Search Results (865)

The coastal sandy land in northeast Hainan Province is typical for this land type, also exhibiting strong sand activity. This study is based on wind speed, wind direction, and sediment transport data obtained at a field meteorological station using an omnidirectional sand accumulation instrument from 2020 to 2024, studying the coastal aeolian environment and sediment transport distribution characteristics in the region. Its findings provide a theoretical basis for comprehensively analyzing the evolution of coastal aeolian landforms and the evaluation and control of coastal aeolian hazards. The research results show the following: (1) The annual average threshold wind velocity for sand movement in the study area is 6.84 m/s, and the wind speed frequency (frequency of occurrence) is 51.54%, dominated by easterly (NE, ENE) and southerly (S, SSE) winds. (2) The drift potential (DP) refers to the potential amount of sediment transported within a certain time and spatial range, and the annual drift potential (DP) and resultant drift potential (RDP) of Mulan Bay from 2020 to 2024 were 550.82 VU and 326.88 VU, respectively, indicating a high-energy wind environment. The yearly directional wind variability index (RDP/DP) was 0.59, classified as a medium ratio and indicating blunt bimodal wind conditions. The yearly resultant drift direction (RDD) was 249.45°, corresponding to a WSW direction, indicating that the sand in Mulan Bay is generally transported in the southwest direction. (3) When the measured data extracted from the sand accumulation instrument in the study area from 2020 to 2024 were used for statistical analysis, the results showed that the total sediment transport rate (the annual sediment transport of the observation section) in the study area was 110.87 kg/m·a, with the maximum sediment transport rate in the NE direction being 29.26 kg/m·a. These results suggest that when sand fixation systems are constructed for relevant infrastructure in the region, the construction direction of protective forests and other engineering measures should be perpendicular to the net direction of sand transport. Full article

The objective of this study was to evaluate the physical-hydric properties of a Planosol under an Integrated Crop–Livestock–Forest (ICLF) system in the Agreste region of Paraíba, Brazil, after eight years of implementation, and to compare them with areas under a conventional cropping system and secondary native vegetation. The experiment was conducted at the experimental station located in Alagoinha, in the Agreste mesoregion of the State of Paraíba, Brazil. The experimental design adopted was a randomized block design (RBD) with five treatments and four replications (5 × 4 + 2). The treatments consisted of: (1) Gliricidia (Gliricidia sepium (Jacq.) Steud) + Signal grass (Urochloa decumbens) (GL+SG); (2) Sabiá (Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia Benth) + Signal grass (SB+SG); (3) Purple Ipê (Handroanthus avellanedae (Lorentz ex Griseb.) Mattos) + SG (I+SG); (4) annual crop + SG (C+SG); and (5) Signal grass (SG). Two additional treatments were included for statistical comparison: a conventional cropping system (CC) and a secondary native vegetation area (NV), both located near the experimental site. The CC treatment showed the lowest bulk density (1.23 g cm⁻³) and the lowest degree of compaction (66.3%) among the evaluated treatments, as well as a total porosity (TP) higher than 75% (0.75 m³ m⁻³). In the soil under the integration system, the lowest bulk density (1.38 g cm⁻³) and the highest total porosity (0.48 m³ m⁻³) were observed in the SG treatment at the 0.0–0.10 m depth. High S-index values (>0.035) and a low relative field capacity (RFc < 0.50) and K_θ indicate high structural quality and low soil water storage capacity. It was concluded that the SG, I+SG, SB+SG, and CC treatments presented the highest values of soil bulk and degree of compaction in the layers below 0.10 m. The I+SG and C+SG treatments showed the lowest hydraulic conductivities and macroaggregation. The SG and C+SG treatments had the lowest available water content and available water capacity across the three analyzed soil layers. Full article

The accurate estimation of urban property values is a key challenge for appraisers, market participants, financial institutions, and urban planners. In recent years, machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as promising tools for price forecasting due to their ability to model complex relationships among variables. However, their application raises two main critical issues: (i) the risk of overfitting, especially with small datasets or with noisy data; (ii) the interpretive issues associated with the “black box” nature of many models. Within this framework, this paper proposes a methodological approach that addresses both these issues, comparing the predictive performance of three ML algorithms—k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), Random Forest (RF), and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN)—applied to the housing market in the city of Salerno, Italy. For each model, overfitting is preliminarily assessed to ensure predictive robustness. Subsequently, the results are interpreted using explainability techniques, such as SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAPs) and Permutation Feature Importance (PFI). This analysis reveals that the Random Forest offers the best balance between predictive accuracy and transparency, with features such as area and proximity to the train station identified as the main drivers of property prices. kNN and the ANN are viable alternatives that are particularly robust in terms of generalization. The results demonstrate how the defined methodological framework successfully balances predictive effectiveness and interpretability, supporting the informed and transparent use of ML in real estate valuation. Full article

The prevailing environmental conditions before and during the 28 Large Forest Fires (LFFs) that have occurred in the Canary Islands since 1983 are analyzed. These conditions are often associated with episodes characterized by the advection of continental tropical air masses originating from the Sahara, which frequently result in intense heatwaves. During the onset of the LFFs, the base of the subsidence thermal inversion layer—separating a lower layer of cool, moist air from an upper layer of warm, dry air—is typically located at an altitude of around 350 m above sea level, approximately 600 m below the usual average. Understanding these Saharan air advection events is crucial, as they significantly alter the vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere and create highly conducive conditions for wildfire ignition and spread in the forested mid- and high-altitude zones of the archipelago. Analysis of meteorological records from various weather stations reveals that the average maximum temperature on the first day of fire ignition is 30.3 °C, with mean temperatures of 27.4 °C during the preceding week and 28.9 °C throughout the fire activity period. Relative humidity on the ignition days averages 24.3%, remaining at around 30% during the active phase of the fires. No significant correlation has been found between dry or wet years and the occurrence of LFFs, which have been recorded across years with widely varying precipitation levels. Full article

As a key tropospheric photochemical pollutant, ground-level ozone (O₃) poses significant threats to ecosystems through its strong oxidative capacity. With China’s rapid industrialization and urbanization, worsening O₃ pollution has emerged as a critical environmental concern. This study examines O₃’s impacts on forest ecosystems in Southwestern China (Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Chongqing), which harbors crucial forest resources. We analyzed high-resolution monitoring data from over 200 stations (2019–2023), employing spatial interpolation to derive the regional maximum daily 8 h average O₃ (MDA8-O₃, ppb) and accumulated O₃ exposure over 40 ppb (AOT40) metrics. Through AOT40-based exposure–response modeling, we quantified the forest relative yield losses (RYL), economic losses (ECL) and ECL/GDP (GDP: gross domestic product) ratios in this region. Our findings reveal alarming O₃ increases across the region, with a mean annual MDA8-O₃ anomaly trend of 2.4% year⁻¹ (p < 0.05). Provincial MDA8-O₃ anomaly trends varied from 1.4% year⁻¹ (Yunnan, p = 0.059) to 4.3% year⁻¹ (Guizhou, p < 0.001). Strong correlations (r > 0.85) between annual RYL and annual MDA8-O₃ anomalies demonstrate the detrimental effects of O₃ on forest biomass. The RYL trajectory showed an initial decline during 2019–2020 and accelerated losses during 2020–2023, peaking at 13.8 ± 6.4% in 2023. Provincial variations showed a 5-year averaged RYL ranging from 7.10% (Chongqing) to 15.85% (Yunnan). O₃ exposure caused annual ECL/GDP averaging 4.44% for Southwestern China, with Yunnan suffering the most severe consequences (ECL/GDP averaging 8.20%, ECL averaging CNY 29.8 billion). These results suggest that O₃-driven forest degradation may intensify, potentially undermining the regional carbon sequestration capacity, highlighting the urgent need for policy interventions. We recommend enhanced monitoring networks and stricter control methods to address these challenges. Full article

Electronic voting allows people to participate more easily in their country’s electoral events. Nevertheless, its adoption is still far from widespread. In this paper, we provide a detailed survey of the state of adoption worldwide and investigate which socio-economic factors may influence such an adoption. Its usage is wider in North and South America, while remaining considerably lower in Europe and Asia and practically absent in Africa. We distinguish between e-voting, which maintains the traditional polling station structure while adding technological components, and i-voting, which enables remote participation from any location using personal devices. Five factors (country’s surface and population, Gross Domestic Product, Internet Usage, and Democracy Index) are investigated to predict adoption, and an accuracy of over 79% is achieved through a machine learning random forest model. Larger, wealthier, and more democratic countries are typically associated with a larger adoption of internet voting. Full article

The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), often referred to as the “Third Pole” of the world, harbors alpine grassland ecosystems that play an essential role as global carbon sinks, helping to mitigate the pace of climate change. Nonetheless, alterations in natural environmental conditions coupled with escalating human activities have disrupted the seasonal growth cycles of grasslands, thereby intensifying degradation processes. To date, the key drivers and lifecycle dynamics of Grassland Depletion across the QTP remain contentious, limiting our comprehension of its ecological repercussions and regulatory mechanisms. This study comprehensively investigates grassland degradation on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, analyzing its drivers and changes in ecological suitability during the growing season. By integrating natural factors (e.g., precipitation and temperature) and anthropogenic influences (e.g., population density and grazing intensity), it examines observational data from over 160 monitoring stations collected between the 1980s and 2020. The findings reveal three distinct phases of grassland degradation: an acute degradation phase in 1990 (GDI, Grassland Degradation Index = 2.53), a partial recovery phase from 1996 to 2005 (GDI < 2.0) during which the proportion of degraded grassland decreased from 71.85% in 1990 to 51.22% in 2005, and a renewed intensification of degradation after 2006 (GDI > 2.0), with degraded grassland areas reaching 56.39% by 2020. Among the influencing variables, precipitation emerged as the most significant driver, interacting closely with anthropogenic factors such as grazing practices and population distribution. Specifically, the combined impacts of precipitation with population density, grazing pressure, and elevation were particularly notable, yielding interaction q-values of 0.796, 0.767, and 0.752, respectively. Our findings reveal that while grasslands exhibit superior carbon sink potential relative to forests, their productivity and ecological functionality are undergoing considerable declines due to the compounded effects of multiple interacting factors. Consequently, the spatial distribution of ecologically suitable zones has contracted significantly, with the remaining high-suitability regions concentrating in the “twin-star” zones of Baingoin and Zanda grasslands, areas recognized as focal points for future ecosystem preservation. Furthermore, the effects of climate change and intensifying anthropogenic activity have driven the reduction in highly suitable grassland areas, shrinking from 41,232 km² in 1990 to 24,485 km² by 2020, with projections indicating a further decrease to only 2844 km² by 2060. This study sheds light on the intricate mechanisms behind Grassland Depletion, providing essential guidance for conservation efforts and ecological restoration on the QTP. Moreover, it offers theoretical underpinnings to support China’s carbon neutrality and peak carbon emission goals. Full article

Understanding the impacts of the spatial non-stationarity of environmental factors on surface soil moisture (SSM) in different seasons is crucial for effective environmental management. Yet, our knowledge of this phenomenon remains limited. This study introduces an interpretable machine learning framework that combines the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method with two-step clustering to unravel the spatial drivers of SSM across Iran. Due to the limited availability of in situ SSM data, the performance of three global SSM datasets—SMAP, MERRA-2, and CFSv2—from 2015 to 2023 was evaluated using agrometeorological stations. SMAP outperformed the others, showing the highest median correlation and the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Using SMAP, we estimated SSM across 609 catchments employing the Random Forest (RF) algorithm. The RF model yielded R² values of 0.89, 0.83, 0.70, and 0.75 for winter, spring, summer, and autumn, respectively, with corresponding RMSE values of 0.076, 0.081, 0.098, and 0.061 m³/m³. SHAP analysis revealed that climatic factors primarily drive SSM in winter and autumn, while vegetation and soil characteristics are more influential in spring and summer. The clustering results showed that Iran’s catchments can be grouped into five categories based on the SHAP method coefficients, highlighting regional differences in SSM controls. Full article

Accurately hindcasting waves in semi-enclosed, fetch-limited basins remains challenging for reanalysis models, which tend to underestimate storm peaks near the coast. We developed interpretable ML models for Rijeka Bay (northern Adriatic) using only wind observations from two land-based wind stations to predict buoy H_m0 measurements spanning 2009–2011 (testing) and 2019–2021 (training and validation). The tested tree-based models included Random Forest, XGBoost, and Explainable Boosting Machine. This study introduces a novel approach in the literature by employing weighted schemes and feature engineering to enhance the predictive performance of interpretable, low-complexity machine learning models in hindcasting waves. Representing wind direction as sine–cosine components generally reduced RMSE and BIAS relative to traditional speed–direction inputs, while an exponential sample weight scheme that emphasized storm waves halved extreme H_m0 underprediction without inflating overall RMSE. The best-performing model, a Random Forest model, achieved an RMSE of 0.096 m and a correlation of 0.855 on the unseen test set—30% lower overall RMSE and 50% lower extreme wave RMSE than the MEDSEA and COEXMED hindcasts. Additionally, the underprediction was reduced by 90% compared to these reanalysis models. The method offers a computationally lightweight, transferable supplement to numerical wave guidance for coastal engineering and harbor operations. Full article

Clouds modulate the net radiative flux that interacts with both shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiation, but the uncertainties regarding their effect in polar regions are especially high because ground observations are lacking and evaluation through satellites is made difficult by high surface reflectance. In this work, sky conditions for six different polar stations, two in the Arctic (Ny-Ålesund and Utqiagvik [formerly Barrow]) and four in Antarctica (Neumayer, Syowa, South Pole, and Dome C) will be presented, considering the decade between 2010 and 2020. Measurements of broadband SW and LW radiation components (both downwelling and upwelling) are collected within the frame of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). Sky conditions—categorized as clear sky, cloudy, or overcast—were determined using cloud fraction estimates obtained through the RADFLUX method, which integrates shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative fluxes. RADFLUX was applied with daily fitting for all BSRN stations, producing two cloud fraction values: one derived from shortwave downward (SWD) measurements and the other from longwave downward (LWD) measurements. The variation in cloud fraction used to classify conditions from clear sky to overcast appeared consistent and reasonable when compared to seasonal changes in shortwave downward (SWD) and diffuse radiation (DIF), as well as longwave downward (LWD) and longwave upward (LWU) fluxes. These classifications served as labels for a machine learning-based classification task. Three algorithms were evaluated: Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and XGBoost. Input features include downward LW radiation, solar zenith angle, surface air temperature ($T_a$), relative humidity, and the ratio of water vapor pressure to $T_a$. Among these models, XGBoost achieved the highest balanced accuracy, with the best scores of 0.78 at Ny-Ålesund (Arctic) and 0.78 at Syowa (Antarctica). The evaluation employed a leave-one-year-out approach to ensure robust temporal validation. Finally, the results from cross-station models highlighted the need for deeper investigation, particularly through clustering stations with similar environmental and climatic characteristics to improve generalization and transferability across locations. Additionally, the use of feature normalization strategies proved effective in reducing inter-station variability and promoting more stable model performance across diverse settings. Full article

The remote sensing inversion of the Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC) at the Yellow River estuary is crucial for regional sediment management and the advancement of monitoring techniques for highly turbid waters. Traditional in situ methods and low-resolution imagery are no longer sufficient for high-accuracy studies. Using SSC data from the Longmen Hydrological Station (2019–2020) and Sentinel-2 imagery, multiple models were compared, and the random forest regression model was selected for its superior performance. A non-parametric regression model was developed based on optimal band combinations to estimate the SSC in high-sediment rivers. Results show that the model achieved a high coefficient of determination (R² = 0.94) and met accuracy requirements considering the maximum SSC, MAPE, and RMSE. The B4, B7, B8A, and B9 bands are highly sensitive to high-concentration sediment rivers. SSC exhibited significant seasonal and spatial variation, peaking above 30,000 mg/L in summer (July–September) and dropping below 1000 mg/L in winter, with a positive correlation with discharge. Spatially, the SSC was higher in the gorge section than in the main channel during the flood season and higher near the banks than in the river center during the dry season. Overall, the random forest model outperformed traditional methods in SSC prediction for sediment-laden rivers. Full article

Boao Jade Beach, on the east coast of Hainan Island, is a typical sandy beach and is one of the areas where typhoons frequently land in Hainan. This study examined wind speed, wind direction, and sediment transport data obtained from field meteorological stations and omnidirectional sand accumulation instruments from 2020 to 2024 to study the coastal aeolian environment and sediment transport distribution characteristics in the region. The findings provide a theoretical basis for comprehensive analyses of the evolution of coastal aeolian landforms and the evaluation and control of coastal aeolian hazards. The research results showed the following: (1) The annual average threshold wind velocity for sand movement in the study area was 6.13 m/s, and the wind speed frequency was 20.97%, mainly dominated by easterly winds (NNE, NE) and southerly winds (S). (2) The annual drift potential (DP) and resultant drift potential (RDP) of Boao Jade Belt Beach from 2020 to 2024 were 125.99 VU and 29.59 VU, respectively, indicating a low-energy wind environment. The yearly index of directional wind variability (RDP/DP) was 0.23, which is classified as a small ratio and indicates blunt bimodal wind conditions. The yearly resultant drift direction (RDD) was 329.41°, corresponding to the NNW direction, indicating that the sand on Boao Jade Belt Beach is generally transported in the southwest direction. (3) When the measured data from the sand accumulation instrument in the study area from 2020 to 2024 were used for a statistical analysis, the results showed that the total sediment transport rate in the study area was 39.97 kg/m·a, with the maximum sediment transport rate in the S direction being 17.74 kg/m·a. These results suggest that, when sand fixation systems are constructed for relevant infrastructure in the region, the direction of protective forests and other engineering measures should be perpendicular to the net direction of sand transport. Full article

Hydrological processes in river systems are changing due to climate variability and human activities, making it crucial to understand and quantify these changes for effective water resource management. This study examines long-term trends in hydroclimate variables (1990–2022) and land use/land cover (LULC) changes (1988, 2002, and 2022) within the Continental Reach of the Gambia River Basin (CGRB). Trend analyses of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 12-month and 24-month scales, along with river discharge at the Simenti station, reveal a shift from dry conditions to wetter phases post-2008, marked by significant increases in rainfall and discharge variability. LULC analysis revealed significant transformations in the basin. LULC analysis highlights significant transformations within the basin. Forest and savanna areas decreased by 20.57 and 4.48%, respectively, between 1988 and 2002, largely due to human activities such as agricultural expansion and deforestation for charcoal production. Post-2002, forest cover recovered from 32.36 to 36.27%, coinciding with the wetter conditions after 2008, suggesting that climatic shifts promoted vegetation regrowth. Spatial analysis further highlights an increase in bowe and steppe areas, especially in the north, indicating land degradation linked to human land use practices. Bowe areas, marked by impermeable laterite outcrops, and steppe areas with sparse herbaceous cover result from overgrazing and soil degradation, exacerbated by the region’s drier phases. A notable decrease in burned areas from 2.03 to 0.23% suggests improvements in fire management practices, reducing fire frequency, which is also supported by wetter conditions post-2008. Agricultural land and bare soils expanded by 14%, from 2.77 to 3.07%, primarily in the northern and central regions, likely driven by both population pressures and climatic shifts. Correlations between precipitation and land cover changes indicate that wetter conditions facilitated forest regrowth, while drier conditions exacerbated land degradation, with human activities such as deforestation and agricultural expansion potentially amplifying the impact of climatic shifts. These results demonstrate that while climatic shifts played a role in driving vegetation recovery, human activities were key in shaping land use patterns, impacting both precipitation and stream discharge, particularly due to agricultural practices and land degradation. Full article

Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Lawson & C. Lawson) forests in the western United States have experienced reduced fire frequency since Euro-American settlement, usually because of successful fire suppression policies and even without such human impacts at remote sites in the Great Basin and Mojave Deserts. In an effort to improve our understanding of long-term environmental dynamics in sky-island ecosystems, we developed tree-ring chronologies from ponderosa pines located in the Sheep Mountain Range of southern Nevada, inside the Desert National Wildlife Refuge (DNWR). After comparing those dendrochronological records with other ones available for the south-central Great Basin, we analyzed their climatic response using station-recorded monthly precipitation and air temperature data from 1950 to 2024. The main climatic signal was December through May total precipitation, which was then reconstructed at annual resolution over the past five centuries, from 1490 to 2011 CE. The mean episode duration was 2.6 years, and the maximum drought duration was 11 years (1924–1934; the “Dust Bowl” period), while the longest episode, 19 years (1905–1923), is known throughout North America as the “early 1900s pluvial”. By quantifying multi-annual dry and wet episodes, the period since DNWR establishment was placed in a long-term dendroclimatic framework, allowing us to estimate the potential drought resilience of its unique, tree-dominated environments. Full article

This study focuses on a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest in China, utilizing a large permanent plot established in the Yaoluoping National Nature Reserve. By integrating data from a full-stem census and total station surveying, we analyzed the phylogenetic structure of the plant community as a whole and across different life-history stages (saplings, juveniles, and adults) while quantitatively assessing microtopographic variables and an interspecific competition index. The results indicate that the overall community in the Yaoluoping plot exhibited a weakly overdispersed pattern, and key microtopographic factors—including aspect, terrain position index (TPI), terrain ruggedness index (TRI), roughness, and flow direction—significantly influenced the evolution of phylogenetic structure. Distinctions were also observed among saplings, juveniles, and adults in phylogenetic structuring across life-history stages. Specifically, saplings displayed a higher degree of phylogenetic clustering, significantly influenced by density, elevation, TPI, and flow direction—suggesting that environmental filtering predominates at this stage, possibly due to lower environmental tolerance, limited dispersal ability, and conspecific negative density dependence. In contrast, juveniles and adults showed a more dispersed phylogenetic structure, with density, interspecific competition, aspect, TRI, TPI, and roughness significantly correlated with phylogenetic patterns, indicating that competition and niche differentiation become increasingly important as trees mature and establish within the community. Interspecific competition was found to play a crucial role in community structuring: the competition index was generally negatively correlated with the net relatedness index (NRI) and nearest taxon index (NTI) in juveniles and adults, implying that intense competition leads to the exclusion of some species and reduces overall diversity, with the strength and significance of competitive effects differing across stages. This study enhances our understanding of the complex interplay between microtopography and interspecific competition in shaping the phylogenetic structure and diversity of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests, elucidates the coupled mechanisms among microtopography, phylogenetic structure, and competition, and provides a scientific basis for forest conservation and management. Full article