Search Results (178)

Climate change is intensifying hydrological extremes, yet most frameworks assess drought and flood hazards independently, limiting integrated risk management. This study proposes a two-dimensional analytical framework to characterize the drought-flood continuum, moving beyond single-index approaches. We introduce the Hydro-Hazard Index (HHI) as a directionality metric (HHI = Flood Severity − Drought Severity) to classify the dominant hazard type, and the Total Severity Index (TSI = Flood Severity + Drought Severity) as a complementary metric to quantify overall hazard magnitude. Analyzing multi-temporal data from 115 hexagonal units (2018–2024), we employed dynamic features (trends, changes, volatility) and four machine learning models to classify areas as “flood-prone” based on validated flood records. Our results show HHI values ranging from −2.44 to 8.81, with 20.9% of areas classified as Flood-Dominated (mean HHI = 4.58) and 79.1% as Normal (mean HHI = 0.76). Crucially, the two-dimensional analysis revealed that areas with identical HHI values can have vastly different TSI values, under scoring the importance of our dual-index approach. Random Forest achieved the highest performance in predicting flood-prone status (Accuracy = 0.913, AUC = 0.967, Recall = 1.00), with flood_volatility as the most important predictor (24.2%). Spatial autocorrelation confirmed strong clustering of high-risk areas (Moran’s I = 0.716, p < 0.001). By analyzing flood and drought as distinct but interacting dimensions, this framework provides a more robust and nuanced tool for integrated risk assessment. While acknowledging limitations related to data availability and the need for further independent validation, the proposed framework supports sustainable water resource management and climate adaptation planning under increasing hydrological uncertainty. Full article

Floods are among the most destructive natural hazards, posing a significant risk to lives and infrastructure worldwide. Effective flood risk management demands precise, multidimensional approaches. In this direction, the current study aims to evaluate and compare two methods for flood-risk assessment: the scenario-based Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) and the data-driven Random Forest (RF) method. To this end, the Great Karun watershed in Iran was chosen due to its complex hydrological and climatic conditions. Hydro-climatic, hydrological, topographic, land-cover datasets, and actual flood observations were applied and analyzed based on fifteen influencing factors recommended by expert opinion. In the OWA approach, while factor weights were determined using the Best-Worst Method, flood-risk maps were produced based on five scenarios: very optimistic, optimistic, intermediate, pessimistic, and very pessimistic. In the RF approach, factor importance index was calculated via the mean decrease impurity algorithm, and the model was trained to generate flood-risk maps. Results showed that distance from rivers and slope were the most influential factors in OWA, while precipitation and flow accumulation dominated in RF. Prediction rate for OWA scenarios ranged from 1.4 to 3.5%, while RF achieved 16.0%, and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) was 0.984. Optimistic scenarios overestimated, and pessimistic scenarios underestimated risk, with the OWA intermediate scenario most closely matching RF results. RF demonstrated superior performance for flood-risk classification, highlighting its applicability for precise flood management. Overall, this study presents a novel comparative framework by integrating scenario-based OWA-BWM and Random Forest approaches to investigate the effects of decision-maker preferences and data-driven learning on flood susceptibility mapping. Full article

Wave overtopping is one of the most complex coastal hazards to characterize in field conditions due to its high non-linearity and the interaction between unsteady hydrodynamics and wave–structure processes. To get insights into the underlying occurrence and persistence of overtopping, this study proposes an integration of numerical and data-driven models. Multi-month field observations made at a breakwater are used to investigate the hydro-meteorological parameters causing overtopping initiation and persistence. High-frequency video-derived overtopping detections are combined with coupled ADCIRC–UnSWAN (ADvanced CIRCulation–Unstructured Simulating WAves Nearshore) hindcasts to construct near-structure hydro-meteorological conditions. The results reveal a clear dynamical asymmetry showing that overtopping initiation corresponds to exceedance of crest elevation at individual wave-scale associated with elevated wave height, water level, wave steepness, and wind characteristics, whereas overtopping persistence depends on short-term temporal effects associated with wave energy, direction, and sustained water levels. Gradient-boosted decision trees, temporal convolutional networks, and Transformer models are employed, demonstrating that persistence cannot be inferred from instantaneous sea-states alone, indicating a separation of timescales between triggering and sustained overtopping dynamics. These findings provide field-scale evidence of distinct hydrodynamic regimes governing overtopping processes, highlighting the importance of temporal characteristics for understanding overtopping dynamics and developing predictive coastal hazard frameworks. Full article

Flood hazards are intensifying across Africa due to rapid urban expansion and hydro-climatic variability. This study develops a multi-metric geospatial framework combining extreme value analysis, hydrograph-based metrics, and dependence modelling to quantify flood magnitude, frequency, timing, and joint risk dynamics. Daily precipitation and streamflow reanalysis data (1985–2025) were analyzed for two contrasting Tanzanian catchments: the large Rufiji basin (RU) and the smaller Mirongo catchment (MW). Annual maxima were modelled using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, complemented by flow duration curves, peak-over-threshold detection, and regression-copula dependence analysis. Results reveal strong hydrological contrasts. RU exhibits amplified rare-event growth (design floods from ~2850 to 11,770 m³/s), extended recession persistence (>100 days), low flashiness, and long rainfall-runoff lags (~15 days), indicating storage-dominated behavior. MW shows smaller design floods (~80 to 370 m³/s), higher flashiness, and short lags (~4 days), reflecting rapid, rainfall-driven response. Gaussian copula parameters indicate moderate dependence in both basins (0.32 and 0.34), suggesting that joint dependence alone does not distinguish flood mechanisms without complementary metrics. The proposed framework improves basin-specific flood risk profiling and supports geospatial early-warning system design in data-scarce Sub-Saharan environments. Full article

Quantifying the impact of land use changes on the threat of flash-floods is a critical consideration in flood hazard planning and risk reduction, and is an area of active research. Here, a coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model hydrological extension package (i.e., WRF-Hydro) modeling approach is applied to simulate flash-flooding processes for short-duration, localized, intense precipitation events. To better understand the effect of urbanization on flash floods, a series of numerical experiments is performed surrounding Ellicott City, Maryland, a location which has experienced both significant heavy rainfall events and suburban development over the past several decades. Two intense rainfall events occurring on 30 July 2016 and 27 May 2018 are investigated, respectively, to first calibrate the hydrologic model performance and then quantify the sensitivity of flash flooding to varying degrees of urbanization. Performing the same experiments using observed historical land use states is of more limited insight, as the thrust of suburban development in the Ellicott City region significantly predates satellite-derived land use datasets. Results confirm that urbanization produces larger river streamflow, higher water stages, faster hydrologic responses to achieve peak flow discharge, and shorter recession limbs, even for very intense, short-duration events. The collective findings suggest that WRF-Hydro is applicable for both watershed flash flood prediction and hypothesis testing, and demonstrates potential utility to urban development decision-makers in locations such as Ellicott City, which could face future increases in catastrophic flooding. Full article

Tunnel seepage in heterogeneous ground can trigger hydrogeological hazards such as concentrated water inflow, groundwater depletion, deformation of surrounding structures, and subsequent eco-environmental degradation. However, these processes are still commonly evaluated using deterministic models that neglect the spatial variability of hydrogeological parameters. To address this limitation, this study develops a stochastic hydro–geo–mechanical–ecological framework that integrates random field theory with physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for hazard evaluation and rapid prediction of tunnel seepage responses. The spatial variability of key parameters, including permeability and porosity, is characterized using the Karhunen–Loeve expansion and embedded into coupled governing equations for unsaturated–saturated seepage, seepage–stress interaction, and groundwater–soil–vegetation responses. A PINN surrogate model with random-field inputs is then constructed to predict hydraulic head, tunnel inflow, displacement, groundwater depth, vegetation coverage, and soil physicochemical indices, while simultaneously quantifying uncertainty. A karst tunnel case in Chongqing, China, is used to demonstrate the proposed framework. The results show that spatial heterogeneity promotes preferential flow paths and intensifies seepage-induced hazards compared with deterministic mean simulations, leading to larger groundwater drawdown, stronger ecological degradation, and greater overall response variability. The proposed PINN achieves high predictive accuracy (R² > 0.97) and reduces single-case computational time from hours to seconds, enabling efficient multi-scenario evaluation and uncertainty-aware risk assessment. This framework provides a physically consistent and computationally efficient tool for evaluating water-related hazards and long-term environmental impacts in underground engineering. Full article

Drought is a slowly evolving, multi-driver hydro-meteorological hazard whose accurate early prediction is a cornerstone of climate-smart agriculture and water-resource planning. Existing data-driven drought forecasting frameworks suffer from three persistent limitations: (i) most models concatenate heterogeneous climate variables into a single flat feature vector, implicitly assuming a single dominant driver such as precipitation, even though atmospheric moisture demand, radiation and wind-mediated evapotranspiration co-determine drought onset; (ii) wavelet preprocessing is typically applied to the full series, introducing future-information leakage that violates the operational causality requirement of forecasting; and (iii) most architectures predict a single horizon and provide no causal attribution explaining when, where and which climatic variables initiated the event. This study proposes WaveDroughtNet, a multi-modal, multi-horizon deep-learning framework that addresses these limitations through five integrated components: (a) a strictly causal Daubechies-4 wavelet decomposition computed in a rolling fashion; (b) six modality-specific encoders with stochastic modality dropout (p = 0.15); (c) cross-modal multi-head attention with four heads; (d) a four-layer temporal convolutional network (TCN) backbone with dilation factors yielding a 240-step receptive field; and (e) a post hoc DroughtOriginTracer that combines temporal attention, modal-attribution and inter-district propagation scans. The Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), used as the supervisory target, is computed following the canonical Vicente-Serrano formulation. water balance $D=P-\mathrm{P}\mathrm{E}\mathrm{T}$ (Hargreaves PET) at a 4-week (≈1-month) timescale, fitted with a three-parameter log-logistic distribution via L-moments, validated by Kolmogorov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit testing ($\alpha =0.05$) per district, and standardised through the inverse-normal cumulative distribution function. Trained on 18,304 weekly district records from NASA POWER reanalysis (2014–2025) covering all 32 districts of Tamil Nadu, India, WaveDroughtNet uses only 256,869 parameters and produces, in a single forward pass, four forecasts (1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 1 year). On the held-out 2024 test partition ($N=1728$), the model attains weighted $F1=0.9221$ and $R^2=0.8512$ at the 1-week horizon, and weighted $F1=0.8498$ and $R^2=0.6812$ at the 1-year horizon. Diebold–Mariano tests confirm that WaveDroughtNet significantly outperforms naive persistence, seasonal naive, LSTM, ConvLSTM and a vanilla Transformer at the 3-month and 1-year horizons (p < 0.001). The DroughtOriginTracer successfully back-projects 15 Coimbatore events to causal origins 29–41 weeks prior to onset. We explicitly acknowledge three limitations that constrain operational deployment in its current form—zero severe events in the 2024 test partition ($F{1}_{severe}$ = 0.000), static inter-district modelling, and absence of vegetation-index supervision—and propose concrete mitigation pathways in the Discussion. Full article

Rockfall events are significant natural hazards on fractured rock cliffs, often driven by environmental forcing, including thermal variations that induce stress and fatigue in rocks. This study presents the first application of Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GB-InSAR) for high-resolution monitoring of sub-millimeter thermally induced displacements on a rock slope. An eight-day pilot experiment conducted at the La Cornalle molasse cliff (Vaud, Switzerland) revealed cyclic displacement signals with a clear 24 h periodicity, identified through Fourier and wavelet analyses, with a mean amplitude of 5 × 10⁻⁴ m. Simultaneously, infrared thermography (IRT) and a weather station recorded rock surface and air temperature variations, allowing a first estimation of the time lag between thermal forcing and mechanical response, with delays of 1–8 h relative to air temperature and 1–6 h relative to solar radiation. An analytical deformation model based on thermal diffusion predicts a daily displacement amplitude of 4.2 × 10⁻⁵ m, highlighting a significant difference with GB-InSAR observations and emphasizing the influence of structural complexity and thermo-hydro-mechanical processes in rock slopes. These results demonstrate the capability of combined high-resolution remote sensing techniques to quantify thermo-mechanical behavior in rock masses and provide a methodological framework for future investigations of rockfall-prone slopes. Full article

Climate-driven intensification of pluvial and fluvial flooding increasingly challenges lowland cities in Central Europe, while conventional protection and land-use controls offer limited flexibility under growing hydrological variability. A planning-oriented framework is developed and tested to integrate hydro-adaptive housing into climate-resilient urban development using three typologies: elevated foundations, amphibious dwellings and modular floating platforms. The framework links hazard profiles and site-enabling conditions to typology selection and considers supporting blue–green measures within the broader adaptation context. It is applied to three flood-prone settings in northern Poland representing a coastal delta, a river confluence and a lower-river terrace. The methodology combines GIS-based hazard mapping; one-dimensional unsteady-flow HEC-RAS simulations for 50-, 100- and 500-year design events; and parametric structural modelling in Rhino–Grasshopper. Performance is assessed using maximum inundation depth, surface-water retention time, and a probabilistic building damage index. Amphibious dwellings reduce modelled 100-year flood damage by 62% relative to slab-on-grade construction, while modular floating platforms maintain habitability under water-level rises exceeding 5.0 m. In addition, bioretention and blue–green corridors reduce retention time by 18–31%. The results provide a planning-oriented decision logic for expanding adaptive housing options in flood-prone lowland settings under increasing hydrological variability. Full article

In landslide-prone areas, spatial gaps in InSAR-derived deformation maps caused by incomplete SAR coverage hinder continuous surface deformation assessment and limit reliable landslide analysis. To address this problem, we propose an explainable AI (XAI) framework that integrates SBAS-InSAR, ensemble machine learning, and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to estimate surface deformation in SAR-scarce regions. Geological and engineering factors, including protective measures, distance to roads, and land use, were combined with remote sensing and field data to build a comprehensive dataset. Four ensemble models (LightGBM, XGBoost, Random Forest, and CatBoost) were trained and evaluated, with XGBoost achieving the best performance (R² = 0.816, RMSE = 6.85 mm, MAE = 4.27 mm). Validation against two GNSS benchmarks confirmed sub-millimeter accuracy (0.6 mm and 0.3 mm). Both XGBoost and CatBoost delineated continuous deformation patterns consistent with field-observed damage. SHAP analysis provided model interpretability, highlighting elevation and human-engineering factors as key drivers: areas farther from roads and under cultivation were more prone to downslope movement, while damaged protective works exhibited greater deformation. By coupling InSAR with XAI, this study achieves accurate and interpretable surface deformation estimation in data-scarce regions, advancing landslide assessment and early warning applications. Full article

Secondary aluminum dross (SAD) is classified as hazardous waste (HW48) due to its content of toxic (e.g., heavy metals, fluorides) and highly reactive phases (e.g., aluminum nitride, AlN). This review systematically synthesizes the sources, heterogeneous composition, and environmental risks of SAD, and critically evaluates state-of-the-art hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical detoxification and resource-utilization technologies. Comparative, mechanism-oriented analyses are used to elucidate the respective advantages, limitations, and scalability of wet versus thermal routes. Particular emphasis is placed on the migration, transformation, and ultimate fate of key hazardous species (AlN, fluorides, chlorides, and heavy metals) during treatment and product valorization. An integrated hydro–pyro nexus is conceptualized as synergistic hybrid processing that transcends the trade-offs between efficiency, energy consumption, and product purity that currently limit standalone technologies. Emerging hybrid process concepts, advanced additives, and circular-economy-oriented product pathways are evaluated to address current technological bottlenecks. Finally, critical knowledge gaps and research priorities are identified to accelerate safe, low-carbon, and high-value utilization of SAD. Full article

The Landslide susceptibility assessment in complex mountainous terrain is frequently limited by static modelling frameworks that inadequately capture nonlinear deformation characteristics and temporally evolving hazard processes. To bridge this gap, a continuous-time dynamic assessment framework is proposed for Shazhou Town, Sichuan Province, integrating slowly moving scatterogram interferometric radar (S(BAS-InSAR))-derived deformation time series with Liquid Neural Networks (LNN). By incorporating a liquid time-constant architecture, the model accommodates irregular temporal sampling and captures non-stationary environmental responses through adaptive multimodal feature fusion. Analysis of long-term SBAS-InSAR observations (January 2021–May 2025) reveals distinctive deformation patterns, identifying eight active zones with maximum annual displacement rates of 107 mm yr⁻¹ and cumulative subsidence of 535.7 mm, which serve as critical dynamic inputs for the susceptibility model. Comparative experiments demonstrate that the LNN framework outperforms benchmark models (including LSTM, GRU, Random Forest, and SVM), achieving a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.95 and an RMSE of 0.50. Furthermore, multi-temporal validation against 189 historical landslide records (2008–2025) confirms the model’s robustness, yielding a 91.5% capture rate within high-susceptibility zones. Interpretability analyses via SHAP and Layer-wise relevance propagation identify rainfall and vegetation cover as dominant dynamic controls, while characterising a distinct slope threshold effect at approximately 20°. These findings demonstrate that explicit continuous-time neural modelling enables physically consistent representation of irregular satellite acquisition intervals and delayed hydro-mechanical responses, thereby advancing landslide susceptibility assessment from static spatial classification toward dynamic state evolution inference under asynchronous Earth observation data streams. Full article

This study examines the hydro-sedimentological–radioecological controls governing the distribution of natural (K-40, Ra-226, Th-232) and anthropogenic (Cs-137) radionuclides in surface sediments of the western Black Sea shelf. Activity concentrations were determined by high-resolution gamma spectrometry, and radiological indices—including radium equivalent activity (Ra_eq), external hazard index (H_ex), and annual effective dose (AED)—were calculated to evaluate environmental safety. All indices remained well below internationally accepted thresholds, confirming the absence of radiological hazard in both coastal and offshore settings. Strong correlations between Ra-226 and Th-232 indicate dominant lithogenic control of natural radionuclides, whereas Cs-137 exhibits geochemical decoupling consistent with its behavior. A significant relationship between the fine-grained sediment fraction (<63 µm) and Cs-137 activity highlights the grain size effect, with offshore depositional zones acting as sediment-focusing areas where Cs-137 and excess Pb-210 co-accumulate under low-energy hydrodynamic conditions. Despite localized offshore enrichment, dose contribution analysis shows that natural radionuclides dominate the absorbed-dose budget, while Cs-137 contributes only marginally. Spatial predictive modeling using Artificial Neural Networks, validated under a Spatial Leave-One-Group-Out framework, yielded moderate generalization capacity (R² = 0.61 for Ra-226; R² = 0.41 for Cs-137), reflecting smoother spatial gradients of lithogenic radionuclides than heterogeneous radiocesium deposition. Furthermore, Machine Learning algorithms provided significant analytical value: a Random Forest (RF) model successfully classified environments (nearshore/shelf/depositional basin) based on distinct radionuclide signatures. At the same time, an optimized Artificial Neural Network (ANN-GA) enabled the nonlinear reconstruction of radiometric–granulometric patterns to identify local anomalies. The results show that radionuclide distributions are primarily structured by sediment provenance, grain size sorting, and hydrodynamic energy gradients rather than ongoing anthropogenic inputs. Full article

Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, together with altered soil saturation dynamics, have significantly increased the occurrence of shallow landslides. These processes are closely linked to climate change and increasingly affect mountainous and hilly regions worldwide, where rainfall-induced pore pressure variations and transient infiltration govern slope instability. Despite growing recognition of climate-driven slope failures, most conventional geomechanical analyses still rely on static assumptions and simplified boundary conditions, which are insufficient to capture the pronounced temporal variability of hydro-climatic forcing. To address this gap, this study introduces a conceptual and methodological framework for a proactive landslide cadaster, developed within the Climate Adaptive Resilience Evaluation (CARE) framework. Rather than serving as a static inventory of past events, the proposed cadaster functions as a structured, updatable repository of climate–geomechanical parameters that directly support advanced landslide analyses. The core innovation lies in the formalization of the climate–geomechanical interface, which enables the transformation of climatic and hydrological variables into parameters directly applicable in geomechanical modeling. These parameters encompass climatic, hydrological, geomechanical, and thermo-hydraulic processes and are assigned to spatially referenced locations, complemented by documented landslide occurrences. Their spatial distribution forms a network of reference points that allows interpolation, continuous updating, and reuse across multiple analyses. In this way, the cadaster becomes a proactive, process-based data infrastructure, serving as the foundational input for scenario-based landslide susceptibility, hazard, and risk assessments within the CARE analytical workflow. The conceptual framework is illustrated through an example from Slovenia, focusing on the Visole area near Maribor, where selected data types and workflow steps are presented for demonstration purposes. Full article

Global climate warming has increased the risk of glacial lake outburst debris flows (GLODFs) in high mountain regions. It is characterized by frequent and clustered occurrences, particularly in the Himalayan region, and represents an inescapable challenge for high mountain areas in the future. GLODF susceptibility assessment is critical to risk mitigation but remains a challenge owing to its complex triggering mechanisms and watershed structure. GLODF is a complex system failure process, including the failure probabilities of multiple glacial lakes in a watershed, the complex flow path of flood, the transition probability from flood to debris flow, and the overlapping of debris flows formed in different branches in the watershed. Therefore, multiple trigger factors, hazard sources and flow paths should be considered in the assessment of susceptibility to GLODFs. In this study, a systematic approach and mapping for GLODF susceptibility assessment are proposed based on the theory of system failure analysis. The main steps include: (1) identification and classification of the potential hazard sources in the target watershed; (2) arrangement of the flow path and abstraction of the key-node diagram; (3) establishment of the system failure structure of a GLODF; and (4) predisposing factor analysis and susceptibility assessment. Moreover, the predisposing indexes of GLODF susceptibility assessment are proposed, combining the main factors affecting both glacial lake outbursts and subsequent debris flows. The proposed model was applied in the Congduipu River basin, Nyalam, Tibet, China, which has more than 6 glacial lakes and 11 gullies, with an area of 366 km², and encountered more than four GLODFs in recent years. The results show that there are one very high-susceptibility glacial lake, two high-susceptibility glacial lakes, and gullies that are in series with high-susceptibility glacial lakes that are mostly medium–highly susceptible to glacial outbursts. The results were verified by historical records and field investigations in the Congduipu River basin. This method is applicable to quickly evaluate the susceptibility to GLODFs at the watershed and regional scales with multiple glacial lakes and gullies. Full article