2021 supported long-term technological gains. These findings highlight the importance of aligning crisis response with forward-looking economic strategies and demonstrate the value of DEA-based methods for evaluating macroeconomic performance beyond GDP. Full article

The measurement of national well-being has become central to both academic and policy debates, particularly within the framework of sustainable development. In this context, this study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and subjective well-being in Portugal. Using annual data from 2004 to 2022, we explore the effects of GDP per capita, unemployment, and inflation on the Global Well-Being Index (GWBI). Employing ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, the results indicate a significant positive relationship between GDP per capita and subjective well-being, while inflation is negatively associated. Contrary to expectations, the unemployment rate showed a positive and significant association with the GWBI. This counterintuitive result may reflect institutional buffering effects, such as social safety nets, strong family structures, or lagged responses in perceptions of well-being. Similar patterns were observed in other southern European countries with strong informal social support systems. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of how economic indicators relate to perceived well-being, particularly in the context of a southern European country. The study offers relevant insights for public policy, including the alignment of macroeconomic management with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). Full article

This study aims to map the scientific knowledge of bank profitability and its determinants. It identifies trends and gaps in existing research through a bibliometric analysis. To this end, 634 documents published in the Web of Science database over the last 54 years were analyzed using the bibliometric package. The results indicate an increase in the volume of publications following the 2008 financial crisis, focusing on analyzing the factors influencing bank profitability and economic growth. The Journal of Banking and Finance is the preeminent publication in this field. The literature reviewed shows that bank profitability depends on internal factors (size, credit risk, liquidity, efficiency, and management) and external factors (such as GDP, inflation, interest rates, and unemployment). In addition to the traditional determinants, the recent literature highlights the importance of innovation and technological factors such as digitalization, mobile banking, and electronic payments as relevant to bank profitability. ESG (environmental, social, and governance) and governance indicators, which are still emerging but have been extensively researched in companies, indicate a need for evidence in this area. This paper also provides relevant insights for the formulation of monetary policy and the strategic formulation of banks, helping managers and owners to improve bank performance. It also provides directions for future empirical studies and research collaborations in this field. Full article

In retail logistics, one typical task is to arrange a delivery schedule that guides the intake of inventory from the distribution center to stores. It is essential to accurately predict the out-of-stock (OOS) outcome for various delivery schedules to identify the optimal patterns for minimizing the OOS ratio. This paper investigates the feasibility of utilizing a neural network to accurately predict the out-of-stock (OOS) risk under each delivery pattern. Due to the zero-inflated distribution of the target values, it is necessary to evaluate two prediction accuracies simultaneously: the accuracy on data with a positive ground truth OOS rate and the accuracy on data with a zero ground truth OOS rate. In this paper, I examine how a selection of features associated with delivery schedules and the choice of activation function at the output layer, would impact the accuracy of the model. Full article

The relationship between trade openness and economic performance has been widely debated and researched during the last several decades. However, the specific influence of trade openness from the perspective of controlling the inflation rate is rarely researched specifically for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Accordingly, this research paper attempts to test the influence of trade openness on inflation, focusing on KSA. The paper utilizes historical data from 1975 to 2023 and employs the “Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)” and “Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL)” cointegration techniques to assess the responsiveness of the inflation rate to increased trade openness. The results of the ARDL demonstrated the positive influence that trade openness has on inflation, which is a rejection of Romer’s hypothesis. The findings of the NARDL also rejected Romer’s hypothesis by demonstrating a positive relationship between the positive shocks in trade openness and the inflation rate. Similarly, our results illustrated a significant negative impact of domestic industrialization and government expenditure on inflation. Moreover, we found that the inflation rate in KSA is significantly dependent on economic performance. Finally, our findings demonstrated that the natural resource sector is unable to explain the inflationary pressure in KSA significantly. Full article

This paper analyzes how two major economic downturns—a recession and a stagflation—affected convergence in the European Union (EU). Absolute and conditional convergence rates are estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) semilog regressions based on cross-sectional data from 2004 to 2022. The study tests two hypotheses: there was no absolute convergence in the EU during either the recession or the stagflation period, and conditional convergence occurred during the recession but not during stagflation. The regression results indicate that neither hypothesis can be rejected. External variables—economic openness, inflation, and investment—were more influential during stable periods, whereas internal variables—debt, unemployment, and the control of corruption—had a greater impact during crises. These findings suggest that the EU was more institutionally prepared for the stagflation due to mechanisms developed after the financial crisis, but these tools proved less effective in addressing supply-side shocks. Full article

This study examines the availability and outcomes of Advanced Placement (AP) courses in secondary schools in Georgia (USA) and South Carolina (USA), focusing on how school locale (rurality) and demographic composition influence AP availability and student achievement. The authors analyzed population-level school data from the 2021–22 academic year using a two-step quantitative approach. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression model (ZINB) was employed to assess AP course participation and AP exam performance while addressing overdispersion and excess zeros in the data. Key predictors included school locale (rural versus nonrural), state (Georgia versus South Carolina), and minoritized-majority status. This study finds that rural schools and those where minoritized students make up the majority (i.e., fewer than 50% White students) are significantly less likely to offer AP courses or have any students participate in AP exams. Moreover, these schools had a significantly lower success rate; for example, rural schools were 59% less likely to have students with scores above three. The findings indicate that gaps in access to advanced curriculum may exacerbate existing college and career readiness disparities. Moreover, this study confirms that previous research using sampled datasets underestimates the disparity of AP access. Full article

This study employs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian estimation to rigorously evaluate China’s macroeconomic responses to cost-push, monetary policy, and foreign income shocks. This analysis leverages quarterly data from 2000 to 2024, focusing on critical variables such as the output gap, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, consumption, investment, and employment. The results demonstrate significant social welfare losses primarily arising from persistent inflation and output volatility due to domestic structural rigidities and global market dependencies. Monetary policy interventions effectively moderate short-term volatility but induce welfare costs if overly restrictive. The findings underscore the necessity of targeted structural reforms to enhance economic flexibility, balanced monetary policy to mitigate aggressive interventions, and diversified economic strategies to reduce external vulnerability. These insights contribute novel policy perspectives for enhancing China’s macroeconomic stability and resilience. Full article

With rising energy costs and the need for sustainable power solutions in urban South African settings, grid-tied renewable energy systems have become viable alternatives for reducing dependence on traditional grid supply. This study investigates the techno-economic feasibility of a grid-connected hybrid photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage system designed for a commercial facility located in Johannesburg, South Africa—an area characterized by a subtropical highland climate. We conducted the analysis using the HOMER Grid software and evaluated the performance of the proposed PV/battery system against the baseline grid-only configuration. Simulation results indicate that the optimal systems, comprising 337 kW of flat-plate PV and 901 kWh of lithium-ion battery storage, offers a significant reduction in electricity expenditure, lowering the annual utility cost from $39,229 to $897. The system demonstrates a simple payback period of less than two years and achieves a net present value (NPV) of approximately $449,491 over a 25-year project lifespan. In addition to delivering substantial cost savings, the proposed configuration also enhances energy resilience. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of variables such as inflation rate, discount rate, and load profile fluctuations on system performance and economic returns. The results affirm the suitability of hybrid grid-tied PV/battery systems for cost-effective, sustainable urban energy solutions in climates with high solar potential. Full article

During heavy rainfalls, overflowing sewage water flows from the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) chambers and pollutes the Trnávka River in Trnava, Slovakia. This paper aims to propose water retention measures for the Trnávka River as a remediation technique for CSO-affected watercourses, which can contribute to the ‘flushing’ of the riverbed. During heavy rainfalls, the Trnávka River is polluted by solid, non-soluble materials, which produce unpleasant odors and are the subject of numerous complaints by citizens, particularly during low water levels. Three inflatable rubber weirs were designed, and their design was verified using a 1D numerical model of the Trnávka River. The simulations of the proposed measures performed in the HEC-RAS 5.0 software excluded the adverse effect of the backwater on the functioning of the CSO chambers in the city of Trnava during normal flow rates and confirmed that, even after installation of the weirs, the transition of the flood wave will pass in the riverbed, not causing the flooding of the adjacent area. The chemical–physical study of the Trnávka River confirmed our assumption that higher flow rates, which can be secured by the regulation of the proposed weirs, can contribute to the purity of the watercourse in the city of Trnava. Full article

This study investigates cyclical asymmetries in money demand models considering the moderating effect of financial development. Prior research has overlooked this issue in the money demand literature within the Fijian context, where research is outdated. Using annual data from 1983 to 2023, we find that income elasticity is about positive unity, irrespective of recessions or expansions. In expansions, an increase in interest rates reduces money demand. An increase in interest rates reduces money demand nine times more strongly in recessions. These effects are accentuated with financial development. Declining interest rates do not impact money demand. The findings suggest that stable money demand could be achievable, but only once the impact of structural breaks is accounted for. Under ideal conditions—without such breaks—money demand exhibits stability, and its connection to income and interest rates appears predictable. However, in reality, structural disruptions complicate this relationship, making money demand less consistent with its key drivers and undermining the reliability of money supply as a monetary policy instrument. The findings align with the pulling on a string hypothesis that monetary contractions control inflation, but expansions may not impact output. Full article

Zimbabwe’s economy has experienced extreme exchange rate fluctuations over the past decades, driven by persistent macroeconomic instability and episodes of hyperinflation. The instability in exchange rates can significantly impact trade balances, inflation rates, and overall economic resilience. Understanding the impact of exchange rate volatility (ERV) on international trade is crucial in such a context. This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility (ERV) on international trade in Zimbabwe, addressing a literature gap related to its unique economic challenges and hyperinflation. Using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model on data from 1990 to 2023, the study finds a negative relationship between ERV and international trade. The analysis suggests that inflation reduces imports, but foreign direct investment (FDI) and balance of payments (BOP) increase export uncertainties. This study recommends optimal fiscal and monetary management to mitigate ERV and enhance trade stability, offering insights for policymakers to strengthen Zimbabwe’s trade resilience amid exchange rate fluctuations. Full article

This study examines the demographic and macroeconomic factors influencing housing prices in London from Q3 2014 to Q4 2022, focusing on the pre- and post-Brexit referendum periods. Using multiple regression analysis, the research evaluates the impact of interest rates, inflation, construction costs, population changes, and net migration on the housing price index (HPI) across various market segments. The findings suggest that interest rate base rates, consumer price inflation, and construction output price indices were significant predictors of housing price fluctuations. Notably, cash purchases exhibited the strongest explanatory power due to a reduced sensitivity to market changes. Additionally, London’s population was a key determinant, particularly affecting first-time buyers and mortgage-backed purchases. These results contribute to a deeper understanding of the London housing market and offer insights into policy measures addressing housing affordability and investment dynamics. Full article

Robust mean-geometric mean (MGM) linking methods enable reliable group comparisons in item response theory models under fixed and sparse differential item functioning. This article evaluates six alternative standard error and confidence interval (CI) estimation methods across four MGM linking approaches. Our Simulation Study demonstrates that CIs based on the delta method or bootstrap procedures using the normal distribution or empirical quantiles exhibit highly inflated coverage rates. In contrast, CIs derived from a weighted least squares estimation problem, as well as basic and bias-corrected bootstrap methods, yield satisfactory coverage rates in most simulation conditions for robust MGM linking. Full article

Exchange rate volatility poses significant challenges for emerging markets, influencing trade balances, inflation, and capital flows. South Africa’s Rand is particularly vulnerable to global risk sentiment, gold price fluctuations, and interest rate differentials, yet prior studies often analyse these factors in isolation. This study integrates them within an autoregressive distributed lag framework, using monthly data from 2005 to 2023 to capture both short-term fluctuations and long-term equilibrium effects. The findings confirm that higher global risk sentiment triggers immediate Rand depreciation, driven by capital outflows to safe-haven assets. Conversely, rising gold prices and favourable interest rate differentials stabilise the Rand, strengthening trade balances and attracting capital inflows. These results underscore the interconnected nature of global financial conditions and exchange rate movements. This study highlights the importance of economic diversification, foreign reserve accumulation, and proactive monetary policies in mitigating currency instability in emerging markets. Full article