Search Results (46)

Changes in atmospheric circulation can be influenced by the collapse characteristics of the polar vortex, a significant system in the Northern Hemisphere. This study reveals the spatiotemporal evolution and causative mechanisms of the collapse of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex, as well as the polar vortex collapse criteria, Mann–Kendall test, mutation year extraction, and physical mechanism analyses, based on the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate (ERA5) data for 1980–2024. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The collapse events, which primarily occurred in spring, and the collapse time exhibited a U-shaped trend. (2) The collapse period exhibited significant spatiotemporal nonuniformity, with shorter periods in 10–100 hPa, larger variations in 100–300 hPa, and longer periods in 300–500 hPa. (3) The collapse mutation propagated downward to lower layers, beginning in 10–30 hPa and concentrating between 1995 and 2005. (4) The momentum flux and heat flux exhibit meridionally concentrated structures in the middle–lower stratosphere. The transition layer forms a region of momentum and energy accumulation. In the lower levels, the heat flux weakens. (5) The polar vortex collapse results from enhanced lower-stratospheric instability, weakened transition-layer disturbances, and upward energy transfer from low-level convergence, together forming a characteristic U-shaped collapse structure. Full article

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of key meteorological parameters at the Lenghu site, a premier astronomical observing location, with particular emphasis on understanding their variability patterns and long-term trends. The research systematically investigates regional distribution characteristics, periodic variations, seasonal changes, and the temporal evolution of critical atmospheric parameters that influence astronomical observations. Furthermore, this study explores the potential connections between these parameters and major climate oscillation patterns, including ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), and AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). Utilizing ERA5 (the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis data, we examine the regional atmospheric conditions (82°–102° E and 31°–46° N) surrounding the Lenghu site from 2000 to 2023 (24 years). The analysis focuses on fundamental meteorological parameters: precipitable water vapor (PWV), temperature, wind speed at 200 hPa ($W_{200}$), and total cloud cover (TCC). For the Lenghu site specifically, we extend the temporal coverage to 1990–2023 (34 years) to include additional parameters such as high cloud cover (HCC) and total column ozone (TCO). The analysis reveals that the ENSO and PDO indices are negatively correlated with $W_{200}$. The AMO index has a positive correlation with PWV and a slight positive correlation with $W_{200}$, temperature, and TCO. Moreover, a comparative analysis of Lenghu, Mauna Kea, and Paranal reveals distinct variation trends across sites due to regional climate differences. Notably, while all observatory sites are affected by global climate change, their response patterns and temporal characteristics exhibit subtle variations. Full article

Water vapor plays a crucial role in maintaining global energy balance and water cycle, and it is closely linked to various meteorological disasters. Precipitable water vapor (PWV), as an indicator of variations in atmospheric water vapor content, has become a key parameter for meteorological and climate monitoring. However, due to limitations in observation costs and technology, traditional atmospheric monitoring techniques often struggle to accurately capture the distribution and variations in space–time water vapor. With the continuous advancement of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technology, ground-based GNSS monitoring technology has shown rapid development momentum in the field of meteorology and is considered an emerging monitoring tool with great potential. Hence, based on the GNSS observation data from July 2023, this study retrieves PWV using the Global Pressure and Temperature 3 (GPT3) model and evaluates its application performance in the “7·31” extremely torrential rain event in Beijing in 2023. Research has found the following: (1) Tropospheric parameters, including the PWV, zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD), and zenith wet delay (ZWD), exhibit high consistency and are significantly affected by weather conditions, particularly exhibiting an increasing-then-decreasing trend during rainfall events. (2) Through comparisons with the PWV values through the integration based on fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-5) reanalysis data, it was found that results obtained using the GPT3 model exhibit high accuracy, with GNSS PWV achieving a standard deviation (STD) of 0.795 mm and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.886 mm. (3) During the rainfall period, GNSS PWV remains at a high level (>50 mm), and a strong correlation exists between GNSS PWV and peak hourly precipitation. Furthermore, PWV demonstrates the highest relative contribution in predicting extreme precipitation, highlighting its potential value for monitoring and predicting rainfall events. Full article

Marine atmospheric boundary-layer height (MABLH) is crucial for ocean heat, momentum, and substance transfer, affecting ocean circulation, climate, and ecosystems. Due to the unique geographical location of the South China Sea (SCS), coupled with its complex atmospheric environment and sparse ground-based observation stations, accurately determining the MABLH remains challenging. Coherent Doppler wind lidar (CDWL), as a laser-based active remote sensing technology, provides high-resolution wind profiling by transmitting pulsed laser beams and analyzing backscattered signals from atmospheric aerosols. In this study, we developed a stacking optimal ensemble model (SOEM) to estimate MABLH in the vicinity of the site by integrating CDWL measurements from a representative SCS site with ERA5 (fifth-generation reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) data from December 2019 to May 2021. Based on the categorization of the total cloud cover data into weather conditions such as clear/slightly cloudy, cloudy/transitional, and overcast/rainy, the SOEM demonstrates enhanced performance with an average mean absolute percentage error of 3.7%, significantly lower than the planetary boundary-layer-height products of ERA5. The SOEM outperformed random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and histogram-based gradient boosting models, achieving a robustness coefficient ($R^2$) of 0.95 and the lowest mean absolute error of 32 m under the clear/slightly cloudy condition. The validation conducted in the coastal city of Qingdao further confirmed the superiority of the SOEM in resolving meteorological heterogeneity. The predictions of the SOEM aligned well with CDWL observations during Typhoon Sinlaku (2020), capturing dynamic disturbances in MABLH. Overall, the SOEM provides a precise approach for estimating convective boundary-layer height, supporting marine meteorology, onshore wind power, and coastal protection applications. Full article

The Total Precipitable Water (TPW) is a key variable of atmospheres, and its spatiotemporal distribution is of great importance in global climate change. This paper addresses the TPW retrieval over both sea and land surfaces from the data acquired by the Microwave Humidity Sounder II (MWHS-II) on Fengyun 3D (FY-3D) satellite. First, the Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) algorithms are developed with the spatiotemporal matching samples of the MWHS-II data with the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) data. Then, the TPWs at spatial resolutions of 0.25° in longitude and latitude between 65°S and 65°N over both sea and land surfaces are retrieved from the pixel-aggregated FY-3D MWHS-II data in 2022. Finally, the TPWs retrieved in this work are validated with the radiosonde TPWs over both sea and land surfaces, and they are also compared to the F18 Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) TPWs over sea surfaces. The results indicate that the BPNN algorithms developed in this work are valid and superior to the D-matrix method, the Ridge method, the Lasso method, the physical method, the random forest (RF) method, the support vector machine (SVM) method, and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) method. Against the radiosonde TPWs, the mean error (ME), the root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) of the TPWs retrieved in this work are −1.17 mm, 3.46 mm, and 2.63 mm over sea surfaces, respectively, and they are −0.80 mm, 4.04 mm, and 3.13 mm over land surfaces, respectively. The TPWs retrieved in this work are much more accurate than the F18 SSMIS TPWs. Full article

Microwave sounding observations obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Meteorological Operational Satellite Program (METOP) satellites have been used for retrieving the cloud ice water path (IWP). However, the IWP algorithms developed in the past cannot be applied to the Fengyun-3F (FY-3F) microwave radiometers due to the differences in frequency of the primary channels and the fields of view. In this study, the IWP algorithm was tailored for the FY-3F satellite, and the retrieved IWP was compared with the fifth generation of reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) and the Meteorological Operational Satellite-C (METOP-C) products. The results indicate that the IWP distribution retrieved from FY-3F observations demonstrates strong consistency with the cloud ice distributions in ERA5 data and METOP-C products in low-latitude regions. However, discrepancies are observed among the three datasets in mid- to high-latitude regions. ERA5 data underestimate the frequency of high IWP values and overestimate the frequency of low IWP values. The IWP retrieval results from satellite datasets demonstrate a high level of consistency. Furthermore, an analysis of the IWP time series reveals that the retrieval algorithm used in this study better captures variability and seasonal characteristics of IWP compared to ERA5 data. Additionally, a comparison of FY-3F retrieval results with METOP-C products shows a high correlation and generally consistent distribution characteristics across latitude bands. These findings confirm the high accuracy of IWP retrieval from FY-3F data, which holds significant value for advancing IWP research in China. Full article

Atmospheric refraction is a significant challenge to accurate distance and angle measurements in open-air environments, often limiting the precision of measurements obtained using electro-optic geodetic instruments despite their nominal accuracies. This study introduces a novel model, 3D-RM, designed to mitigate atmospheric effects on both distance and vertical angle measurements. The 3D-RM integrates in situ meteorological data from a network of automatic data-loggers, terrain information from a digital terrain model (DTM), and sensible heat flux from the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast reanalysis (ERA5), which is used in the application of the Turbulence Transfer Model (TTM) for estimating vertical refractivity gradients at various height levels. The model was tested with total station observations to 10 target points during two field campaigns. The results show that applying the model for distance correction leads to improvements in terms of closeness to reference values when compared to the standard method, which relies only on meteorological data collected at the station. Furthermore, the model has been additionally tested by removing the station meteorological data (3D-RM2). The results demonstrate that accurate corrections can be obtained even without the need of meteorological sensors specifically installed at the station point, which makes it more flexible. The 3D-RM is a cost-effective and relatively easy-to-implement solution, offering a promising alternative to existing methodologies, such as measuring meteorological values at both station and target points or the development of new instruments that can compensate the refractivity (such as a multiple-color electronic distance meter). Full article

Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) is a significant error source affecting the accuracy of certain space geodetic measurements. This study evaluates the performance of Artificial Intelligence (AI) based meteorological models, such as Fengwu and Pangu, in estimating real-time ZTD. The results from these AI models were compared with those obtained from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5), and the third generation of the Global Pressure–Temperature data model (GPT3) to assess their accuracy across different time intervals, seasons, and geographic locations. The findings reveal that AI-driven models, particularly Fengwu, offer higher long-term forecasting accuracy. An analysis of data from 81 stations throughout 2023 indicates that Fengwu’s 7-day ZTD forecast achieved an RMSE of 2.85 cm when compared to GNSS-derived ZTD. However, in oceanic regions and areas with complex climatic dynamics, the Fengwu model exhibited a larger error compared to in other land regions. Additionally, seasonal variations and station altitude were found to influence the accuracy of ZTD predictions, emphasizing the need for detailed modeling in complex climatic zones. Full article

Heat stress is a climate extreme that impacts cattle health, fertility, feed intake, production, and well-being. In Vanuatu, the beef industry is crucial to local livelihoods and the nation’s economy, thus the objective of this study was to examine the impact of heat stress on cattle health and production. This study uses the Heat Load Index (HLI) and Accumulated Heat Load (AHL) as proxies to assess the impact of heat stress on cattle in Vanuatu over a 30-year period (1994–2023), using the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate (ERA5) data. The analysis examines historical patterns of heat stress in cattle across Vanuatu, identifying more instances of heat stress occurring during the wet season due to characteristically elevated temperatures, humidity, and low wind speeds. Findings also suggest that El Niño events may increase the intensity and duration of heat stress events. These insights inform the development of an Early Warning System for heat stress in cattle, establishing a crucial foundation for targeted adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing the resilience and sustainability of Vanuatu’s beef industry to climate variability and change. Full article

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) provides valuable 3-D atmospheric profiles with all-weather, all the time and high accuracy. However, GNSS RO mission data are still limited for global coverage. Currently, more commercial GNSS radio occultation missions are being launched, e.g., PlanetiQ. In this study, we examine the commercial GNSS RO PlanetiQ mission performance in comparison to KOMPSAT-5 and PAZ, including the coverage, SNR, and penetration depth. Additionally, the quality of PlanetiQ RO refractivity profiles is assessed by comparing with the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) data in October 2023. Our results ensure that the capability of PlanetiQ to track signals from any GNSS satellite is larger than the ability of KOMPSAT-5 and PAZ. The mean L1 SNR for PlanetiQ is significantly larger than that of KOMPSAT-5 and PAZ. Thus, PlanetiQ performs better in sounding the deeper troposphere. Furthermore, PlanetiQ’s average penetration height ranges from 0.16 to 0.49 km in all latitudinal bands over water. Generally, the refractivity profiles from all three missions exhibit a small bias when compared to ERA5-derived refractivity and typically remain below 1% above 800 hPa. Full article

The impact of changing climate on vegetation in dryland is a prominent focus of global research. As a typical arid region in the world, Central Asia is an ideal area for studying the associations between climate and arid-area vegetation. Utilizing data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts fifth-generation reanalysis (ECMWF ERA-5) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets, this study investigates the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of the NDVI in Central Asia. It quantitatively assesses the contribution rates of climatic factors to vegetation changes and elucidates the impact of an increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on vegetation changes in Central Asia. The results indicate that the growing seasons’ NDVI exhibited a substantial increase in Central Asia during 1982–2015. Specifically, there was a pronounced “greening” process (0.012/10 yr, p < 0.05) from 1982 to 1998. However, an insignificant “browning” trend was observed after 1998. Spatially, the vegetation NDVI in the growing seasons exhibited a pattern of “greening in the east and browning in the west” of Central Asia. During spring, the dominant theme was the “greening” of vegetation NDVI, although there was noticeable “browning” observed in southwest region of Central Asia. During summer, the “browning” of vegetation NDVI further expanded eastward and impacted the entire western Central Asia in autumn. According to the estimated results computed via the partial differential equation method, the “browning” trend of vegetation NDVI during the growing seasons was guided by increased VPD and decreased rainfall in western Central Asia. Specifically, the increased VPD contributed 52.3% to the observed vegetation NDVI. Atmospheric drought depicted by the increase in VPD significantly lowers the “greening” trend of vegetation NDVI in arid regions, which further aggravates the “browning” trend of vegetation NDVI. Full article

The summer Asian westerly jet (AWJ)’s shifting in latitudes is one important characteristic of its variability and has great impact on the East Asian summer climate. Based on the observed and reanalyzed datasets from the Hadley Center Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST), the Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55), and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5), this study investigates the relationship between the spring tripole North Atlantic SST (TNAT) anomalies and the summer meridional shift of the AWJ (MSJ) for the period of 1958–2020. Through the method of correlation analysis and regression analysis, we show that the ‘+ - +’ TNAT anomalies in spring could induce a northward shift of the AWJ in the following summer. However, such a climatic effect of the spring TNAT anomalies on the MSJ is unstable, exhibiting an evident interdecadal strengthening since the early 1990s. Further analysis reveals that this is related to a strengthened intensity of the spring TNAT anomalies in the most recent three decades. Compared to the early epoch (1958–1993), the stronger spring TNAT anomalies in the post epoch (1994–2020) could cause a stronger pan-tropical climate response until the following summer through a series of ocean–atmosphere interactions. Through Gill responses, the resultant more prominent cooling in the central Pacific in response to the ‘+ - +’ TNAT anomalies induces a pan-tropical cooling in the upper troposphere, which weakens the poleward gradient of the tropospheric temperature over subtropical Asia. As a result, the AWJ shifts northward via a thermal wind effect. By contrast, in the early epoch, the spring TNAT anomalies are relatively weaker, inducing weaker pan-tropical ocean–atmosphere interactions and thus less change in the meridional shit of the summer AWJ. Our results highlight a strengthened lagged effect of the spring TNAT anomalies on the following summer MSJ and have important implications for the seasonal climate predictability over Asia. Full article

This study utilized an infrared spotlight Hyperspectral infrared Atmospheric Sounder (HIRAS) and the Medium Resolution Spectral Imager (MERSI) mounted on FY3D cloud products from the National Satellite Meteorological Center of China to obtain methane profile information. Methane inversion channels near 7.7 μm were selected based on the different distribution of methane weighting functions across different seasons and latitudes, and the selected retrieval channels had a great sensitivity to methane but not to other parameters. The optimization method was employed to retrieve methane profiles using these channels. The ozone profiles, temperature, and water vapor of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fifth-generation reanalysis data (ERA5) were applied to the retrieval process. After validating the methane profile concentrations retrieved by HIRAS, the following conclusions were drawn: (1) compared with Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the Atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container (CARIBIC) flight data, the average correlation coefficient, relative difference, and root mean square error were 0.73, 0.0491, and 18.9 ppbv, respectively, with lower relative differences and root mean square errors in low-latitude regions than in mid-latitude regions. (2) The methane profiles retrieved from May 2019 to September 2021 showed an average error within 60 ppbv compared with the Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (FTIR) station observations of the Infrared Working Group (IRWG) of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). The errors between the a priori and retrieved values, as well as between the retrieved and smoothed values, were larger by around 400–500 hPa. Apart from Toronto and Alzomoni, which had larger peak values in autumn and spring respectively, the mean column averaging kernels typically has a larger peak in summer. Full article

Temperature and precipitation are crucial indicators for investigating climate changes, necessitating precise measurements for rigorous scientific inquiry. While the Fifth Generation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5), ERA5 of the Land Surface (ERA5-Land), and China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) temperature and precipitation products are widely used worldwide, their suitability for the Altay region of arid and semi-arid areas has received limited attention. Here, we used the Altay region as the study area, utilizing meteorological station data and implementing the residual revision method for temperature and the coefficient revision method for precipitation to rectify inaccuracies in monthly temperature and precipitation records from ERA5-Land, ERA5, and CMFD. We evaluate the accuracy of these datasets before and after correction using bias, Taylor diagrams, and root-mean-square error (RMSE) metrics. Additionally, we employ Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite precipitation data (TRMM) as a benchmark to assess the performance of ERA5-Land, ERA5, and CMFD monthly precipitation before and after correction. The results revealed significant differences in the temperature and precipitation capture capabilities of ERA5-Land, ERA5, and CMFD in the Altay region. Overall, these data exhibit substantial errors and are not directly suitable for scientific research. However, we applied residual and coefficient revision methods. After this revision, ERA5-Land, ERA5, and CMFD showed significantly improved temperature and precipitation capture capabilities, especially for ERA5-Land. In terms of temperature, post-revision-CMFD (CMFD_PR) demonstrated better temperature capture capabilities. All three datasets showed weaker performance in mountainous regions compared to plains. Notably, post-revision-ERA5 (ERA5_PR) seemed unsuitable for capturing temperature in the Altay region. Concerning rain, CMFD_PR, post-revision-ERA5-Land (ERA5-Land_PR) and ERA5_PR outperformed TRMM in capturing precipitation. CMFD_PR and ERA5-Land_PR both outperform ERA5_PR. In summary, the revision datasets effectively compensated for the sparse distribution of meteorological stations in the Altay region, providing reliable data support for studying climate change in arid and semi-arid areas. Full article

Previous studies have demonstrated that the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation varies considerably during the boreal winter. Compared to the late winter (January–March) relationship, the early winter (November–December) teleconnection is more uncertain and less understood. In this paper, we revisited this early winter regional ENSO teleconnection using the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) fifth generation reanalysis (ERA5) datasets for the period 1979–2022. It was found that the signal projected well onto the second dominant mode of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), rather than the previously mentioned North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This influence is associated with ENSO-induced dipolar convection anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea (GMCA), which leads to an EAP via exciting Rossby waves propagating northward into the North Atlantic. We further revealed that this ENSO–EAP teleconnection underwent a pronounced interdecadal strengthening around the late 1990s. Prior to the late 1990s, the convective response to ENSO in the GMCA was weak. The atmospheric responses over the Euro-Atlantic were mainly driven by the ENSO-induced convective forcing in the tropical Indian Ocean, which favors an NAO-like pattern. In contrast, since the late 1990s, ENSO has induced stronger precipitation anomalies in the GMCA, which exert a dominant influence on the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation and produce an EAP. These results have useful implications for the further understanding of ENSO-related early winter atmospheric and climate variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Full article