Search Results (264)

This study explores asymmetric volatility structures within multivariate hysteretic autoregressive (MHAR) models that incorporate conditional correlations, aiming to flexibly capture the dynamic behavior of global financial assets. The proposed framework integrates regime switching and time-varying delays governed by a hysteresis variable, enabling the model to account for both asymmetric volatility and evolving correlation patterns over time. We adopt a fully Bayesian inference approach using adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques, allowing for the joint estimation of model parameters, Value-at-Risk (VaR), and Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES). The accuracy of VaR forecasts is assessed through two standard backtesting procedures. Our empirical analysis involves both simulated data and real-world financial datasets to evaluate the model’s effectiveness in capturing downside risk dynamics. We demonstrate the application of the proposed method on three pairs of daily log returns involving the S&P500, Bank of America (BAC), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and Goldman Sachs (GS), present the results obtained, and compare them against the original model framework. Full article

Various data such as power grid sensors and manual observed icing, CMA (China Meteorological Administration) Land Surface Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) products, and the Fifth Generation Atmospheric Reanalysis of the Global Climate from Europe Center of Middle Range Weather Forecast (ERA5) are adopted to diagnose an icing process under a cold surge during 16–23 December 2023 in northeastern Yunnan Province. The results show that: (1) in the early stage of the process, mainly the freezing types, such as GG (temperature > 0 °C, relative humidity ≥ 75%) and DG (temperature < 0 °C, relative humidity ≥ 75%), occur. At the end of the process, an increase in icing type as GD (temperature > 0 °C, relative humidity < 75%) appears. (2) Significant differences exist in the elements during different stages of icing, and the atmospheric thermal, dynamic, and water vapor conditions are conducive to the occurrence of freezing rain during ice accretion. The main impact weather systems of this process include a strong high ridge in the mid to high latitudes of East Asia, transverse troughs in front of the high ridge south to Lake Baikal, low altitude troughs, and ground fronts. The transverse trough in front of the high ridge can cause cold air to accumulate and then move eastward and southward. The southerly flows, surface fronts, and other low-pressure systems can provide powerful thermodynamic and moisture conditions for ice accumulation. Full article

This study examines a Mei-Yu rainfall event using rain gauges (RG) and OTT Parsivel disdrometers to observe precipitation characteristics and raindrop size distributions (RSD), with comparisons made against Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations. Results show that Parsivel-derived rain rates (RR) are slightly underestimated relative to RG measurements. Both observations and simulations identify 1–3 mm raindrops as the dominant precipitation contributors, though the model overestimates small and large drop contributions. At low RR, decreased small-drop and increased large-drop concentrations cause corresponding leftward and rightward RSD shifts with decreasing altitude—a pattern well captured by simulations. However, at elevated rainfall rates, the simulated concentration of large raindrops shows no significant increase, resulting in negligible rightward shifting of RSD in the model outputs. Autoconversion from cloud droplets to raindrops (ATcr), collision and breakup between raindrops (AGrr), ice melting (MLir), and evaporation of raindrops (VDrv) contribute more to the number density of raindrops. At 0.1 < RR < 1 mm·h⁻¹, ATcr dominates, while VDrv peaks in this intensity range before decreasing. At higher intensities (RR > 20 mm·h⁻¹), AGrr contributes most, followed by MLir. When the RR is high enough, the breakup of raindrops plays a more important role than collision, leading to a decrease in the number density of raindrops. The overestimation of raindrop breakup from the numerical parameterization may be one of the reasons why the RSD does not shift significantly to the right toward the surface under the heavy RR grade. The RSD near the surface varies with the RR and characterizes surface precipitation well. Toward the surface, ATcr and VDrv, but not AGrr, become similar when precipitation approaches. Full article

A methodology for detecting systematic errors in sets of equally accurate, uncorrelated, aggregate measurements is proposed and applied within the automatic real-time dispatch control system of a copper concentrator plant (CCP) to refine the technical and economic performance indicators (EPIs) computed by the system. This work addresses and solves the problem of selecting and obtaining reliable measurement data by exploiting the redundant measurements of process streams together with the balance equations linking those streams. This study formulates an approach for integrating cloud technologies, machine learning methods, and forecasting into information control systems (ICSs) via predictive analytics to optimize CCP production processes. A method for combining the hybrid cloud infrastructure with an LSTM-DNN neural network model has been developed, yielding a marked improvement in TEP for copper concentration operations. The forecasting accuracy for the key process parameters rose from 75% to 95%. Predictive control reduced energy consumption by 10% through more efficient resource use, while the copper losses to tailings fell by 15–20% thanks to optimized reagent dosing and the stabilization of the flotation process. Equipment failure prediction cut the amount of unplanned downtime by 30%. As a result, the control system became adaptive, automatically correcting the parameters in real time and lessening the reliance on operator decisions. The architectural model of an ICS for metallurgical production based on the hybrid cloud and the LSTM-DNN model was devised to enhance forecasting accuracy and optimize the EPIs of the CCP. The proposed model was experimentally evaluated against alternative neural network architectures (DNN, GRU, Transformer, and Hybrid_NN_TD_AIST). The results demonstrated the superiority of the LSTM-DNN in forecasting accuracy (92.4%), noise robustness (0.89), and a minimal root-mean-square error (RMSE = 0.079). The model shows a strong capability to handle multidimensional, non-stationary time series and to perform adaptive measurement correction in real time. Full article

Glaciers are significant sources of fresh water on planet Earth. The Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalayan (HKH) glaciers provide the water supply to more than half of the human population of the globe, for agricultural activities, biodiversity survival, and ecosystem services. In recent years, the loss of glacial ice has been forecasted to cause problems such as sea level rise, changes in water availability, and release of contaminants that reside in the surfaces of glaciers or within them. In this regard, mineralogical sediments play a significant role in the geochemistry of glaciers and element cycling. This study analyzed elemental pollutants found in the glaciers of Pakistan and investigated the diverse bacterial communities residing therein. Samples of ice and sediments were collected from the Gilgit, Hunza, and Swat glaciers in northern Pakistan. Nine elements, including co-factors, heavy metals, and nutrients, were assessed using atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The research findings indicate higher concentrations of the elements K, Fe, Cu, and Cr in Hunza glacier ice (Hgi) and Ni, Zn, As, and Cd in Gilgit glacier ice (Ggi). In terms of glacier sediments, Swat (Sgs), Gilgit (Ggs), and Hunza (Hgs) samples showed the highest concentrations of K, Cu, Ni, Zn, As, Pb, Cd, and, respectively, of Fe, and Cr. The amount of Cu and Cr is the same in Swat glacier ice and Swat glacier foot. However, the concentration of some elements (As, K, Pb, Zn) is higher in Swat glacier ice, while the amount of some elements (Cd, Ni) is greater in Swat glacier foot. Furthermore, microbial cultivation techniques revealed diverse bacterial communities inhabiting the sampled glaciers. Phylogenetic analysis of the bacterial isolates, based on 16S rRNA gene sequences, showed high homology (99–100%) with previously reported species. The resultant phylogenetic tree grouped the bacterial isolates, such as Serratia marcescens, Cupriavidus sp., and Bacillus cereus, with closely related species known for their roles in nutrient cycling, environmental resilience, and metal tolerance. These findings highlight the ecological significance and adaptive potential of microbial communities in glacier environments, emphasizing their role in elemental cycling and environmental resilience. Full article

The southern Baltic Sea is characterized by highly variable weather conditions, particularly in autumn and winter, when storms, strong westerly winds, and temporary sea ice formation disrupt maritime operations. This study presents a climatographic overview and evaluates key hydrometeorological factors that influence the safe and efficient use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as bunkering fuel in the region. The analysis draws on long-term meteorological and hydrological datasets (1971–2020), including satellite observations and in situ measurements. It identifies operational constraints, such as wind speed, wave height, visibility, and ice cover, and assesses their impact on LNG logistics and terminal functionality. Thresholds for safe operations are evaluated in accordance with IMO and ISO safety standards. An ice severity forecast for 2011–2030 was developed using the ECHAM5 global climate model under the A1B emission scenario, indicating potential seasonal risks to LNG operations. While baseline safety criteria are generally met, environmental variability in the region may still cause temporary disruptions. Findings underscore the need for resilient port infrastructure, including anti-icing systems, heated transfer equipment, and real-time environmental monitoring, to ensure operational continuity. Integrating weather forecasting into LNG logistics supports uninterrupted deliveries and contributes to EU goals for energy diversification and emissions reduction. The study concludes that strategic investments in LNG infrastructure—tailored to regional climatic conditions—can enhance energy security in the southern Baltic, provided environmental risks are systematically accounted for in operational planning. Full article

In this study, we evaluate aerosol, cloud, and radiation interactions in GFS.V17.p8 (Global Forecast System System Version 17 prototype 8). Two experiments were conducted for the summer of 2020. In the control experiment (EXP CTL), aerosols interact with radiation only, incorporating direct and semi-direct aerosol effects. The sensitivity experiment (EXP ACI) couples aerosols with both radiation and Thompson microphysics, accounting for aerosol indirect effects and fully interactive aerosol–cloud dynamics. Introducing aerosol and cloud interactions results in net cooling at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Further analysis shows that the EXP ACI produces more liquid water at lower levels and less ice water at higher levels compared to the EXP CTL. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) shows a good linear relationship with cloud droplet number concentration, similar to other climate models, though with larger standard deviations. Including aerosol and cloud interactions generally enhances simulations of the Indian Summer Monsoon, stratocumulus, and diurnal cycles. Additionally, the study evaluates the impacts of aerosols on deep convection and cloud life cycles. Full article

Microwave sounding observations obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Meteorological Operational Satellite Program (METOP) satellites have been used for retrieving the cloud ice water path (IWP). However, the IWP algorithms developed in the past cannot be applied to the Fengyun-3F (FY-3F) microwave radiometers due to the differences in frequency of the primary channels and the fields of view. In this study, the IWP algorithm was tailored for the FY-3F satellite, and the retrieved IWP was compared with the fifth generation of reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) and the Meteorological Operational Satellite-C (METOP-C) products. The results indicate that the IWP distribution retrieved from FY-3F observations demonstrates strong consistency with the cloud ice distributions in ERA5 data and METOP-C products in low-latitude regions. However, discrepancies are observed among the three datasets in mid- to high-latitude regions. ERA5 data underestimate the frequency of high IWP values and overestimate the frequency of low IWP values. The IWP retrieval results from satellite datasets demonstrate a high level of consistency. Furthermore, an analysis of the IWP time series reveals that the retrieval algorithm used in this study better captures variability and seasonal characteristics of IWP compared to ERA5 data. Additionally, a comparison of FY-3F retrieval results with METOP-C products shows a high correlation and generally consistent distribution characteristics across latitude bands. These findings confirm the high accuracy of IWP retrieval from FY-3F data, which holds significant value for advancing IWP research in China. Full article

Financial Time Series Forecasting (TSF) remains a critical challenge in Artificial Intelligence (AI) due to the inherent complexity of financial data, characterized by strong non-linearity, dynamic non-stationarity, and multi-factor coupling. To address the performance limitations of Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) caused by hyperparameter sensitivity, this study proposes an SNN model optimized by an Improved Cuckoo Search (ICS) algorithm (termed ICS-SNN). The ICS algorithm enhances global search capability through piecewise-mapping-based population initialization and introduces a dynamic discovery probability mechanism that adaptively increases with iteration rounds, thereby balancing exploration and exploitation. Applied to futures market price difference prediction, experimental results demonstrate that ICS-SNN achieves reductions of 13.82% in MAE, 21.27% in MSE, and 15.21% in MAPE, while improving the coefficient of determination (R²) from 0.9790 to 0.9822, compared to the baseline SNN. Furthermore, ICS-SNN significantly outperforms mainstream models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Backpropagation (BP) networks, reducing prediction errors by 10.8% (MAE) and 34.9% (MSE), respectively, without compromising computational efficiency. This work highlights that ICS-SNN provides a biologically plausible and computationally efficient framework for complex financial TSF, bridging the gap between neuromorphic principles and real-world financial analytics. The proposed method not only reduces manual intervention in hyperparameter tuning but also offers a scalable solution for high-frequency trading and multi-modal data fusion in future research. Full article

Thermal analysis is an indispensable aspect of semiconductor packaging. Excessive operating temperatures in integrated circuit (IC) packages can degrade component performance and even cause failure. Therefore, thermal resistance and thermal characteristics are critical to the performance and reliability of electronic components. Machine learning modeling offers an effective way to predict the thermal performance of IC packages. In this study, data from finite element analysis (FEA) are utilized by machine learning models to predict thermal resistance during package testing. For two package types, namely the Quad Flat No-lead (QFN) and the Thin Fine-pitch Ball Grid Array (TFBGA), data derived from finite element analysis, are employed to predict thermal resistance. The thermal resistance values include θ_JA, θ_JB, θ_JC, Ψ_JT, and Ψ_JB. Five machine learning models, namely the light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), random forest (RF), XGBoost (XGB), support vector regression (SVR), and multilayer perceptron regression (MLP), are applied as forecasting models in this study. Numerical results indicate that the XGBoost model outperforms the other models in terms of forecasting accuracy for almost all cases. Furthermore, the forecasting accuracy achieved by the XGBoost model is highly satisfactory. In conclusion, the XGBoost model shows significant promise as a reliable tool for predicting thermal resistance in packaging design. The application of machine learning techniques for forecasting these parameters could enhance the efficiency and reliability of IC packaging designs. Full article

Winter mixed-phase precipitation (P) impacts transportation, electric power grids, and homes. Forecasting winter precipitation such as freezing precipitation (ZP), freezing rain (ZR), freezing drizzle (ZL), ice pellets (IPs), and the snow (S) and rain (R) boundary remains challenging due to the complex cloud microphysical and dynamical processes involved, which are difficult to predict with the current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Understanding these processes based on observations is crucial for improving NWP models. To aid this effort, Environment and Climate Change Canada deployed specialized instruments such as the Vaisala FD71P and OTT PARSIVEL disdrometers, which measure P type (PT), particle size distributions, and fall velocity (V). The liquid water content (LWC) and mean mass-weighted diameter (${\mathrm{D}}_{\mathrm{m}}$) were derived based on the PARSIVEL data during ZP events. Additionally, a Micro Rain Radar (MRR) and an OTT Pluvio2 P gauge were used as part of the Winter Precipitation Type Research Multi-Scale Experiment (WINTRE-MIX) field campaign at Sorel, Quebec. The dataset included manual measurements of the snow water equivalent (SWE), PT, and radiosonde profiles. The analysis revealed that the FD71P and PARSIVEL instruments generally agreed in detecting P and snow events. However, FD71P tended to overestimate ZR and underestimate IPs, while PARSIVEL showed superior detection of R, ZR, and S. Conversely, the FD71P performed better in identifying ZL. These discrepancies may stem from uncertainties in the velocity–diameter (V-D) relationship used to diagnose ZR and IPs. Observations from the MRR, radiosondes, and surface data linked ZR and IP events to melting layers (MLs). IP events were associated with colder surface temperatures (Ts) compared to ZP events. Most ZR and ZL occurrences were characterized by light P with low LWC and specific intensity and ${\mathrm{D}}_{\mathrm{m}}$ thresholds. Additionally, snow events were more common at warmer T compared to liquid P under low surface relative humidity conditions. The Pluvio2 gauge significantly underestimated snowfall compared to the optical probes and manual measurements. However, snowfall estimates derived from PARSIVEL data, adjusted for snow density to account for riming effects, closely matched measurements from the FD71P and manual observations. Full article

Ice-jam floods (IJFs) are a significant hydrological phenomenon in the upper reaches of the Heilongjiang River, posing substantial threats to public safety and property. This study employed various feature selection techniques, including the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), Grey Relational Analysis (GRA), mutual information (MI), and stepwise regression (SR), to identify key predictors of river ice break-up dates. Based on this, we constructed various machine learning models, including Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Regression (SVR). The results indicate that the ice reserves in the Oupu to Heihe section have the most significant impact on the ice break-up date in the Heihe section. Additionally, the accumulated temperature during the break-up period and average temperature before river ice break-up are identified as features closely related to the river’s opening in all four feature selection methods. The choice of feature selection method notably impacts the performance of the machine learning models in predicting the river ice break-up dates. Among the models tested, XGBoost with PCC-based feature selection achieved the highest accuracy (RMSE = 2.074, MAE = 1.571, R² = 0.784, NSE = 0.756, TSS = 0.950). This study provides a more accurate and effective method for predicting river ice break-up dates, offering a scientific basis for preventing and managing IJF disasters. Full article

Contrails form as a result of water vapor bonding with soot emitted from jet engines at cruise altitudes, leading to contrail formation in Ice Supersaturated Regions (ISSRs). Contrails are estimated to contribute approximately 2% to total anthropogenic global warming. Some researchers have developed simulation models to estimate the frequency, duration, and spatial distribution of contrails. Other researchers have identified issues with the accuracy of the data for predicting the timing and precise geographic positioning of ISSRs. This study presents a systematic review of 22 peer-reviewed articles that included detailed models of ISSR identification, identifying three atmospheric data sources, four parameters, and two equations for calculating the parameters derived. A further analysis revealed differences in the temperature and RH_W readings across the three databases, resulting in differences in the RH_I calculations and the identification of ISSRs. Over an 18-month period in Sterling, Virginia, USA, the radiosonde data and two atmospheric forecast databases identified the ISSR conditions on 44%, 47%, and 77% of days, respectively. Broken down by a flight level between 30,000 and 39,999 feet in altitude, these differences are highlighted further. The forecast databases overestimated the presence of ISSRs compared to the radiosonde data. These findings underscore the variability inherent in atmospheric datasets and the conversion methods, highlighting potential areas for refinement in ISSR prediction, notably in the development of ensemble forecasts based on several atmospheric databases. The implications of these results, the limitations of this study, and future work are discussed. Full article

A strong nonlinear ice load has a significant impact on the resistance and power demand of polar transport ships under different drafts in brash ice channels. In this study, the CFD-DEM coupling method is used to investigate the self-propulsion performance of a full-scale polar transport ship in brash ice channels. The interactions between the full-scale polar transport ship, propeller, rudder, and brash ice are effectively simulated. First, the hydrodynamic performance of an open-water propeller is tested, and it is found that the numerical errors of efficiency and the experimental result are less than 8%. Then, the ice resistance, total thrust, effective power, delivered power, and propulsive efficiency of the polar transport ship under different draft conditions are studied, and the results are in good agreement with those of the self-propulsion model tests in the brash ice channel. Through a numerical simulation of self-propulsion in the brash ice channel, self-propulsion points under different drafts and brash ice thicknesses are obtained. It is found that the propeller rotation speed is closely related to the draft depth. Finally, experiments and numerical simulations of the total ice resistance are carried out under different brash ice thicknesses, and the results are consistent with those of the empirical formulas. The accuracy of the three empirical formulas under different drafts is compared. This research work determines the resistance, power demand, and propulsive efficiency of a polar transport ship under given ice conditions and speeds, as well as the self-propulsion points under different ice thicknesses. It is of great significance for the control of ships in polar navigation. Full article

This study investigates the climatic background of winter PM2.5 (particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or smaller) concentrations in Hubei Province (DJF-HBPMC) and evaluates its predictability. The key findings are as follows: (1) Elevated DJF-HBPMC levels are associated with an upper-tropospheric northerly anomaly, a deepened southern branch trough (SBT) that facilitates southwesterly flow into central and eastern China, and a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), which reduces the frequency and intensity of cold air intrusions. Near-surface easterlies and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over Hubei contribute to reduced precipitation, thereby decreasing the dispersion of pollutants and leading to higher PM2.5 concentrations. (2) Significant correlations are observed between DJF-HBPMC and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in specific oceanic regions, as well as sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies near the Antarctic. For the atmospheric pattern anomalies over Hubei Province, the North Atlantic SST mode (NA) promotes the southward intrusion of northerlies, while the Northwest Pacific (NWP) and South Pacific (SPC) SST modes enhance wet deposition through increased precipitation, showing a negative correlation with DJF-HBPMC. Conversely, the South Atlantic–Southwest Indian Ocean SST mode (SAIO) and the Ross Sea sea-ice mode (ROSIC) contribute to more stable local atmospheric conditions, which reduce pollutant dispersion and increase PM2.5 accumulation, thus exhibiting a positive correlation with DJF-HBPMC. (3) A multiple linear regression (MLR) model, using selected seasonal SST and SIC indices, effectively predicts DJF-HBPMC, showing high correlation coefficients (CORR) and anomaly sign consistency rates (AS) compared to real-time values. (4) In daily HBPMC forecasting, both the Reversed Unrestricted Mixed-Frequency Data Sampling (RU-MIDAS) and Reversed Restricted-MIDAS (RR-MIDAS) models exhibit superior skill using only monthly precipitation, and the RR-MIDAS offers the best balance in prediction accuracy and trend consistency when incorporating monthly precipitation along with monthly SST and SIC indices. Full article