Search Results (15)

The asymmetric effects of global and national factors on agricultural production negatively affect the sustainability of agriculture in Turkey. This study seeks to explore those impacts on wheat prices by focusing on key input prices such as diesel, fertilizers, and substitute barley prices and wheat production. Unlike studies that use crude oil prices as agricultural input parameters, this study aims to address the lack of behavioural variables in time series studies by considering diesel and fertilizer prices. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model analysis examines the effect of barley prices as a substitute for wheat, while the Granger causality analysis is conducted to assess the causal relationships between variables. Additionally, unlike previous studies that primarily focus on causality between variables or the effects of lagged values, this study investigates the dual effects of explanatory variables. Furthermore, impulse response functions are utilized to analyse the dynamic interactions among the variables and to identify symmetric and asymmetric relationships. Granger causality analysis indicates that wheat production in Türkiye is influenced by wheat prices; however, production does not impact prices. Wheat prices are not market-driven, and price interventions aim to ensure agricultural sustainability. The absence of causality between the wheat production amount and its price emerged bilaterally as barley price/wheat production/barley price. An analysis of wheat price responses to shocks in fertilizer and diesel prices reveals an asymmetric pattern. Wheat prices reacted more strongly to negative shocks, while their response to positive shocks was more moderate. These findings indicate the existence of asymmetric relationships between wheat prices and these two agricultural inputs, underscoring the asymmetric nature of price transmission in agricultural markets. They also highlight the policy requirements associated with ensuring food price stability and sustainable agricultural practices as well as a crucial lesson: policymakers in developing countries should prioritize structural reforms over interventionist policies that distort market signals. Full article

This study examined the vertical transmission of wheat price among the main value chain, looking at the pricing behaviour of certain role players in the wheat production/supply and the distribution of bread, which is a major staple food consumed in South Africa. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model was used to analyse the yearly time series data for the period of 2000 to 2022. The results of the stationarity test showed that all variables were of order one, I (1). The study used two pairs, namely farmgate price and retail price, and farmgate price and wholesale price, to examine the existence of asymmetry between these prices, with rainfall and temperature as control variables. The results indicate the existence of a positive long-run asymmetry of 35.9% between the farmgate price of wheat and retail price of bread, and 3.49% asymmetry between the farmgate price and wholesale price of wheat. To develop informed policies on food security, this study suggests that the government should enhance regular access to data and sustain its monitoring and communication of food price information across the whole country. For farmers, a policy on price transparency can help them to establish a public platform to share market prices, ensuring that they receive fair prices. This paper also recommends the provision of subsidies for wheat farmers to help the wheat industry, reduce the cost of bread production, and make bread more affordable and accessible for consumers. Full article

The frequent failures of government-funded broiler enterprises raise concerns about the viability and wisdom of government funding for smallholders. This study therefore investigates the scope for the profitability of the small-scale broiler production and the range of socio-demographic and production issues that are implicated. The study area was the Northern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Province of South Africa, where smallholder broiler production is popular. A total of 75 randomly selected, small-scale broiler producers from three districts in Northern KZN, namely, King Cetshwayo, uMkhanyakude, and Zululand, participated in the survey out of the 134 small-scale broiler producers supported by the government. The analyses employed diverse descriptive analysis and included the calculation of the gross margin to proxy broiler chicken profitability. Three models were fitted for the empirical analysis, namely, the OLS, the Two-Stage Least Squares, and the Stochastic Frontier models, to determine the factors influencing profitability, correcting for endogeneity, and computing the technical efficiency and inefficiency of the small-scale broiler production system. The results show that the primary production and marketing challenges were the lack of infrastructure (abattoirs and refrigeration) and the lack of formal markets, including the lack of market information and high transport costs. On average, the sampled government-funded small-scale broiler enterprises achieved a positive gross profit margin of 31 percent, which is relatively low when compared to the small-scale farmers that work for a large-scale enterprise—the Commercial Chicken Farm, near Pietermaritzburg. It was revealed that the profits are significantly influenced by gender, farmgate price, access to market information, and access to extension services. The production system was also shown to be operating at a reasonably high technical efficiency, which is strongly influenced by flock size, feeds, and labour input, while age, gender, and educational level contributed to technical inefficiency. The recent crisis that was experienced by the poultry industry in South Africa linked to the outbreak of the Avian Flu and its devastating consequences point up the urgency for more investment in infrastructure to enhance bird safety at affordable costs. Although the government-funded small-scale broiler enterprises in Northern KZN were found to be viable, it is evident that they can be better, possibly through more capacity building and collective action to take full advantage of the economies of scale. Full article

The Loess Plateau, with a large area of marginal land, holds the potential to produce 62–106 Tg per year of switchgrass biomass; however, the economic feasibility of producing bioenergy in the region is unclear. The farm-gate feedstock production (FGFP) cost of switchgrass was calculated in a spatially explicit way by taking the geographic variation in crop yield, soil properties, land quality, and input costs into consideration in order to evaluate the economic performance of bioenergy production. Cost–supply curves were constructed to explore the energy supply potential of switchgrass feedstock. The calculations were conducted using ArcGIS in a 1 km grid and all the evaluations were conducted under different agricultural management practice (AMP) scenarios in parallel. The FGFP costs showed significant spatial variation ranging from 95 to 7373 CNY (Chinese Yuan) per tonne⁻¹ and that the most economically desirable areas are scattered in the south and southeast region. The weighted average FGFP costs are 710, 1125, and 1596 CNY per tonne⁻¹ for small bale (SB), large bale (LB), and chipping (CP) harvest methods, respectively. The projected energy supply potential is 1927 PJ (Petajoules) per year⁻¹, of which 30–93% can be supplied below the market prices of different fossil fuels according to feedstock formats. Compared to current biomass residual pricing, 50–66 Tg (Teragrams) switchgrass feedstock is competitive. The results demonstrated that the Loess Plateau holds the potential to produce bioenergy that is economically feasible. This study provides a methodological framework for spatially explicit evaluation of the economic performance of perennial energy crops. Detailed information obtained from this study can be used to select the optimal locations and AMPs to produce feedstock production at minimum cost. Full article

During the pandemic, health and environmental issues were re-evaluated, stimulating interest in organic food. Organic milk is more beneficial than conventional milk in terms of the health-promoting substances (e.g., vitamins, fatty acids), particularly regarding its protein and lipid fractions. Poland is the main producer of cow’s milk in the EU, but only 0.2% of this production is organic. To identify the antecedents and obstacles to increasing organic milk production in Poland, the aim of this study is to explore the low level of organic cow’s milk output in Poland compared with sector leaders in the EU. We analyzed statistics on milk production, including unpublished data collected by the Agricultural and Food Quality Inspection, Poland, with the use of descriptive statistics and frequency distributions. Over the period 2010–2020, the number of farms producing and selling organic milk and the number of farms with organic pastures and meadows decreased significantly in Poland. A limited number of certified farms sell their milk as organic. If all production of organic milk was sold as organic, the supply would have increased by 56% in 2020. Organic milk processing is highly concentrated which is an obstacle to the development of organic milk farming. Due to its high instability and the spatial differences in the locations of sellers (producers) and buyers (processors) and inconsistent production volumes, the supply of organic cow’s raw milk does not meet the demand from Polish dairies. Cooperation between producers and processors is essential. Providing organic dairy farms with production and market advice, as well as technical support, is crucial for the development of farms and the organic milk sector as a whole, as is, to a certain extent, evidenced by Austria. The specific nature of the raw milk market requires the procurement of organic milk on a lasting basis regarding guarantees of purchase and farmgate prices. In this way, the continuity of organic raw milk supply would be secured and the sector of organic dairy products should grow. Full article

Positive mathematical programming (PMP) has a substantial number of applications in the field of agricultural and resource economics. Their focus has often been placed on the simulation analysis of farmers’ response to drastic changes in exogenous factors especially brought about by policy changes. In the present study, an exploration was made to widen the application area of the PMP approach, targeting farmers’ expectation toward the farm-gate price of rice in comparison with that of wheat under the policy to suppress overproduction. When domestic consumption is mature and the regulation of production by the government is present, farmers’ expectation toward the farm-gate price of a crop can be assumed to fall in response to an increased allocation of land area to produce the crop. The degree of the fall is defined as the expectation fall index (EFI) in the present study. A proposition was made as to the procedure for quantifying EFI using the PMP approach with statistical datasets of multiple years retrieved from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries. The present study is considered to have provided a basis to discuss the formation processes of farmers’ attitudes toward policy measures. Full article

The dairy sector in the European Union (EU) has experienced policy changes and market shocks recently. Using the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, this paper explores regional market integration, the feedback between market shocks and price dynamics, and the link between EU’s cheese export markets and energy market. This paper assesses and compares which influencing factors are typically associated with intra-EU and extra-EU cheese export price movement with regards to shocks to crude oil price, farm-gate raw milk price, and consumer price index (CPI) for food and cheese production of six representative EU member states, respectively. Using generalized impulse response functions, this paper finds that EU’s internal cheese export market is not well integrated, while EU’s external market is well integrated, with France as an exception. It also finds that the external cheese export market is vulnerable to shocks from the energy market compared to the internal market. Raw milk prices from the upstream supply chain have strong spill-over effects on EU’s internal cheese export market, yet their impact on extra-EU cheese export prices is relatively less significant. The movement patterns of extra-EU cheese export prices of Ireland and the UK show similar patterns in the long run. It is concluded that the dynamics of cheese export prices in the internal and external markets of the EU are different under market shocks. Full article

This study analyzes the effects of N fertilizer application rates on profitability of growing switchgrass and using the feedstock in a pyrolysis biorefinery facility to create a source of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) supply in Tennessee. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is a perennial bunchgrass native to North America with traits suitable for biofuel and co-product production. Previous chemical analysis has shown that ash content in switchgrass is related to the amount of nitrogen applied to the field, while at the biorefinery level, the percentage ash content reduces the biorefinery fuel output. To obtain optimal nitrogen (N) application rates for the switchgrass producers and the biorefinery, a two-part analysis is employed. First, a partial budgeting profitability analysis is conducted for this cropping enterprise at the farm-gate level without considering downstream implications of biomass quality, i.e., ash content. Second, the effects of higher ash content as a percentage of the feedstock on biorefinery output are analyzed. Results show farm-gate profit is maximized when N fertilizer is applied at 111 kg/ha, while as a result of increased production levels and decreased percentage ash content, biorefinery profit is maximized when N is applied at 157 kg/ha. Lower ash could lead to premium prices paid to switchgrass producers if higher quality feedstock were to be demanded as part of an integrated biofuel industry. Full article

The COVID-19 pandemic has particularly affected the supply of perishable foods such as vegetables, which could adversely affect food and nutrition security. Here, we study the mechanisms by which COVID-19 has affected vegetable production and the coping strategies adopted by smallholder farmers. We use cross-sectional data collected through individual interviews on a random sample of 521 vegetable producers in north-western Nigeria. The perceptions of respondents, measured on a 5-point Likert scale (from 1—not affected, to 5—severely affected), shows that COVID-19 had an average effect of 3.07 (±1.23) on vegetable production. Farmers also reported challenges in accessing farm inputs and storing or selling fresh vegetable produced. In response, farmers reduced market-oriented vegetable production, produced more vegetables for own consumption, added value through own home processing and storage, explored new markets, and accepted lower farmgate selling prices. A multivariate probit regression shows that socio-economic factors such as age, household size, marital status, challenges in accessing inputs, and perceptions of the effects of COVID-19 influenced farmers’ decisions to adopt particular coping strategies. To sustain vegetable supplies, policy makers should consider investing more in market-oriented strategies such as vegetable processing and storage, which individual farmers may not be able to afford due to high costs, lack of information and required knowledge on good agronomic practices, postharvest handling, storage and market. Public extension services can contribute to help farmers to adapt better. Full article

Recently, the world has experienced striking economic and policy changes, and subsequent uncertainties have impacts on dairy trade price fluctuations. The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) methodology was established in this paper to better understand international butter export prices transmission, the feedback between the economic context changes and price fluctuations, and the link between the global butter market, energy market, and other commodity markets. We assessed which key factors are typically associated with butter export price movements with regards to shocks to crude oil price, palm oil price, farm-gate raw milk price, exchange rates, and consumer price index (CPI) for food of the EU, New Zealand, the U.S., and the rest of world (RoW), respectively. Using generalized impulse response functions, this study found that decreases in farm-gate raw milk price could be swiftly transmitted to butter export prices of not only a home country but other foreign countries. However, palm oil price and crude oil price merely affects global butter export prices. We also found that U.S. dollar depreciations against the Euro will cause a decline in U.S. butter export price. It is concluded that butter export markets are not well-integrated, yet butter export prices of New Zealand and the U.S. are highly linked. Full article

This paper focuses on the difference in inter-group and intra-group price of Yesso scallop (Patinopecten yessoensis) and the simulation accuracy of three different exponential smoothing models in the price. Based on the farm-gate price and wholesale price data of P. yessoensis in Changhai county from January 2017 to December 2018, this study uses the Wilcoxon rank sum test to compare the inter- and intra-group price and applies simple exponential smoothing (SES), Holt’s linear trend method, and Holt-Winters’ additive method to simulate and predict the price. The results suggest that (i) to improve economic benefits, it is necessary to formulate reasonable farming area and establish low-density ecological cultivation mode; (ii) the price’s Akaike information criterion (AIC) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values by the SES model are optimal, and the MAPE value is lower than 4%; and (iii) the result of SES analysis shows no obvious change from January to March 2019. Full article

Pennycress can be used as a renewable biomass because its harvested seeds can be converted into biofuel, supplying, for example the aviation industry. Pennycress can be adopted as a winter cover crop to make extra profit in addition to summer cash crops. This study ascertains influences on row crop farmers’ interest in growing pennycress to supply a biofuels industry. The study uses data from a survey of row-crop farmers in seven US states. Effects of farm and farmer attributes on acceptance of a farmgate pennycress price are measured. Nearly 58% were interested in growing pennycress if profitable. Among those interested, 54.4% would accept the farmgate pennycress price offered. Positive influences on interest included farm size, education, and familiarity with pennycress, while concern about knowledge on growing pennycress, and use of no-till practices had negative influences. Farmers aged 40 to 65 were more likely to accept the price, while share of rented hectares and no debt had positive influences. More risk-averse farmers and those using no-till were less likely to accept. Results suggest that the majority of row crop farmers would be interested in growing pennycress if profitable, while the overall willingness to accept the farmgate price was when it was at $0.28/kg. Full article

This paper addresses the issue of unfair trade practices, investigating the drivers of the differences between farm-gate and free-on-board (FOB) prices in the most important Arabica coffee producing countries worldwide: Brazil, Guatemala, Colombia, Honduras, Peru, and Ethiopia. Our study looks at those differences taking into account the literature on governance in agri-food chains, with a focus on each country’s domestic market. We performed panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) estimates in ICO and World Bank data, covering the period from 2007 to 2016. In the paper we analyze (i) property rights as a proxy of transaction costs, once it brings more transparency and support to negotiations; (ii) access to electricity as a proxy of supporting infrastructure in communication and information activities, and (iii) quality of roads and quality of ports as proxies of transportation infrastructure. Our results show that heterogeneity in institutions and infrastructure are key in explaining the differences between farm-gate and FOB prices. The transaction costs derived from institutional failures and infrastructure gaps, lead to the use of intermediaries in the coffee supply chain, and this reduces the margin for coffee farmers. Actions that aim to reduce these inefficiencies bring more transparency and lower transaction costs, thereby directly contributing to the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Full article

With 15–20% of Indonesian oil palms located, without a legal basis and permits, within the forest zone (‘Kawasan hutan’), international concerns regarding deforestation affect the totality of Indonesian palm oil export. ‘Forest zone oil palm’ (FZ-OP) is a substantive issue that requires analysis and policy change. While spatial details of FZ-OP remain contested, we review literature on (1) the legal basis of the forest zone and its conversion, (2) social stratification in oil palm production (large-scale, plasma and independent growers), and (3) environmental consequences of forest conversion to FZ-OP, before discussing policy options in a range of social and ecological contexts. Policy options range from full regularization (as FZ-OP stands could meet international forest definitions), to conditional acceptance of diversified smallholder plantings in ‘agroforestry concessions’, to gradually phasing out FZ-OP and eviction/destruction. A nuanced and differentiated approach to FZ-OP is needed, as certification of legality along supply chains is vulnerable to illegal levies and corruption. Corporate actors trading internationally can avoid use of uncertified raw materials, effectively shifting blame and depressing farmgate prices for domestic-market palm oil, but this will not return forest conditions or stop further forest conversion. We discuss an agenda for follow-up policy research. Full article

Considering the current low prices for coarse wool (fibre diameter > 30 µm), a grading up transition to a shedding flock may eliminate wool harvesting costs and increase sheep farm profit. This transition could be achieved by breeding non-shedding ewes with Wiltshire rams. A bio-economic system-dynamics model of a pastoral sheep farming enterprise was used to simulate this grading up transition from 2580 Romney ewes to a similarly-sized flock of fully shedding third or fourth cross Wiltshire–Romney ewes. The total annual sheep feed demand was constrained within a ±5% range to minimise disruption to the on-farm beef cattle enterprise. Wool harvesting expenses were eliminated after seven years of transition, and with reduced feed demand for wool growth, the post-transition shedding flocks had more ewes producing more lambs and achieving greater annual profit compared with the base Romney flock. The net present values of transition were 7% higher than the maintenance of the base Romney flock with a farmgate wool price of $2.15/kg. Results suggest that coarse wool-producing farmers should consider a grading up transition to a shedding flock, and the collection of data on the production of Wiltshire–Romney sheep in New Zealand would improve the accuracy of model predictions. Full article