Search Results (163)

The global rise in urban-related health issues poses significant challenges to public health, particularly in cities facing socio-economic crises. In Lebanon, 70% of the population is experiencing financial hardship, and healthcare costs have surged by 172%, exacerbating the strain on medical services. Given these conditions, improving the quality and accessibility of green spaces offers a promising avenue for alleviating mental health issues in urban areas. This study investigates the psychological impact of nine urban public spaces in Beirut through a comprehensive survey methodology, involving 297 participants (locals and tourists) who rated these spaces using Likert-scale measures. The findings reveal location-specific barriers, with Saanayeh Park rated highest in quality and Martyr’s Square rated lowest. The analysis identifies facility quality as the most significant factor influencing space quality, contributing 73.6% to the overall assessment, while activity factors have a lesser impact. The study further highlights a moderate positive association (Spearman’s rho = 0.30) between public space quality and mental well-being in Beirut. This study employs a hybrid methodology combining Research for Design (RfD) and Research Through Designing (RTD). Empirical data informed spatial strategies, while iterative design served as a tool for generating context-specific knowledge. Design enhancements—such as sensory plantings, shading systems, and social nodes—aim to improve well-being through better public space quality. The proposed interventions support mental health, life satisfaction, climate resilience, and urban inclusivity. The findings offer actionable insights for cities facing public health and spatial equity challenges in crisis contexts. Full article

Global financial markets have experienced significant volatility during crises, particularly COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, prompting questions about how regional markets respond to such shocks. Previous research highlights the influence of crises on stock market volatility, focusing on individual events or global markets, but less is known about the comparative dynamics within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets. Our study investigated volatility and asymmetric behavior within GCC stock markets during both crises. Furthermore, the econometric model E-GARCH(1,1) was applied to the daily frequency data of financial stock market returns from 11 March 2020 to 31 July 2023. This study examined volatility fluctuation patterns and provides a comparative assessment of GCC stock markets’ behavior during crises. Our findings reveal varying degrees of market volatility across the region during the COVID-19 crisis, with Qatar and the UAE exhibiting the highest levels of volatility persistence. In contrast, the Russia–Ukraine conflict has had a distinct effect on GCC markets, with Oman exhibiting the highest volatility persistence and Kuwait having the lowest volatility persistence. This study provides significant insights for policymakers and investors in managing risk and enhancing market resilience during economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Full article

Under the international globalized environment, the impact of the financial crisis of 2008 and the recent financial effect of the COVID-19 economic recession have generated a new role for the state aimed at reducing vulnerability to a new financial shock. Cost analysis is currently an issue among public authorities, inhibiting enhanced productivity and the effectiveness and utility of public services and goods. This article aims to showcase that the basic priorities of a high degree of transparency and accountability of public spending are becoming more and more essential. The need for cost allocation is essential for states to be resilient under the current ‘spin’ of crises. Full article

The implications of digital finance for financial stability has come under serious scrutiny since the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). Empirical evidence on this nexus are somewhat inconsistent and ambiguous. This study therefore attributes this puzzle to multiple structural breaks (MSBs) which were long neglected by previous studies. Consequently, this study aims to identify possible MSBs in the digital finance–stability nexus and examine if its impact is consistent/weakened in the presence of MSBs in a sample of 41 developing African economies for the 2004–2023 periods. Results from the PCA index generation report that instability is more susceptible to bank crisis/Z-score. Again, the panel extension of BP98 MSBs detection identified three breaks with their confidence intervals overlapping the periods of the 2006–2011 GFC/subprime mortgage crises, the 2012–2016 Br-exit referendum and the 2017–2021 COVID 19 pandemic/Ukraine war. The quantile regression methodology also shows that these breaks weaken the impact of digital finance (i.e., mobile banking and internet banking) on financial stability, particularly for economies at lower quantiles of financial stability but with marginal effects for economies at higher quantiles. The study concludes that digital finance can stabilize the financial system of developing economies when shocks from structural breaks are controlled. Therefore, the study contributes to knowledge by developing a new econometric model for BP98 panel extension of MSBs detection, calibrating an index for financial stability and detecting valid break dates for three major breaks. Structural and financial development through policy coordination to forestall the effects of structural breaks were recommended. Full article

In the context of the globalization process, the interplay between geopolitical dynamics and international trade fluctuations has had significant effects on global economic and business stability. Recent crises, such as the US–China trade war, the invasion of Ukraine, and the COVID-19 pandemic, have highlighted how changes in the structure of international trade can amplify the risks of business failure and reshape global competitiveness. This study aims to analyze in depth the transmission of business failure risk within the global trade network by assessing the sensitivity of industrial sectors in different countries to disruptive/critical/significant events. Through the integration of data from sources such as the World Trade Organization, national customs, and international relations research centers, a quantitative, exploratory, and descriptive approach based on graph theory, random forest, multivariate regression models, and neural networks is developed. This quantitative system makes it possible to identify patterns of risk propagation and to evaluate the degree of vulnerability of each country according to its commercial and financial structure. The mechanisms that relate geopolitical factors, such as trade sanctions and international conflicts, with the oscillations in the global market are analyzed. This study not only contributes to our understanding of how the macroeconomic environment influences business survival, but also provides analytical tools for strategic decision making. By providing an empirical and theoretical framework for early risk identification, it brings a novel perspective to academia and business, facilitating better adaptation to an increasingly volatile and uncertain business environment. Full article

The evolving macroeconomic landscape, shaped by the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, poses significant challenges for economies worldwide. However, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries have demonstrated resilience and rapid recovery during crises, driven by a surge in consumption fueled by domestic credit and robust export growth supported by flexible exchange rates and adaptive monetary policies. Prior to EU accession, substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) during privatization and restructuring facilitated knowledge and technology transfers in CESEE economies. This study examines the interplay of exports, real exchange rates, GDP growth, FDI, inflation, domestic credit, and the human development index (HDI) in the CESEE region from 1995 to 2022, covering the transition period, EU accession, and major crises. Employing a panel ARDL model, we account for asymmetric effects of these variables on exports. The results reveal that GDP, FDI, inflation, domestic credit, and HDI significantly and positively influence exports, with HDI and GDP exerting the strongest effects, underscoring the pivotal roles of human capital and economic growth in enhancing export competitiveness. Conversely, real exchange rate depreciation negatively impacts exports, though non-price factors, such as product quality, mitigate this effect. These findings provide a robust basis for targeted policy measures to strengthen economic resilience and export performance in the CESEE region. Full article

In the aftermath of global financial crises and amid increasing complexity in banking operations, understanding and managing various types of risk—especially liquidity, credit, and solvency risks—has become a global concern for financial stability. This study addresses a critical gap in the literature by examining the dynamic interrelationships among these three types of risk in the context of emerging markets. Using data from 21 banks listed on the Iranian capital market from 2011 to 2023, we employ a Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) alongside panel impulse response analysis to assess both short- and long-term dynamics. Our results reveal that an increase in liquidity positively impacts bank solvency, while credit risk negatively affects solvency but does not significantly influence liquidity risk. These findings contribute to the theoretical understanding of systemic risk interactions in banking and provide practical insights for policymakers and financial institutions seeking to enhance risk management strategies in volatile market environments. Full article

This article presents an innovative methodology for enhancing statistical databases as reliable sources of information. The study leverages data from “Big Data of the Modern Global Economy: A Digital Platform for Data Mining—2020”, which serves as a digital tool designed to predict economic development at both global and national levels, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath. Utilizing a dataset focused on the G7 and BRICS nations as a case study, we assemble forecasts for several key indicators: the Digital Competitiveness Index, Global Innovation Index, Human Development Index, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Economic Growth Rate, GDP per Capita, Quality of Life Index, Happiness Index, and Sustainable Development Index for 2021. Additionally, we conducted a plan-fact analysis. The accuracy of the post-pandemic economic recovery forecast is validated through comparison with actual data. Furthermore, this research provides statistical analyses and forecasts to minimize uncertainty during crises, considering the interconnected nature of climate change and financial factors inherent in these crises. Full article

With the acceleration of globalization, the connections between emerging market economies are becoming increasingly intricate, making it crucial to understand the mechanisms of risk transmission. This study employs the transfer entropy model to analyze risk diffusion and network resilience across ten emerging market countries. The findings reveal that Brazil, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia are the primary risk exporters, while countries such as India, South Africa, and Indonesia predominantly act as risk receivers. The research highlights the profound impact of major events such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic on risk diffusion, with risk diffusion peaking during the pandemic. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of network resilience, suggesting that certain levels of noise and shocks can enhance resilience and improve network stability. While the global economy gradually recovered following the 2008 financial crisis, the post-pandemic recovery has been slower, with external shocks and noise presenting long-term challenges to network resilience. This study emphasizes the importance of understanding network resilience and risk diffusion mechanisms, offering new insights for managing risk transmission in future global economic crises. Full article

This study examines the interconnectedness of African stock markets during three major global crises: the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. We use daily stock index data from 2007 to 2023 for ten African countries and apply a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The results reveal that volatility connectedness among African markets intensified during all three crises, peaking during the COVID-19 pandemic followed by the 2008 GFC and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Short-term connectedness consistently exceeded long-term connectedness across all crises. South Africa and Egypt acted as dominant transmitters of volatility, highlighting their systemic importance, while Morocco showed increased influence during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings suggest that African markets are more globally integrated than previously assumed, making them vulnerable to external shocks. Policy implications include the need for stronger regional financial cooperation, the development of early warning systems, and enhanced intra-African investment to improve market resilience and reduce contagion risk. Full article

Supply chains, which have numerous participants, are exposed and vulnerable. In recent years, this has been evident in disruptions caused by circumstances that have changed the context, such as (1) the COVID-19 pandemic, (2) the Suez Canal blockade, and (3) the war in Ukraine. These circumstances caused disruptions in supply chains and surprised numerous participants in the international market, individual organizations, as well as states and entities around the world. This caused confusion and large financial losses for numerous global market participants and for people all around the world. The purpose of this paper is to design three original models, the implementation of which should significantly reduce the damage caused by disruptions in supply chains in future crises: (1) a model for individual organizations, (2) a national economy model, and (3) a global model. The authors applied methods of scientific cognition and analyzed three case studies from the recent past. The key finding is that by applying the models with four components (methods, measures, quality tools, and indicators), the resilience of supply chains increases the damage from disruptions in supply chains during future crises can be significantly reduced, and the quality of life of everyone on the planet will be less threatened. Full article

The development of hydropower projects is crucial to addressing Pakistan’s ongoing energy and financial crises. Despite the country’s abundant hydropower resources, particularly in the northern regions, these have not been adequately explored, while energy consumption and supply issues have persisted for the past two decades. Focusing on Sustainable Development Goal (SDG-7): “Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy”, this study aimed to assess the hydropower potential at suitable sites in the Upper Indus Basin (Pakistan) by integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDM). This study not only focused on estimating hydropower but also considered the environmental constraints at all sites by using the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) tool, which used the location and constraint criteria, along with benefit and cost criteria. The methodology combines technical evaluations (head and discharge) with environmental constraints to prioritize sustainable hydropower development. Key findings identify sites 17, 15, 16, 5, and 6 as the most promising locations, balancing energy generation with minimal environmental impact. This study provides a replicable framework for policymakers to harness hydropower resources responsibly, contributing to Pakistan’s energy security and aligning with global Sustainable Development Goals. This approach not only bridges the gap between technical feasibility and environmental sustainability but also offers a model for other regions facing similar energy challenges. Full article

In this work, Functional Data Analysis (FDA) is used to detect behavioral patterns in the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (BVC) in reaction to the global crises caused by COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. The oil price fluctuation curve is considered a covariate. The FDA’s distinctive ability is to represent stock values as smooth curves that evolve over time and provide new insights into the dynamics of the BVC. The methodology makes use of functional multivariate techniques applied to the smoothed curves of the closing prices of the main stocks of the BVC. The results show that the correlations of the oil curve with the average market curve change from almost null or low in the global period to extremely significant in time windows immediately after the beginnings of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, respectively. On the other hand, the velocity curves, which are used to evaluate the stock market volatility, show a pattern of synchronization of companies in the crisis periods. Furthermore, in these crisis periods, the companies in BVC showed a high synchronization with the Brent crude oil price. In conclusion, this work shows the usefulness of the FDA as a complement to time series analysis in the study of stock markets. The results of this research could be of interest to academic researchers, financial analysts, or institutions. Full article

This study examines the integrated impacts of cyberattacks, geopolitical, and financial market volatility on rare earth markets during the 2014–2024 period, using Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression and wavelet analysis. By bridging critical gaps in the literature, this research provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the compounded effects of emerging risks on market dynamics. The analysis includes key market indices (SOLLIT, PICK, SPGSIN, GSPTXGM, MVREMXTR, and XME), alongside green energy prices, to capture cross-market dependencies. The findings reveal that financial volatility exerts the most persistent long-term influence, while geopolitical events, such as the US-China trade tensions and the Ukraine conflict, trigger significant market disruptions. Cyberattacks, although episodic, exacerbate short-term volatility, especially during global crises. Rising green energy prices further amplify vulnerabilities in supply chains, underscoring the interconnectedness of rare earth markets and the sustainable energy transition. This research provides actionable insights for integrated risk management strategies, emphasizing supply chain diversification, enhanced cybersecurity, and international cooperation to ensure market stability and resilience in the energy transition. Full article

The global economy was profoundly impacted by the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, with the hotel industry being among the sectors most severely affected. This study explores the relationship between environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance and financial performance during the pandemic, focusing on 35 of the world’s largest hotel companies. A structured methodology was employed to assess short-term financial resilience using the shock depth (SD) and recovery rate (RR) indicators and long-term performance through the value-added weekly index (VAWI) and K-ratio. The findings of this study indicated that faster recovery was associated with greater capitalization. Furthermore, analysis of ESG scores indicated a median increase from 2019 to 2022, particularly in the figures of the environmental component. Despite these increases, pre-pandemic ESG scores demonstrated limited influence on short-term financial performance, though a correlation was observed between governance scores (as ESG score subscores) and long-term K-ratios. This finding suggests potential trade-offs between improving financial performance and maintaining governance standards in the sense of ESG scores. This study points to the intricate interplay between ESG and financial metrics during systemic crises, providing valuable insights for risk management and strategic planning in the hospitality business. The implications of these findings extend to the enhancement of resilience and the alignment of ESG strategies with financial sustainability. Full article