Search Results (541)

Climate change poses significant threats to Mediterranean plant species, including Laurus nobilis L., an ecologically and economically important tree. This study evaluates potential shifts in its suitable distribution areas across Türkiye under future climate scenarios [Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) and 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5)] using an ensemble species distribution model incorporating ten algorithms. Key environmental drivers—elevation, annual mean temperature (Bio1), and evaporation including sublimation and transpiration (evspsbl)—were identified as critical factors influencing habitat suitability. Results indicate substantial spatial redistributions, with habitat losses projected in inland transition zones toward continental climates, particularly in parts of the Aegean and Black Sea regions. The current suitable distribution area across the country, approximately 18.48%, could rise to 18.55% by 2040 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and to 18.76% by 2060 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, without human intervention, the species’ establishment in these new suitable distribution areas is not considered possible. Moreover, it has been determined that the suitable distribution area of the species could decrease to 17.48% by 2060 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and to 17.31% by 2080 under the SSP5-85 scenario. This result indicates that there could be a loss of more than 8% of the suitable distribution area between 2060 and 2080, according to the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Conversely, limited expansions may occur in specific areas, including the northern Aegean and the Hatay-Antep region. By 2100, despite periodic fluctuations, a net decline in suitable habitats is expected under both scenarios. Notably, spatial analysis reveals that while some newly suitable areas may emerge, natural migration will likely be insufficient for population persistence, necessitating human-assisted adaptation strategies. These findings underscore the need for proactive conservation measures, such as identifying climate-resilient provenances, assisted migration, and targeted reforestation in future suitable zones. Given that most Turkish forests are state-managed, collaboration with the General Directorate of Forestry is essential to integrate climate adaptation into long-term management plans. This study provides a framework for mitigating climate-induced habitat loss in L. nobilis while offering insights applicable to other vulnerable Mediterranean species facing similar threats. Full article

Vegetation serves as a critical ecological barrier on tropical islands, but conventional assessments often emphasize greening magnitude while overlooking persistence, structural quality, and scale-dependent attribution. In this study, we reconstructed a high-precision fractional vegetation cover (FVC) dataset for Hainan Island, China, covering the period from 2000 to 2024 using Google Earth Engine (GEE). We then combined trend analysis, emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA), the coupling coordination degree model (CCDM), RESTREND, and Geodetector to examine vegetation change from complementary perspectives. The results show that FVC increased overall and gradually shifted toward a more stable state over time. EHSA further revealed a distinct core-periphery pattern, with persistent hot spots concentrated in the central mountainous region, persistent cold spots distributed along the coastal urban belt, and oscillating hot spots occurring within agricultural transition zones. Regarding quantity-structure coupling, FVC and the aggregation index (AI) generally improved together across the island; however, some agricultural ecotones exhibited weaker structural improvement despite increasing vegetation cover, suggesting potential risks of homogenization and structural simplification. In the broad attribution analysis, vegetation recovery was primarily associated with the combined influence of climatic and human-related improvement. In the factor-specific analysis, land cover and slope showed the strongest explanatory power, and their interactions with other variables further enhanced spatial differentiation. These results demonstrate that greening magnitude alone is insufficient for evaluating vegetation change on tropical islands. Structural coordination and scale-dependent attribution should also be considered when interpreting ecological improvement and related management implications. Full article

Snow cover plays an important role in ecological stability and seasonal water regulation in the western Greater Khingan Mountains of Inner Mongolia, a cold-region transitional zone where climate warming may intensify environmental vulnerability and sustainability challenges. Using long-term remote sensing, meteorological, and topographic datasets, this study examined the spatiotemporal changes in snow cover and assessed the relative influences of climatic and geographic factors. The results showed pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with greater snow depth and longer snow cover duration occurring in the northeastern, high-altitude, gentle-slope, and north-facing areas. Snow depth showed a slight but marginally significant declining trend during 1982–2024 at a rate of 0.026 cm a⁻¹, while snow cover days decreased by 0.39 d a⁻¹ during 1982–2020. Snow cover onset exhibited a slight but significant delay, whereas snowmelt timing showed strong interannual variability. Compared with precipitation, temperature showed stronger and more persistent associations with snow cover variations, and climatic factors explained a larger proportion of snow-depth variability than geographic factors. Overall, the results suggest that regional warming has played a leading role in recent snow cover decline. These findings improve understanding of climate-sensitive snow dynamics and provide useful evidence for ecological conservation, seasonal water-resource adaptation, and sustainable regional management in cold-region landscapes of northern China. Full article

Against the backdrop of intensifying climate change and deepening digital governance, public service systems in large cities face increasingly severe and complex challenges. Based on multi-source heterogeneous data from large cities in China, this study empirically examines the relationship between climate risk and public service provision and its underlying mechanisms using two-way fixed effects models, mediation models, and threshold regression models. Findings indicate that, first, both physical and transition climate risks are significantly and negatively associated with public service provision. Second, the mediation analysis suggests that physical climate risk is linked to public service provision mainly through entrepreneurial vitality, whereas transition climate risk is linked to public service provision through knowledge spillovers and industrial upgrading. Third, this negative association is more pronounced in coastal cities and cities with larger population scales. Finally, open public data and AI-related development are associated with a partial attenuation of these negative relationships. Therefore, urban policymakers should closely monitor multiple climate-risk pathways, strengthen climate-adaptive governance with data resources and AI technologies, and incorporate differentiated climate vulnerabilities into land-use zoning, green infrastructure planning, and the spatial distribution of critical public services so as to enhance urban resilience. Full article

The Fengcheng Formation in the Mahu Sag of the Junggar Basin represents one of the oldest and most significant alkaline lacustrine systems, hosting abundant dolomite that serves as a key unconventional reservoir. However, the formation mechanism of dolomite remains unclear. This study integrates detailed petrography, geochemistry and cyclostratigraphy to elucidate the origin and distribution of dolomite. Petrographic characteristics indicate a penecontemporaneous origin for the dolomite, with no apparent hydrothermal influence. Mineralogical features exhibit a multi-zonation structure of dolomite, aligning with in situ Fe content, jointly indicating that a multi-stage formation process of dolomite from core to rim. Microbial methanogenesis likely played an important role in the dolomite formation. Spatially, dolomite is enriched in the transition zone but scarce in the depocenter zone, where sodium carbonate prevails. This distribution is primarily controlled by pH differentiation between the transition zone and the depocenter zone of the Mahu Sag. In the transition zone, orbitally driven wet–dry cycles regulated the lake-level change, which, in turn, controlled pH fluctuation, as revealed by the silica precipitation during humid phases and dissolution during arid intervals. In the depocenter zone, lake water remained at a high-pH state, which was unfavorable for dolomite formation. These findings highlight that pH dynamics, linked to orbital climate cycles, played a critical role in governing dolomite formation and distribution in this ancient alkaline lake, providing new insights for the formation of dolomite in alkaline lacustrine environments. Full article

Transmission lines in Southwestern China are highly exposed to compound hazards induced by extreme winds and ice and snow conditions. This study assesses future changes in extreme wind hazards and their spatial overlap with baseline ice susceptibility under the SSP2-4.5 emission scenario, using high-resolution dynamically downscaled climate projections. Compared to the historical period (1995–2014), the results indicate a marked intensification of extreme spring wind events over northwestern Southwestern China and the transitional zone between the Sichuan Basin and the Hengduan Mountains during 2041–2060. The occurrence frequency of wind speeds exceeding historical 50-year return levels is projected to increase by 5–10 times in complex terrain, particularly along the Golmud–Qaidam belt. The Comprehensive Extreme Wind Index (CEWI) identifies the Golmud–Wulanwusu–Qaidam river basin belt as the region of highest wind hazard amplification. Meanwhile, analysis of historical observations reveals that icing-prone conditions occur on more than 25 days each spring in the Nyenchentanglha Mountains and southeastern Tibetan Plateau valleys, establishing a baseline map of ice susceptibility. Due to methodological limitations in projecting future icing, this susceptibility map is used as a static indicator of ice-prone areas. By superimposing projected wind intensification onto the baseline ice susceptibility map, four relative hazard exposure categories are delineated. Regions of highest potential exposure are concentrated in the Bayan Har Mountains and portions of the western Hengduan Mountains, whereas northwestern basins are dominated by high wind risk alone. These results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in the relative amplification of compound hazards under future warming and provide a scenario-informed scientific basis for prioritizing regions in disaster risk reduction and resilient planning of transmission infrastructure in mountainous regions. Full article

Synergistic governance of air pollution and carbon is crucial for green transition against the backdrop of global climate change. This study explores the spatial synergistic characteristics and driving mechanisms between air pollutants and CO₂ across China in 2021 from both emission and concentration perspectives, filling the gap of single-perspective analysis. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (WRF-VPRM) to simulate CO₂ concentrations, integrating the China High Air Pollutants (CHAPs) air pollution data, anthropogenic emission inventories, the coupling and coordination degree (CCD) model, and Geodetector analysis. Results show significant regional and seasonal differences in carbon–pollutant coordination. High-emission and high-coordination zones are concentrated in North China, southern Northeast China, and eastern coastal areas, with CO, NO₂, and O₃ exhibiting stronger coordination with CO₂ than PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and SO₂. Emission synergy is mainly driven by population and GDP with strong GDP-related two-factor enhancement, while concentration synergy is mainly driven by air temperature and temperature–NDVI coupling. These findings highlight the joint effects of socioeconomic, meteorological, and ecological factors, supporting targeted pollution reduction and carbon mitigation strategies and providing a scientific basis for China’s dual carbon strategy and sustainable development. Full article

The rapid expansion of sustainable construction practices has significantly increased research on recycled aggregate concrete (RAC) over the past four decades. However, despite the growing volume of studies, a comprehensive longitudinal assessment of the thematic and structural evolution of RAC research remains limited. This study presents a bibliometric and thematic evolution analysis of global research on recycled aggregate concrete from 1983 to 2025, based on 1624 documents indexed in Scopus and analyzed using PRISMA guidelines and VOSviewer mapping techniques. Results reveal four indicative stages of development: (i) an exploratory feasibility phase focused on compressive strength and replacement ratios (1983–2000); (ii) a mechanical validation phase emphasizing durability and interfacial transition zone performance (2000–2010); (iii) a performance enhancement phase integrating supplementary cementitious materials and service-life assessment (2010–2018); and (iv) a recent sustainability-driven phase characterized by life-cycle assessment, circular economy frameworks, and emerging AI-assisted optimization approaches (post-2018). China, India, and the United States dominate scientific production, while co-citation networks highlight the consolidation of specialized yet interconnected research communities. Keyword evolution analysis indicates a progressive shift from mechanical feasibility toward environmental impact mitigation and predictive modeling. Despite substantial advances, research gaps persist in tropical climate performance assessment, full-scale structural applications, and standardized mix-design methodologies for high-replacement RAC. The findings provide a structured understanding of the intellectual structure and evolution of the field, offering guidance for future research directions and performance-based sustainable concrete design strategies. Full article

The “New Arctic” regime represents a prominent climatic feature of the Arctic Ocean under global warming, characterized by persistently low summer sea ice extent, a marked reduction in sea ice thickness, and an expansion of open water areas at high latitudes. As a key indicator of the Arctic sea ice system, the spatiotemporal evolution of sea ice thickness and its underlying driving mechanisms remain incompletely understood. Using reanalysis datasets and remote sensing observations, this study identifies major abrupt shifts in Arctic sea ice thickness under the New Arctic regime, reveals the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of winter sea ice thickness, and examines the driving factors from both thermodynamic and dynamic perspectives. The results show that the evolution of Arctic sea ice thickness can be divided into three phases: a high-level period during the “Traditional Arctic” (1979–1992), a rapid thinning period during the New Arctic transition (1993–2012), and a low-level stabilization period in the New Arctic regime (2013–2023). The first EOF mode of winter sea ice thickness depicts a spatially consistent thinning pattern across the entire Arctic, with the most significant reduction occurring in the multi-year ice regions north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Greenland. The second EOF mode exhibits an out-of-phase variation between the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic, accompanied by a shrinking amplitude and weakened regional oscillations. The coupling between surface air temperature and sea ice thickness displays distinct phase dependence: their negative correlation is strongest during the transition period (r = −0.78, p < 0.001) but becomes statistically insignificant in the New Arctic regime. Sea ice motion speed exhibits an overall accelerating trend, which extends from the marginal seasonal ice zones toward the high-latitude multi-year ice regions, accompanied by a notably enhanced sensitivity of sea ice motion to wind forcing. Sea ice volume flux through the Fram Strait is primarily controlled by ice motion speed, whose contribution to the flux is approximately 2.6 times that of ice thickness. The recovery of ice drift speed offsets the thinning of sea ice cover, leading to a partial rebound in volume flux during the New Arctic steady state. This study identifies the evolutionary patterns and drivers of Arctic sea ice thickness under the New Arctic regime, providing a scientific basis for further understanding the changes in the Arctic climate system and associated air–sea ice interactions. Full article

Using GIMMS NDVI3g+ data (1982–2022) together with ERA5-Land temperature and precipitation, this study examined long-term vegetation dynamics in the Indus River Basin (IRB) and used a residual trend framework for cautious first-order attribution. Basin-averaged NDVI increased significantly at 0.0061 per decade (p < 0.05), and 65.5% of the basin showed greening, mainly in irrigated croplands and river-adjacent agricultural zones, whereas 12.6% showed degradation concentrated in rapidly urbanizing areas, cryosphere margins, and desert fringes. Partial correlation and residual analyses indicate that climate-related enhancement was most evident in upper-elevation cryosphere transition zones and some lower-basin barren lands, whereas non-climatic residual effects were especially important in intensively managed agricultural landscapes. Because the attribution model includes only temperature and precipitation, the residual component is interpreted here as a non-climatic residual rather than a direct measure of human activity. The study, therefore, provides a spatially explicit basin-wide assessment of vegetation change while highlighting the uncertainty and interpretation limits of residual-based attribution. Full article

Drought events have become more frequent worldwide under ongoing climate change. However, how precipitation deficits evolve into runoff deficits across contrasting dry and humid climate regions, and which factors control this transition, remains insufficiently understood. This study takes five climate zones in China (arid, semi-arid, semi-humid, humid–semi-humid, and humid) from 1970 to 2020 as examples to explore the propagation process of drought and its key driving factors. We used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), maximum correlation coefficient method, Kendall’s test, and multiple linear regression to identify the drought propagation time (DPT), its dynamic changes, and its main influencing factors. The results indicate that DPT exhibits significant seasonal and regional variations: on a national scale, its peak occurs in winter (7.35 months) and its trough in summer (2.54 months); specifically, propagation times in humid regions are relatively short and stable, whereas those in semi-arid, semi-humid, and humid–semi-humid regions are relatively long and highly variable. Temperature (20.69% in spring; 16.67% in summer) and potential evaporation dominate in spring, autumn, and winter, while summer precipitation (9.38%) also has a significant impact. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has the most significant impact on humid regions, increasing the model R² from 34.6–37.2% to 43.7–45.0%. These results improve the understanding of drought propagation mechanisms across climatic regions, highlight the significant influence of ENSO on seasonal and regional variations in DPT, and provide a basis for regional drought early warning and water-resource management. Full article

Optimizing nutrient uptake efficiency (NUE) through an understanding of system-level dynamics and crop-specific physiological thresholds is essential for the resilience of North European vegetable production under shifting climatic conditions. This study evaluated the uptake and efficiency of macro- and secondary nutrients (N, P, K, Ca, Mg) in cabbage, carrot, red beet, and onion over a five-year period (2021–2025) in Latvia, comparing organic and integrated management systems. It was hypothesized that NUE on commercial farms is currently suboptimal due to standardized bulk applications and that systems integrating sustainable practices would demonstrate higher nutrient uptake efficiency than those relying exclusively on mineral fertilization. The results revealed a notable yield–input divergence, where increased fertilization rates failed to provide proportional yield gains, as evidenced by the lack of a strong linear relationship (R² < 0.07) and variable correlation coefficients (e.g., r = 0.52 for N in cabbage and r = −0.47 for Ca in carrot). These findings suggest that abiotic stressors and technical constraints may outweigh the influence of nutrient volume alone. This divergence was less pronounced in organic farming systems compared to integrated ones and varied notably by crop. Such species-specific responses indicate a complex role for mineral nutrition in root crops that requires further physiological investigation. No consistent differences in nutrient concentrations were observed between farming systems, indicating that inter-annual climatic variability is the dominant driver of nutrient dynamics. Furthermore, the integration of green manures and supplemental irrigation triggered extreme apparent system-level N-NUE values (exceeding 500% in some cases), reflecting the successful mineralization of legacy nitrogen and enhanced mass flow to the root zone. The study concludes that current fertilization methodologies in the Baltic region may lead to over-application. To ensure climate-resilient horticulture, management strategies must transition toward balancing ionic ratios (Ca:K) and synchronizing inputs with specific crop removal rates, rather than relying on standardized bulk applications. Full article

The Yellow River Basin in Inner Mongolia (YRBIM) is a typical arid—semiarid ecological transition zone highly sensitive to climate change. Using long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data together with meteorological and land cover data, this study applied the Sen+Mann–Kendall method and path coefficient analysis to quantify the direct and indirect effects of climatic factors on vegetation coverage. The YRBIM experienced a non-significant warm–wet trend from 1998 to 2019, characterized by slight increases in precipitation and temperature with asynchronous spatial patterns. Vegetation coverage generally improved, with high coverage areas expanding by 12.66% and low coverage areas decreasing by 10.04%. Improvement occurred mainly in eastern croplands and grasslands, while degradation in the northwest coincided with urban expansion and mining. Precipitation showed a highly significant positive correlation with the NDVI at 0.7510. The direct effect of precipitation was dominant at 0.7515, while the indirect effect was negligible at 0.0005. Temperature showed a weak inhibitory effect with a comprehensive effect of 0.0302, where the indirect inhibitory effect at 0.0400 slightly exceeded the direct promotional effect at 0.0098. These response patterns were consistent across most land cover types, except in rural settlements and unused land where temperature showed a weak positive influence. This study provides a scientific basis for ecological conservation and sustainable management in arid—semiarid transition zones. Full article

The decarbonization of existing buildings remains a major challenge, particularly in contexts characterized by high energy demand and heating systems based on fossil fuels. While electrification is widely recognized as a key pathway, its direct application is often limited by building and operating conditions. This study investigates the potential of hybrid heating systems as transitional solutions through a large-scale numerical parametric simulation analysis based on representative models of the Italian residential building stock. The analysis explores the interaction between climatic conditions, system operation, and energy performance under standardized assumptions. The results reveal that hybrid systems achieve significant reductions in non-renewable primary energy (up to 39–44%) and CO₂ emissions (approximately 50–58%), primarily through the substitution of natural gas with electricity. Conversely, total primary energy may increase (approximately 2–26%) due to the contribution of renewable energy associated with heat pump operation. Operating cost savings are observed in the 25–40% range, with slight variation depending on climatic conditions. The effectiveness is not uniform, with maximum benefits in intermediate climate zones and reduced performance under more severe conditions. Overall, hybrid systems show stable and reliable performance across heterogeneous building configurations, supporting their role as robust mid-term transition technologies toward building decarbonization. Full article

Based on monthly meteorological observations from 57 stations in Jiangsu Province during 1961–2022, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated to characterize regional dry–wet variability. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was applied to extract the dominant spatially coherent dry–wet modes, and cross-wavelet analysis was further employed to examine, in the time–frequency domain, the mode-specific responses to multiscale climate drivers, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Sunspot Number (SSN), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The results show that dry–wet variability in Jiangsu Province is primarily organized by a regionally coherent mode (EOF1, explaining 56.3% of the total variance) and a north–south dipole mode (EOF2, explaining 17.8%), with the zero-value line of EOF2 closely aligned with the Huaihe River–Subei Irrigation Canal climatic transition zone. The temporal coefficient of EOF1 (PC1) exhibits a significant regime shift around 2013, followed by a pronounced wetting trend across the entire region. This change may reflect recent hydroclimatic adjustments in the study area, although the present study does not attempt a formal attribution of the respective thermal and precipitation contributions. In contrast, the temporal coefficient of EOF2 (PC2) undergoes an abrupt change around 1980, indicating a transition of the spatial dry–wet pattern from “southern drought–northern flood” to “southern flood–northern drought,” broadly consistent with an interdecadal climatic transition. Cross-wavelet analysis further reveals that PC1 is closely associated with ENSO at interannual timescales, with a lag of approximately 4–6 months, while its long-term variability shows time–frequency coherence with SSN. PC2 also exhibits time–frequency coherence with SSN at longer timescales, with an apparent phase transition around the 1980s; however, this low-frequency signal should be interpreted cautiously because the underlying physical mechanism remains uncertain. Overall, this study shows that dry–wet variability in Jiangsu Province is organized by two leading spatial modes with distinct temporal evolution and scale-dependent climate linkages. These findings provide new evidence for understanding hydroclimatic variability in monsoon transition zones and offer a basis for spatially differentiated drought–flood risk assessment. Full article