Search Results (286)

Global economic policy uncertainty has emerged as a significant challenge for developing regions, with Sub-Saharan Africa particularly vulnerable due to its fragile economies and social systems that rely on external support. This study examines the effect of global economic policy uncertainty on social sustainability and how this relationship is moderated by governance effectiveness and natural resource rents. These relationships were examined using 27 years of panel data from 45 Sub-Saharan African countries, spanning 1997 to 2023. The Augmented Mean Group (AMG), Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCMG), and the two-step difference Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators are advanced methods for analyzing data and estimating relationships among variables. The study found that global economic policy uncertainty had a significant negative effect on social sustainability. Furthermore, the study revealed that governance effectiveness and natural resource rents positively and significantly moderate the relationship between global economic policy uncertainty and social sustainability. These findings have significant implications for policy and governance, highlighting the critical need for governments, especially in developing and resource-dependent regions, to strengthen institutional capacity and fiscal frameworks in order to manage the adverse effects of global economic policy uncertainty. They underscore the importance of developing responsive, transparent, and accountable governance structures that can effectively allocate resources toward social priorities even during periods of external economic volatility. Full article

Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality, the cross-regional allocation of green electricity is pivotal for energy transition, yet its impact on inclusive economic growth and regional equity remains contentious. This study addresses the spatial welfare mismatch arising from large-scale power transmission in China. Utilizing provincial panel data from 2006 to 2022 and employing the staggered rollout of Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) lines as a quasi-natural experiment, we apply advanced econometric models, including CS-DID and Bartik instrumental variables, to identify causal effects. Empirical results reveal an asymmetric “cost-benefit separation” effect: while green electricity imports significantly bolster high-quality development (HQD) in eastern recipient regions, exports exert a drag on western provinces by triggering capital outflow, profit deprivation, and ecological load. Consequently, regional HQD gaps exhibit divergence rather than convergence. However, we find that fiscal ecological compensation acts as a critical moderating buffer, effectively reversing this trend and driving conditional convergence and sustainable regional development. Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that market-oriented electricity reforms and “East Data, West Computing” infrastructure mitigate these negative externalities. These findings underscore the necessity of shifting from a purely engineering-focused transmission model to an institutional framework centered on energy justice, offering actionable insights for achieving SDG 7 and SDG 10 synergies. Full article

Efficient and financially sustainable social protection systems are essential under conditions of economic instability and increasing social demand. However, traditional administrative models are often characterized by high operational costs, procedural complexity, and delayed benefit delivery. This study examines the role of digitalization, process automation, and AI-driven administrative solutions in reducing administrative expenses while enhancing the sustainability and resilience of social protection systems. An integrated Automation Index is developed using standardized proxy indicators that reflect reductions in operational and transaction costs associated with digital and automated technologies. To assess future trajectories of administrative expenses, scenario-based modelling is applied under three digital transformation paths—baseline, moderate, and intensive. Administrative efficiency is estimated using a translog Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) framework. The results indicate that digitalization and automation significantly reduce administrative costs only when supported by favorable institutional conditions, including decentralized governance, effective inter-agency coordination, and clearly regulated administrative procedures. Under the intensive digital transformation scenario, administrative expenses decline substantially relative to the baseline, while system responsiveness and beneficiary coverage improve. In contrast, weak institutional environments limit the efficiency gains of technological solutions. The study concludes that AI agents and automated systems should be viewed not as substitutes for human decision-making but as tools for optimizing administrative architectures. This transition from resource-intensive to technology-intensive models is particularly important for developing countries seeking sustainable social protection under constrained fiscal conditions. Full article

Water and sanitation governance sits at the intersection of global development ambitions and highly localized service realities. While SDG6 sets universal targets for clean water and sanitation, the institutional and fiscal arrangements that translate those targets into actual service outcomes operate primarily at the subnational level. The discrepancy between globally defined objectives and locally executed delivery creates a structural research gap: how do the fiscal architectures of local governments influence progress towards SDG6? This study addresses this question for a panel of OECD countries by developing a deep learning-based estimation framework that combines bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks with Tianji’s horse racing optimization (THRO) algorithm. Three distinct operationalizations of fiscal decentralization are tested against SDG6 outcomes: subnational expenditure share (EFDM), subnational revenue share (RFDM), and a composite index balancing both dimensions (CFDM). Model adequacy is assessed using a layered diagnostic protocol involving regression fit, country-level residual patterns, error density profiles, Bland–Altman limits of agreement and inter-annual error trajectories. Among the three configurations, CFDM consistently records superior performance ($R^2=0.9216$; $RMSE = 1.4465$; $MAE = 1.0712$), while even the weakest specification clears $R^2=0.89$, attesting to the overall robustness of the proposed architecture. The margin by which CFDM outperforms its alternatives highlights a key finding: neither spending authority nor revenue capacity alone accurately reflects the fiscal reality of local water and sanitation governance; it is their combined effect that is important. The expenditure dimension is further proven to be the more influential of the two unidimensional proxies, consistent with the capital-intensive and maintenance-heavy nature of water infrastructure. On the other hand, coefficient findings show that fiscal decentralization is positively associated with SDG6 achievement for all models. Beyond its empirical contributions, the study introduces a methodological template for applying hybrid AI optimization to policy-relevant sustainability panels. It also connects two largely parallel bodies of scholarship, fiscal federalism and SDG research, that have rarely been examined together. Full article

Environmental taxation constitutes a key instrument of climate policy and plays an increasingly important role in decentralised governance systems. Using Spain as an empirical setting characterised by high fiscal decentralisation and pronounced territorial heterogeneity, we analyse the determinants of regional environmental taxation, accounting for both internal regional conditions and cross-regional policy interaction. Employing spatial panel econometric techniques, we provide robust evidence of spatial interaction and temporal persistence in regional environmental taxation at both the intensive and extensive margins. We also find that regional environmental taxation depends not only on domestic economic, institutional, and political characteristics, but also on those of neighbouring regions. These patterns are consistent with key theoretical mechanisms in fiscal federalism and public economics, including tax competition, yardstick competition, the double dividend hypothesis, NIMBY-type responses, and development–environment dynamics. Fur-ther analysis at the intensive margin reveals adjustment patterns consistent primarily with upward dynamics, although some evidence of downward responses is also found. In particular, upward adjustments appear to be more systematic, while downward responses are limited to regions with relatively lower environmental taxation. This asymmetry sug-gests that competitive pressures do not operate uniformly across jurisdictions. From a sustainability and governance perspective, the findings show that environmental tax policies in decentralised systems are shaped by strategic inter-regional interdependence, influencing the trajectories of regional sustainability transitions rather than reflecting isolated policy choices. Full article

In the current context, where sustainability has become a global imperative, emerging markets have increasingly incorporated green finance as a strategic pillar to foster long-term growth and stability. This study examines the evolution, trends, and key challenges of sustainable investment in emerging economies, with a particular focus on the integration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria. A systematic literature review was conducted using Scopus and Web of Science, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocol, based on a sample of 399 articles published over the past decade. The findings reveal a significant expansion in academic output on ESG investments in emerging markets, with an average annual growth rate of 14.06% and an international co-authorship rate of 37.34%. China, the United Kingdom, South Africa, and the United States emerge as leading contributors, particularly since 2020. However, critical gaps persist, including inconsistencies in ESG ratings and the limited adaptation of ESG frameworks to local socioeconomic and institutional conditions. Future research should focus on strengthening public policy frameworks, designing effective fiscal incentives, assessing the distributive implications of green finance, and leveraging technologies such as fintech, blockchain, and artificial intelligence to enhance ESG rating consistency, transparency, risk measurement, and the overall efficiency of sustainable investments. Full article

Capital structure theory remains a central concern within corporate finance, despite more than six decades of sustained scholarly inquiry. The seminal contributions of Modigliani and Miller established the analytical foundations from which subsequent frameworks emerged, notably the static trade-off theory and its later evolution into dynamic adjustment models. Although competing theoretical perspectives have advanced the debate, their respective limitations have increasingly encouraged a more integrative understanding of firms’ financing behaviour. This study critically examines the limitations of the dynamic trade-off model in explaining the financing decisions of Portuguese small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) during the period 2015–2024. The article contributes to the literature by proposing an original comparative methodological framework and introducing an empirical indicator designed to assess the divergence between the model’s theoretical assumptions and observed financing practices. Using dynamic panel estimations based on the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), the findings reveal that, although SMEs exhibit partial adjustment behaviour towards target leverage rations, several core determinants predicted by the dynamic trade-off framework lose explanatory power when confronted with observed data. In particular, profitability displays patterns more consistent with pecking order behaviour, while variables traditionally associated with debt optimization and collateral effects become statistically weak or inconsistent. These results suggest that the financing behaviour of Portuguese SMEs cannot be fully explained by a single theoretical framework and is strongly shaped by institutional constraints, internal financing preferences, and contextual factors. The study therefore highlights both the continuing relevance and the empirical limitations of the dynamic trade-off model, while reinforcing the need for more pluralistic approaches to capital structure analysis. From a practical perspective, the findings indicate that SME financing decisions should not be interpreted solely through leverage optimization logic, carrying implications for managers, financial institutions, and policymakers involved in SME financing and fiscal policy design. Full article

This study examines whether government-led digital governance is associated with improvements in urban sustainable development performance in the context of China’s Information Benefiting the People pilot program. Using the pilot program as a quasi-natural experiment, we estimate a difference-in-differences model based on a panel of Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2024. Urban sustainable development performance is measured using an entropy-weight TOPSIS composite index that integrates economic development, resource-environmental quality, and social life. The results provide evidence that pilot city designation significantly improves the composite index within this specific policy setting, and the finding remains robust after PSM-DID estimation, excluding the pandemic year and municipality samples, adopting one-period lagged specifications, and controlling for concurrent digital policy programs. Channel analysis provides evidence consistent with three potential pathways: industrial structure upgrading, green innovation, and government fiscal transparency. Moreover, environmental regulation strengthens the positive effect of digital governance, suggesting institutional complementarity between regulatory pressure and digital capacity. Sub-dimension analysis shows that the overall improvement is mainly driven by social life and resource-environmental quality, whereas the economic development dimension does not show a significant response within the study period. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals stronger effects in non-resource-based cities and ordinary prefecture-level cities, indicating that the effects of digital governance reforms may depend on local structural conditions and governance capacity. Full article

In the context of long-term fiscal sustainability challenges and a persistently uncertain geopolitical environment, the developmental role of public finances is gaining increasing prominence. A reallocation in the structure of government spending constitutes a key instrument for strengthening the developmental role of public finances and advancing the sustainable development goals. This study introduces a measurable indicator of the developmental role of public finances and examines the validity of Wagner’s law. Based on a sample of euro area countries, Granger causality panel vector error correction model estimates indicate there is a bidirectional causal relationship between general government expenditure and GDP per capita in the short-run, while the validity of Wagner’s law cannot be confirmed in the long-run. Productive government expenditure results suggest a weak indication of causality from productive government expenditure to GDP per capita. Effective fiscal policy should consider stabilisation needs, structural dynamics, and an appropriate institutional framework, while carefully managing the composition and sustainability of public spending and addressing developmental roles. Full article

As China rapidly transitions to a moderately aging society, the sustainable delivery of public elderly care services has emerged as a critical legal and governance challenge. Government procurement has become a pivotal mechanism through which the state engages both social and market actors in providing elderly care services. However, the sustainability of this service delivery mechanism remains constrained by fragmented legal norms, unstable fiscal guarantees, inconsistent service standards, weak supervision, and regional inequalities. This article examines how legal regulation can support the sustainable delivery of government-procured public elderly care services in China. Based on qualitative, desk-based legal and policy analysis, it reviews the evolution of China’s national and local regulatory framework, assesses the current system from the perspectives of institutional, fiscal, social, and governance sustainability, and identifies key legal and institutional dilemmas, arguing that China should construct a hierarchical legal framework, establish stable fiscal guarantee rules, develop unified service standards, strengthen whole-process supervision, and improve legal mechanisms for regional coordination. These reforms would enhance the rule-of-law foundation of government-procured elderly care services and provide a reference for other aging societies seeking sustainable public service delivery models. Full article

The coexistence of urban shrinkage and land finance dependency poses a distinct institutional challenge to regional development in China. However, the mechanisms linking multidimensional urban decline with reliance on land conveyance revenue remain inadequately understood. Using Liaoning Province as a case study, this research develops a comprehensive indicator system to assess urban shrinkage across demographic, economic, social, and spatial dimensions, and constructs a model to measure land finance dependency. Employing panel data from 2016 to 2023, the study evaluates urban shrinkage and land finance dependency in Liaoning and applies a coupling coordination degree model to explore their spatiotemporal evolution. The results show that 7 of the 14 prefecture-level cities in Liaoning experienced shrinkage. These cities demonstrate a distinct core–periphery spatial pattern and cluster mainly in traditional industrial and resource-dependent regions. Land finance dependency exhibits an inverted U-shaped pattern, peaking around 2020 and sharply declining from 2021 onwards, suggesting a substantial collapse in the fiscal support capacity of land finance within shrinking cities. This study argues that a structural contradiction exists between the growth-oriented land finance model and the emerging reality of urban shrinkage, with traditional fiscal tools becoming irreversibly disconnected from sustainable urban governance in the region. Therefore, a fiscal resilience framework suitable for the post-land-finance era should be established, endogenous urban renewal encouraged, and institutional adjustments tailored to population shrinkage implemented, replacing the conventional land-driven expansion model. This transition has significant implications for old industrial cities in transitional economies. Full article

In a large agrarian country with numerous smallholders, a key issue in food security governance is determining how to overcome the constraints of fragmented smallholder farming through productive service provision and thereby expand the scale of grain production. This study focuses on the pilot policy of whole-process socialized agricultural production services implemented during 2013–2016. This pilot served as an important policy foundation for the agricultural production trusteeship policy promoted nationwide after 2017 and represented an early institutional exploration of promoting service-scale operation through fiscal support for productive service provision in China. Using county-level panel data from three provinces over the period 2006–2016, this study evaluated the effect of fiscal subsidies embedded in outsourced service transactions on grain-sown area within a two-way fixed-effects framework with county and year fixed effects. The results show that the pilot significantly expanded the county-level grain-sown area, with the pilot counties increasing their grain-sown area by approximately 1.986 thousand hectares on average. When policy intensity is measured according to the amount of subsidies, each additional 10 million yuan of fiscal subsidies increased the grain-sown area by approximately 3.103 thousand hectares on average. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the marginal effects were stronger in counties with weaker fiscal capacity or lower levels of mechanization, indicating that the policy effects were more pronounced in areas with relatively weak initial conditions. In terms of policy implications, this paper recommends differentiated and performance-based support, improved governance of the agricultural service market, and prioritizing resource allocation to areas with weaker initial conditions, so as to enhance the scale and resilience of food security. This paper provides county-level quasi-causal evidence and an empirical reference for supporting agricultural productive services through fiscal policy to overcome the constraints of fragmented smallholder farming. Full article

This study aims to examine the impact of taxation on the adoption of digital finance in Africa and to assess the extent to which governance quality moderates this relationship. Using panel data for 54 African countries over the period 2007–2023 and applying the two-step System GMM, we find that taxes on goods and services—especially excise duties—exert a positive and statistically significant effect on the share of the population adopting mobile money. More importantly, this positive effect is strongly amplified in countries with better governance quality. Interaction terms reveal that government effectiveness, control of corruption, and voice and accountability significantly moderate the tax-adoption nexus, making taxation more conducive to digital finance development in countries with stronger institutions. These results remain robust across alternative tax measures, sample restrictions, lag structures, and additional controls. By distinguishing between general tax capacity and sector-specific taxes on digital financial services, this study reconciles contrasting findings in the literature and highlights a complementary relationship between fiscal policy and institutional quality. The findings suggest that strengthening governance represents a more effective strategy for simultaneously expanding the tax base and promoting digital financial inclusion in Africa. Full article

Urban eco-efficiency (UEE) is fundamental to achieving China’s dual-carbon goals. However, the literature has overlooked green space carbon sequestration, and linear models fail to capture complex nonlinear relationships. This study exploratorily integrates green space carbon sinks into the evaluation framework as an initial proxy, employing the global super-efficiency EBM model to measure the UEE of 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2012 to 2023. It combines XGBoost-SHAP with Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) to examine UEE’s spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms. The findings reveal that (1) UEE in the YREB increased from 1.0760 in 2012 to 1.0990 in 2023, while spatial polarization became more pronounced. (2) Core driving factors exhibited significant nonlinear threshold and interactive effects. Specifically, fiscal decentralization’s environmental dividend is contingent on active government intervention to circumvent localized “race to the bottom” behaviors. Furthermore, population density transitions from yielding scale dividends to inducing “crowding effects” beyond optimal capacities—a degradation that advanced financial systems appear unable to mitigate. (3) A spatiotemporal misalignment was observed: fiscal decentralization unleashed green institutional dividends downstream (coefficients up to 0.0682) but was accompanied by a race to the bottom in the middle and upper reaches (extending to −0.6548); excessive population agglomeration in megacities induced a crowding effect, eroding early pollution control dividends. This study supports abandoning one-size-fits-all approaches and developing precise, spatiotemporally differentiated low-carbon policies. Full article

Income inequality remains a central impediment to inclusive growth, yet whether government-led digital infrastructure programs mitigate or exacerbate distributional disparities is empirically contested. Exploiting the staggered rollout of China’s “Broadband China” (BBC) demonstration cities as a quasi-natural experiment, this study employs a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) framework on a panel of 281 prefecture-level cities spanning 2009–2022 to estimate the designation effects of national digital infrastructure policy under the DID identifying assumptions. After parallel-trends validation, permutation-based placebo tests, and propensity score matching, the baseline estimates indicate a dual distributional pattern: BBC designation is associated with a wider urban-rural income gap and lower within-prefecture nighttime-light-based spatial income inequality. Candidate-channel analysis provides evidence consistent with financial deepening and factor mobility as plausible pathways: expanded financial coverage and cross-regional labor reallocation are associated with spatial convergence, whereas asymmetric usage depth and selective labor mobility reinforce urban-rural divergence. Exploratory heterogeneity analysis across four institutional dimensions, officials’ political promotion incentives, local fiscal capacity, traditional infrastructure endowments, and urban hierarchy, further shows that this distributional pattern varies across local contexts. Furthermore, this study extends the analytical lens to the spatial dimension by employing a spatial DID framework. The results identify significant cross-border externalities characterized by cross-prefecture spillovers associated with lower within-prefecture nighttime-light-based spatial income inequality in neighboring cities. These findings provide an integrated policy-evaluation framework that disentangles the complex, multidimensional distributional consequences of digital infrastructure investment, offering actionable insights for designing more equitable digital public policies in developing economies. Full article