Search Results (104)

This study develops a data-driven predictive framework integrating hybrid feature selection, interpretable machine learning, and uncertainty quantification to forecast Olympic medal performance among elite nations. Focusing on the top ten countries from Paris 2024, the analysis employs a three-stage feature selection procedure combining Spearman correlation screening, random forest embedded importance, and the Caterpillar Fungus Optimizer (CFO) to identify stable long-term predictors. A novel test variable, rank, capturing historical competitive strength, and a refined continuous host-effect indicator derived from gravity-type trade models are introduced. Two complementary modeling strategies—a two-way fixed-effects econometric model and a CFO-optimized random forest—are implemented and validated. SHAP, LIME, and partial dependence plots enhance model interpretability, revealing nonlinear mechanisms underlying medal outcomes. Kernel density estimation generates probabilistic interval forecasts for Los Angeles 2028. Results demonstrate that historical performance and event-specific characteristics dominate medal predictions, while macroeconomic factors (GDP, population) and conventional host status contribute marginally once related variables are controlled. Consistent variable rankings across models and close alignment between 2028 projections and 2024 outcomes validate the framework’s robustness and practical applicability for sports policy and resource allocation decisions. Full article

Vegetation indices (VIs) enable rapid, non-destructive biochemical monitoring in olive fruits, yet their performance across diverse germplasm and ripening stages remains systematically uncharacterized. This exploratory screening systematically evaluated 87 VIs for predicting chlorophyll and polyphenol content across 31 cultivars at four ripening stages, prioritizing genetic diversity to establish species-level biochemical–spectral relationships through integration of hyperspectral data (380–1080 nm) with biochemical analyses. Modified Chlorophyll Absorption Ratio Index 3 (MCARI 3) and Transformed Chlorophyll Absorption Ratio Index (TCARI) achieved 91 strong correlations (|r| ≥ 0.9) across 124 cultivar-stage combinations. High-performing indices incorporated 550 nm with red/red-edge bands (670–710 nm) and non-linear formulations. Moderate inter-cultivar variability indicated that cultivar-specific calibrations may be necessary. Principal component analysis captured the totality of variance, revealing three biochemical clusters, high-chlorophyll cultivars (n = 5; 91.8 and 7385.6 mg kg⁻¹ chlorophyll/polyphenols, respectively), typical-range cultivars (n = 22; 126.6 and 4016.8 mg kg⁻¹), and elite cultivars (n = 5; 790.4 and 5799.8 mg kg⁻¹), demonstrating VIs’ capacity for cultivar discrimination. Chlorophyll degradation exhibited conserved patterns, supporting universal tracking models. Conversely, polyphenol dynamics displayed marked genotype-dependency, with cultivars showing positive, negative, or minimal variation, yielding non-significant population-level effects, despite robust cultivar-specific trends. Full article

This study investigates the joint mechanical power (JMP) distribution in the half squat (HS) exercise through the Power-Based Training (PBT) framework, with the primary aim of providing preliminary methodological validation of this analytical approach and illustrating its capacity to characterize joint contributions across movement phases and load levels. Five professional weightlifters performed HS under five progressive loads (20–80% 1RM), while kinematics and kinetics were recorded with a Vicon motion capture system and force platforms. JMP at the hip, knee, and ankle was analyzed in four distinct movement phases. Results indicated that joint contributions varied with load and phase. Under light loads the knee tended to produce most power. As load increased, contributions shifted proximally: the hip increased both absorption and production, and the ankle’s relative contribution grew in the final lifting phase. The main eccentric (lowering deceleration) and concentric (lifting acceleration) phases concentrated the highest JMP values, though differences between phases diminished at higher loads, suggesting a more homogeneous effort distribution. These findings support the feasibility of the PBT framework for methodological joint-level analysis. Given the pilot scope and purposive elite sample, results are not intended for population inference but inform about methodological applications in training, rehabilitation, and injury-risk assessment. Full article

This article explains why the European Union has not replicated Central and Eastern Europe’s (CEE) transformation in the Western Balkans (WB6). Drawing on the original External Incentives Model (EIM) conditions, the article argues that a different political climate in the WB6 requires attention to additional contextual conditions within the EIM framework to show how the weakened linkage between compliance and rewards emerges. Geopolitical enlargement and the presence of rival powers, a stability-over-democracy approach, bilateral vetoes, and the EU’s ongoing “permacrisis” negatively impact determinacy and EU credibility, while also increasing adoption costs. At the WB6 level, reforms become partial and reversible/at-risk, and even in cases of real progress (Montenegro and Albania), institutions remain fragile. The current arrangement serves both Brussels and local elites, providing short-term stability and keeping the WB6 on the EU path at the price of tolerating domestic capture and reforms without transformation. Yet, this arrangement carries a long-term risk of eroding the EU’s transformative power, as public dissatisfaction with local elites is not met with EU support, and rival powers exploit identity ties and elite channels. Full article

Groundwater sustains more than 60% of irrigation in Pakistan’s Indus Basin, yet accelerating depletion, rising salinity and fragmented governance threaten agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods. Although new monitoring technologies and provincial water laws have emerged, a persistent gap remains between scientific evidence, policy frameworks and farmer practices. This study applies the Science–Policy–Practice Interface (SPPI) to examine these disconnects, drawing on qualitative data from multi-stakeholder focus groups and interviews with farmers, scientists and policymakers in Punjab, Sindh and federal agencies. The analysis identifies five governance challenges: weak knowledge integration, fragmented institutions, political resistance to regulation, limited adaptive capacity and under-recognition of farmer-led innovations. While depletion is well documented, it rarely informs enforceable rules and informal practices often outweigh formal regulation. At the same time, farmers contribute adaptive strategies, such as recharge initiatives and water-sharing arrangements, that remain invisible to policy. The findings highlight both the potential and the limits of SPPI. It provides a valuable lens for aligning science, policy and practice but cannot overcome entrenched political economy barriers such as subsidies and elite capture. The study contributes theoretically by extending SPPI to irrigation-dependent aquifers and practically by identifying opportunities for hybrid knowledge systems to support adaptive and equitable groundwater governance in Pakistan and other LMICs. Full article

This study investigated the kinematic characteristics of center of mass (CoM) movement in elite standing para table tennis players during a controlled 20-ball displacement speed test, focusing on displacement, velocity, acceleration, and jerk as indicators of movement coordination and control. Twenty-one national-level athletes (classes 6–11) performed alternating forehand and backhand strokes while three-dimensional motion analysis captured CoM trajectories. The primary aim was to characterize directional CoM kinematics, and the secondary aim was to examine associations with functional ability, stroke accuracy, and expert-rated technical performance. Results indicated that the range of CoM displacement was largest in the medio-lateral direction, reflecting the sport-specific demands of side-to-side repositioning, while mean displacement did not differ significantly between the medio-lateral and antero-posterior axes. Similarly, velocity, acceleration, and jerk ranges were greatest laterally, highlighting the dynamic requirements of lateral movement. Correlation analyses revealed no statistically significant associations between CoM metrics and functional ability, stroke accuracy, or expert-rated performance after Bonferroni correction, though exploratory trends suggested that higher-functioning athletes may exhibit greater lateral displacement. Jerk, as a measure of movement smoothness, did not systematically differentiate performance or functional class. These findings underscore the predominance of lateral CoM control in para table tennis and provide a biomechanical basis for training interventions aimed at improving lateral stability, coordination, and functional efficiency. Full article

Background: The back kick is a key scoring technique in taekwondo, often exhibiting bilateral asymmetry in lower limb function. Understanding these differences is crucial for optimizing training and minimizing injury risk. Methods: This study recruited twelve elite taekwondo athletes to perform back kicks using both their dominant and non-dominant legs under standardized conditions. Kinematic, kinetic, and surface electromyographic data were synchronously collected using a 3D motion capture system, force plate, and sEMG sensors. Paired t-tests and effect sizes assessed bilateral differences. Results: During the leg-lifting phase (P1), attacking leg peak hip power was significantly greater on the non-dominant side (p < 0.01); knee flexion angle was greater on the dominant side (p < 0.01), yet peak knee power was higher on the non-dominant side (p < 0.01). Support leg knee flexion angle was greater on the dominant side (p < 0.01), while knee flexion torque was higher on the non-dominant side (p < 0.05); ankle extension moment (p < 0.05) and plantar flexion power (p < 0.01) favored the dominant side. In the kicking phase (P2), dominant knee power was significantly higher (p < 0.01). The biceps femoris on the non-dominant side showed significantly higher iEMG and RMS values (p < 0.05), and dominant striking speed was faster (p < 0.05). Conclusions: These findings confirm marked functional asymmetry, suggesting training should emphasize non-dominant leg development to improve performance and reduce injury risk. Full article

This study explores, from decolonial economics perspective, how nineteen Zimbabwean banks engage with both Euro-American and indigenous knowledge systems in their sustainable finance practices. Despite growing global interest in sustainability, limited research has examined the relevance of these models within Zimbabwe’s socio-economic context. Addressing this gap, the study employs transformative sequential mixed methods, incorporating 289 structured questionnaires, 30 focus group discussions, and 45 archival documents. Data were subjected to descriptive statistics, narrative analysis, Marxist immanent critique, and decolonial theory. Findings reveal that Zimbabwean banks predominantly adopt Euro-American sustainability frameworks such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals, Paris Accords and accounting standards. However, these frameworks often misalign with local realities, obscuring sustainability colonialism, promoting exclusion of indigenous knowledge, reinforcing Global North dominance, and perpetuating weak sustainability theory. This results in superficial compliance that conceals extractive investments and carbon-intensive practices. Moreover, these models deepen subordinated financialization, commodification, elite capture, resource expropriation, and socio-environmental inequalities. The study calls for a paradigm shift, either rejecting Euro-American models in favor of indigenous approaches or adopting a hybrid model that integrates indigenous knowledge. Such a shift would promote strong sustainability, pluralism, and decolonized institutional frameworks to foster financial inclusion, community resilience, and ecological regeneration in Zimbabwe. Full article

Drought stress is a major constraint on watermelon production worldwide. Conventional phenotyping methods for drought tolerance are often low-throughput and fail to capture dynamic physiological responses. This study validated the high-throughput phenotyping platform (Plantarray 3.0) against conventional methods by dynamically evaluating drought tolerance across 30 genetically diverse watermelon accessions. The Plantarray system quantified key dynamic traits, including transpiration rate (TR), transpiration maintenance ratio (TMR), and transpiration recovery ratios (TRRs), revealing distinct drought-response strategies. Principal component analysis (PCA) of these dynamic traits explained 96.4% of the total variance (PC1: 75.5%, PC2: 20.9%), clearly differentiating genotypes. A highly significant correlation (R = 0.941, p < 0.001) was found between the comprehensive drought tolerance rankings derived from Plantarray and conventional phenotyping. We identified five genotypes as highly tolerant and four as highly sensitive. The elite drought-tolerant germplasm, notably the wild species PI 537300 (Citrullus colocynthis) and the cultivated variety G42 (Citrullus lanatus), exhibited superior physiological performance and recovery capacity. The results demonstrate that the Plantarray system not only efficiently screens for drought tolerance but also provides deep insights into dynamic resistance mechanisms, offering a powerful tool and valuable genetic resources for breeding climate-resilient watermelon cultivars. Full article

Planned capitals across the Global South frequently experience unplanned land use transitions that contradict their founding visions. Despite six decades of planning and academic inquiry, Islamabad’s research remains fragmented. Environmental studies have documented land use and land cover changes through remote sensing, while governance-oriented analyses have highlighted institutional weaknesses and policy failures. However, these domains rarely intersect, and few studies systematically link spatial transformations with the underlying governance structures and political–economic processes that drive them. Consequently, the existing literature provides valuable but partial explanations for why Islamabad’s planned order unraveled. This study examines Islamabad, conceived in 1960 as a model of order and green balance, where the built-up area expanded by 377 km² (from 88 to 465 km²; +426%) and forest cover declined by 83 km² (−40%) between 1979 and 2019. Using a PRISMA-guided systematic review integrating spatial, governance, and policy data, we synthesized 39 peer-reviewed and gray literature sources to explain why Islamabad’s planned order unraveled. The findings reveal that governance fragmentation between the Capital Development Authority (CDA) and Metropolitan Corporation Islamabad (MCI), combined with elite capture and weak enforcement of the 2020–2040 Master Plan, has produced enduring contradictions between policy intent and urban reality. These conditions mirror those of other planned capitals, such as Brasília and Abuja. Grounded in Pakistan’s institutional context, the study proposes four actionable reforms: (1) regularization frameworks for informal settlements, (2) cross-agency spatial and fiscal coordination, (3) ecological thresholds within zoning by-laws, and (4) participatory master-plan reviews. Islamabad’s experience illustrates how planned capitals can evolve toward inclusive and ecologically resilient futures through governance reform and adaptive planning. Full article

Elite capture, a power structure problem involving rent-seeking, hinders sustainable water resources management. Governments play crucial roles in instilling public legitimacy in water governance, a common-pool resource that benefits from cooperative solutions such as pilot competitions, co-monitoring, and inter-agency coordination. A study of South-to-North Water Diversion Projects in China showed how, when governments outsource small projects to local sub-contractors, a method named moderate supervision (ruo jiandu) can enable effective oversight, which is superior to a bidding model with strict supervision (qiang jiandu). The concept of moderate supervision was initiated in 2023, before which most small projects had been left in a risky state with no supervision (ling jiandu). Analysis of a case in Shandong Yellow River Water Diversion Irrigation Area involved semi-structured in-depth interviews. Findings revealed that an elite-government-villagers tripartite spiral was composed of 3 dimensions reshaping a positive elite culture: first, a whitelist of qualified local contractors; second, co-monitoring of multiple stakeholders with influence exerted by a three-tier mobilization system; third, inter-agency coordination innovatively enabling smooth functioning between policy entrepreneurs of formal institutions and local social governance of informal ones. Policy implications to underscore real-world applicability are provided. Full article

Background: Grip control is a critical determinant of fencing performance, requiring both stability and precision. Traditional measures of hand strength, such as dynamometry, provide only a global estimate and cannot capture finger-specific load distribution. Yet, upper-extremity overuse syndromes, tendinopathies of the wrist and digital flexors are common in fencers, underscoring the need for more granular assessments that may inform clinical practice, especially in prehension contexts. Methods: This pilot study included eight elite épée fencers from the Polish National Team (age: 23.9 ± 4.9 years; training experience: >10 years) tested using a novel épée handle instrumented with five force-sensitive resistors (FSRs) embedded beneath each finger. Participants performed two 5-s maximal voluntary contractions (MVCs) for each of the three conditions—Pinch (thumb + index), Trio (middle + ring + small), and Whole (all digits). Standard handheld dynamometry was also performed to provide a global reference measure. Results: Maximal grip strength measured with a dynamometer (65.3 ± 11.7 kgf) was substantially higher than finger-specific forces captured with the FSR handle (14.4 ± 4.4 kgf). Isolated Pinch contractions (83.0 ± 29.2 N) were significantly stronger than their integrated contribution within the Whole-hand condition (54.7 ± 16.3 N; Z = 2.52, p = 0.012), whereas Trio forces did not differ significantly (p = 0.263). On average, radial digits (thumb + index) contributed ~39% and ulnar digits (middle, ring, small) ~61% of Whole output, with the thumb and middle finger producing the largest forces. Conclusions: This pilot study demonstrates the feasibility of using an FSR-instrumented épée handle to capture finger-specific grip contributions in elite fencers. Despite limited statistical power (n = 8), the observed effects provide initial quantitative evidence for sport-specific, digit-level assessment, showing potential clinical utility in detecting maladaptive load-transfer mechanisms and informing rehabilitation and injury-prevention programs. Full article

Background: This study employed a markerless motion capture system to quantify the external game load of elite 3 × 3 basketball players and evaluated its association with game performance. Methods: Twenty-four female 3 × 3 basketball games from the 2024 Paris Olympic Games were analyzed, involving 32 players from eight national teams. A markerless motion capture system was used to collect six categories of external load metrics during games, and 22 types of technical statistics were gathered to determine performance. Collected data were standardized according to live game time (min⁻¹). Repeated-measures correlation analysis was applied to examine the relationships between external load and performance, while mixed-effects models were used to compare external load differences between better- and worse-performing groups (classified by Player Value). Results: The correlations between external load and performance indicators were trivial to small. Accelerations (ACC) were significantly associated with the greatest number of performance indicators (e.g., points, rebounds, 1-point made, key assists), while rebounds were significantly correlated with the largest number of external load metrics (e.g., total distance, low-intensity active distance, high-intensity active distance); however, all correlations remained at the small level (r = 0.16–0.24). No significant differences in external load were observed between players of differing performance groups (p > 0.05). Conclusions: In elite 3 × 3 basketball, external load reflects players’ involvement and effort rather than serving as a primary determinant of game performance. This study provides new empirical evidence on the characteristics of 3 × 3 basketball, suggesting that coaches and strength and conditioning practitioners should adopt a comprehensive perspective when evaluating performance, with external load being more suitable for training regulation and fatigue monitoring. Full article

To capture bus passenger flow fluctuations and address the problems of slow convergence and high error in machine learning parameter optimization, this paper develops an improved Whale Optimization Algorithm (IWOA) integrated with a Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU). First, a Logistic–Tent chaotic mapping is introduced to generate a diverse and high-quality initial population. Second, a hybrid mechanism combining elite opposition-based learning and Cauchy mutation enhances population diversity and reduces premature convergence. Third, a cosine-based adaptive convergence factor and inertia weight strategy improve the balance between global exploration and local exploitation. Based on the correlation analysis between bus passenger flow and weather condition data in Harbin, and combined with the fluctuation characteristics of bus passenger flow, the data were divided into windows with a 7-day weekly cycle and processed by fuzzy information granulation to obtain three groups of fuzzy granulated window data, namely LOW, R, and UP, representing the fluctuation trend and spatial characteristics of bus passenger flow. The IWOA was employed to optimize and solve parameters such as the hidden layer weights and bias vectors of the BiGRU, thereby constructing a bus passenger flow fluctuation trend and spatial prediction model based on FIG-IWOA-BiGRU. Simulation experiments with 21 benchmark functions and real bus data verified its effectiveness. Results show that IWOA significantly improves optimization accuracy and convergence speed. For bus passenger flow forecasting, the average MAE, RMSE, and MAPE of LOW, R, and UP data are 2915, 3075, and 8.1%, representing improvements over existing classical models. The findings provide reliable decision support for bus scheduling and passenger travel planning. Full article

Photogrammetry applied to sports provides precise data on athlete positions and time instants, especially with digital motion capture systems. However, detecting and identifying specific events in athletic movements such as discus throwing can be challenging when using only images. For example, with high-speed video, it is difficult to pinpoint the exact frame when events like foot touchdown or takeoff occur, as contact between shoe and ground may span several frames. Inertial measurement units (IMUs) can detect maxima and minima in linear accelerations and angular velocities, helping to accurately determine these specific events in throwing movements. As a result, comparing photogrammetry data with IMU data becomes challenging because of the differences in the methods used to detect events. Even if comparisons can be made with IMU data from other sports researchers, variations in methodologies can invalidate the comparison. To address this, the paper proposes a simple methodology for detecting the five phases of a discus throw using three IMUs located on the thrower’s wrist and on the instep or ankle of the feet. Experiments with three elite male discus throwers are conducted and the results are compared with existing data in the literature. The findings demonstrate that the proposed methodology is effective (100% of phases detected in the experiments without false positives) and reliable (results validated with professional coaches), offering a practical and time- and cost-effective solution for accurately detecting key moments in athletic movements. Full article