Search Results (153)

This study presents a scenario-based, two-dimensional flood modeling approach to assess the potential downstream impacts of a piping-induced dam failure triggered by seismic activity. The case study focuses on the Doğantepe Dam in northwestern Türkiye, located near an active branch of the North Anatolian Fault. Critical deformation zones were previously identified through PLAXIS 2D seismic analyses, which served as the physical basis for a dam break scenario. This scenario was modeled using the HEC-RAS 2D platform, incorporating high-resolution topographic data, reservoir capacity, and spatially varying Manning’s roughness coefficients. The simulation results show that the flood wave reaches downstream settlements within the first 30 min, with water depths exceeding 3.0 m in low-lying areas and flow velocities surpassing 6.0 m/s, reaching up to 7.0 m/s in narrow sections. Inundation extents and hydraulic parameters such as water depth and duration were spatially mapped to assess flood hazards. The study demonstrates that integrating physically based seismic deformation data with hydrodynamic modeling provides a realistic and applicable framework for evaluating flood risks and informing emergency response planning. Full article

The dam break flow problem consists of the phenomena where a fluid is suddenly released and is often used as a test case for multiphase flows numerical models or to analyze the underlying physics of complex free surface flows of both Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids. Dam break flows of viscoplastic fluids (i.e., fluids that present a yield stress) are especially interesting for two reasons: many geological and industrial fluids can be characterized as viscoplastic fluids, and the yield stress represents a difficulty for numerical solutions. The viscoplastic fluids are simulated using the Bingham and Herschel–Bulkley models, and the results are compared with the flow development of power-law and Newtonian fluids (i.e., with no yield stress). This paper focuses on the numerical modeling of viscoplastic two-dimensional dam-break flows on an inclined bed as a means to analyze the shear stress field development over time and the formation of plug and pseudo-plug zones. It is shown that, for the very beginning of flow, the yield stress fluids were characterized by three distinctive shear stress zones, an occurrence that could not be found on the fluid with no yield stress. Full article

Small reservoirs in hilly areas serve as critical water conservancy infrastructure, playing an essential role in flood control, irrigation, and regional water security. However, dam-break events pose significant risks to downstream urban areas, threatening the sustainability and resilience of cities. This study takes Guangyuan City as a case study and employs numerical simulation methods—including dam-break modeling, hydrological modeling, and hydrodynamic modeling—to analyze the impact of dam-break floods on downstream urban regions. The results reveal that dam failure in small reservoirs can cause peak flood velocities exceeding 15 m/s, severely endangering urban infrastructure, ecosystems, and public safety. Additionally, for reservoirs with large catchment areas, dam-break floods combined with rainfall-induced flash floods may create compound disaster effects, intensifying urban flood risks. These findings underscore the importance of sustainable reservoir management and integrated flood risk strategies to enhance urban resilience and reduce disaster vulnerability. This research contributes to sustainable development by providing scientific insights and practical support for flood risk mitigation and resilient infrastructure planning in mountainous regions. Full article

Dam breaks can lead to important economic and human losses. Design floods, which are useful to assess possible dam breaks, are usually estimated through statistical analysis of rainfall and streamflow observed data. However, such available samples are commonly limited and, consequently, high uncertainties are associated with the design flood estimates. In addition, climate change is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall and flood events in the future. Therefore, a methodology based on a stochastic rainfall generator is proposed to assess hydrological dam safety by considering climate change. We selected the Eugui Dam on the Arga river in the north of Spain as a case study that has a spillway operated by gates with a maximum capacity of 270 m³/s. The stochastic rainfall generator STORAGE is used to simulate long time series of 15-min precipitation in both current and future climate conditions. Precipitation projections of 12 climate modeling chains, related to the usual three 30-year periods (2011–2024; 2041–2070 and 2071–2100) and two emission scenarios of AR5 (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), are used to consider climate change in the STORAGE model. The simulated precipitation time series are transformed into runoff time series by using the continuous COSMO4SUB hydrological model, supplying continuous 15-min runoff time series as output. Annual maximum flood hydrographs are selected and considered as inflows to the Eugui Reservoir. The Volume Evaluation Method is applied to simulate the operation of the Eugui Dam spillway gates, obtaining maximum water levels in the reservoir and outflow hydrographs. The results show that the peak outflows at the Eugui Dam will be lower in the future. Therefore, maximum reservoir water levels will not increase in the future. The methodology proposed could allow practitioners and dam managers to check the hydrological dam safety requirements, accounting for climate change. Full article

Existing studies on ontology evolution lack automated mechanisms to balance semantic coherence and adaptability under real-time uncertainties, particularly in resolving spatiotemporal asymmetry and multidimensional coupling imbalances in dam-break scenarios. Traditional methods such as WordNet’s tree symmetry and FrameNet’s frame symmetry fail to formalize dynamic adjustments through quantitative metrics, leading to path dependency and delayed responses. This study addresses this gap by introducing a novel symmetry-entropy-constrained matrix fusion algorithm, which integrates algebraic direct sum operations and Hadamard product with entropy-driven adaptive weighting. The original contribution lies in the symmetry entropy metric, which quantifies structural deviations during fusion to systematically balance semantic stability and adaptability. This work formalizes ontology evolution as a symmetry-driven optimization process. Experimental results demonstrate that shared concepts between ontologies (s = 3) reduce structural asymmetry by 25% compared to ontologies (s = 1), while case studies validate the algorithm’s ability to reconcile discrepancies between theoretical models and practical challenges in evacuation efficiency and crowd dynamics. This advancement promotes the evolution of traditional emergency management systems towards an adaptive intelligent form. Full article

Mathematical models and methods serve as fundamental tools for studying ice-related phenomena in the Yellow River. River ice is driven and constrained by hydrometeorological and geographical conditions, creating a complex system. Regarding the Yellow River, there are some uncertainties that manifest in unique features in this context, including ice–water–sediment mixed transport processes and the distribution of sediment both within the ice and on its surface. These distinctive characteristics are considered to different degrees across different scales. Mathematical models for Yellow River ice developed over the past few decades not only encompass models for the large-scale deterministic evolution of river ice formation and melting, but also uncertainty parameter schemes for deterministic mathematical models reflecting the Yellow River’s particular ice-related characteristics. Moreover, there are modern mathematical results quantitatively describing these characteristics with uncertainty, allowing for a better understanding of the unique ice phenomena in the Yellow River. This review summarizes (a) universal equations established according to thermodynamic and hydrodynamic principles in river ice mathematical models, as well as (b) uncertainty sources caused by the river’s characteristics, ice properties, and hydrometeorological conditions, embedded in parametric schemes reflecting the Yellow River’s ice. The intractable uncertainty-related problems in space–sky–ground telemetric image segmentation and the current status of mathematical processing methods are reviewed. In particular, the current status and difficulties faced by various mathematical models in terms of predicting the freeze-up and break-up times, the formation of ice jams and dams, and the early warning of ice disasters are presented. This review discusses the prospects related to the uncertainties in research results regarding the simulation and prediction of Yellow River ice while also exploring potential future trends in research related to mathematical methods for uncertain problems. Full article

Floods resulting from dam failures are highly destructive, characterized by intense impact forces, widespread inundation, and rapid flow velocities, all of which pose significant threats to public safety and social stability in downstream regions. To improve evacuation efficiency during such emergencies, it is essential to study flood evacuation route planning. This study aimed to minimize evacuation time and reduce risks to personnel by considering the dynamic evolution of dam-break floods. Using aerial photography from an unmanned aerial vehicle, the downstream road network of a reservoir was mapped. A coupled flood–road network coupling model was then developed by integrating flood propagation data with road network information. This model optimized evacuation route planning by combining the dynamic evolution of flood hazards with real-time road network data. Based on this model, a flood evacuation route planning method was proposed using Dijkstra’s algorithm. This methodology was validated through a case study of the Shanmei Reservoir in Fujian, China. The results demonstrated that the maximum flood level reached 18.65 m near Xiatou Village, and the highest flow velocity was 22.18 m/s near the Shanmei Reservoir. Furthermore, evacuation plans were developed for eight affected locations downstream of the Shanmei Reservoir, with a total of 13 evacuation routes. These strategies and routes resulted in a significant reduction in evacuation time and minimized the risks to evacuees. The life-loss risk was minimized in the evacuation process, and all evacuees were able to reach safe locations. These findings confirmed that the proposed method, which integrated flood dynamics with road network information, ensured the safety and effectiveness of evacuation routes. This approach met the critical needs of emergency management by providing timely and secure evacuation paths in the event of dam failure. Full article

Flood hazard studies for dam break cases are of utmost importance for understanding potential risks and minimizing the impact of such accidents. Siriu Dam, which has a clay core, is ranked as the third highest embankment dam in Romania. A fully dynamic 2D hydraulic numerical model was developed using HEC-RAS software to simulate the routing of the flood waves formed by breaching this dam. Four different failure scenarios were considered: two for overtopping and two for piping. The breach parameters were chosen based on the dam characteristics in accordance with appropriate empirical relationships. The flood hazard was quantified and analyzed in terms of depths, velocities, depth x velocity values, and flooded areas. The results provide useful information concerning flood risk mitigation, such as the dam break wave routing, peak discharges, arrival time, travel velocity, and inundation boundary. The influence of the scenario and site characteristics (topography, river morphology, and constructions) on the results was analyzed. Depths and velocities over 10 m and 15 m/s, respectively, were obtained close to the dam, while those in Buzău City (90 km away) were under 1 m and 2 m/s, respectively. The city was flooded 7–8.5 h after the breach (depending on the scenario), and over 15 to 50% of its total area was affected. Moreover, the flood hazard parameters were compared for the different scenarios, providing the practical details necessary to develop flood risk management plans and the associated response measures for the inhabited areas. This is the first numerical study to simulate the impact of a potential break accident that can occur for this dam. Full article

Adopting an appropriate method to analyze the spatial evolution process of tailings flow after tailings dam failure can provide a rational assessment of the inundation range and evaluate the subsequent disaster. Simultaneously, it can offer a foundation for tailings pond construction and safety management. This paper, focusing on a specific iron mine in Xiagao, Guangdong, establishes a three-dimensional simulation of the tailings pond based on the design drawings of the raised tailings pond. Utilizing the depth integral method as the theoretical basis, this research references parameter values obtained through model experiments for numerical simulation. Through the numerical simulation method, the study simulates the disaster range, flow, and spatial state of the tailings flow after a dam break. The tailings flow velocity and the depth of the flow in the affected areas are derived, demonstrating the disasters resulting from dam failure. Moreover, the feasibility of raising the tailings dam is evaluated. The assessment extends to the damage risk of tailings dam failure to critical downstream facilities and provides disaster prevention and control suggestions for high-risk situations. This study ultimately offers technical support for the prevention and control of tailings dam failure accidents and the advancement of mine safety production. Full article

This study investigated the effects of downstream channel obstacles and the lateral transition distance to the dam on dam-break wave evolution as a wave–structure interaction problem. Numerical simulations were conducted using three-dimensional Navier–Stokes equations and solved using the finite volume method. The model accurately predicted interactions between dam-break waves and downstream structures. The numerical results showed that turbulence intensity increased where the cross-section significantly changed in the downstream channel. Accordingly, transcritical flow and lateral transitions were developed around the dam site. Additionally, reducing the distance of the obstacle to the dam resulted in a significant decrease in wave height and kinetic energy. The transient flow velocity direction changed around the structures, and pressure fluctuations were pronounced. Moreover, the entrainment of air bubbles and the vortex shedding were observed due to the interaction of the wave and downstream structures. The peak discharge in the downstream channel was reduced by increasing the distance of obstacles to the dam. The model successfully captured the flow disturbance, wave reflectance from the sidewalls, and formation of hydraulic jumps. The validation of the model with experimental data in the literature showed that the model performed well in predicting the wave dynamic characteristics around the downstream structures. Full article

In this research, a numerical model for simulating dam break floods was developed utilizing ArcGIS 10.8, 3ds Max 2021, and Flow-3D v11.2 software, with the aim of accurately representing the dam break disaster at Tianchi Lake in Changbai Mountain. The study involved the construction of a Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN) terrain surface and the application of 3ds Max 2021 to enhance the precision of the three-dimensional terrain data, thereby optimizing the depiction of the region’s topography. The finite volume method, along with multi-block grid technology, was employed to model the dam break scenario at Tianchi Lake. To evaluate the severity of the dam break disaster, the research integrated land use classifications within the study area with the simulated flood depths resulting from the dam break, applying the natural breaks method for hazard level classification. The findings indicated that the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) numerical model developed in this study significantly enhanced both the efficiency and accuracy of the simulations. Furthermore, the disaster assessment methodology that incorporated land use types facilitated the generation of inundation maps and disaster zoning maps across two scenarios, thereby effectively assessing the impacts of the disaster under varying conditions. Full article

The reasonable and efficient prediction of dam failure events is of great significance to the emergency rescue operations and the reduction in dam failure losses. This work presents a model that is based on the physical mechanism. It is coupled with a multi-architecture (multi-CPU and GPU) open-source two-dimensional flood model, which is based on high-precision terrain and land use data. The aim is to enhance the accuracy of dam break flood process simulations. The model uses DEM data as a computational grid and updates it at each time step to reflect breach evolution. Simultaneously, the breach evolution model incorporates an analysis of stress on sediment particles, establishing the initial erosion state and lateral expansion model while accounting for seepage. The determination of the overflow of the breach is resolved through the application of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. This approach achieves a robust connection between the upstream reservoir, the dam structure, and the downstream inundation area. The coupled model is utilized to calculate the failure of earth-rock dams and landslide dams, and a sensitivity analysis is conducted. Taum Sauk Dam and Tangjiashan landslide dam were selected to represent earth dam break and barrier lake break, respectively, which are the main types of dam breaks. The obtained results demonstrate strong concurrence with the measured data, the relative errors of the four important parameters of the application case, the peak discharge of the breach, the top width of the final breach, the depth of the breach and the arrival time of the maximum peak discharge are all within ±10%. Although the relative error of the completion time of the final breach is greater than 10%, it is about 30% less than the relative error of the physical model. Full article

Ice–water interaction is a critical issue of engineering studies in polar regions. This paper proposes a methodology to simulate fluid–ice interactions by employing a structure modeled using ordinary state-based peridynamics (OSB-PD) within a smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) framework, effectively representing a deformable moving boundary. The forces at the fluid–structure interface are delineated by solving the fluid motion equations for normal forces exerted by the fluid on the structure, grounded in the momentum conservation law. Upon validating the PD and SPH methods, a dam break flowing through an elastic gate was simulated. When compared with experimental results, the model exhibited discrepancies of 3.8%, 0.5%, and 4.6% in the maximum horizontal displacement, maximum vertical displacement, and the waterline deviation (W = 0.05 m), respectively. Moreover, the method demonstrated a high degree of accuracy in simulating the fracture of in-situ cantilever ice beams, with deflection closely matching experimental data and a 7.4% error in maximum loading force. The proposed PD-SPH coupling approach demonstrates its effectiveness in capturing the complex fluid–structure interactions and provides a valuable tool for studying the deformation and fracture of structures under the influence of fluid forces. Full article

The forecasting of evapotranspiration (ET) in some water-stressed regions remains a major challenge due to the lack of reliable and sufficient historical datasets. For efficient water balance, ET remains the major component and its proper forecasting and quantifying is of the utmost importance. This study utilises the 18-year (2001 to 2018) MODIS ET obtained from a drought-affected irrigation scheme in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. This study conducts a teleconnection evaluation between the satellite-derived evapotranspiration (ET) time series and other related remotely sensed parameters such as the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI), Normalised Difference Drought Index (NDDI), and precipitation (P). This comparative analysis was performed by adopting the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Sequential Mann–Kendall (SQ-MK) test, and Multiple Linear Regression methods. Additionally, the ET detailed time-series analysis with the Keiskamma River streamflow (SF) and monthly volumes of the Sandile Dam, which are water supply sources close to the study area, was performed using the Wavelet Analysis, Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST), Theil–Sen statistic, and Correlation statistics. The MODIS-obtained ET was then forecasted using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for a period of 5 years and four modelling performance evaluations such as the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the Pearson Correlation Coefficient (R) were used to evaluate the model performances. The results of this study proved that ET could be forecasted using these two time-series modeling tools; however, the ARIMA modelling technique achieved lesser values according to the four statistical modelling techniques employed with the RMSE for the ARIMA = 37.58, over the ANN = 44.18; the MAE for the ARIMA = 32.37, over the ANN = 35.88; the MAPE for the ARIMA = 17.26, over the ANN = 24.26; and for the R ARIMA = 0.94 with the ANN = 0.86. These results are interesting as they give hope to water managers at the irrigation scheme and equally serve as a tool to effectively manage the irrigation scheme. Full article

This study utilizes the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model developed by the Danish Hydraulic Institute to simulate flood behavior downstream of Karot Dam under multi-year in-flow conditions. The key parameters analyzed include breach characteristics, flood duration, water depth, flow velocity, discharge rate, and downstream distance. After dam failure, the peak discharge reaches 33,171 m³/s, exceeding the 10,000-year recurrence peak flow of 32,300 m³/s, with a breach duration of 2 h. The estimated peak discharge after simulation using empirical equations and comparative analyses showed maximum flood discharges of 28,187 m³/s, 28,922 m³/s, and 29,769 m³/s, with breach widths of 181 m, 256 m, and 331 m, respectively. The peak discharge predicted to reach the outlet with travel time ranging from 4 h 25 min to 4 h 40 min. Under multi-year average inflow conditions, Mangla Dam faces no risk of failure, with a maximum outflow of 12,097 m³/s and a spillway capacity of 30,147 m³/s. The model accurately predicted discharge values, with a strong correlation coefficient of R² = 0.9653, indicating strong agreement between the actual water level data and predicted discharge. These insights are essential for developing effective emergency response strategies to mitigate the risks associated with dam failure. Full article