Search Results (30)

The Most Valuable Player Algorithm (MVPA) is a recently developed metaheuristic optimizer with a simple competition-based framework; however, its search capability is limited by insufficient information interaction and weak diversity maintenance. To address these issues, this study proposes a Multi-Strategy Enhanced Most Valuable Player Algorithm (MSEMVPA). Three complementary strategies are developed: an Adaptive Historical Differential Competition Strategy (AHDCS) that introduces historical search information and adaptive differential guidance to enhance exploration, an Adaptive Multi-Elite Reorganization Strategy (AMERS) that integrates diverse elite information to improve exploitation, and a Business Analysis Strategy (BAS) that reconstructs inferior individuals to maintain population diversity. The proposed MSEMVPA is evaluated on the CEC2017 benchmark suite through comparative experiments, ablation studies, convergence analysis, statistical tests, and computational complexity analysis. Furthermore, MSEMVPA is employed to optimize a multilayer perceptron model for enterprise bankruptcy prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that MSEMVPA achieves improved optimization accuracy and robustness compared with the original MVPA and several competitive algorithms. The results indicate that the proposed multi-strategy framework provides an effective approach for enhancing MVPA and solving complex optimization problems. Full article

To improve the optimization performance of the original Bounty Hunter Optimizer (BHO) in complex search environments, this paper proposes a quantum computing and adaptive mechanism-based BHO, named QCAMBHO. The proposed algorithm integrates three complementary strategies: quantum-computing-enhanced initialization, adaptive Lévy flight, and an adaptive differential operator. These mechanisms are designed to improve population diversity, strengthen global exploration, and enhance later-stage exploitation. The performance of QCAMBHO is evaluated on the CEC2017 and CEC2022 benchmark test suites. Experimental results show that QCAMBHO achieves competitive or superior optimization performance compared with several advanced algorithms in terms of convergence accuracy, stability, and robustness. Ablation experiments further confirm the positive contribution of each strategy and the synergistic effect of their integration. To examine its practical applicability, QCAMBHO is further used to optimize the key parameters of Kernel Extreme Learning Machine (KELM), and a QCAMBHO-KELM model is constructed for enterprise bankruptcy prediction. The results show that QCAMBHO-KELM achieves better overall classification performance than BHO-KELM and other comparison models across multiple evaluation metrics, including accuracy, Matthews correlation coefficient, sensitivity, specificity, precision, recall, and F1-score. These findings indicate that QCAMBHO not only provides an effective optimizer for complex numerical problems but also offers a promising decision-support tool for improving the accuracy and reliability of enterprise bankruptcy early warning. Full article

Enterprise financial risk prediction is a fundamental task in financial risk management, yet its performance is often hindered by severe class imbalance, cross-enterprise heterogeneity, and the limited availability of labeled risky samples. These challenges are particularly pronounced in few-shot settings, where conventional machine learning and deep classification models tend to suffer from unstable representation learning, feature collapse, and weak decision boundaries. To address this issue, this study proposes a hierarchical metric learning framework for few-shot enterprise financial risk prediction on imbalanced tabular data. The framework integrates a state-space feature embedding network, an Adaptive Spectral Decomposition and Multi-Scale State Embedding module, and a Hierarchical Metric Manifold Alignment mechanism to enhance risk-sensitive representation learning, preserve geometric consistency across embedding levels, and improve prototype-based discrimination in the metric space. Experiments are conducted on three public datasets, namely American Bankruptcy, Corporate Financial Risk Assessment, and Enterprise Financial Network, under a unified 2-way 20-shot setting. The proposed method consistently achieves the best overall performance across Precision, Recall, Accuracy, F1-score, and AUC, with AUC values of 0.9526, 0.9687, and 0.9716 on the three datasets, respectively. Ablation studies and visual analyses further show that the proposed framework improves intra-class compactness, inter-class separability, and classification robustness under highly imbalanced conditions. These findings indicate that the proposed method provides an effective and robust machine learning solution for enterprise financial risk prediction and early warning in data-scarce financial scenarios. Full article

Enterprise bankruptcy prediction is a critical research issue in financial risk early warning, credit evaluation, and investment decision-making. To address the limitations of traditional methods in handling high-dimensional, nonlinear, and complex financial data, including parameter sensitivity, susceptibility to local optima, and insufficient prediction stability, this study proposes a multi-strategy enhanced Beaver Behavior Optimizer and applies it to optimize kernel extreme learning machines, constructing the MEBBO KELM prediction model. Three improvement mechanisms are introduced, including an elite pool enhanced exploration strategy, a stochastic centroid reverse learning strategy, and a leader guided boundary control strategy, which improve population diversity, global search capability, boundary handling capacity, and convergence accuracy. The proposed algorithm is evaluated on CEC2017 and CEC2022 benchmark datasets and compared with EWOA, HPHHO, MELGWO, TACPSO, CFOA, ALA, AOO, RIME, and BBO. Statistical analyses are conducted using the Wilcoxon rank sum test and the Friedman test. The results demonstrate that MEBBO achieves superior solution accuracy and stability, indicating strong global optimization capability and robustness. Further experiments on the Wieslaw Corporate Bankruptcy Dataset show that MEBBO-KELM achieves strong and robust performance across multiple evaluation metrics, including ACC, MCC, Sensitivity, Specificity, Precision, Recall, and F1 score. Specifically, ACC reaches 79.7578, MCC reaches 0.6050, and F1 score reaches 78.8504, confirming its effectiveness. Full article

Bankruptcy prediction is currently a widely researched topic, as it typically results from a chain of negative events. Logistic Regression (LR) is one of the standard prediction tools; however, with advances in technology, machine learning (ML) methods are gaining prominence and demonstrating improvements in performance and accuracy. It remains inconclusive whether ML methods significantly outperform traditional approaches such as LR in bankruptcy prediction. In this study, we identified the most commonly applied basic ML techniques—namely, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Support Vector Machines (SVMs), and Decision Trees (DTs)—which are frequently used in the literature for classification tasks. These methods were selected for empirical comparison with LR to evaluate their relative predictive performance and potential advantages in bankruptcy forecasting. In the EU, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) constitute more than 99% of the economy; however, only a few survive beyond five years. This study examines bankruptcy prediction in the specific context of the Slovak Republic, using a sample of 2754 SME manufacturing enterprises from 2020 to 2021 and 3158 from 2022 to 2023. All models show good predictive performance; however, the small statistical difference between the results does not conclusively demonstrate the superiority of ML methods over LR. Full article

Despite the rapid expansion of AI and machine-learning techniques in bankruptcy prediction, classical statistical methods such as discriminant analysis and logistic regression remain relevant because of their transparency and interpretability. These characteristics are crucial for stakeholders who require understandable decision-making tools, especially in NACE Rev. 2 Section I—Accommodation and Food Service Activities, a sector characterized by high operating leverage, vulnerability to economic shocks, and strong macroeconomic importance. The study aims to evaluate and compare the predictive performance of discriminant analysis and logistic regression for bankruptcy prediction and to identify key predictors that can serve as managerial early-warning signals for companies in crisis across B9 countries. The sample of 4395 companies was used. The classification ability of all models is assessed using multiple performance metrics, including overall accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, the F1-score, the F2-score, the Matthews correlation coefficient, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The results show that both approaches achieve consistently high predictive performance, with all major metrics exceeding 0.92 on the test sample of prosperous and non-prosperous enterprises. Six significant bankruptcy predictors are identified for each method, with three common indicators: financial leverage, total liabilities to assets, and return on costs. The comparative analysis results in a methodological “draw,” confirming comparable predictive power. These findings reaffirm the relevance of classical prediction models and identify key financial indicators that can be used as practical early-warning signals by managers in the sector. Full article

Financial distress prediction models are widely used to support risk management. However, economic turbulence, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can disrupt the relationships between financial indicators and distress, thus threatening the stability and accuracy of the models’ predictions. In this study, the stability of bankruptcy prediction models is examined on a large sample of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Slovakia. Three periods are distinguished: the pre-pandemic years 2018–2019, the COVID-19 pandemic years 2020–2021, and the post-pandemic recovery years 2022–2023. Two approaches to model construction are compared: separate models are estimated for each period, and a single comprehensive model covering all three periods is constructed with a period-specific indicator among the predictors. Publicly available financial data and machine learning methods are employed, and model performance is evaluated using common classification metrics. Differences in performance are revealed, indicating whether period-specific models provide superior predictive accuracy or whether a universal model can adapt to changing economic conditions. The robustness, stability, predictive power, and practical applicability of both approaches are assessed, and the influence of economic fluctuations on accuracy is demonstrated. The findings provide guidance on selecting modelling strategies across different economic environments and offer recommendations for further developing and implementing predictive models in volatile financial conditions. Full article

Enterprise bankruptcy prediction is a critical task in financial risk management. Traditional methods, such as logistic regression and decision trees, rely heavily on structured financial data, which limits their ability to capture complex relational networks and unstructured industry information. Heterogeneous graph neural networks (HGNNs) offer a solution by modeling multiple relationships between enterprises. However, current models struggle with financial risk graph data challenges, such as the oversimplification of internal financial features and the lack of dynamic imputation for missing external topological features. To address these issues, we propose HGNN-EBP, an enterprise bankruptcy prediction algorithm that integrates both internal and external features. The model constructs a multi-relational heterogeneous graph that combines structured financial data, unstructured textual information, and real-time industry data. A multi-scale graph convolution network captures diverse relationships, while a Transformer-based self-attention mechanism dynamically imputes missing external topological features. Finally, a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) predicts bankruptcy probability. Experimental results on a dataset of 32,459 Chinese enterprises demonstrate that HGNN-EBP outperforms traditional models, especially in handling relational diversity, missing features, and dynamic financial risk data. Full article

The agriculture sector is increasingly challenged to maintain productivity and sustainability amidst environmental, marketplace, and geopolitical pressures. While precision agriculture enhances physical production, the financial resilience of agricultural firms has been understudied. In this study, machine learning (ML) methods, including logistic regression (LR), decision trees (DTs), and artificial neural networks (ANNs), are employed to predict the bankruptcy risk for Central and Eastern European (CEE) farming firms. All models consistently showed high performance, with AUC values exceeding 0.95. DTs had the highest overall accuracy (95.72%) and F1 score (0.9768), LR had the highest recall (0.9923), and ANNs had the highest discrimination power (AUC = 0.960). Visegrad, Balkan, Baltic, and Eastern Europe subregional models featured economic and structural heterogeneity, reflecting the need for local financial risk surveillance. The results support the development of AI-based early warning systems for agricultural finance, enabling smarter decision-making, regional adaptation, and enhanced sustainability in the sector. Full article

Debt levels are a crucial factor when assessing the financial stability of agricultural firms, and excessive indebtedness is usually the most important indicator of financial distress. As agriculture is a capital-intensive sector with a high reliance on borrowed funds, firms in this sector are more vulnerable to insolvency. This study examines the performance of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and decision trees (DTs) in predicting the bankruptcy of Slovak agricultural enterprises. In an attempt to compare the models’ performances, the most consequential indebtedness ratios are investigated through machine learning approaches. ANN and DT models are found to perform significantly better than traditional forecast methods. ANN achieved an AUC of 0.9500, accuracy of 96.37%, precision of 96.60%, recall of 99.68%, and an F1-score of 98.12%, determining its robust predictive ability. DT performed a little better on AUC (0.9550) and achieved an accuracy of 97.78%, precision of 98.69%, recall of 99.01%, and an F1-score of 98.85%, determining its predictive ability and interpretability. These findings confirm the potential for applying AI-based models to enhance financial risk assessment. This study provides informative results for financial analysts, policymakers, and corporate managers in support of early intervention strategies. Additional research would be required to explore state-of-the-art AI techniques to further refine bankruptcy forecasting and financial decision-making in vulnerable sectors like agriculture. Full article

Businesses are influenced by the cyclical nature of economic development and distinct stages in the corporate life cycle. Accurate early-warning mechanisms are crucial to mitigating bankruptcy risk, enabling timely rescue measures. This article analyses the reliability of various bankruptcy prediction models, including those by Kliestik et al., Poznanski, the modified Zmijewski, Jakubik–Teply, and Virag–Hajdu, across corporate life cycle stages. Reliability was assessed using five metrics: accuracy, balanced accuracy, F1 and F2 scores, and the Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC). The sample included over 5000 SMEs from Central Europe, with financial data from 2022. The findings reveal a U-shaped trend in financial distress risk, with start-ups and declining enterprises facing the highest risks. The results indicate that the Kliestik et al. model shows consistent reliability across all life cycle stages, while the Poznanski model shows more variability. Conversely, the Virag–Hajdu model exhibits significant variability in reliability, with its best performance observed during the Decline stage. The modified Zmijewski and Jakubik–Teply models show lower MCC values overall, with the modified Zmijewski model performing better at predicting the financial distress of mature shake-out firms compared to other stages. Full article

This study addresses a significant gap in the literature by comparing the effectiveness of traditional statistical methods with artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in predicting bankruptcy among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Traditional bankruptcy prediction models often fail to account for the unique characteristics of SMEs, such as their vulnerability due to lean structures and reliance on short-term credit. This research utilizes a comprehensive database of 7104 Belgian SMEs to evaluate these models. Belgium was selected due to its unique regulatory and economic environment, which presents specific challenges and opportunities for bankruptcy prediction in SMEs. Our findings reveal that AI techniques significantly outperform traditional statistical methods in predicting bankruptcy, demonstrating superior predictive accuracy. Furthermore, our analysis highlights that a firm’s position within the Global Value Chain (GVC) impacts prediction accuracy. Specifically, firms operating upstream in the production process show lower prediction performance, suggesting that bankruptcy risk may propagate upward along the value chain. This effect was measured by analyzing the firm’s GVC position as a variable in the prediction models, with upstream firms exhibiting greater vulnerability to the financial distress of downstream partners. These insights are valuable for practitioners, emphasizing the need to consider specific performance factors based on the firm’s position within the GVC when assessing bankruptcy risk. By integrating both AI techniques and GVC positioning into bankruptcy prediction models, this study provides a more nuanced understanding of bankruptcy risks for SMEs and offers practical guidance for managing and mitigating these risks. Full article

The prediction of bankruptcy risk poses a formidable challenge in the fields of economics and finance, particularly within the healthcare industry, where it carries significant economic implications. The burgeoning field of healthcare electronic commerce, continuously evolving through technological advancements and changing regulations, introduces additional layers of complexity. We collected financial data from 1265 U.S. healthcare industries to predict bankruptcy based on 40 financial ratios using multi-class classification machine learning models across various industry subsectors and market capitalizations. The exceptionally high post-tuning accuracy rates, exceeding 90%, along with high-performance metrics solidified the robustness and exceptional predictive capability of the gradient boosting model in bankruptcy prediction. The results also demonstrate the power and sensitivity of financial ratios in predicting bankruptcy based on financial ratios. The Altman models highlight the return on investment (ROI) as the most important parameter for predicting bankruptcy risk in healthcare industries. The Ohlson model identifies return on assets (ROA) as an important ratio specifically for predicting bankruptcy risk within industry subsectors. Furthermore, it underscores the significance of both ROA and the enterprise value to earnings before interest and taxes (EV/EBIT) ratios as important parameters for predicting bankruptcy based on market capitalization. Recognizing these ratios enables proactive decision making that enhances resilience. Our findings contribute to informed risk management strategies, allowing for better management of healthcare industries in crises like those experienced in 2022 and even on a global scale. Full article

Predicting bankruptcy within selected industries is crucial because of the potential ripple effects and unique characteristics of those industries. It serves as a risk management tool, guiding various stakeholders in making decisions. While artificial intelligence (AI) has shown high success rates in classification tasks, it remains uncertain whether its use significantly enhances the potential for early warning of impending problems. The following question arises: will classical methods eventually replace the effectiveness of these advanced techniques? This paper sheds light on the fact that even classical methods continue to achieve results that are not far behind, highlighting their enduring importance in financial analysis. This paper aims to develop bankruptcy prediction models for the chemical industry in Slovakia and to compare their effectiveness. Predictions are generated using the classical logistic regression (LR) method as well as AI techniques, artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector machines (SVMs), and decision trees (DTs). The analysis aims to determine which of the employed methods is the most efficient. The research sample consists of circa 600 enterprises operating in the Slovak chemical industry. The selection of eleven financial indicators used for bankruptcy prediction was grounded in prior research and existing literature. The results show that all of the explored methods yielded highly similar outcomes. Therefore, determining the clear superiority of any single method is a difficult task. This might be partially due to the potentially reduced quality of the input data. In addition to classical statistical methods employed in econometrics, there is an ongoing development of AI-based models and their hybrid forms. The following question arises: to what extent can these newer approaches enhance accuracy and effectiveness? Full article

Predicting the risk of corporate bankruptcy is one of the most important challenges for researchers dealing with the issue of financial health evaluation. The risk of corporate bankruptcy is most often assessed with the use of early warning models. The results of these models are significantly influenced by the financial features entering them. The aim of this paper was to select the most suitable financial features for bankruptcy prediction. The research sample consisted of enterprises conducting a business within the Slovak construction industry. The features were selected using the domain knowledge (DK) approach and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO). The performance of VRS DEA (Variable Returns to Scale Data Envelopment Analysis) models was assessed with the use of accuracy, ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) curve, AUC (Area Under the Curve) and Somers’ D. The results show that the DK+DEA model achieved slightly better AUC and Somers’ D compared to the LASSO+DEA model. On the other hand, the LASSO+DEA model shows a smaller deviation in the number of identified businesses on the financial distress frontier. The added value of this research is the finding that the application of DK features achieves significant results in predicting businesses’ bankruptcy. The added value for practice is the selection of predictors of bankruptcy for the analyzed sample of enterprises. Full article