Search Results (13,134)

Landslides are among the most common and destructive geological hazards in complex mountainous regions. Developing accurate and interpretable susceptibility assessment models is important for regional geological hazard prevention and spatial safety management. To address the limitations of traditional machine learning models in processing tabular geoscience data with limited samples and complex nonlinear relationships, this study took Qingchuan County, Sichuan Province, as the study area and introduced the Tabular Prior-data Fitted Network (TabPFN) for landslide susceptibility assessment. Its performance was systematically compared with four commonly used models: Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). An evaluation system was built using 12 conditioning factors, including elevation, lithology, and distance to roads (DTR). The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was further used to identify the contributions and effects of the main controlling factors. The results showed that TabPFN achieved the highest observed predictive performance among the evaluated models, with an AUC of 0.7834, showing higher observed performance than traditional models such as LR, SVM, RF, and XGBoost, indicating its strong ability to capture nonlinear relationships and good applicability under limited sample conditions. SHAP analysis further indicated that elevation, lithology, and distance to roads were the main controlling factors influencing the model predictions. This study demonstrates the applicability of TabPFN for landslide susceptibility assessment in complex mountainous regions and provides a new methodological reference for intelligent geological hazard prediction and refined regional risk management under limited data conditions. Full article

Compound hot–humid events are placing increasing pressure on urban health and land-use governance as climate warming and urban expansion continue. This study examined urban built-up areas in 21 prefecture-level cities and prefectures of Sichuan Province for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2024. Using the IPCC hazard–exposure–vulnerability framework, ERA5-Land, MODIS land-cover, GHSL population, and socioeconomic data were combined to construct the Humid Heat Hazard Index (HI), Population-Density Exposure Index (EI), Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index (VI), and Comprehensive Urban Heat–Humidity Risk Index (HHRI). Contribution decomposition, LISA, and standard deviation ellipse analysis were then used to examine risk changes and spatial patterns. The mean HHRI decreased from 0.42 to 0.24, but rebounds appeared in 2010 and 2024. HI varied strongly among years and drove short-term risk changes, EI declined continuously, and VI dropped from 0.87 to 0.30, making it the main factor behind long-term risk reduction. Higher-risk areas were mainly located in southern Sichuan, southeastern Sichuan, and the central-eastern Sichuan Basin. LISA results showed high-risk clusters in basin cities and low-risk clusters on the western Sichuan Plateau. The standard deviation ellipse remained mostly within the basin and followed the basin urban belt. Future adaptation should combine public-service improvement with heat warnings, cooling services, and emergency preparedness. Full article

Background and Objectives: Systemic inflammation, nutritional status, and host immune response play pivotal roles in cancer progression and patient prognosis. The C-reactive protein–albumin–lymphocyte (CALLY) index is a novel inflammation-based biomarker integrating these parameters. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of the preoperative CALLY index in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic head adenocarcinoma. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included 101 consecutive patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy with curative intent for histopathologically confirmed pancreatic head adenocarcinoma at Çukurova University Faculty of Medicine between 2010 and 2021. Demographic, clinicopathological, perioperative, and survival data were analyzed. The CALLY index was calculated using preoperative serum C-reactive protein, albumin, and lymphocyte levels, and the optimal cutoff value was determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: Using an optimal cutoff value of 1.38, patients were categorized into low (n = 58) and high (n = 43) CALLY index groups. Patients with a low CALLY index experienced significantly higher rates of intraoperative and postoperative complications, surgical site infection, reoperation, unplanned hospital readmissions, and 30- and 90-day mortality (all p < 0.05). Moreover, the low CALLY index group demonstrated significantly poorer overall survival than the high CALLY index group (p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for overall mortality yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.701 (95% CI, 0.591–0.811). On multivariable Cox regression, a low CALLY index remained an independent predictor of poorer overall survival (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.45; 95% CI, 1.47–4.08; p < 0.001) after adjustment for age, tumor size, lymph node status, resection margin, and differentiation. On multivariable logistic regression, a low CALLY index was independently associated with surgical site infection (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 11.5; 95% CI, 3.9–34.2; p < 0.001) and overall postoperative morbidity (aOR, 5.3; 95% CI, 2.0–14.0; p < 0.001). Conclusions: The preoperative C-reactive protein–albumin–lymphocyte (CALLY) index is a simple, inexpensive, and readily available biomarker with significant prognostic value in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic head adenocarcinoma. A low CALLY index was associated with poorer overall survival and increased postoperative morbidity and mortality. The CALLY index may serve as a practical tool for preoperative risk stratification and prognostic assessment. However, prospective multicenter studies are warranted to validate standardized cutoff values and further establish its clinical applicability. Full article

Background/Objectives: Radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) is the standard of care for high-risk upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) but causes permanent renal decline, often disqualifying patients from essential cisplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy. Segmental ureteral resection (SUR) preserves renal function, but its safety in high-risk patients remains fiercely debated due to historical treatment selection biases and a lack of competing risk adjustments. We aimed to compare long-term oncological outcomes and postoperative renal function preservation between SUR and RNU for high-risk UTUC strictly localized to the ureter. Methods: Retrospective data from 859 patients (783 RNU, 76 SUR) with high-risk ureteral UTUC (high-grade or pathologic T2–T4) were analyzed from a 21-hospital nationwide database. Propensity score overlap weighting was implemented to achieve covariate balance. Overall survival (OS) was assessed via Cox proportional hazards regression, whereas cancer-specific survival (CSS), metastasis-free survival (MFS), and local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) were evaluated using multivariable Fine–Gray subdistribution hazard models to robustly account for the competing risk of non-cancer mortality. Results: Overlap weighting achieved excellent baseline comparability with an effective sample size of 429.5 patients per cohort. Weighted analyses demonstrated comparable long-term trajectories between SUR and RNU for OS (p = 0.62), CSS (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.94, p = 0.835), and MFS (HR: 0.88, p = 0.664). The Fine–Gray model confirmed that the surgical approach was not a significant independent predictor of local recurrence (HR: 0.74, p = 0.351). Crucially, the SUR group demonstrated a significantly lower renal function decline both at 1 month (−0.11 vs. −10.58 mL/min/1.73 m², p < 0.001) and through final clinical follow-up (−5.33 vs. −12.49 mL/min/1.73 m², p = 0.001). Conclusions: For meticulously selected patients with high-risk ureteral UTUC, SUR provides equivalent oncological control and survival outcomes to standard RNU. Crucially, this kidney-sparing approach significantly preserves postoperative renal function, safeguarding the physiological reserve required for patients to maintain eligibility for optimal subsequent systemic adjuvant therapies. Full article

Accurate rainfall information is essential for water-related hazard assessment in mountainous regions, where complex terrain and sparse gauge networks limit monitoring reliability. This study evaluated long-term rainfall characteristics and the performance of three satellite precipitation products—CHIRPS, GPM IMERG, and GSMaP—along the National Highway 6 corridor in northern Vietnam. Daily gauge observations from 11 meteorological stations with station-dependent records between 1961 and 2024 were used to characterize rainfall variability and heavy-rainfall frequency. Matched gauge–satellite records from 2001 to 2024 were evaluated using continuous statistical indicators, contingency-table metrics, empirical cumulative distribution functions, and percentile-based analysis. Data from 2025 were additionally examined as an extreme-rainfall case study, supplemented by visual gauge–satellite comparisons; however, these data were not used as an independent satellite-validation period. The long-term gauge records showed marked spatial variability in rainfall magnitude and threshold-exceedance frequency. In 2025, all 11 stations recorded daily rainfall exceeding 50 mm, while eight stations recorded events exceeding 100 mm. Satellite-product performance varied substantially among stations, rainfall thresholds, and evaluation metrics, and no product was uniformly superior. At the 100 mm/day threshold, the probability of detection ranged from 0.024 to 0.276, whereas the false alarm ratio ranged from 0.781 to 0.916. Upper-tail analysis showed contrasting product-specific behavior: at the 99th percentile, CHIRPS and GPM IMERG underestimated gauge rainfall by 20.95 and 8.95 mm, respectively, whereas GSMaP overestimated it by 35.57 mm. These findings demonstrate that local validation, uncertainty assessment, and application-specific adjustment are necessary before satellite precipitation products are used for flash-flood, rainfall-induced landslide, drainage-risk, and transportation-infrastructure assessments in mountainous regions. Full article

Background/Objectives: Tuberculous constrictive pericarditis (TCP) is characterized by “backward failure” and systemic venous congestion, leading to secondary multi-organ dysfunction. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 score assesses liver, renal, and nutritional status, yet its prognostic utility in TCP remains undefined. This study aimed to evaluate the preoperative MELD 3.0 score as a predictor of time to discharge in patients undergoing pericardiectomy for TCP. Methods: We analyzed 190 patients undergoing pericardiectomy for TCP between 2018 and 2024. The association between preoperative MELD 3.0 scores and time to discharge (ICU, postoperative, and total) was assessed using Fine–Gray competing risks regression to account for in-hospital mortality. Models were adjusted for age, albumin, and anti-tuberculosis therapy. Results: Each unit increase in MELD 3.0 was associated with higher operative mortality (OR 1.21, p = 0.013). In multivariable analysis, a high MELD 3.0 score (>median 9.6) was independently associated with a lower probability of discharge (i.e., delayed discharge) for total hospital stay (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] 0.606, 95% CI 0.453–0.811), postoperative stay (sHR 0.665), and ICU stay (sHR 0.658). Preoperative albumin was also a strong predictor of faster discharge. Conclusions: The preoperative MELD 3.0 score independently predicts delayed hospital discharge after pericardiectomy for TCP, even when accounting for mortality risk. It serves as a pragmatic tool for quantifying the systemic burden of congestion and stratifying perioperative risk. Full article

This paper presents an experimental study on the amount of formaldehyde released during a fire in apartments, focusing on the flooring most commonly used in Bulgaria. Formaldehyde is a potentially hazardous chemical known to be carcinogenic in large amounts. It often causes respiratory problems and skin irritation. People prone to allergies are especially sensitive to formaldehyde. These health risks depend on the duration and level of exposure. The experiment tested seven types of laminate samples and six types of natural parquet samples at three different combustion temperatures in a room. Each sample was placed in a muffle furnace, heated to the specified temperatures of 150, 250, and 400 °C, respectively. Full article

Quantifying the direction, strength and temporal clustering of cross-border financial risk contagion calls for methods that go beyond linear correlation. We suggest a two-layer framework that brings together transfer entropy and a multivariate Hawkes self-exciting point process on a time-varying, directed, weighted network. In the first layer, one-to-one transfer entropies of sovereign credit default swap spreads are estimated with a bias-corrected k nearest neighbour estimator, and this step detects nonlinear and directional information transfer between spreads. The second layer is a multivariate Hawkes process that models how extreme loss events arrive and mutually excite one another across countries, and it gives an excitation intensity matrix, encoding the way a tail event in one country raises the likelihood of an instantaneous hazard occurring in another. By merging these two layers, we obtain a composite, directed, weighted adjacency matrix in which the weights of the edges reflect both information flow and event clustering. We introduce a network-level contagion intensity index and split it into direct, indirect and feedback terms using the graph Laplacian spectrum. Von Neumann graph entropy together with the spectral gap ratio serve as entropy-based measures of the complexity and fragility of the evolving network. We validate the choice of Shannon-type entropy through a Tsallis q-sensitivity analysis, and we verify the nonlinear dependence structure of the data using BDS tests and maximal Lyapunov exponent estimates. Three empirical findings emerge from analysing 20 sovereign CDS markets from January 2015 to December 2025: (i) directional risk spillover signals derived based on transfer entropy are more timely than those derived from variance decomposition; (ii) the Hawkes excitation component amplifies measured contagion intensity by 35 to 58 percent during the COVID-19 shock and the 2022 European energy crisis relative to a transfer-entropy-only baseline; (iii) von Neumann graph entropy reaches historically extreme values 7 to 12 trading days before the peak drawdown in a Global Sovereign Bond Index. These results hold across rolling window lengths, significance thresholds, alternative entropy functionals and alternative Hawkes kernels. Full article

Urban pluvial flood resilience relies not only on engineering defenses but also on effective behavioral coordination among local governments, property management companies (PMCs), and residents. Yet even when risks are recognized, preparedness often fails because costs are immediate and certain, whereas benefits are delayed and probabilistic. This study addresses this dilemma by integrating prospect theory into a tripartite evolutionary game model. We position PMCs as pivotal intermediaries whose maintenance decisions critically influence whether physical infrastructure can be translated into operational resilience. Simulation results show that actors initially remain inactive under uncertainty. Stable collaboration emerges only when government regulation, PMC maintenance, and resident participation reinforce one another. Equal-magnitude policy comparisons reveal an asymmetric policy effect: sufficiently strong penalties induce tripartite cooperation, whereas equivalent subsidies primarily improve PMC maintenance without sustaining resident engagement. Excessive post-disaster relief further weakens ex ante incentives by creating moral hazard. These findings advance community flood governance toward psychologically informed, actor-specific policy mixes, emphasizing clear responsibility allocation, targeted incentives, and conditional relief, to strengthen community-level climate adaptation and adaptive resilience under uncertainty. Full article

The hilly terrain at the western foot of the Wanda Mountains boasts intricate geological conditions, compounded by long-term mineral extraction and farming activities. The multi-sourced heavy metals stored within stream sediments create substantial obstacles to accurate source apportionment and targeted risk mitigation. In this work, stream sediment samples were collected across the study watershed to test concentrations of eight heavy metals: As, Cd, Cr, Ni, Cu, Pb, Hg and Zn. Pollution and ecological risk assessments were implemented via the pollution load index (PLI), geo-accumulation index (I_geo) and potential ecological risk index (RI). Kriging interpolation was utilized to visualize and interpret the spatial variation patterns of heavy metals. Combined correlation analysis, principal component analysis (PCA) and the Absolute Principal Component Scores–Multiple Linear Regression (APCS-MLR) receptor model were adopted to qualitatively and quantitatively distinguish pollution endmembers of heavy metals. The main results are as follows: Cr, Cd, Pb and As show significant enrichment, whereas Ni, Cu, Zn and Hg appear depleted; all measured heavy metals present strong spatial variability. Weathering of basic bedrocks governs the widespread high-value zones of Cr, Ni, Cu and Zn. Patchy enrichment of Pb, As and Cd is concentrated in river valley farmlands, with no continuous anomalous zones detected for Hg. The watershed as a whole suffers mild contamination and low potential ecological risk, with only sampling points surrounding mines and agricultural lands experiencing moderate-to-severe pollution and medium ecological hazards. Three source endmembers are identified in the region: a natural geogenic endmember (Cr, Ni, Co, etc.), a mixed mining-associated anthropogenic endmember (Zn, Hg, Cu, Cd), and an agricultural non-point endmember (Pb, As, Sb). Quantitative APCS-MLR calculations confirm that mining disturbances serve as the predominant anthropogenic input for Zn, Hg, Cu and Cd; agricultural practices dominate the accumulation of As and Pb; and geogenic contributions stay marginal for all elements. This study corroborates that regional lithology sets the natural geochemical baseline of heavy metals, while anthropogenic interferences function as the primary driver of localized pollution anomalies. The conclusions can deliver theoretical support for heavy metal pollution remediation in similar hilly watersheds throughout Northeast China. Full article

Vineyards and wineries generate seasonal, wet and compositionally variable side-streams whose safe use is constrained by rapid spoilage, contaminants, fragmented regulation and scale. This EU-focused structured narrative review synthesised 90 scientific and official sources and proposes an integrated decision framework rather than another catalogue of valorisation routes. The framework applies a non-compensatory sequence: characterise and stabilise the batch, test route-specific hazards, assign evidence-level and technology readiness, verify legal eligibility, define a safe fallback, and only then compare material flows, environmental burdens and risk-adjusted economics. Current implementation evidence is strongest for controlled composting, conventional wastewater treatment, anaerobic digestion and selected grape-seed oil, polyphenol and heat-integrated biochar operations; clinical, plant-protection and several novel-extract claims remain product- and context-specific. Illustrative ENPV cases show that high-value extraction can offer greater upside but lower robustness than compost/biochar when moisture, transport, rejection and price uncertainty are included. The framework provides an auditable basis for pilot design, regional cooperation and data collection, while explicitly requiring industrial and multi-season validation before investment or product approval. Full article

Background/Objectives: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous syndrome with substantial variability in clinical progression and survival. Although neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio has been widely studied, evidence regarding neutrophil-to-monocyte plus lymphocyte ratio (NMLR) remains limited. This study evaluated whether baseline peripheral blood neutrophil-to-monocyte plus lymphocyte ratio (NMLR), a composite marker of systemic inflammation, was independently associated with long-term all-cause mortality in patients with COPD managed in primary care. Methods: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study using electronic health records from the Lleida Health Region (Spain) between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2023. Patients with spirometry-confirmed COPD and available baseline complete blood counts were included. Baseline NMLR was calculated as (absolute neutrophil count + absolute monocyte count)/absolute lymphocyte count using the first valid blood sample obtained after cohort entry. Patients were categorized into NMLR quartiles. Associations with all-cause mortality were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, lung function, and baseline comorbidity burden. Results: A total of 2644 patients were included, contributing 19,231 person-years of follow-up. During a median follow-up of 8.8 years, 1085 deaths occurred. Mortality increased progressively across NMLR quartiles, from 28.3% in the lowest quartile to 60.2% in the highest quartile. In fully adjusted analyses, patients in the highest quartile had higher all-cause mortality than those in the lowest quartile (hazard ratio [HR] 2.00; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.66–2.40; p < 0.001). When modeled continuously, each doubling of baseline NMLR was associated with a 34% increase in mortality risk (HR 1.34; 95% CI 1.26–1.42). Conclusions: Elevated baseline NMLR was independently associated with increased long-term mortality in COPD. As an inexpensive and routinely available inflammatory biomarker, NMLR may improve mortality risk stratification and support future evaluation of risk-stratified follow-up strategies in primary care. External validation is required before implementation in routine clinical practice. Full article

Rapid and reliable crack-based visual damage detection after earthquakes is crucial for safe and effective disaster response. Manual inspections are often slow and hazardous for engineers in unstable structures. This study proposes a quadrupedal robotic inspection system for rapid post-earthquake crack-based visual damage detection in reinforced concrete structures. A Unitree Go2 robot equipped with an Intel RealSense D435i RGB-D camera collected a dataset of 3255 annotated crack images from both field and public sources. The YOLOv8n model, trained and deployed on an NVIDIA Jetson AGX Xavier, demonstrated high detection performance in laboratory tests on reinforced concrete specimens, with precision, recall, and mAP@50 values all exceeding 85%. The system provides fast, accurate, and automated structural health assessments, reducing human risk and improving inspection efficiency in hazardous post-disaster environments. Future work will focus on expanding damage detection capabilities and real-world deployment. Full article

Background: The role of primary tumor resection (PTR) in patients with de novo stage IV colorectal cancer remains controversial, particularly in the context of patient selection and tumor biology. This study aimed to evaluate the association between PTR and survival outcomes and to identify clinical, molecular, and inflammatory-nutritional prognostic factors in patients with de novo stage IV colorectal cancer. Methods: Medical records of 204 patients with de novo stage IV colorectal adenocarcinoma treated at Ankara Etlik City Hospital from December 2022 to December 2025 were reviewed retrospectively. Patients were grouped according to PTR status. Baseline clinicopathological features, molecular tumor profile, metastatic disease extent, treatment characteristics, and inflammatory-nutritional markers were recorded. Survival outcomes were assessed in terms of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) using the Kaplan–Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression models, as well as 1:1 propensity score matching and sensitivity analyses. Results: PTR was performed in 114 patients (55.9%), while 90 patients (44.1%) did not undergo PTR. Patients who underwent PTR were younger, had better Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, and more frequently had single-organ metastatic disease. In the unmatched cohort, patients who underwent PTR had longer median PFS and OS than those without PTR (15.88 vs. 11.03 months and 16.14 vs. 11.54 months, respectively; both log-rank p < 0.001). In the adjusted Cox models, PTR corresponded to lower risks of progression (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.50; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.34–0.74; p < 0.001) and death (HR: 0.48; 95% CI: 0.30–0.77; p = 0.002), whereas BRAF mutation showed higher risks of progression (HR: 3.00; 95% CI: 1.70–5.29; p < 0.001) and death (HR: 3.42; 95% CI: 1.83–6.38; p < 0.001). In the propensity score–matched cohort comprising 50 matched pairs, PTR remained associated with a lower risk of progression or death (HR: 0.59; 95% CI: 0.40–0.87; p = 0.007), whereas its association with OS was not statistically significant (HR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.42–1.13; p = 0.141). Sensitivity analyses generally yielded estimates favoring PTR, although the statistical significance of the association with OS varied across analyses. Patients with higher prognostic nutritional index (PNI) values showed more favorable survival outcomes. Conclusions: In this retrospective cohort, PTR was consistently associated with longer PFS, whereas its association with OS was less robust across the adjusted analyses. Because these patients had a more favorable baseline profile, these associations should be viewed with caution and in relation to patient selection. BRAF mutation and PNI emerged as important prognostic factors, supporting a multidimensional approach to survival assessment that incorporates metastatic disease burden, tumor biology, and inflammatory-nutritional status. Full article

Methane emissions from coal mines pose significant environmental and operational challenges. Methane can be released from coal seams and surrounding rock layers as a result of mining operations. These emissions pose environmental risks and can lead to fire and explosion hazards. Therefore, reducing coal mine methane emissions is essential for both protecting miners’ safety and cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, capturing methane before it escapes into the atmosphere can be economically beneficial and used as a valuable energy source. This study proposes an integrated approach that combines advanced methane capture and hydrogen production technologies to enhance both environmental performance and energy recovery in coal mining operations. By combining methane capture with hydrogen production, the study presents a practical solution for lowering greenhouse gas emissions in the coal sector. This strategy promotes the adoption of low-carbon energy sources and offers a sustainable path forward for coal-dependent regions facing decarbonization challenges. A scenario-based techno-economic analysis is presented, including investment and operating costs, hydrogen yield, energy generation potential, and greenhouse gas mitigation. Further research should focus on process optimization, the integration of carbon capture technologies, and the valorization of by-products to further reduce the environmental footprint. Full article