Search Results (78)

Sustainable Development Reserves are organized units in the Amazon that are essential for the proper use and sustainable management of the region’s natural resources and for the livelihoods and economy of the local communities. This study aims to provide a climatic characterization of the Madeira River Sustainable Development Reserve (MSDR), offering scientific support to efforts to assess the feasibility of implementing adaptation measures to increase the resilience of isolated Amazon communities in the face of extreme climate events. Significant statistical analyses based on time series of observational and reanalysis climate data were employed to obtain a detailed diagnosis of local climate variability. The results show that monthly mean two-meter temperatures vary from 26.5 °C in February, the coolest month, to 28 °C in August, the warmest month. Monthly precipitation averages approximately 250 mm during the rainy season, from December until May. July and August are the driest months, August and September are the warmest months, and September and October are the months with the lowest river level. Cold spells were identified in July, and warm spells were identified between July and September, making this period critical for public health. Heavy precipitation events detected by the R80, Rx1day, and Rx5days indices show an increasing trend in frequency and intensity in recent years. The analyses indicated that the MSDR has no potential for wind-energy generation; however, photovoltaic energy production is viable throughout the year. Regarding the two major commercial crops and their resilience to thermal stress, the region presents suitable conditions for açaí palm cultivation, but Brazil nut production may be adversely affected by extreme drought and heat events. The results of this study may support research on adaptation strategies that includethe preservation of local traditions and natural resources to ensure sustainable development. Full article

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) and Marine cold spells (MCSs) are oceanic events characterized by prolonged periods of anomalously warm or cold sea surface temperatures, which pose significant ecological and socio-economic threats on a global scale. These extreme temperature events exhibit an asymmetric trend under ongoing climate change in recent decades: MHWs have increased markedly in both frequency and intensity, whereas MCSs have shown an overall decline. Among the potential drivers, mesoscale eddies play a critical role in modulating sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). Anticyclonic eddies (AEs) promote downwelling, generating positive SSTAs that potentially favor MHWs, while cyclonic eddies (CEs) enhance upwelling and negative anomalies that are potentially related to MCSs. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between mesoscale eddies and MHWs/MCSs using global satellite-derived datasets from 2010 to 2019. By analyzing the spatial overlap and intensity correlation between eddies and MHWs/MCSs, it is found that 12.2% of MHWs are accompanied by AEs, and 13.4% of MCSs by CEs, with a high degree of spatial containment where approximately 90.2% of MHW events are found within the mean eddy contour of AEs, and about 93.1% of MCS events fall inside the mean eddy contour of CEs. Stronger eddies tend to be associated with more intense MHWs/MCSs. This study provides new insights into the role of mesoscale eddies in regulating extreme oceanic temperature events, offering valuable information for future predictions in the context of climate change. Full article

Ornamental plants play a crucial role in the mitigation of urban heat islands. Recent decades have seen an increased frequency of abnormal climatic events like warm springs, but how these climatic events impact plant phenology in ornamental plants in urban areas is unclear. This study examines how climate fluctuations affect the flowering patterns (1963–2018) and thermal requirements of 28 woody ornamental species in Xi’an, a principal city in Central China. Years were classified as cold (<13.3 °C), normal (between 13.3 and 17.2 °C), or warm (>17.2 °C) based on March–May temperatures. The results show that the first flowering dates (FFDs) advanced by 10.63 days in warm years but were delayed by 6.14 days in cold years compared to normal years. Notably, thermal requirements (5 °C threshold) were 11.3% higher in warm years (343.05 vs. 308.09 °C days) and 9.4% lower in cold years (279.19 °C days), likely due to reduced winter chilling accumulation in warm conditions. While thermal time models accurately predicted FFDs in normal years (error: 0.33–1.37 days), they showed systematic biases in abnormal years—overestimating advancement by 1.56 days in warm years and delays by 3.42 days in cold years. These findings highlight that the current phenological models assuming fixed thermal thresholds may significantly mispredict flowering times under climate variability. Our results emphasize the need to incorporate dynamic thermal requirements and chilling effects when forecasting urban plant responses to climate change, particularly for extreme climate scenarios. Full article

Extreme climatic conditions characterized by drastic temperature fluctuations exacerbate soil erosion through intensified thermo-mechanical weathering processes. Loess-covered regions are particularly vulnerable to such conditions because of the inherent thermo-sensitivity of loess. A comprehensive investigation of mechanisms of thermo-mechanical weathering in loess under extreme temperature regimes holds critical importance for elucidating soil degradation patterns. It is also essential for formulating mitigation strategies in climate-sensitive loess terrains, especially given the increasing frequency of extreme weather events under global warming scenarios. This study employed integrated physical monitoring experiments and numerical modeling. The evolutionary patterns of temperature fields and corresponding thermal stress distributions in loess subjected to both heat shock (rapid heating) and cold shock (rapid cooling) conditions were systematically examined. The key findings are as follows: (1) Soil temperature variations demonstrate phase-lagged responses to ambient thermal variations during both shock scenarios, exhibiting distinct thermal inertia effects. (2) The spatial distribution pattern of thermal stress is predominantly governed by the temperature gradient within the soil matrix. (3) While the magnitude ranges of thermal stress remain comparable between shock types, their directional characteristics fundamentally differ; heat shocks induce surface compressive stresses and internal tensile stresses, whereas cold shocks generate inverse stress patterns. (4) Compared to heat shock, cold shocks trigger obvious surface degradation through tensile stress-induced failure of particle bonds. These mechanically weakened zones establish favorable conditions for subsequent erosion processes in loess landscapes. Full article

In the recent decades, an ongoing increase in maximum temperature during summer has been observed in Poland, especially in the central-southern and southeastern areas. This raises the vulnerability of these regions not only to heat waves and drought but also to floods. The potential effect of compound heat waves and extreme rainfall events may be more serious than the effects of these events occurring separately. This research is the first attempt in Poland to investigate whether the presence of a heat wave increases the likelihood of extreme rainfall events, if so, by how much, and whether this changes with warming. For this purpose, we used daily maximum temperature values and 6 h precipitation datasets from 44 meteorological stations in Poland for the 1966–2024 period. It was proven that compound heat wave and extreme rainfall events occurred in Poland with spatially differentiated frequency. They occurred the least frequently on the coast and the most frequently in southwestern, southeastern, and northeastern Poland. The extreme rainfall occurred most often between noon and midnight on the last heat wave day. During these hours, the likelihood of extreme rainfall is, on average, 3.5 times higher than that expected according to climatology norms. With warming, the frequency of days with these compound events increases at the rate of 1.22 days per decade, and the frequency of compound events increases at a rate of 3.75 events per decade. Although a detailed analysis of the mechanisms responsible for such events is planned for further research, the preliminary study revealed that in most cases, the approach of a cold front with a mesoscale thundercloud system was responsible for heat wave termination with extreme rainfall. Since we cannot prevent the growing number of heat waves or heavy precipitation events that terminate the heat wave events in Poland, the adaptation strategy needs to be implemented to meet the sustainable development goals regarding climate actions. This refers primarily to urban planning, agriculture (agroecosystems), social health, and well-being. Full article

Water utilities use a significant amount of electrical energy due to the rising demand for wastewater treatment driven by environmental and economic reasons. The growing demand for energy, rising energy costs, and the drive toward achieving net-zero emissions require a sustainable energy future for the water industry. This can be achieved by integrating onsite renewable energy sources (RESs), energy storage, demand management, and participation in demand response (DR) programs. This paper analyzes the energy profile and load flexibility of water utilities using a data-driven approach to reduce energy costs by leveraging RESs for regional water utilities. It also assesses the potential for DR participation across different types of water utilities, considering peak-load shifting and battery storage installations. Given the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, such as bushfires, heatwaves, droughts, and prolonged cold and wet season floods, regional water industries in Australia serve as a relevant case study of sectors already impacted by these challenges. First, the data characteristics across the water and energy components of regional water industries are analyzed. Next, barriers and challenges in data acquisition and processing in water industries are identified and recommendations are made for improving data coordination (interoperability) to enable the use of a single platform for identifying DR opportunities. Finally, the energy profile and load flexibility of regional water industries are examined to evaluate onsite generation and battery storage options for participating in DR operations. Operational data from four regional sites across two regional Australian water utilities are used in this study. Full article

Regular meteorological observations in Padua started in 1725 and have continued unbroken up to the present, making the series one of the longest in the world. Daily mean temperatures and precipitation amounts have recently been homogenized for the entire 1725–2024 period, making it possible to add new measurements without further work. Starting from the temperature series, the trends of cold and warm spells are investigated in this paper. The ongoing warming that started in the 1970s is extensively analyzed on the basis of the variability of the mean values and a magnitude index that captures both the duration and intensity of a spell and by investigating the frequency of extreme events by means of Intensity–Duration–Frequency curves. The periods with the greatest deviation from the climatological average are analyzed in detail: February 1740 and April 1755, the months with the largest negative and positive temperature anomalies, respectively, in the 300-year-long series. Moreover, the analysis of snow occurrences extracted from the original logs, together with the pressure observations from the long series of London and Uppsala, made it possible to evaluate the most typical synoptic situations leading to snow events in Padua for the whole period. Full article

This paper presents a study on the evolution of extreme temperatures in the Marche region, Central Italy. To this end, a complete dataset compiled using data collected from available thermometric stations over the years 1957–2019 based on minimum and maximum daily temperatures was selected. The yearly mean values of extreme temperature and relative climate indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were calculated, and a trend analysis was performed. The spatial distribution of the trends was assessed, and the variations in extreme temperatures in the medium–long term were considered by calculating mean values with respect to different climatological standard normals and decades. The analyzed parameters show that extreme heat events characterized by increasing intensity and frequency have occurred over the years, while cold weather events have decreased. A high percentage of stations recorded an increase in all indices related to daily maximum temperatures, and a simultaneous decline of those related to daily minimum values, under both nighttime and daytime conditions. This phenomenon characterizes the entire Marche region. A detailed analysis of the heat wave indices confirms an increasing trend, with a notable increase beginning in the early 1980s. Full article

This study aims to assess the short-term effects of extreme heat, cold, and air pollution episodes on excess mortality from natural causes in Luxembourg over 1998–2023. Using a high-resolution dataset from downscaled and bias-corrected temperature (ERA5) and air pollutant concentrations (EMEP MSC-W), weekly mortality p-scores were linked to environmental episodes. A distributional regression approach using a logistic distribution was applied to model the influence of environmental risks, capturing both central trends and extreme values of excess mortality. Results indicate that extreme heat, cold, and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) episodes significantly drive excess mortality. The estimated attributable age-standardized mortality rates are 2.8 deaths per 100,000/year for extreme heat (95% CI: [1.8, 3.8]), 1.1 for extreme cold (95% CI: [0.4, 1.8]), and 6.3 for PM_2.5 episodes (95% CI: [2.3, 10.3]). PM_2.5-related deaths have declined over time due to the reduced frequency of pollution episodes. The odds of extreme excess mortality increase by 1.93 times (95% CI: [1.52, 2.66]) per extreme heat day, 3.49 times (95% CI: [1.77, 7.56]) per extreme cold day, and 1.11 times (95% CI: [1.04, 1.19]) per PM_2.5 episode day. Indicators such as return levels and periods contextualize extreme mortality events, such as the p-scores observed during the 2003 heatwave and COVID-19 pandemic. These findings can guide public health emergency preparedness and underscore the potential of distributional modeling in assessing mortality risks associated with environmental exposures. Full article

The cloud system characteristics within satellite cloud imagery play a crucial role in the meteorological operational analysis of cold fronts, and integrating satellite cloud imagery into automated frontal identification schemes can provide valuable insights for accurately determining the position and morphology of cold fronts. This study introduces Cloud-DETR, a deep learning identification method that uses the DETR model with satellite cloud imagery, to identify cold fronts from extensive datasets. In the Cloud-DETR method, preprocessed satellite cloud imagery is used to generate training images, which are then put into the DETR model for cold front identification, achieving excellent results. The alignment between the Cloud-DETR cold fronts and weather systems during continuous periods and extreme weather events is assessed. The Cloud-DETR method exhibits high accuracy in both the position and morphology of cold fronts, ensuring stable identification performance. The high matching rate between the Cloud-DETR cold fronts and the manually identified ones in the test set, image dataset and labels from 2017 is verified. This indicates that the Cloud-DETR method can provide an accurate cold fronts dataset. The cold fronts dataset from 2005 to 2023 was obtained using the Cloud-DETR method. It was found that over the past 18 years, the frequency of cold fronts displays distinct seasonal patterns, with the highest occurrences observed during winter, particularly along the mid-latitude storm tracks extending from the east coast of East Asia to the Northwest Pacific. The methodology and findings presented in this study could help advance further research on the characteristics of cold front cloud systems based on long-term datasets. Full article

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) is crucial for global climate regulation and ecological equilibrium. However, the phenomenon of global climate warming has increased the frequency of extreme weather events on the QTP, exerting substantial effects on both regional and global ecological systems. This study utilized long-term series NDVI and extreme climate indices to comprehensively evaluate the impact of extreme climatic changes on diverse vegetation types within the QTP. A variety of analytical methodologies, including trend analysis, a Mann–Kendall test, correlation analysis, and random forest importance ranking, were employed in this study. These methodologies were applied to investigate the distribution patterns and variation trends of diverse vegetation types and extreme climate indices. This comprehensive approach facilitated a detailed analysis of the responses of different vegetation types to interannual variability under extreme climatic conditions and enabled the assessment of the impact of extreme climate indices on these vegetation types. The findings have the following implications: (1) Except for forests, the annual NDVI for overall vegetation, meadows, steppes, deserts, and alpine vegetation in the QTP exhibits a significant upward trend (p < 0.01). Notably, meadows and deserts demonstrate the highest growth rates at 0.007/10y, whereas the annual NDVI of forests is not statistically significant (p > 0.05). Substantial increases in vegetation were predominantly detected in the central and northeastern regions of the QTP, while significant decreases were mostly observed in the southeastern and western regions. The area exhibiting significant vegetation increase (38.71%) considerably surpasses that of the area with a significant decrease (14.24%). (2) There was a statistically significant reduction (p < 0.05) in the number of days associated with extreme cold temperature indices, including CSDI, DTR, FD, ID, TN10p, and TX10p. In contrast, indices related to extremely warm temperatures, such as GSL, WSDI, SU25, TN90p, TNn, TNx, TX90p, and TXx, exhibited a statistically significant increase (p < 0.01). The pronounced rise in minimum temperatures, reflected by fewer cold days, has notably contributed to climate warming. Although extreme precipitation events have become less frequent, their intensity has increased. Notable spatial variations in extreme precipitation were observed, although no consistent changing pattern emerged. (3) The annual NDVI for non-forest vegetation types showed a significant negative correlation with most extreme cold temperature indices and a significant positive correlation with extreme warm temperature indices. A significant positive correlation (p < 0.05) between annual NDVI and extreme precipitation indices is found only in steppe and desert ecosystems, with no such correlation observed in other vegetation types. Both correlation analysis and random forest methodologies underscore the impact of extreme climate indices on vegetation variations, with the random forest model exhibiting superior capability in capturing nonlinear relationships. In conclusion, global climate change is projected to result in a heightened frequency of extreme warm events. Although these conditions might temporarily enhance vegetation growth, they are also associated with numerous detrimental impacts. Therefore, it is imperative to enhance awareness and take proactive measures for early warning and prevention. Full article

The accurate and sub-daily identification of agricultural low-temperature disasters (LTDs) facilitates the understanding of their dynamic evolution, the evaluation of the characteristics of disaster events, and informs effective strategies aimed at disaster prevention and mitigation. In order to ensure the timely, precise, and comprehensive capture of disaster processes, we have developed a dynamic evaluation framework for winter wheat spring LTD in the Huang-Huai-Hai (HHH) region, driven by meteorological data. This framework consists of two primary components: a disaster classification module and a dynamic simulation-assessment module. Through disaster mechanisms and comprehensive statistical analysis, we have established the input features and structural framework of the classification module using a decision tree algorithm. The dynamic simulation evaluation module is based on our newly developed index for the cumulative hourly intensity of low-temperature stress (CHI) and its grade indicators. This index integrates the interaction between cold stress (low-temperature intensity, cooling amplitude, and duration) and mitigating conditions (air humidity) during the evolution process of LTD. Based on CHI, we found that as the intensity of low temperatures and the amplitude of cooling rise, along with an extended duration of stress and a reduction in relative humidity, the severity of spring LTDs in winter wheat get worse. The overall validation accuracy of the evaluation framework is 92.6%. High validation accuracy indicates that our newly established framework demonstrates significant efficacy in identifying LTDs and assessing grade. Through the analysis of the characteristics of the disaster process, spring LTDs affecting winter wheat are mainly mild, with frost identified as the primary category of LTD. The duration of freeze injury typically exceeds 24 h, while the duration of frost damage and cold damage is less than 24 h. From 1980 to 2022 in the HHH region, the frequency of spring freeze injury and frost damage on winter wheat showed an overall decreasing trend, with a particularly significant decrease in frost damage occurrences. Conversely, cold damage occurrences are on the rise. In addition, the duration of individual disaster events for the three categories of spring LTDs is decreasing, while both the average intensity and extremity of these events show increasing trends. This study has important practical value for the sub-daily scale evaluation of the spring LTD affecting winter wheat in the HHH region and serves as an effective guide for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as for the formulation of planting strategies. Full article

This study investigates the characteristics and intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events from January 1875 to December 2023, employing an advanced method for intensity determination based on various ENSO indices defined as a continuous five-month period with temperatures exceeding 0.5 °C for warm events or falling below −0.5 °C for cold events. A total of 40 warm and 41 cold events were identified, with further classification revealing seven extreme warm events and five extreme cold events. The analysis shows a positive skewness in frequency distribution, indicating a predominance of strong warm events. The primary mode of variability is found to be interannual oscillation in the 3–8 year range, with significant decadal oscillations in the 10–16 year range. This study highlights the importance of methodological rigor in evaluating ENSO dynamics, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of climate variability and offering a reliable framework for future research. Full article

Amid global climate change, recurrent drought events pose significant challenges to regional water resource management and the sustainability of socio-economic growth. Thus, understanding drought characteristics and regional development patterns is essential for effective drought monitoring, prediction, and the creation of robust adaptation strategies. Most prior research has analyzed drought events independently in spatial and temporal dimensions, often overlooking their dynamic nature. In this study, we employ a three-dimensional methodology that accounts for spatiotemporal continuity to identify and extract meteorological drought events based on a 3-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI3). Measured by the SPEI3 index, the incidence of drought increased in the middle part of the basin, especially in some parts of Sichuan and Yunnan province, and the frequency of drought events decreased in the upper reaches. We evaluate drought events within the Yangtze River basin from 1980 to 2016 by examining five variables: chronology, extent, severity, duration, and epicenter locations. The results show that a total of 97 persisting drought events lasting at least 3 months have been identified in Yangtze River basin. Most events have a duration between 4 and 7 months. The findings indicate that while the number of drought events in the Yangtze River basin has remained unchanged, the intensity, duration, and severity of these events have shown a slight increase from 1980 to 2016. The drought events gradually moved from the western and southeastern parts of the basin to the central region. The most severe drought event occurred between January 2011 and October 2011, with a duration of 10 months and an affected area of 0.94 million km², impacting over fifty percent of the basin. Changes in wetness and dryness in the Yangtze River basin are closely related to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, with a positive correlation between the intensity of cold events and the probability of extreme drought. This study enhances our understanding of the dynamics and evolution of drought events in the Yangtze River basin, providing crucial insights for better managing water resources and developing effective adaptation strategies. Full article

In response to the intensification of global warming, extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and cold waves (CWs) have become increasingly frequent near the eastern Guangdong coast, significantly affecting the structure and material transport of coastal waters. Based on nearshore-measured and remote sensing reanalysis data in the winter of 2011 and summer of 2012 on the eastern Guangdong coast, this study analyzed the nearshore hydrodynamic evolution process, influencing mechanism, and marine environmental effects under the influence of TCs and CWs, and further compared the similarities and differences between the two events. The results revealed significant seasonal variations in the hydrological and meteorological elements of the coastal waters, which were disrupted by the passage of TCs and CWs. The primary influencing factors were TC track and CW intensity. The current structure changed significantly during the TCs and CWs, with the TC destroying the original upwelling current and the CW affecting the prevailing northeastward current. Wind is one of the major forces driving nearshore hydrodynamic processes. According to the synchronous analysis of research data, the TC-induced water level rise is primarily attributed to the combined effects of wind stress curl and the Ekman effect, whereas the water level rise associated with CW is primarily linked to the Ekman effect. The water transport patterns during the TC and CW differed, with transport concentrated on the right side of the TC track and within the coastal strong-wind zones, respectively. Additionally, the temporal frequency domain of wavelet analysis highlighted the distinct nature of TC and CW signals, with 1–3 d and 4–8 d, respectively, and with TC signals being short-lived and rapid compared to the more sustained CW signals. This study enhances our understanding of the response of coastal hydrodynamics to extreme weather events on the eastern Guangdong coast, and the results can provide references for disaster management and protection of nearshore ocean engineering under extreme events. Full article