Search Results (524)

To investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and primary driving factors of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, we employed an enhanced MODIS-PSN model. Utilizing the fifth-generation global climate reanalysis dataset (ECMWF ERA5), we generated GPP remote sensing products by integrating six natural factors. Through correlation analysis and geographical detector modeling, we quantitatively analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics and key drivers of vegetation GPP across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2001 to 2022. The results demonstrate that GPP changes across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau display pronounced spatial heterogeneity. The humid northeastern and southeastern regions exhibit significantly positive change rates, primarily distributed across wetland and forest ecosystems, with a maximum mean annual change rate of 12.40 gC/m²/year. In contrast, the central and southern regions display a decreasing trend, with the minimum change rate reaching −1.61 gC/m²/year, predominantly concentrated in alpine grasslands and desert areas. Vegetation GPP on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau shows significant correlations with temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), evapotranspiration (ET), leaf area index (LAI), precipitation, and radiation. Among the factors analyzed, LAI demonstrates the strongest explanatory power for spatial variations in vegetation GPP across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The dominant factors influencing vegetation GPP on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are LAI, ET, and precipitation. The pairwise interactions between these factors exhibit linear enhancement effects, demonstrating synergistic multifactor interactions. This study systematically analyzed the response mechanisms and variations of vegetation GPP to multiple driving factors across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from a spatial heterogeneity perspective. The findings provide both a critical theoretical framework and practical insights for better understanding ecosystem response dynamics and drought conditions on the plateau. Full article

In early May 2025, extreme wildfires swept across Manitoba, Canada, fueled by unseasonably warm temperatures, prolonged drought, and stressed vegetation. We explore how multi-source satellite indicators—such as anomalies in snow cover, precipitation, temperature, vegetation indices, and soil moisture in April–May—jointly signal landscape preconditioning for fire, highlighting the potential of these compound anomalies to inform fire risk awareness in boreal regions. Results indicate that rainfall deficits and diminished snowpack significantly reduced soil moisture, which subsequently decreased vegetative greenness and created a flammable environment prior to ignition. This concept captures how multiple moderate anomalies, when occurring simultaneously, can converge to create high-impact fire conditions that would not be flagged by individual thresholds alone. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate and biosphere anomalies into wildfire risk monitoring to enhance preparedness in boreal regions under accelerating climate change. Full article

Climate warming poses significant challenges for the sustainable management of natural water resources, making efficient planning and usage essential. This study evaluates the water requirements, irrigation demand, and rainfall deficits for two key vegetable crops, carrot and white cabbage, under projected climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the period 2031–2100. The analysis was conducted for Kraków and Rzeszów Counties in southern Poland using projected monthly temperature and precipitation data from the Klimada 2.0 portal. Potential evapotranspiration (ETp) during the growing season (May–October) was estimated using Treder’s empirical model and the crop coefficient method adapted for Polish conditions. The reference period for comparison was 1951–2020. The results reveal a significant upward trend in water demand for both crops, with the highest increases under the RCP 8.5 scenario–seasonal ETp values reaching up to 517 mm for cabbage and 497 mm for carrot. Rainfall deficits are projected to intensify, especially during July and August, with greater shortages in Rzeszów County compared to Kraków County. Irrigation demand varies depending on soil type and drought severity, becoming critical in medium and very dry years. These findings underscore the necessity of adapting irrigation strategies and water resource management to ensure sustainable vegetable production under changing climate conditions. The data provide valuable guidance for farmers, advisors, and policymakers in planning effective irrigation infrastructure and optimizing water-use efficiency in southern Poland. Full article

This study investigates the long-term variability and extremes of monthly precipitation during 150 years or more at 4 locations in Argentina: Corrientes, Córdoba, Buenos Aires, and Bahía Blanca. Annual and seasonal trends, extreme dry and wet months over the whole period, and the relationships between large-scale climate drivers and monthly rainfall are considered. Results show that, except for Córdoba, the complete anomaly timeseries trend analysis for all other stations yielded null trends over the centennial study period. Considerable month-to-month variability is observed for all locations together with the existence of low-frequency decadal to interdecadal variability, both for monthly precipitation anomalies and for statistically significant excess and deficit months. Linear fits considering oceanic climate indicators as drivers of variability yield significant differences between locations, while not between full records and seasonally sampled. Issues regarding the use of linear analysis to quantify variability, the dispersion along the timeline of record extreme rainy months at each location, together with the evidence of severe daily precipitation events not necessarily coinciding with the ranking of the rainiest months at each location, highlights the challenges of understanding the drivers of variability of both monthly and severe daily precipitation and the need of using extended centennial timeseries whenever possible. Full article

In recent years, under the influence of climate change and human activities, droughts and floods have occurred frequently in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), seriously threatening socioeconomic development and ecological security. The topography and climate of the YRB are complex, so it is crucial to develop appropriate drought and flood policies based on the drought and flood characteristics of different sub-basins. This study calculated the water storage deficit index (WSDI) based on the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE-Follow On (GFO) mascon model, extended WSDI to the bidirectional monitoring of droughts and floods in the YRB, and verified the reliability of WSDI in monitoring hydrological events through historical documented events. Combined with the wavelet method, it revealed the heterogeneity of climate responses in the three sub-basins of the upper, middle, and lower reaches. The results showed the following. (1) Compared and verified with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), and documented events, WSDI overcame the limitations of traditional indices and had higher reliability. A total of 21 drought events and 18 flood events were identified in the three sub-basins, with the lowest frequency of drought and flood events in the upper reaches. (2) Most areas of the YRB showed different degrees of wetting on the monthly and seasonal scales, and the slowest trend of wetting was in the lower reaches of the YRB. (3) The degree of influence of teleconnection factors in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the YRB had gradually increased over time, and, in particular, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had a significant impact on the droughts and floods. This study provided a new basis for the early warning of droughts and floods in different sub-basins of the YRB. Full article

Severe drought events have raised concerns regarding their effects on the phenological cycles of forest species. This study evaluates the correspondence between in situ phenophases and those detected by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in tree species coexisting within a mixed forest, with particular attention to their relationship with climatic variables. Based on 12 consecutive monthly field observations, we compared phenological developments with UAV-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values, which were then correlated with environmental variables. The analysis revealed a convergence of inflection points and seasonal phenological shifts, likely driven by climatic factors, although distinct patterns emerged between coniferous and broadleaf species. Photoperiod (PP), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), maximum temperature (TMAX), and, to a lesser extent, precipitation (P) were the primary environmental variables influencing NDVI results, used here as a proxy for phenology. Photothermal conditions revealed seasonal asynchrony in NDVI responses between coniferous and broadleaf species, exerting a positive influence on conifers during summer, while having a negative impact on broadleaf species in spring. Validation of in situ observations with UAV-derived data demonstrated a biological correlation between canopy dynamics and NDVI values, supporting its use as a proxy for detecting phenophases at the level of individual trees. Full article

Efficient water management is critical for sustainable dryland agriculture, especially under increasing water scarcity and climate variability. Shanxi Province, a typical dryland region in northern China characterized by pronounced climatic variability and limited soil water availability, faces severe challenges due to uneven precipitation and restricted water resources. This study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil water resources and their coupling with crop water demand under different hydrological year types. Using daily meteorological data from 27 stations (1963–2023), we identified dry, normal, and wet years through frequency analysis. Soil water resources were assessed under rainfed conditions, and water deficits of major crops—including millet, soybean, sorghum, winter wheat, maize, and potato—were quantified during key reproductive stages. Results showed a statistically significant declining trend in seasonal precipitation during both summer and winter cropping periods (p < 0.05), which corresponds with the observed intensification of crop water stress over recent decades. Notably, more than 86% of daily rainfall events were less than 5 mm, indicating low effective rainfall. Soil water availability closely followed precipitation distribution, with higher values in the south and west. Crop-specific analysis revealed that winter wheat and sorghum had the largest water deficits in dry years, necessitating timely supplemental irrigation. Even in wet years, water regulation strategies were required to improve water use efficiency and mitigate future drought risks. This study provides a practical framework for soil water–crop demand assessment and supports precision irrigation planning in dryland farming. The findings contribute to improving agricultural water use efficiency in semi-arid regions and offer valuable insights for adapting to climate-induced water challenges. Full article

The mean annual water balance is essential for evaluating water availability in a catchment and planning water resources. Climate change alters this balance by affecting precipitation, evapotranspiration, and overall water availability. This study analyses the impact of climate change on the mean annual water balance in the Catamayo catchment, a key water source for irrigation and hydropower in southern Ecuador and northern Peru. A Budyko-based approach was employed due to its conceptual simplicity and proven robustness for estimating long-term water balances under changing climatic conditions. Using outputs from 23 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under CMIP6’s SSP2-4.5 and SSP8.5 scenarios, the results indicate increasing aridity, particularly in the lower and middle parts of the catchment, which correspond to arid and semi-arid zones. Water availability may decrease by 26.3 ± 12.3% to 33.3 ± 17% until 2080 due to negligible changes (statistically speaking) in average precipitation but rising evapotranspiration. However, historical precipitation analysis (1961–2020) reveals an increasing trend over this historical period which can be attributed to natural climatic variability associated to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), possibly enhanced by anthropogenic climate change. A novel hybrid method combining the statistics of historical precipitation deficits with GCM mean projections provides estimates of future precipitation deficits. These findings suggest potential reductions in crop yields and hydropower capacity, which (although not quantitatively assessed in this study) are inferred based on the projected decline in water availability. Such impacts could lead to higher energy costs, increased reliance on fossil fuels, and intensified competition for water. Mitigation measures, including water-saving strategies, energy diversification, and integrated water resource management, are recommended to address these challenges. Full article

Desert ecosystems play a critical role in global climate regulation. Current research reveals a relative lack of research regarding desert ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand. Therefore, we selected the Ulanbuh desert, one of the eight major deserts in China, as study area. Using specialized models, we quantify the supply and demand of four ES, including water yield (Wy), soil conservation (Sc), windbreak and sand fixation (Ws), and carbon sequestration (Cs), from 1985 to 2020. Univariate linear regression analysis and panel data analysis (PDA) were used to examine trends in desert ES supply–demand ratio (ESDR) and its determinants. The findings indicated that ES supply presented increases in Sc and Cs, and decline in Ws from 1985 to 2020. Demand patterns showed a growth trend for Wy and Cs. ESDR revealed that Sc, Ws, and Cs show an excess of supply over demand and are in a decreasing trend, while Wy displays a supply deficit relative to demand with no significant change. The comprehensive ESDR decreased over the study period, with a supply-deficit status emerging in the southwestern area. Natural factors (NDVI and precipitation) and socio-economic factors (GDP and population density) served as the main factors affecting the comprehensive ESDR. This research provides a novel perspective for desert ecosystems management and conservation, emphasizing the necessity of incorporating the ES supply and demand balance into regional development policies to achieve sustainable development in arid regions. Full article

Background/Objectives: A critical part of the maize life cycle takes place during the summer, and due to climate change, its growth and development are increasingly exposed to the irregular and unpredictable effects of drought stress. Developing and using new cultivars with increased drought tolerance for farmers is the easiest and cheapest solution. One of the concepts to screen for drought tolerance is to expose germplasm to various growth scenarios (environments), expecting that random drought will occur in some of them. Methods: In the present study, thirty-two maize hybrids belonging to four FAO maturity groups were tested for grain yield at six locations over two consecutive years. In parallel, data of the basic meteorological elements such as air temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were collected and used to compute two indices, scPDSI (Self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index) and VPD (Vapor Pressure Deficit), that were assessed as indicators of drought (water deficit) severity during the vegetation period. Practical implementation of these indices was carried out indirectly by first analyzing yield data using a factor analytic model to detect latent environmental variables affecting yield and then correlating those latent variables with drought indices. Results: The first latent variable, which explained 47.97% of the total variability, was correlated with VPD (r = −0.58); the second latent variable explained 9.57% of the total variability and was correlated with scPDSI (r = −0.74). Furthermore, latent regression coefficients (i.e., genotypic sensitivities to latent environmental variables) were correlated with genotypic drought tolerance. Conclusions: This could be considered an indication that there were two different acting mechanisms in which drought affected yield. Full article

Soil moisture content (SMC) is a critical parameter for agricultural productivity, particularly in semi-arid regions, where irrigation practices are extensively used to offset water deficits and ensure decent yields. Yet, the socio-economic and remote context of these regions prevents sufficiently dense SMC monitoring in space and time to support farmers in their work to avoid unsustainable irrigation practices and preserve water resource availability. In this context, our study addresses the challenge of high spatial resolution (i.e., 20 m) SMC estimation by integrating remote sensing datasets in machine learning models. For this purpose, a dataset made of 166 soil samples’ SMC along with corresponding SMC, precipitation, and radar signal derived from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and Sentinel-1 (S1), respectively, was used to assess four machine learning models’ (Decision Tree—DT, Random Forest—RF, Gradient Boosting—GB, Extreme Gradient Boosting—XGB) reliability for SMC mapping. First, each model was trained/validated using only the coarse spatial resolution (i.e., 10 km) SMAP SMC and IMERG precipitation estimates as independent features, and, second, S1 information (i.e., 20 m) derived from single scenes and/or composite images was added as independent features to highlight the benefit of information (i.e., S1 information) for SMC mapping at high spatial resolution (i.e., 20 m). Results show that integrating S1 information from both single scenes and composite images to SMAP SMC and IMERG precipitation data significantly improves model reliability, as R² increased by 12% to 16%, while RMSE decreased by 10% to 18%, depending on the considered model (i.e., RF, XGB, DT, GB). Overall, all models provided reliable SMC estimates at 20 m spatial resolution, with the GB model performing the best (R² = 0.86, RMSE = 2.55%). Full article

The net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) of spruce forest ecosystems is poorly understood by the lack of measurements of CO₂ in the Qilian Mountain of Western China. Thus, we conducted consecutive measurements of CO₂ fluxes using tower-based the eddy covariance method from 2021 to 2022. These results indicated that daily NEE of spruce forest indicated a robust temporal pattern ranging from −28.43 to 29.62 g C m⁻² from 2021 to 2022. Remarkable carbon sink characteristics were presented from late May to late September. Month accumulative NEE fluxes ranged from −336.57 to 142.22 g C m⁻² in two years. Additionally, average carbon sink was 591.51 ± 37.41 g C m⁻² in Qilian Mountain. NEE was negatively driven by vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and average air temperature (p < 0.05), as determined using the structural equation model. However, the direct effect coefficient of precipitation on NEE was weak. VPD was positively driven by air temperature and negatively determined by precipitation. In conclusion, a future warming scenario would significantly decrease the carbon sink of the spruce forest in Qilian Mountain. Full article

Over the past four decades, Wadi Fatimah in western Saudi Arabia has undergone significant environmental changes that have contributed to desertification. High-resolution spatial and temporal analyses are essential for monitoring the extent of desertification and understanding its driving factors. This study aimed to assess the spatial distribution of desertification in Wadi Fatimah using satellite and climate data. Landsat imagery from 1984 to 2022 was employed to derive land surface temperature (LST) and assess vegetation trends using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Climate variables, including precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET), were sourced from the gridded TerraClimate dataset (1980–2022). LST estimates were validated using MOD11A2 products (2001–2022), while TerraClimate precipitation data were evaluated against observations from four local rain gauge stations: Wadi Muharam, Al-Seal Al-Kabeer, Makkah, and Baharah Al-Jadeedah. A Desertification Index (DI) was developed based on four variables: NDVI, LST, precipitation, and ET. Five regression models—ridge, lasso, elastic net, polynomial regression (degree 2), and random forest regression—were applied to evaluate the predictive capacity of these variables in explaining desertification dynamics. Among these, Random Forest and Polynomial Regression demonstrated superior predictive performance. The classification accuracy of the desertification map showed high overall accuracy and a strong Kappa coefficient. Results revealed extensive land degradation in the central and lower sub-basins of Wadi Fatimah, driven by both climatic stressors and anthropogenic pressures. LST exhibited a clear upward trend between 1984 and 2022, especially in the lower sub-basin. Precipitation and ET analysis confirmed the region’s arid climate, characterized by limited rainfall and high ET, which exacerbate vegetation stress and soil moisture deficits. Validation of LST with MOD11A2 data showed reasonable agreement, with RMSE values ranging from 2 °C to 6 °C and strong correlation coefficients across most years. Precipitation validation revealed low correlation at Al-Seal Al-Kabeer, moderate at Baharah Al-Jadeedah, and high correlations at Wadi Muharam and Makkah stations. These results highlight the importance of developing robust validation methods for gridded climate datasets, especially in data-sparse regions. Promoting sustainable land management and implementing targeted interventions are vital to mitigating desertification and preserving the environmental integrity of Wadi Fatimah. Full article

Forest–atmosphere interactions through mass and energy fluxes significantly influence climate processes. However, due to anthropogenic actions, native Araucaria forests in southern Brazil, part of the Atlantic Forest biome, have been drastically reduced. This study quantifies CO₂ and energy flux contributions from each forest stratum to improve understanding of surface–atmosphere interactions. Eddy covariance data from November 2009 to April 2012 were used to assess fluxes in an Araucaria forest in Paraná, Brazil, across the ecosystem, understory, and overstory strata. On average, the ecosystem acts as a carbon sink of −298.96 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹, with absorption doubling in spring–summer compared to autumn–winter. The understory primarily acts as a source, while the overstory functions as a CO₂ sink, driving carbon absorption. The overstory contributes 63% of the gross primary production (GPP) and 75% of the latent heat flux, while the understory accounts for 94% of the ecosystem respiration (RE). The energy fluxes exhibited marked seasonality, with higher latent and sensible heat fluxes in summer, with sensible heat predominantly originating from the overstory. Annual ecosystem evapotranspiration reaches 1010 mm yr⁻¹: 60% of annual precipitation. Water-use efficiency is 2.85 g C kgH₂O⁻¹, with higher values in autumn–winter and in the understory. The influence of meteorological variables on the fluxes was analyzed across different scales and forest strata, showing that solar radiation is the main driver of daily fluxes, while air temperature and vapor pressure deficit are more relevant at monthly scales. This study highlights the overstory’s dominant role in carbon absorption and energy fluxes, reinforcing the need to preserve these ecosystems for their crucial contributions to climate regulation and water-use efficiency. Full article

Droughts in the Amazon region are expected to increase in frequency and intensity, which would negatively affect the tropical forest, leading to a positive climate–forest feedback loop that could potentially result in the collapse of this ecosystem. In this study, extreme drought conditions were identified in the Peruvian Amazon region for the period 2000–2024 using the maximum cumulative water deficit (MCWD) index, which is related to the tropical forest water stress. The ERA5, CHIRPS, and MSWEP datasets were used to estimate precipitation, while ERA5 data were used for evapotranspiration. This study focuses on the specificities of droughts and the differences across study areas. Six study areas were specified, three of them located in the Loreto department (northern Peruvian Amazon), another centered in Moyobamba city (western Peruvian Amazon), another in Ucayali, in the central Peruvian Amazon, and the other in Madre de Dios (southern Peruvian Amazon). It was found that the drought events are more frequent and intense in the central and southern regions of the basin. Based on the combined effect of the regional severity of the drought and its spatial extent, estimated from averaging across study areas and precipitation datasets, we identified the hydrological years of 2023-24, 2022-23, 2009-10, and 2004-05 as extreme droughts and 2015-16 and 2006-07 as moderate droughts. Full article