Search Results (2,977)

Reliable short-term prediction of bus travel time on signalized urban arterials is essential for improving service reliability and may provide a useful forecasting basis for prediction-informed transit signal priority (TSP) and arterial coordination applications. However, bus operations on urban arterials are highly variable due to stop dwell times, signal delays, and interactions with mixed traffic, leading to nonlinear and nonstationary travel time patterns with strong spatiotemporal dependence. This study proposes a hybrid KNN–ConvLSTM framework for short-term arterial bus travel time prediction using real-world field data. A K-nearest neighbors (KNNs) module is first employed to retrieve historical operation sequences that are most similar to the current corridor state, thereby reducing interference from mismatched traffic regimes and improving robustness. Smart-card (IC card) transaction data are incorporated as demand-related features to represent passenger activity and its impact on dwell time and travel time variability. The selected sequences are then organized into a corridor-ordered spatiotemporal representation and further refined by lightweight temporal enhancement operations, including relevance gating, multi-scale aggregation, adaptive feature fusion, and residual enhancement, before being fed into the convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) predictor. The proposed approach is evaluated using weekday service-hour data extracted from 30 days of real-world bus operation records collected from a typical urban arterial corridor in Changchun, China, and is compared with several benchmark models, including ARIMA, KNN, LSTM, CNN, ConvLSTM, Transformer, and DCRNN. The results indicate that the proposed KNN–ConvLSTM framework achieves an MAE of 40.1 s, an RMSE of 55.8 s, a SMAPE of 10.7%, and an R² of 0.878, outperforming all benchmark models. Specifically, compared with the Transformer baseline, the proposed framework reduces MAE by 1.5%, RMSE by 5.1%, and SMAPE by 7.0%, while increasing R² by 0.014. Compared with the DCRNN baseline, it reduces MAE by 10.7%, RMSE by 1.9%, and SMAPE by 2.7%, while increasing R² by 0.008. These findings demonstrate that similarity-aware retrieval combined with spatiotemporal deep learning can substantially enhance short-term bus travel time prediction on signalized urban arterials. More accurate short-term forecasts may support prediction-informed transit signal priority and arterial coordination by providing more reliable downstream arrival-time estimates. However, the generalizability of the reported results is still constrained by the relatively short 30-day observation period and the single-corridor case setting, and the operational and environmental effects of downstream applications remain to be validated through dedicated closed-loop control evaluation in future work. Full article

The increasing emphasis on sustainable and decentralized energy has elevated microgrids as a central element of modern power systems. By integrating renewable energy sources, advanced energy storage technologies, and intelligent control strategies, microgrids enhance efficiency, stability, and flexibility and play a vital role in creating resilient and adaptable energy networks. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of Energy Management Systems (EMSs) in microgrids, distinguishing between planning-oriented tools for techno-economic evaluation and control-oriented platforms for real-time operation and optimization. Hierarchical control architectures spanning primary, secondary, and tertiary levels are examined, highlighting their roles in frequency and voltage regulation, load sharing, and economic dispatch. Optimization techniques for EMSs are analyzed across deterministic, stochastic, metaheuristic, and artificial intelligence/machine learning methods, addressing objectives, constraints, uncertainties, and multi-timeframe decision-making. AI-based methods, including supervised learning, deep learning, and reinforcement learning, are highlighted for their ability to enhance predictive control, system autonomy, and operational efficiency, despite their computational demands. Future trends emphasize AI-based predictive control, deep learning for energy forecasting, multi-microgrid coordination, hybrid energy storage management, and cybersecurity enhancements. Overall, an intelligent EMS, combined with innovative technologies, is critical for developing resilient, scalable, and sustainable microgrid solutions that meet the evolving demands of modern energy systems. Full article

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the food industry by enhancing food safety (contamination detection, traceability), optimizing supply chains (demand forecasting, waste reduction, logistics), personalizing nutrition (customized recommendations), and driving product innovation (new flavor creation, formulation) through data analysis, machine vision, and predictive analytics, leading to greater efficiency, sustainability, and consumer satisfaction from farm to fork [...] Full article

Accurate demand forecasting with uncertainty quantification is critical for materials management in power grid enterprises, yet existing methods struggle to capture multi-scale temporal dynamics across heterogeneous material categories while providing reliable confidence estimates. This paper proposes an Adaptive Decomposition–Ensemble Modeling (ADEM) method that integrates adaptive CEEMDAN (Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise) with category-specific depth selection, a heterogeneous ensemble of a GBM (Gradient Boosting Machine), ELM (Extreme Learning Machine), and SVR (Support Vector Regression) with per-component optimized weights, and Bayesian uncertainty quantification with conformal calibration for distribution-free coverage guarantees. Experiments on real-world data spanning 18 material categories over 60 months demonstrate that ADEM consistently outperforms 14 baselines spanning statistical, machine learning, deep learning, and decomposition-based methods in both point prediction accuracy and prediction interval quality. Rolling-origin evaluation across six temporal windows further exhibits the robustness and statistical significance of these improvements. Full article

Accurate prediction of food consumption is essential for strengthening regional food security planning, particularly in areas experiencing increasing food demand and environmental uncertainty. This study aims to predict food consumption patterns in Sukabumi Regency, West Java, Indonesia, using an integrated artificial intelligence approach. The research combines the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for forecasting food consumption trends with three machine learning classification algorithms—Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Logistic Regression (LR)—to classify food consumption levels. Historical rice consumption data from 2014 to 2024 were used to train the forecasting model and generate projections up to 2030. The ANFIS training process was conducted with 100 epochs and an error tolerance of 0, resulting in a training error value of 0.182, indicating strong model learning capability. The comparison between predicted and actual consumption values showed a prediction accuracy of 95.2%, demonstrating the reliability of the model in capturing consumption patterns. Furthermore, food consumption levels were classified into three categories: low, medium, and high. The classification results revealed that Random Forest achieved the most consistent performance across cross-validation folds, while SVM and Logistic Regression experienced misclassification in the medium consumption category. In several evaluation scenarios, machine learning models achieved accuracy levels up to 99.75%, precision 99.76%, recall 99.75%, and F1-score 99.75%. The integration of ANFIS forecasting and machine learning classification provides a robust analytical framework for understanding food consumption dynamics and supports data-driven policy formulation aimed at strengthening regional food security in Sukabumi Regency. Full article

In ecologically fragile karst regions, surface water leakage and spatial mismatches between supply and demand exacerbate water scarcity and ecosystem degradation. In this context, sustainable water resource allocation is of great significance for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study proposes a Dual-stage Prediction and Optimization Coupled Allocation Model (DPOCAM), which integrates an LSTM–Transformer-based intelligent water demand forecasting model with the NSGA-III multi-objective optimization algorithm. The forecasting model was trained on data from 2001 to 2020 and tested on data from 2021 to 2024, achieving a mean absolute percentage error of 2.89%. The model incorporates ecological water demand as an independent optimization objective, quantified using the Tennant method, aiming to coordinate the relationship between domestic and productive water use with aquatic ecosystem protection. Applied to Sinan County, a typical karst area in Guizhou Province, China, the model projects sectoral water demands for 2035 and conducts water resource allocation based on water network planning. Results show that under the current water network, the comprehensive water shortage rate reaches 17.7%, with ecological deficit accounting for 10.1%, posing dual threats to human water security and ecosystem integrity. Following the planned construction of a water network centered on the Huatanzi Reservoir, the overall shortage rate drops to 0.6%, and the ecological deficit declines to 4.6%, demonstrating significant improvements in both water supply reliability and ecological flow guarantee. The water network construction plays a positive role in reducing water shortage rates and enhancing ecological flow protection, providing a scientific basis and practical reference for sustainable water resource management in karst regions. Full article

Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for the efficient operation of residential energy systems and microgrids, as reliable short-term predictions enable improved energy scheduling, demand management, and operational planning in distributed energy environments. In this study, one-hour-ahead forecasting of residential PV power generation is investigated using real-world data collected from multiple households within an Irish energy community. Several deep-learning architectures, including long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), convolutional neural networks (CNN), CNN–LSTM hybrid networks, and attention-based LSTM models, are evaluated and compared with a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) statistical model. A sliding-window approach is employed to transform the PV time series into a supervised learning problem. To ensure statistical robustness, deep-learning models are evaluated using a multi-run framework, and results are reported as mean ± standard deviation based on MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R² metrics across multiple households. The results indicate that deep-learning models achieve consistently strong forecasting performance, with GRU frequently providing the most reliable predictions across several households. For instance, in House 5, GRU achieved an RMSE of 142.02 ± 1.87 W and an R² of 0.694 ± 0.008, while in Houses 11 and 13 it attained R² values of 0.837 ± 0.002 and 0.835 0.08, respectively. However, performance varied across households, reflecting the influence of data variability and generation patterns on model effectiveness. In comparison, the SARIMA model demonstrated competitive performance and, in certain cases, outperformed deep-learning models. For example, in House 4, it achieved the lowest RMSE of 90.68 W and the highest R² of 0.709. Overall, these findings highlight that while deep-learning models offer greater adaptability and stability, statistical models remain effective for more regular PV generation patterns. Consequently, the study emphasizes the importance of evaluating forecasting models under realistic household-level conditions and demonstrates that both deep-learning and statistical approaches can provide short-term PV forecasting. Full article

Smart power management practices are needed for a sustainable EV charging infrastructure due to the fast use of renewable energy resources. An innovative power management structure for a small grid-connected solar PV system-based AC and DC charging station, combined with a backup purpose battery energy system (BESS), is demonstrated in this paper’s study. The sustainability transition is associated with integrating renewable energy resources with a battery storage system, providing a helpful solution for managing large power-demanding entities (EV, microgrid, etc.). In this study, a solar PV system takes 500 datasets (based on data availability or to prevent overfitting) of PV voltage, solar irradiance, and air temperature, and the performance of controlling for the maximum power point tracker by training these datasets using Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), which was implemented in the ANN toolbox and created this technique in MATLAB 2016 or Simulink. Also, using this technique for the estimation and forecasting of the datasets of solar PV systems and EVs obtains better results for achieving further targets. To enhance decision-making capability through optimized technique, we have to find it before forecasting PV power generation and EV datasets throughout the day (24 h). The optimized power flows among solar PV power generation, EV charging demand (including AC charging and DC fast charging), the BESS, and the utility/small grid under several priority operating scenarios. A famous technique for optimization, mixed-integer linear programming (MILP), is applied. In this technique, the objective function is used for the solution of problem formation and compliance with system constraints such as the power balancing equation, charging/discharging limits, SOC limits, and grid export/import exchange limits: basically, equality, inequality, and bounds limits. Optimized results show that the coordinated power flow operations are consented to by EV users, by prioritizing some key points, such as solar PV use at the maximum, reducing the grid power dependency, and the first power flow towards EV charging demand. The verified MILP-based solutions boost the maximum utilization of renewable energy resources, feasible EV charging demand, and scaling power flow among these entities. The key contribution of this study is suitable for different powered EV charging stations based on both AC and DC, with different ratings of EVs (including fast and slow charging). Most solar PV-based generation supports the EVCS and backup for ranking-wise BESS, and grid support for the EVCS. Also, the key contribution of hybrid techniques in this article is divided into two stages: in the first stage, an artificial neural network (ANN) is utilized for estimating the PV voltage at the maximum point and forecasting, while in the second stage, mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) employs optimal power management. Full article

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is critical for modern power systems, energy management, and grid planning. Yet virtually all existing forecasting models employ stationary activation functions that apply identical nonlinear mappings regardless of temporal context—a fundamental mismatch with real-world load data, which exhibits strongly regime-dependent dynamics such as summer demand peaks, winter heating patterns, and overnight low-load periods. We address this gap by proposing TC-KAN (Time-Conditioned Kolmogorov–Arnold Network), the first forecasting architecture to augment KAN activation functions with position-aware coefficient parameterisation. The core innovation replaces the static polynomial coefficients in standard KAN activations with position-conditioned coefficients produced by a lightweight positional-embedding MLP, providing additional learnable capacity beyond standard KAN while adding negligible parameter overhead. TC-KAN further integrates a dual-pathway processing block—combining depthwise convolution for local temporal pattern extraction with the time-conditioned KAN layer for enhanced nonlinear transformation—within a channel-independent framework with Reversible Instance Normalisation. Experiments were conducted on four standard ETT benchmark datasets and the high-dimensional Weather dataset. TC-KAN achieves superior or competitive accuracy in most configurations while requiring merely 51K parameters—approximately 40% of DLinear and ∼100× fewer than iTransformer. On ETTh2, TC-KAN reduces the mean squared error by up to 61.4% over DLinear, and matches the current state-of-the-art iTransformer on ETTm2 at a fraction of the computational cost. This extreme parameter reduction circumvents the steep memory bottlenecks endemic to massive Transformer models, positioning TC-KAN as a highly practical architecture tailored precisely for resource-constrained edge deployments—such as on-device load forecasting inside smart grid sensors and industrial IoT controllers. Full article

Recurring socio-temporal events, such as Ramadan in Middle Eastern cities, introduce pronounced non-stationarity in urban traffic demand. During these periods, daytime traffic volumes typically decline, while congestion becomes more severe in the evening around the Iftar (fast-breaking) period and persists into late-night hours, making conventional fixed-time signal plans less effective. An additional challenge is that demand is not only time-varying, but also unevenly distributed across competing movements: attempts to prioritize high-volume phases can inadvertently cause excessive delays—or even starvation—on lower-demand approaches. To address these issues, this study presents an adaptive, regime-aware traffic signal control framework that combines predictive modeling with constrained optimization. Short-term phase-level delays are forecast using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, and a Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme then determines the green time allocation at each control cycle through a receding-horizon strategy. The optimization explicitly represents phase interactions by including constraints that prevent excessive delay in competing movements, thereby yielding a balanced and operationally realistic control policy. The approach is validated with one-minute-resolution TomTom delay data from a signalized intersection in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, covering both Normal and Ramadan conditions. The LSTM models show stable predictive performance, achieving root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 19.8 s under Normal conditions and 17.1 s during Ramadan. In general, the results show that the proposed framework cuts total intersection delay by about 0.3% to 2.8% compared to standard control strategies. Even though these total-delay improvements are small, they come with big drops in delay for lower-demand phases (about 12–20%) and keep the delay increases for higher-demand phases under control. This shows that the method makes the whole process more efficient by fairly spreading out the delay instead of just making one phase better on its own. The results show that combining forecasting with constrained optimization is a strong and useful way to handle changing traffic demand. This is especially true during times of high demand when flexibility, stability, and fairness across movements are all important. Full article

The accurate anticipation of passenger demand across specific origin–destination (OD) airport routes is a cornerstone of strategic and operational decision-making within the global aviation sector, including airlines optimizing fleet and route management, airports planning infrastructure development, and regulatory bodies overseeing airspace efficiency. However, conventional forecasting techniques frequently encounter limitations when confronted with the inherent complexities and non-linear interdependencies that characterize air travel demand patterns. These patterns are shaped by an array of dynamic variables, including macroeconomic trends, population dynamics, distinct seasonal variations, and emergent phenomena. This investigation evaluates the utility of Artificial Intelligence (AI) paradigms in constructing predictive models for monthly passenger volumes between international OD airport pairs. This work highlights the ongoing transformative impact of AI methodologies on forecasting tasks within the aviation industry. Full article

Timely monitoring of tourism demand is essential for destination management, yet official monthly arrival statistics are often released with delays and can be difficult to use for near-real-time decision-making, particularly under structural shocks such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study develops a fully reproducible, open-data nowcasting pipeline for Ecuador’s international tourist arrivals using a Python workflow. The framework integrates (i) the official monthly arrivals series published by Ecuador’s Ministry of Tourism (MINTUR), (ii) open online attention proxies from Wikipedia pageviews retrieved via the Wikimedia REST application programming interface (API), and (iii) open climate covariates derived from the ERA5-Land land reanalysis. Multiple forecasting models are evaluated under a rolling-origin, one-step-ahead backtest, with a mandatory seasonal naïve benchmark and a regime-aware assessment that separates a stress-test window (2019–2021) from an operational post-COVID window (2022–2025). Forecast accuracy is summarized using root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), and statistical significance of performance differences is assessed using the Diebold–Mariano (DM) test. Results show that a ridge-regularized autoregressive model (ridge_ar) achieves the best overall accuracy, reducing RMSE by approximately 79% relative to the seasonal naïve baseline over the full evaluation window. Windowed results confirm robust performance during the shock period and sustained improvements in the post-2022 operational regime, while the incremental benefit of broader exogenous signals is heterogeneous across windows, underscoring the importance of regularization and regime-aware reporting. The proposed approach provides a transparent, low-cost blueprint for reproducible tourism monitoring that is transferable to other destinations using open data and standard computational tools. Full article

This study investigates the integration of ABC/XYZ (value-based classification/ demand variability classification) inventory classification with demand forecasting models (ETS - Error, Trend, Seasonality, ARIMA - AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average, Prophet - type of additive model) in a manufacturing enterprise to support sustainable resource management. The research aims to evaluate the inventory structure, demand variability, and forecasting accuracy across different material categories. The results confirm a strong concentration of inventory value in A-class items and significant differences in forecast accuracy across ABC/XYZ segments. While AX items generally exhibit lower forecast errors, notable exceptions highlight the need for additional diagnostic analysis. The findings demonstrate that integrating classification and forecasting improves inventory decision-making, reduces excess stock, and supports sustainable resource utilization. The proposed approach provides practical guidance for optimizing inventory management in industrial environments. Full article

The large-scale integration of wind energy introduces increased uncertainty and variability in modern power systems, with direct implications for both system design and operation. In addressing similar aspects, energy storage plays a pivotal role as a key source of system flexibility. However, the design and sizing of storage systems remain challenging, especially under conditions of increased uncertainty. In this context, the present study proposes an alternative methodological framework, based on an inverse sizing pathway, i.e., from operations to design. More specifically, the uncertainty embedded in day-ahead forecasting of residual errors, associated with wind power generation and load demand, is currently exploited as a design-relevant signal, while energy storage is treated explicitly as a risk-hedging mechanism. Forecasting residuals spanning a year of operation are incorporated in the problem through probabilistic modeling, leading to the generation of trajectories that correspond to different risk levels and are managed as design scenarios. Regarding the modeling of uncertainties, the study examines two different strategies, namely a global modeling approach and a k-means clustering strategy. Accordingly, by mapping the interplay between storage capacity, uncertainty levels (or risk tolerance), achieved RES shares and system-level costs, we highlight the role of energy storage as a risk-hedging entity rather than merely a means of energy balancing. Our results to that end demonstrate that the achieved shares of RES exhibit increased sensitivity, even within constrained regions of wind power variation, while storage capacity features distinct zones of hedging value and hedging saturation effects emerging beyond certain storage levels. Moreover, evaluation of the two modeling strategies reflects on their complementary character, with the global modeling approach ensuring continuity and the clustering strategy capturing local asymmetries within different operational regimes. In conclusion, the methodology presented in this study bridges the gap between operational forecasting and long-term system design, offering a risk-aware framework for storage sizing, grounded in actual operational signals rather than relying on stationary historical data and relevant scenarios. Full article

High renewable penetration reduces effective inertia and increases frequency variability in microgrids, thereby limiting the performance of purely reactive frequency regulation. This paper presents a two-timescale frequency-support strategy based on bidirectional electric vehicles. The main novelty lies in introducing a learning-assisted correction layer between forecast-based aggregate regulation and final EV-level dispatch. Rather than replacing the predictive controller with an end-to-end data-driven policy, this layer uses measured fleet-state information to correct the supervisory aggregate request online before a final feasibility-preserving dispatch stage converts it into executable vehicle-level commands under concurrent power, energy, plug-in, and departure constraints. A supervisory predictive layer determines the aggregate support action from forecasted photovoltaic and load disturbances, whereas a lower real-time dispatch layer redistributes that action across the available fleet. Feasibility is enforced through an explicit projection stage prior to actuation. The method is assessed in simulation using measured campus operating profiles of irradiance, temperature, demand, frequency, and electric-vehicle availability. Across four representative operating days, the proposed strategy reduced the mean cumulative frequency deviation by 30.3% relative to droop control and by 24.7% relative to predictive-only operation, while reducing the mean time outside the admissible frequency band by 22.2% and 20.0%, respectively. Zero post-projection constraint violations were observed in all evaluated cases. These gains were obtained at the expense of higher actuation usage, thereby making the regulation–usage trade-off explicit. Full article