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Search Results (137)

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33 pages, 1804 KB  
Article
Cultural Identity, Prior Experience and Emotional Profile as Predictors of AI Acceptance in Dark Tourism: Evidence for an Interpretive Legitimation Mechanism from Romania
by Ana-Maria Dinu, Ana-Irina Nicolau and Doina Maria Tilea
Tour. Hosp. 2026, 7(7), 200; https://doi.org/10.3390/tourhosp7070200 - 9 Jul 2026
Viewed by 395
Abstract
Dark tourism (travel to sites of death, disaster and collective trauma) is increasingly mediated by AI-driven content systems, but the conditions under which visitors accept AI interpretation tools in emotionally sensitive heritage contexts remain empirically unexplored. Our study examines the cultural, experiential and [...] Read more.
Dark tourism (travel to sites of death, disaster and collective trauma) is increasingly mediated by AI-driven content systems, but the conditions under which visitors accept AI interpretation tools in emotionally sensitive heritage contexts remain empirically unexplored. Our study examines the cultural, experiential and affective predictors of AI/immersive technology acceptance among Romanian dark tourism consumers. A quantitative cross-sectional survey (n = 232, predominantly urban respondents, January–March 2026) measured cultural belonging, prior visit experience, dominant emotional response, perceived educational value and technology acceptance; data were analyzed using non-parametric inference and bootstrapped mediation. The results are organized within a descriptive framework we term the Interpretive Legitimation Mechanism (ILM): perceived educational value fully mediates the effect of prior experience on AI acceptance (95.5% of total effect) and partially mediates the effect of cultural belonging (36.4%), while emotional state and gender conditionally moderate receptivity (fascination-dominant visitors show the highest openness and sadness-dominant visitors the lowest). These findings characterize the conditions of receptivity to AI mediation, a necessary precondition for any subsequent influence, and indicate that acceptance in dark tourism is primarily an interpretive and cultural phenomenon rather than a technological one. Full article
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18 pages, 12605 KB  
Article
Disaster Risk Identification and Prevention Strategies for Cultural Tourism Characteristic Towns: A Case Study of Zhangguying Town, Hunan Province
by Jing Ran, Xin Xu, Jing Tang, Chenxi Deng, Ziyuan Ling and Meiqi Jiang
Sustainability 2026, 18(14), 7013; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18147013 - 9 Jul 2026
Viewed by 215
Abstract
As one of the key vehicles to integrating culture and tourism in urban and rural development, cultural tourism-oriented characteristic towns are increasingly facing natural and social disaster risks caused by global climate variability, large-scale expansion of town areas, and intensified human engineering activities. [...] Read more.
As one of the key vehicles to integrating culture and tourism in urban and rural development, cultural tourism-oriented characteristic towns are increasingly facing natural and social disaster risks caused by global climate variability, large-scale expansion of town areas, and intensified human engineering activities. In particular, characteristic towns that have rapidly developed through tourism based on historical and cultural heritage face challenges such as compact layouts of ancient architectural complexes, extensive outward expansion of newly developed areas, and inadequately planned emergency evacuation systems—making them ill-equipped to cope with increasingly uncertain disaster risks. In response to these issues, this study takes Zhangguying Town in Yueyang County, Hunan Province, as a case study. Through field investigations, interviews, and GIS-based hydrological simulations, the research systematically identifies the characteristics and influencing factors of disaster risks in the town. It also reveals the core dilemmas confronting current disaster prevention planning and proposes strategies such as enhancing chain disaster prevention measures, promoting micro-scale, site-specific disaster prevention retrofitting, and establishing a multi-scale disaster prevention system through “point-line” linkages. By reducing disaster risks, preserving cultural heritage, and optimizing emergency response capacities, this research effectively supports the sustainable development of cultural tourism-oriented characteristic towns from a disaster prevention perspective, enabling these towns to withstand natural hazards while sustaining their historical, cultural, and socio-economic functions. The findings provide a theoretical basis and methodological reference for comprehensive disaster prevention planning in similar cultural tourism-oriented characteristic towns. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Development Goals towards Sustainability)
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17 pages, 1715 KB  
Review
Nature-Based Solutions for Enhancing Ecosystem Services: Mechanisms, Benefits, and Challenges
by Jinyu Gong, Linxuan He, Luyao Cui, Shan Zhou, Xuemei Wang and Jingpin Lei
Forests 2026, 17(7), 804; https://doi.org/10.3390/f17070804 - 9 Jul 2026
Viewed by 366
Abstract
As a key pathway to address climate change and biodiversity loss, and to promote sustainable development, Nature-based Solutions (NbS) have increasingly emerged as a vital theoretical framework and practical tool in global environmental governance. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the primary [...] Read more.
As a key pathway to address climate change and biodiversity loss, and to promote sustainable development, Nature-based Solutions (NbS) have increasingly emerged as a vital theoretical framework and practical tool in global environmental governance. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the primary categories of NbS, including ecological restoration approaches, issue-specific ecosystem-related approaches, infrastructure-related approaches, ecosystem protection approaches, and ecosystem-based management approaches. It also reviews the many ecological, social, and economic benefits generated by NbS practices globally and in China, such as enhanced carbon sequestration, disaster risk reduction, water purification, livelihood improvement, and increased tourism revenue. The findings highlight that the effectiveness of NbS is influenced by a variety of factors, including climatic conditions, spatial patterns, socio-economic contexts, and governance capacity. In addition, the delayed ecological responses and potential trade-offs among ecosystem services present challenges for the long-term implementation and upscaling of NbS. To improve the scientific rigor and applicability of NbS, future efforts should focus on long-term ecological monitoring and dynamic evaluation, developing integrated performance assessment frameworks, and strengthening the integration of local knowledge with supportive policy mechanisms. This review offers theoretical insights and practical guidance for enhancing the implementation of NbS in ecosystem management and policy-making. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrative Forest Governance, Policy, and Economics)
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22 pages, 7029 KB  
Article
A ChiMerge–WOE Ensemble Learning Framework for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment in Jiuzhaigou County, China
by Yujie Liu, Lili Zhang, Yaowen Zhang, Yunsheng Yao and Zhicheng Bao
Sustainability 2026, 18(13), 6488; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18136488 - 25 Jun 2026
Viewed by 244
Abstract
Landslide susceptibility assessment is important for disaster prevention and sustainable land-use planning in mountainous regions. However, conventional discretization methods often overlook threshold effects in conditioning factors, and many machine learning models still have limited interpretability. This study develops an integrated framework that combines [...] Read more.
Landslide susceptibility assessment is important for disaster prevention and sustainable land-use planning in mountainous regions. However, conventional discretization methods often overlook threshold effects in conditioning factors, and many machine learning models still have limited interpretability. This study develops an integrated framework that combines ChiMerge discretization, Weight of Evidence (WOE) transformation, and tree-based ensemble learning to map landslide susceptibility in Jiuzhaigou County, Sichuan Province, China. A landslide inventory of 164 points was compiled from field investigations and hazard records, and fourteen topographic, geological, and environmental conditioning factors were derived from multi-source spatial datasets. Continuous factors were discretized using ChiMerge, a supervised chi-square-based discretization method that identifies statistically meaningful thresholds according to the distributions of landslide and non-landslide samples. WOE values were then calculated to quantify the association between each factor class and landslide occurrence. Three WOE-based ensemble models, WOE-CatBoost, WOE-LightGBM, and WOE-RF, were constructed and compared. All models showed high predictive performance (AUC > 0.90), with WOE-CatBoost performing best (AUC = 0.9432). Its high and very high susceptibility zones covered 28.59% of the study area but contained 85.96% of observed landslides. High-risk areas were mainly concentrated in steep valleys, fractured lithological zones, erosion belts, and areas affected by engineering activities, such as road construction, slope cutting, tourism infrastructure development, and settlement expansion. The proposed framework improves prediction accuracy and interpretability and provides spatial support for landslide prevention and sustainable land-use management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Spatial Analysis and GIS for Sustainable Land Change Management)
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23 pages, 1435 KB  
Article
Tourism System Resilience and Sustainable Development in Ecologically Fragile Areas: Evidence from Tibet-Related Areas of Sichuan, China
by Yuyan Luo, Yong Qin and Xiaojing Yu
Sustainability 2026, 18(13), 6448; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18136448 - 24 Jun 2026
Viewed by 280
Abstract
Tourism plays an increasingly important role in promoting economic growth and rural revitalization in ecologically fragile regions. However, tourism systems in Tibet–related areas of Sichuan, China, are highly vulnerable to natural disasters, ecological degradation, and regional development imbalances, posing challenges to sustainable tourism [...] Read more.
Tourism plays an increasingly important role in promoting economic growth and rural revitalization in ecologically fragile regions. However, tourism systems in Tibet–related areas of Sichuan, China, are highly vulnerable to natural disasters, ecological degradation, and regional development imbalances, posing challenges to sustainable tourism development. This study aims to evaluate tourism system resilience and identify its key influencing factors from a sustainability perspective. Based on the regional characteristics of Tibet-related areas in Sichuan, a comprehensive evaluation framework is constructed covering four subsystems: tourism infrastructure and scale, economy, society, and ecology. An integrated entropy weight–analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model, coupling coordination model, and obstacle degree model are employed to assess tourism system resilience and examine subsystem interactions using panel data from 2011 to 2020. The results indicate that: (1) the resilience levels of tourism subsystems show no clear spatial or temporal regularity across the study areas; (2) ecological resilience remains significantly lower than tourism, economic, and social resilience, representing the weakest component of the tourism system; (3) the coupling coordination among subsystems remains at a low level, suggesting insufficient synergy for sustainable regional development; and (4) ecological constraints are the primary limiting factors affecting overall tourism system resilience. This study contributes to sustainable tourism research by revealing the critical role of ecological governance and subsystem coordination in enhancing tourism resilience in ecologically sensitive regions. Policy implications include strengthening ecological protection, improving tourism infrastructure, promoting digital tourism marketing, and advancing rural revitalization to achieve long-term sustainable development. However, this study is limited by data availability and the spatial scope of the selected case-study areas, which may affect the generalizability of the findings. Full article
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24 pages, 355 KB  
Article
Enhancing Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies for Sustainable Tourism Development in Cape Coast, Ghana
by Richmond Yeboah, Mary Acquaye Moore, Emmanuel Dornyoh, Samuel Otoo and Ophelia Mensah
Tour. Hosp. 2026, 7(7), 184; https://doi.org/10.3390/tourhosp7070184 - 24 Jun 2026
Viewed by 357
Abstract
Cape Coast is a prominent tourism destination in Ghana, distinguished by its historical landmarks, coastal ecosystems, and cultural heritage. Yet the city faces mounting threats from environmental hazards such as coastal erosion, flooding, extreme heat, and lagoon degradation, which directly compromise the sustainability [...] Read more.
Cape Coast is a prominent tourism destination in Ghana, distinguished by its historical landmarks, coastal ecosystems, and cultural heritage. Yet the city faces mounting threats from environmental hazards such as coastal erosion, flooding, extreme heat, and lagoon degradation, which directly compromise the sustainability of its tourism sector. Guided by the Sustainable Tourism Development Theory (STDT) and the Tourism Resilience and Adaptation Theory (TRAT), this study investigates the impacts of these hazards on tourism development, the effectiveness of current disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies, and the roles of key stakeholders in building sectoral resilience. Using a qualitative research design, data were collected through in-depth interviews with eighteen stakeholders comprising four policymakers, six community leaders, five tourism business operators, and three representatives from non-governmental organisations, alongside documentary analysis of four institutional reports. The study contributes to the literature by demonstrating that fragmented, reactive DRR strategies and weak stakeholder coordination undermine Cape Coast’s tourism resilience, and by showing how urban natural assets, a dimension largely neglected in existing tourism–DRR scholarship, are central to both hazard exposure and adaptive capacity. The findings call for integrated, ecosystem-based DRR frameworks that align governance mechanisms with sustainable tourism imperatives. Full article
36 pages, 667 KB  
Article
Scenario-Gated Sustainability Readiness for China’s Low-Altitude Economy and Urban Air Mobility
by Zhengyi Yang, Guoxiu Huang, Li Yu Tan, Chin Hao Chong and Pinglei Xu
Sustainability 2026, 18(11), 5756; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18115756 - 5 Jun 2026
Viewed by 575
Abstract
China’s low-altitude economy (LAE) is moving from policy experimentation to coordinated industrial deployment, yet existing assessments often treat the LAE as a homogeneous sector or equate aircraft capability with deployment readiness. This study develops a scenario-gated sustainability readiness framework for six representative LAE [...] Read more.
China’s low-altitude economy (LAE) is moving from policy experimentation to coordinated industrial deployment, yet existing assessments often treat the LAE as a homogeneous sector or equate aircraft capability with deployment readiness. This study develops a scenario-gated sustainability readiness framework for six representative LAE and urban air mobility (UAM) scenarios in China: emergency medical logistics and disaster response, infrastructure inspection and public-service monitoring, urban instant logistics, airport shuttle and intermodal passenger transfer, urban air taxi, and low-altitude tourism. The proposed framework consists of a scenario layer, an eight-dimensional readiness layer, and a decision layer integrating 0–4 ordinal scoring, evidence-confidence tagging, non-compensatory gate conditions, and readiness classification. The eight dimensions cover mission and demand fit; airspace and traffic controllability; infrastructure and site readiness; digital communication, navigation, surveillance, and data security; vehicle, energy, and environmental performance; weather and route-environment robustness; workforce and organizational readiness; and social acceptance and legal legitimacy. The illustrative application indicates that infrastructure inspection is the only routine scaling candidate; emergency medical logistics and urban instant logistics are suitable for bounded routine operation; airport shuttle and tourism should remain controlled pilot candidates; and open-network urban air taxi is still at the pre-pilot stage. The study contributes a scenario-based deployment logic for sustainable aviation and UAM governance. Full article
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21 pages, 7155 KB  
Article
A Decadal Risk Assessment of Tourism Meteorological Disasters in Major Scenic Areas of Dayi County, Sichuan Province, China
by Sijie Gai, Jie Xu, Qiaoqiao Jing, Ruihang Ouyang and Jinjian Li
Atmosphere 2026, 17(6), 551; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17060551 - 28 May 2026
Viewed by 333
Abstract
With the rapid growth of tourism in Dayi County over the past decade, this study develops a meteorological disaster risk assessment framework for major tourist attractions in this region. Drawing upon daily precipitation and temperature records from 25 meteorological stations (2014–2023) alongside multi-source [...] Read more.
With the rapid growth of tourism in Dayi County over the past decade, this study develops a meteorological disaster risk assessment framework for major tourist attractions in this region. Drawing upon daily precipitation and temperature records from 25 meteorological stations (2014–2023) alongside multi-source geospatial data, we evaluate six primary attractions: Xiling Snow Mountain, Huashuiwan, Anren Ancient Town, Xinchang Ancient Town, Tianfu Huaxigu Valley, and Shujiu Cultural Park. The evaluation model integrates four core dimensions: hazard, environmental sensitivity, asset vulnerability, and disaster mitigation capacity. Indicator weights are determined through the Analytic Hierarchy Process, and GIS-based spatial analysis is employed for risk zonation. Additionally, the 45-year ChinaMet dataset provides independent validation for the long-term stability of the hazard assessment. Results reveal a distinct west-low, east-high composite risk gradient. High-altitude mountainous regions in the west exhibit a lower overall risk. Despite frequent extreme weather events, extensive vegetation coverage and low visitor density effectively buffer the negative impacts of physical hazards. Conversely, tourist attractions on the eastern plains fall within high-risk zones. Concentrated visitor populations, dense built environments, and low-lying terrain collectively amplify exposure to severe rainstorms and extreme heatwaves. These findings demonstrate that meteorological disaster risk in tourism destinations fundamentally arises from the deep coupling of natural and human systems. Thus, this study provides a scientific basis for implementing differentiated disaster prevention, mitigation, and localized emergency management strategies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Holocene Climate and Environmental Change in Arid Central Asia)
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22 pages, 10549 KB  
Article
Walking Routes for Marginal Territories: An Unfulfilled Opportunity? A Study in the Inner Areas of the Forlì-Cesena Apennines
by Gabriele Manella, Ángel Rodríguez-Pallas and Tommaso Rimondi
Land 2026, 15(5), 784; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15050784 - 7 May 2026
Viewed by 394
Abstract
This paper examines several trends in contemporary tourism: the broadening of the very notion of a “tourist destination”, alongside the growing importance of providing a diversified and territorially integrated supply; the opportunities that tourism may offer to some “marginal” areas; and the impact [...] Read more.
This paper examines several trends in contemporary tourism: the broadening of the very notion of a “tourist destination”, alongside the growing importance of providing a diversified and territorially integrated supply; the opportunities that tourism may offer to some “marginal” areas; and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which calls for a rethinking of more sustainable and responsible forms of travel, both for the environment and for the people encountered along the way. Tourism related to walking routes and trails appears to benefit from all of these trends, and indeed, this segment has shown clear growth in Italy. The paper then considers the potential and critical issues of this sector in Forlì-Cesena County, with a focus on the nine Apennine municipalities included in the National Strategy for Inner Areas (SNAI). Through an analysis of local tourism promotion websites, a secondary analysis of statistical data, and 19 questionnaire–interviews with local stakeholders, this study examines an area where tourism is growing but remains largely concentrated on the coast. Although the potential of walking routes is confirmed by the various itineraries crossing this area, their actual use and impact on local development still appear limited. Full article
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12 pages, 399 KB  
Proceeding Paper
AuTour: A Decision-Support Framework for Feature Prioritization in a Mobile Tourism Disaster Resilience Application
by Sherwin B. Glorioso and Thelma D. Palaoag
Eng. Proc. 2026, 136(1), 5; https://doi.org/10.3390/engproc2026136005 - 22 Apr 2026
Viewed by 816
Abstract
Translating diverse stakeholders’ needs for tourism into precise technical requirements for mobile resilience applications is a significant challenge, especially for at-risk coastal communities. Therefore, we developed a structured decision-support framework that uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) combined with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) [...] Read more.
Translating diverse stakeholders’ needs for tourism into precise technical requirements for mobile resilience applications is a significant challenge, especially for at-risk coastal communities. Therefore, we developed a structured decision-support framework that uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) combined with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to systematically identify and prioritize functional features for a disaster-resilient tourism application called AuTour. The framework was validated through a case study in Aurora Province, Philippines, involving 152 diverse stakeholders, including government officials, tourism operators, and technology students. The AHP analysis results revealed that safety infrastructure (a mean weight of 0.5256) was the dominant design criterion, far outweighing environmental sustainability (0.2480) and community preparedness (0.1241). The MCDA ranked key functional modules using these criteria to determine an optimal system architecture. The highest-priority features identified were a real-time Disaster Preparedness Alert module, a geospatial Smart Tourism Guide, and a participatory Health Surveillance module. The analysis results confirmed high utility for features incorporating AI-powered chatbots (a mean score of 4.1921) and multi-dialect communication capabilities (4.1513). The developed scalable, data-driven framework can be used for user-centered design in the critical domain of disaster-resilient technology. By translating stakeholder priorities into a ranked set of technical specifications, the framework contributes to the development of resilient mobile systems, supporting the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals for innovation (SDG 9) and resilient infrastructure (SDG 11). Full article
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17 pages, 3312 KB  
Review
A Structured Review of Agent-Based Modelling Applications in Sustainable Tourism Management: An Agent–Land–Context Perspective
by Aoyun Li and Zhichao Xue
Systems 2026, 14(4), 443; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14040443 - 18 Apr 2026
Viewed by 802
Abstract
Understanding the sustainable management of the complex adaptive tourism systems requires an integrated research approach that combines environmental processes with stakeholder behaviors. Agent-based modelling (ABM) has emerged as a pivotal tool for decoding the resilience, adaptability, and sustainability of tourism systems. However, the [...] Read more.
Understanding the sustainable management of the complex adaptive tourism systems requires an integrated research approach that combines environmental processes with stakeholder behaviors. Agent-based modelling (ABM) has emerged as a pivotal tool for decoding the resilience, adaptability, and sustainability of tourism systems. However, the current application landscape, methodological limitations, and future research directions of ABM remain insufficiently synthesized, thereby constraining its full potential in advancing sustainable tourism management. This study examines 137 publications on the application of ABM in tourism research between 1989 and 2025, aiming to clarify the application characteristics and evolutionary trajectories. The results show the following: (1) ABM applications in tourism have become increasingly comprehensive and refined, evolving from simplistic simulations based on simplex agents and static spatial representations toward integrated models incorporating heterogeneous agents, fine-grained spatial environments, and multiple contextual factors. (2) Behavioral modeling has progressed from basic human–space interactions to complex, co-evolutionary dynamics among human, social, and ecological systems. (3) ABM applications exhibit context specificity: climate-sensitive scenarios emphasize resource dynamics and adaptation strategies; disaster-prone contexts focus on multi-agent responses and emergency management; conservation-oriented systems support sustainable policy development; and management-centric scenarios prioritize technological innovation and macro-level regulation. Future research should prioritize refining agent interactions through dynamic social network integration, incorporating cross-scale and long-distance system linkages, and strengthening the connection between theoretical modeling and real-world applications. This study would provide a comprehensive knowledge base for advancing the innovative application of ABM in sustainable tourism research and contribute to strengthening resilience, adaptive governance, and long-term sustainability within complex tourism systems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Complex Systems and Cybernetics)
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22 pages, 1016 KB  
Article
Critical Resilience Factors for Post-Disaster Tourism Recovery: Evidence from Baños de Agua Santa via Fuzzy Multi Criteria Analysis
by Giovanni Herrera-Enríquez, Eddy Castillo-Montesdeoca, Luis Simbaña-Taipe and Juan Gabriel Martínez-Navalón
Tour. Hosp. 2026, 7(3), 84; https://doi.org/10.3390/tourhosp7030084 - 17 Mar 2026
Viewed by 1002
Abstract
Tourism destinations exposed to chronic natural hazards require robust analytical frameworks to understand and prioritize the factors that sustain post-disaster resilience. This study examines Baños de Agua Santa (Ecuador), a volcano-exposed destination whose long recovery trajectory illustrates the complexity of socio-ecological adaptation. Using [...] Read more.
Tourism destinations exposed to chronic natural hazards require robust analytical frameworks to understand and prioritize the factors that sustain post-disaster resilience. This study examines Baños de Agua Santa (Ecuador), a volcano-exposed destination whose long recovery trajectory illustrates the complexity of socio-ecological adaptation. Using a multidimensional FAHP model grounded in expert judgments, eight dimensions and fifty-six criteria were evaluated through fuzzy triangular numbers and the extended analysis method of Chang to capture uncertainty and ambiguity in decision-making. Results show a consistent and hierarchical structure of resilience, with experiential, economic-entrepreneurial, and socio-community dimensions emerging as the most influential drivers of post-disaster adaptability. Fifteen criteria—primarily perceptual, community-based, and endogenous—achieved “very high impact” status, including risk perception, basic education, individual resilience capacities, institutional coordination, and entrepreneurial environment. Conversely, limited healthcare infrastructure, low economic diversification, and national-level vulnerabilities were identified as critical weaknesses. The study concludes that post-disaster recovery in Baños is shaped by a bottom-up dynamic that emphasizes agency, learning and socio-ecological memory. It also proposes an evidence-based Action Matrix for adaptive governance to guide prioritized, time-phased interventions. The FAHP model proves effective for transparent, context-sensitive prioritization in highly uncertain tourism environments. Full article
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17 pages, 2436 KB  
Article
Living with the Volcano: Perception of Tsunami and Volcanic Risk Among Residents of Stromboli Island, Italy
by Massimo Crescimbene, Lorenzo Cugliari, Federica La Longa and Iacopo Moreschini
Soc. Sci. 2026, 15(3), 157; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci15030157 - 2 Mar 2026
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1024
Abstract
Living in the shadow of ‘Iddu’, the Stromboli volcano, requires a unique cultural adaptation. This study explores the risk perception of the permanent residents of Stromboli Island (Italy), a complex multi-hazard environment where persistent volcanic activity coexists with tsunami threats. Adopting a qualitative [...] Read more.
Living in the shadow of ‘Iddu’, the Stromboli volcano, requires a unique cultural adaptation. This study explores the risk perception of the permanent residents of Stromboli Island (Italy), a complex multi-hazard environment where persistent volcanic activity coexists with tsunami threats. Adopting a qualitative design based on 17 semi-structured interviews and focus groups (May 2024), we analysed residents’ narratives through the Cultural Theory of Risk. The findings reveal a hybrid risk culture: a dominant individualistic orientation (37%), driven by self-reliance, is balanced by a strong egalitarian ethos (33%) rooted in community solidarity. The analysis highlights three critical dynamics: (1) the normalization of volcanic risk versus the fear of rare tsunami events; (2) a ‘Trust Gap’ between the community’s horizontal preparedness strategies and the institutions’ vertical communication protocols; and (3) an ‘Economic Filter’ imposed by tourism, which creates a cognitive dissonance where risk is privately acknowledged but publicly downplayed. The study concludes that effective Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) cannot rely solely on top-down technology but must integrate local knowledge and participatory approaches to bridge the distance between scientific monitoring and community experience. Full article
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21 pages, 3082 KB  
Article
Climate Indices as Potential Predictors in Empirical Long-Range Meteorological Forecasting Models
by Sergei Soldatenko, Genrikh Alekseev, Vladimir Loginov, Yaromir Angudovich and Irina Danilovich
Forecasting 2026, 8(1), 9; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast8010009 - 22 Jan 2026
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 891
Abstract
Improving the accuracy of climate and long-range meteorological forecasts is an important objective for many economic sectors: agriculture, energy and utilities, transportation and logistics, construction, disaster risk management, insurance and finance, retail, tourism and leisure. Traditional physical models face limitations at ultra-long lead [...] Read more.
Improving the accuracy of climate and long-range meteorological forecasts is an important objective for many economic sectors: agriculture, energy and utilities, transportation and logistics, construction, disaster risk management, insurance and finance, retail, tourism and leisure. Traditional physical models face limitations at ultra-long lead times, which motivates the development of empirical–statistical approaches, including those leveraging deep learning techniques. In this study, using ERA5 reanalysis data and archives of major climate indices for the period 1950–2024, we examine statistical relationships between climate indices associated with large-scale atmospheric and oceanic patterns in the Northern Hemisphere and surface air temperature anomalies in selected mid- and high-latitude regions. The aim is to assess the predictive skill of these indices for seasonal temperature anomalies within empirical forecasting frameworks. To this end, we employ cross-correlation and cross-spectral analyses, as well as regression modeling. Our findings indicate that the choice of the most informative predictors strongly depends on the target region and season. Among the major indices, AMO and EA/WR emerge as the most informative for forecasting purposes. The Niño 4 and IOD indices can be considered useful predictors for the Eastern Arctic. Notably, the strongest correlations between the AMO, EA/WR, Niño 4, and IOD indices and surface air temperature occur at one- to two-year lags. To illustrate the predictive potential of the four selected indices, several multiple regression models were developed. The results obtained from these models confirm that the chosen set of indices effectively captures the main sources of variability relevant to seasonal and interannual temperature prediction across the analyzed regions. In particular, approximately 64% of the forecasts have errors less than 0.674 times the standard deviation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Weather and Forecasting)
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17 pages, 6761 KB  
Article
Risk of Hypoxia in Short-Term Residents in Qinghai–Xizang Plateau Based on the Disaster System Theory Model
by Zemin Zhi, Qiang Zhou, Qiong Chen, Fenggui Liu, Yonggui Ma, Ziqian Zhang and Weidong Ma
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2025, 14(12), 489; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi14120489 - 10 Dec 2025
Viewed by 1044
Abstract
Recognized as the world’s “Third Pole”, the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau poses significant challenges to human health due to its harsh environment. With improved transportation and a tourism boom industry bringing over 90 million low-altitude residents to the plateau annually, hypoxia has become a critical [...] Read more.
Recognized as the world’s “Third Pole”, the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau poses significant challenges to human health due to its harsh environment. With improved transportation and a tourism boom industry bringing over 90 million low-altitude residents to the plateau annually, hypoxia has become a critical concern. This study analyzes oxygen content data (2017–2022) together with environmental variables including elevation, temperature, precipitation, and vegetation cover, using the GeoDetector method to identify key drivers of near-surface oxygen distribution. Within the framework of disaster system theory, we evaluated the risk of hypoxia among short-term residents. Results show that the near-surface oxygen distribution across the plateau is primarily regulated by climatic and topographic factors. Interactions among environmental variables markedly enhance the explanatory power for spatial variation in oxygen content, with the coupled effects of humidity, atmospheric pressure, elevation, and temperature being especially pronounced. A high hypoxia hazard prevails across the plateau, particularly in the high-altitude western, northern, and central regions. The spatial distribution of hypoxia risk is strongly shaped by human activities, with high-risk zones clustering in densely populated towns, transportation corridors, and regions of intensive tourism. This results in a distinctive coexistence of “high hazard–low exposure” and “low hazard–high exposure” patterns. These findings provide scientific insights for tourism planning, health protection, and risk management in plateau regions. Full article
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