Search Results (33)

This article is devoted to the determination of the average daily electric load and the average electric load during the hours of maximum load, taking into account the generalized coefficient A_i, using data on electricity consumption for apartment buildings and individual residential buildings in Chelyabinsk and the cities of Dushanbe and Khorog in the Republic of Tajikistan. The results of modeling the average daily electric load, taking into account the developed generalized coefficient A_i, showed that the specific power values for apartments in apartment buildings and in individual residential buildings in the city of Chelyabinsk and the cities of Dushanbe and Khorog of the Republic of Tajikistan were overestimated, taking into account the applicability in the Republic of Tajikistan of the same standard values of specific electric loads (SELs) for apartments in apartment buildings (ABs) as in the Russian Federation. According to the results of modeling using data on the average monthly electricity consumption for 226 apartments in ABs and for individual residential buildings in Chelyabinsk, and according to the proposed approach, the average daily electric load on days during the month varied in the range of 2–3.5 kW/sq and below, while that for the cities of Dushanbe and Khorog of the Republic of Tajikistan varied in the range of 2–5 kW/sq and below, which did not exceed the SEL given by RB 256.1325800.2016. However, because of the lack of other energy sources (gas supply and hot water supply) in the conditions of the Republic of Tajikistan, on the basis of the obtained maximum load time factor and the generalized coefficient ${\mathrm{A}}_{\mathrm{i}\left(\mathrm{E}\right)}$, the obtained values of actual capacity exceeded the maximum during peak hours by 1.2–2.5 times the SEL given by RB 256.1325800.2016. To increase the durability and serviceability of power supplies and enhance the effectiveness of forecasting, the authors propose an approach based on the clustering of meteorological conditions, where each cluster has its own regression model. The decrease in mean absolute error due to clustering was 0.52 MW (57%). The use of meteorological conditions allowed the forecast error to be reduced by 0.22 MW (27%). High accuracy in electrical consumption forecasting leads to increased quality of power system management in general, including under such key indicators as reliability and serviceability. Full article

Hydrological runoff prediction plays a crucial role in water resource management and sustainable development. However, it is often constrained by the nonlinearity, strong stochasticity, and high non-stationarity of hydrological data, as well as the limited accuracy of traditional forecasting methods. Although Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) have been widely used for data augmentation to enhance predictive model training, their direct application as forecasting models remains limited. Additionally, the architectures of the generator and discriminator in WGAN-GP have not been fully optimized, and their potential in hydrological forecasting has not been thoroughly explored. Meanwhile, the strategy of jointly optimizing Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) with WGAN-GP is still in its infancy in this field. To address these challenges and promote more accurate and sustainable water resource planning, this study proposes a comprehensive forecasting model, VXWGAN-GP, which integrates Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), WGAN-GP, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Networks (BiLSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), and Attention mechanisms. The VAE enhances feature representation by learning the data distribution and generating new features, which are then combined with the original features to improve predictive performance. The generator integrates GRU, BiLSTM, and Attention mechanisms: GRU captures short-term dependencies, BiLSTM captures long-term dependencies, and Attention focuses on critical time steps to generate forecasting results. The discriminator, based on CNN, evaluates the differences between the generated and real data through adversarial training, thereby optimizing the generator’s forecasting ability and achieving high-precision runoff prediction. This study conducts daily runoff prediction experiments at the Yichang, Cuntan, and Pingshan hydrological stations in the Yangtze River Basin. The results demonstrate that VXWGAN-GP significantly improves the quality of input features and enhances runoff prediction accuracy, offering a reliable tool for sustainable hydrological forecasting and water resource management. By providing more precise and robust runoff predictions, this model contributes to long-term water sustainability and resilience in hydrological systems. Full article

Water temperature (WT) is a crucial factor indicating the quality of water in the river system. Given the significant variability in water quality, it is vital to devise more precise methods to forecast temperature in river systems and assess the water quality. This study designs and evaluates a new explainable artificial intelligence and hybrid machine-learning framework tailored for hourly and daily surface WT predictions for case studies in the Menindee region, focusing on the Weir 32 site. The proposed hybrid framework was designed by coupling a nonstationary signal processing method of Multivariate Variational Mode Decomposition (MVMD) with a bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM). The study has also employed a combination of in situ measurements with gridded and simulation datasets in the testing phase to rigorously assess the predictive performance of the newly designed MVMD-BiLSTM alongside other benchmarked models. In accordance with the outcomes of the statistical score metrics and visual infographics of the predicted and observed WT, the objective model displayed superior predictive performance against other benchmarked models. For instance, the MVMD-BiLSTM model captured the lowest Root Mean Square Percentage Error ($RMSPE$) values of 9.70% and 6.34% for the hourly and daily forecasts, respectively, at Weir 32. Further application of this proposed model reproduced the overall dynamics of the daily WT in Burtundy ($RMSPE$ = 7.88% and Mean Absolute Percentage Error ($MAPE$) = 5.78%) and Pooncarie ($RMSPE$ = 8.39% and $MAPE$ = 5.89%), confirming that the gridded data effectively capture the overall WT dynamics at these locations. The overall explainable artificial intelligence (xAI) results, based on Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), indicate that air temperature (AT) was the most significant contributor towards predicting WT. The superior capabilities of the proposed MVMD-BiLSTM model through this case study consolidate its potential in forecasting WT. Full article

In this study, due to their flexibility in forecasting, the capabilities of three regression-based machine learning models were explored, specifically random forest regression (RFr), generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and support vector regression (SVR). The above models were assessed for their suitability in modeling daily reference evapotranspiration (ET_o), based only on temperature data (T_min, T_max, T_mean), by comparing their daily ET_o results with those estimated by the conventional FAO 56 PM model, which requires a broad range of data that may not be available or may not be of reasonable quality. The RFr, GRNN, and SVR models were subjected to performance evaluation by using statistical criteria and scatter plots. Following the implementation of the ET_o models’ comparisons, it was observed that all regression-based machine learning models possess the capability to accurately estimate daily ET_o based only on temperature data requirements. In particular, the RFr model outperformed the others, achieving the highest R value of 0.9924, while the SVR and GRNN models had R values of 0.9598 and 0.9576, respectively. Additionally, the RFr model recorded the lowest values in all error metrics. Once these regression-based machine learning models have been successfully developed, they will have the potential to serve as effective alternatives for estimating daily ET_o, under current and climate change conditions, when temperature data are available. This information is crucial for effective water resources management and especially for predicting agricultural production in the context of climate change. Full article

The potential of water supply systems for renewable electrical energy production is frequently utilised by a small-scale hydropower unit (SHPU) that utilises the surplus water or pressure. However, fluctuating demand on an hourly and daily basis represents a significant challenge in operating such devices. To address this issue, a control strategy based on demand forecast is implemented, adjusting the SHPU’s inflow based on current demand conditions. Thus, individual days are categorised into control categories with similar flow conditions, and control is optimised for each category using a simplified evolutionary optimisation technique. Coupled with demand forecasts, the SHPU controller evaluates on a daily basis which set of water levels to utilise for the next day to optimise energy production. This approach is implemented in an alpine municipality, and its economic feasibility is evaluated through a long-term simulation over 10 years. This approach resulted in an annual profit increase compared to the reference status based on well-informed expert knowledge. However, it is worth noting that the approach has limited suitability for further improvements within the case study. Nonetheless, SHPUs also contribute to improving water quality and, if the electrical energy generated is directly used to operate the water supply, enhance resilience to grid failures. Full article

Reliable and accurate daily runoff predictions are critical to water resource management and planning. Probability density predictions of daily runoff can provide decision-makers with comprehensive information by quantifying the uncertainty of forecasting. Models based on quantile regression (QR) have been proven to achieve good probabilistic prediction performance, but the predicted quantiles may crossover with each other, seriously reducing the reliability of the prediction. This paper proposes non-crossing quantile regression (NCQR), which guarantees that the intervals between adjacent quantiles are greater than 0, which avoids the occurrence of quantile crossing. In order to apply NCQR to the prediction of nonlinear runoff series, this paper combines NCQR with recurrent neural network (RNN) models. In order to reduce the model training time and further improve the model accuracy, this paper simplifies the minimal gated memory (MGM) model and proposes a new RNN model, called the simplified minimal gated memory (SMGM) model. Kernel density estimation (KDE) is used to transform the discrete quantiles predicted using SMGM-NCQR into a continuous probability density function (PDF). This paper proposes a novel daily density prediction model that combines SMGM-NCQR and KDE. Three daily runoff datasets in the Yangtze River Basin in China are taken as examples and compared with the advanced models in current research in terms of five aspects: point prediction evaluation, interval prediction evaluation, probability density prediction evaluation, the degree of quantile crossing and training time. The experimental results show that the model can provide high-quality and highly reliable runoff probability density predictions. Full article

Satellite precipitation estimate (SPE) dedicated to reservoir inflow forecasting is very attractive as it can provide near-real-time information for reservoir monitoring. However, the potential of SPE retrievals with fine temporal resolution in supporting the high-quality pluvial flood inflow forecast and robust short-term operation of a reservoir remains unclear. In this study, the hydrological applicability of half-hourly Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) heavy rainfall data was explored using a synthetic experiment of flood inflow forecast at sub-daily to daily lead times and resultant reservoir short-term operation. The event-based flood forecast was implemented via the rainfall–runoff model GR4H driven by the forecasted IMERG. Then, inflow forecast-informed reservoir multi-objective optimal operation was conducted via a numerical reservoir system and assessed by the risk-based robustness indices encompassing reliability, resilience, vulnerability for water supply, and flood risk ratio for flood prevention. Selecting the Wan’an reservoir located in eastern China as the test case, the results show that the flood forecast forced with IMERG exhibits slightly lower accuracy than that driven by the gauge rainfall across varying lead times. For a specific robustness index, its trends between IMERG and gauge rainfall inputs are comparable, while its magnitude depends on varying lead times and scale ratios (i.e., the reservoir scale). The pattern that the forecast errors in IMERG increase with the lead time is changed in the resultant inflow forecast series and dynamics in the robustness indices for the optimal operation decision. This indicates that the flood forecast model coupled with reservoir operation system could partly compensate the original SPE errors. Our study highlights the acceptable hydrological applicability of IMERG rainfall towards reservoir inflow forecast for robust operation, despite the intrinsic error in SPE. Full article

As air quality has improved rapidly in recent years, the public has become more interested in whether a famous snow peak, Yaomei Feng on the Tibetan Plateau, can be seen from Chengdu, a megacity located on the western plain of the Sichuan Basin, east of the plateau. Therefore, a threshold-method-based forecasting system for snow peak sighting was developed in this study. Variables from numerical models, including cloud–water mixing ratio, cloud cover over snow peak, water mixing ratio, PM_2.5 concentration, and ground solar radiation, were used in the snow peak sighting forecast system. Terrain occlusion rate of each model grid was calculated. Monte Carlo simulations were applied for threshold determination. A WRF-CMAQ hindcast was conducted for 2020, owing to insufficient observation data, hindcast results on the snow peak sighting were compared with posts collected from social media. Estimations showed that the snow peak sighting forecast system performed well in reflecting the monthly trend of snow peak sightings, and the hindcast results matched the daily observations, especially from May to August. Accuracy of the snow peak sighting forecast model was 78.9%, recall value was 57.1%, and precision was 24.4%. Full article

Forest fires, though part of a natural forest renewal process, when frequent and on a large -scale, have detrimental impacts on biodiversity, agroforestry systems, soil erosion, air, and water quality, infrastructures, and the economy. Portugal endures extreme forest fires, with a record extent of burned areas in 2017. These complexes of extreme wildfire events (CEWEs) concentrated in a few days but with highly burned areas are, among other factors, linked to severe fire weather conditions. In this study, a comparison between several fire danger indices (named ‘multi-indices diagnosis’) is performed for the control period 2001–2021, 2007 and 2017 (May–October) for the Fire Weather Index (FWI), Burning Index (BI), Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), Continuous Haines Index (CHI), and the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI). Daily analysis for the so-called Pedrógão Grande wildfire (17 June) and the October major fires (15 October) included the Spread Component (SC), Ignition Component (IC), Initial Spread Index (ISI), Buildup Index (BUI), and the Energy Release Component (ERC). Results revealed statistically significant high above-average values for most of the indices for 2017 in comparison with 2001–2021, particularly for October. The spatial distribution of BI, IC, ERC, and SC had the best performance in capturing the locations of the two CEWEs that were driven by atmospheric instability along with a dry environment aloft. These results were confirmed by the hotspot analysis that showed statistically significant intense spatial clustering between these indices and the burned areas. The spatial patterns for SC and ISI showed high values associated with high velocities in the spread of these fires. The outcomes allowed us to conclude that since fire danger depends on several factors, a multi-indices diagnosis can be highly relevant. The implementation of a Multi-index Prediction Methodology should be able to further enhance the ability to track and forecast unique CEWEs since the shortcomings of some indices are compensated by the information retrieved by others, as shown in this study. Overall, a new forecast method can help ensure the development of appropriate spatial preparedness plans, proactive responses by civil protection regarding firefighter management, and suppression efforts to minimize the detrimental impacts of wildfires in Portugal. Full article

Hydrological modeling for water management in large watersheds requires accurate spatially-distributed rainfall time series. In case of low coverage density of ground-based measurements, gridded precipitation products (GPPs) from merged satellite-/gauge-/model-based rainfall products constitute an attractive alternative. The quality of which must, nevertheless, be verified. The objective of this study was to evaluate, at different time scales, the reliability of 6 GPPs against a 2-year record from a network of 14 rainfall gauges located in the Ankavia catchment (Madagascar). The GPPs considered in this study are the African Rainfall Estimate Climatology (ARC2), the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), the European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF Reanalysis on global land surface (ERA5-Land), the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement V06 Final (IMERG), the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), and the African Rainfall Estimation (RFEv2) products. The results suggest that IMERG (R² = 0.63, slope of linear regression a = 0.96, root mean square error RMSE = 12 mm/day, mean absolute error MAE = 5.5 mm/day) outperforms other GPPs at the daily scale, followed by RFEv2 (R² = 0.41, a = 0.94, RMSE = 15 mm/day, MAE = 6 mm/day) and ARC2 (R² = 0.30, a = 0.88, RMSE = 16 mm/day, MAE = 6.7 mm/day). All GPPs, with the exception of the ERA5, overestimate the ‘no rain’ class (0–0.2 mm/day). ARC2, IMERG, PERSIANN, and RFEv2 all underestimate rainfall occurrence in the 0.2–150 mm/day rainfall range, whilst CHIRPS and ERA5 overestimate it. Only CHIRPS and PERSIANN could estimate extreme rainfall (>150 mm/day) satisfactorily. According to the Critical Success Index (CSI) categorical statistical measure, IMERG performs quite well in detecting rain events in the range of 2–100 mm/day, whereas PERSIANN outperforms IMERG for rain events larger than 150 mm/day. Because it performs best at daily scale, only IMERG was evaluated for time scales other than daily. At the yearly and monthly time scales, the performance is good with R² = 0.97 and 0.87, respectively. At the event time scale, the probability distribution function PDF of rain gauge values and IMERG data show good agreement. However, at an hourly time scale, the correlation between ground-based measurements and IMERG data becomes poor (R² = 0.20). Overall, the IMERG product can be regarded as the most reliable gridded precipitation source at monthly, daily, and event time scales for hydrological applications in the study area, but the poor agreement at hourly time scale and the inability to detect extreme rainfall >100 mm/day may, nevertheless, restrict its use. Full article

Environmental problems and production losses associated with irrigated agriculture, such as salinity, degradation of receiving waters, such as rivers, and deep percolation of saline water to aquifers, highlight water-quality concerns that require a paradigm shift in resource-management policy. New tools are needed to assist environmental managers in developing sustainable solutions to these problems, given the nonpoint source nature of salt loads to surface water and groundwater from irrigated agriculture. Equity issues arise in distributing responsibility and costs to the generators of this source of pollution. This paper describes an alternative approach to salt regulation and control using the concept of “Real-Time Water Quality management”. The approach relies on a continually updateable WARMF (Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework) forecasting model to provide daily estimates of salt load assimilative capacity in the San Joaquin River and assessments of compliance with salinity concentration objectives at key monitoring sites on the river. The results of the study showed that the policy combination of well-crafted river salinity objectives by the regulator and the application of an easy-to use and maintain decision support tool by stakeholders have succeeded in minimizing water quality (salinity) exceedances over a 20-year study period. Full article

This study aims to develop a predictive and reliable data-driven model for forecasting the fluid production (oil, gas, and water) of existing wells and future infill wells for CO₂-enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and CO₂ storage projects. Several models were investigated, such as auto-regressive (AR), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. The models were trained based on static and dynamic parameters and daily fluid production while considering the inverse distance of neighboring wells. The developed models were evaluated using walk-forward validation and compared based on the quality metrics, span, and variation in the forecasting horizon. The AR model demonstrates a convincing generalization performance across various time series datasets with a long but varied forecasting horizon across eight wells. The LSTM model has a shorter forecasting horizon but strong generalizability and robustness in forecasting horizon consistency. MLP has the shortest and most varied forecasting horizon compared to the other models. The LSTM model exhibits promising performance in forecasting the fluid production of future infill wells when the model is developed from an existing well with similar features to an infill well. This study offers an alternative to the physics-driven model when traditional modeling is costly and laborious. Full article

The “Marion Dufresne Atmospheric Program-Indian Ocean” (MAP-IO) project is a research program that aims to collect long-term atmospheric observations in the under-instrumented Indian and Austral Oceans. As part of this project, a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) antenna was installed on the research vessel (R/V) Marion Dufresne in October 2020. GNSS raw data is intended to be used to retrieve Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) content along the Marion Dufresne route, which cruises more than 300 days per year in the tropical and austral Indian Ocean. This paper presents a first assessment of this GNSS-based IWV retrieval, based on the analysis of 9 months of GNSS raw data acquired along the route of the R/V Marion Dufresne in the Indian Ocean. A first investigation of GNSS raw data collected during the first 5 months of operation has highlighted the bad positioning of the antenna on the R/V that makes it prone to interference. Changing the location of the antenna has been shown to improve the quality of the raw data. Then, ship-borne GNSS-IWV are compared with IWV estimates deduced using more conventional techniques such as European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fifth reanalysis (ERA5), ground-launched radiosondes and permanent ground GNSS stations operating close to the route of the R/V Marion Dufresne. The rms difference of 2.79 kg m${}^{-2}$ shows a good match with ERA5 and subsequently improved after the change in location of the GNSS antenna (2.49 kg m${}^{-2}$). The match with ground-based permanent GNSS stations fluctuates between 1.30 and 3.63 kg m${}^{-2}$, which is also shown to be improved after the change in location of the GNSS antenna. However, differences with ground-launched radiosondes still exhibit large biases (larger than 2 kg m${}^{-2}$). Finally, two operational daily routine analyses (at day+1 and day+3) are presented and assessed: the rms of the differences are shown to be quite low (1 kg m${}^{-2}$ for the day+1 analyses, 0.7 kg m${}^{-2}$ for the day+3 analysis), which confirms the quality of these routine analysis. These two routine analyses are intended to provide a continuous monitoring of water vapour above the Indian Ocean and deliver ship-borne IWV with a low latency for the entire scientific community. Full article

The RHAPS (Redox-Activity And Health-Effects Of Atmospheric Primary And Secondary Aerosol) project was launched in 2019 with the major objective of identifying specific properties of the fine atmospheric aerosol from combustion sources that are responsible for toxicological effects and can be used as new metrics for health-related outdoor pollution studies. In this paper, we present the overall methodology of RHAPS and introduce the phenomenology and the first data observed. A comprehensive physico-chemical aerosol characterization has been achieved by means of high-time resolution measurements (e.g., number size distributions, refractory chemical components, elemental composition) and low-time resolution analyses (e.g., oxidative potential, toxicological assays, chemical composition). Preliminary results indicate that, at the real atmospheric conditions observed (i.e., daily PM₁ from less than 4 to more than 50 μg m⁻³), high/low mass concentrations of PM₁, as well as black carbon (BC) and water soluble Oxidative Potential (WSOP,) do not necessarily translate into high/low toxicity. Notably, these findings were observed during a variety of atmospheric conditions and aerosol properties and with different toxicological assessments. Findings suggest a higher complexity in the relations observed between atmospheric aerosol and toxicological endpoints that go beyond the currently used PM₁ metrics. Finally, we provide an outlook to companion papers where data will be analyzed in more detail, with the focus on source apportionment of PM₁ and the role of source emissions on aerosol toxicity, the OP as a predictive variable for PM₁ toxicity, and the related role of SOA possessing redox-active capacity, exposure-response relationships for PM₁, and air quality models to forecast PM₁ toxicity. Full article

Model selection for water quality forecasting depends on many factors including analyst expertise and cost, stakeholder involvement and expected performance. Water quality forecasting in arid river basins is especially challenging given the importance of protecting beneficial uses in these environments and the livelihood of agricultural communities. In the agriculture-dominated San Joaquin River Basin of California, real-time salinity management (RTSM) is a state-sanctioned program that helps to maximize allowable salt export while protecting existing basin beneficial uses of water supply. The RTSM strategy supplants the federal total maximum daily load (TMDL) approach that could impose fines associated with exceedances of monthly and annual salt load allocations of up to $1 million per year based on average year hydrology and salt load export limits. The essential components of the current program include the establishment of telemetered sensor networks, a web-based information system for sharing data, a basin-scale salt load assimilative capacity forecasting model and institutional entities tasked with performing weekly forecasts of river salt assimilative capacity and scheduling west-side drainage export of salt loads. Web-based information portals have been developed to share model input data and salt assimilative capacity forecasts together with increasing stakeholder awareness and involvement in water quality resource management activities in the river basin. Two modeling approaches have been developed simultaneously. The first relies on a statistical analysis of the relationship between flow and salt concentration at three compliance monitoring sites and the use of these regression relationships for forecasting. The second salt load forecasting approach is a customized application of the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF), a watershed water quality simulation model that has been configured to estimate daily river salt assimilative capacity and to provide decision support for real-time salinity management at the watershed level. Analysis of the results from both model-based forecasting approaches over a period of five years shows that the regression-based forecasting model, run daily Monday to Friday each week, provided marginally better performance. However, the regression-based forecasting model assumes the same general relationship between flow and salinity which breaks down during extreme weather events such as droughts when water allocation cutbacks among stakeholders are not evenly distributed across the basin. A recent test case shows the utility of both models in dealing with an exceedance event at one compliance monitoring site recently introduced in 2020. Full article