Search Results (642)

Volcanic super-eruptions can perturb atmospheric composition and climate-relevant radiative properties in ways that are not captured by simple scaling from Pinatubo-like events. This study presents a reduced-order regime theory for the coupled evolution of stratospheric sulfur, sulfate aerosol burden, reactive halogens, ozone loss, stratospheric thermal adjustment, and aerosol residence time. The analysis is intended as an interpretive tool for organizing sulfur-rich volcanic scenarios, comparing literature-based benchmark classes, and designing chemistry–climate model experiments, rather than as an event-specific calibration or a substitute for three-dimensional models. Four control parameters structure the response: sulfur loading relative to microphysical saturation, effective halogen strength, ash-uptake efficiency, and dynamical lifetime sensitivity, with hemispheric asymmetry treated diagnostically. An external consistency check against published Pinatubo-like, idealized 10–40 teragrams of sulfur (Tg S), Toba-like, and Los Chocoyos-like responses is used to evaluate whether the reduced theory reproduces the expected rank ordering of aerosol saturation, forcing-efficiency decline, ozone-loss amplification, ash-driven sulfur suppression, and residence-time sensitivity. This comparison does not assign pointwise error margins against three-dimensional model output; it evaluates regime membership, sign of response, rank ordering, and broad magnitude behavior. The main conclusion is that volcanic super-eruption impacts are governed by interacting regime transitions rather than by sulfur mass alone. Microphysical saturation can limit forcing efficiency, halogens can shift the system toward chemically amplified ozone depletion, ash uptake can reduce the effective sulfur burden during the early phase, and dynamical state can control persistence and hemispheric expression. By separating these mechanisms, the study provides a compact basis for interpreting large volcanic perturbations to atmospheric chemistry and for designing targeted model experiments on extreme eruption scenarios. Full article

Urban thermal comfort in winter is an important but insufficiently quantified component of sustainable, climate-adapted urban design in cold-weather cities facing energy-intensive winter environmental challenges. This study uses high-resolution simulations to evaluate discomfort across a downtown district in Sapporo, Japan, based on the standard effective temperature (SET*) index and universal thermal climate index (UTCI). A total of 2438 sampling points were assessed under 69 hourly winter scenarios. Discomfort hotspots were found in east–west streets and wind-exposed corners, driven by limited solar access or intensified wind. SET* is a more sensitive indicator under cold conditions, particularly in shaded areas. Wind speed and mean radiant temperature distributions revealed the environmental drivers of discomfort. The influence of building height was confirmed via quantitative correlation analysis, which revealed significant negative relationships between adjacent building heights and SET* across all streets analyzed, especially in east–west street canyons, where correlation coefficients ranged from −0.80 to −0.52 in the representative street. These findings contribute to urban sustainability by providing a quantitative tool for identifying winter thermal vulnerability and supporting passive, climate-adapted public-space design. The proposed framework can help improve winter walkability, outdoor activity, and the environmental quality of downtown spaces in cold-region cities. Full article

Accurate performance prediction for large offshore wind turbines requires a principled treatment of uncertainty in both the wind resource and the rotor design parameters. In the present work, we develop a surrogate-based, multi-level uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework coupling a physics-based Blade Element Momentum (BEM) solver with a spectral Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) surrogate that replaces the expensive Monte Carlo loop and apply it to the IEA 15 MW offshore reference wind turbine. The framework is completed by Sobol variance-based global sensitivity analysis. The contribution is methodological rather than algorithmic: although each individual ingredient (PCE, Sobol, BEM, and Jensen) is well established, their joint deployment in a single, internally consistent, end-to-end probabilistic workflow that simultaneously delivers (i) aerodynamic–structural UQ with analytical Sobol ranking, (ii) a like-for-like cross-comparison of three reference turbines, (iii) a quantitative leading-edge icing degradation study, and (iv) a farm-level wake-steering optimization on the same IEA 15 MW reference rotor yields a unified probabilistic envelope from which manufacturing tolerances, cold-climate investment thresholds, and farm-layout/control trade-offs can be read off consistently. Five input parameters are treated as random variables: hub-height wind speed (Weibull, k = 2.2, c = 9.8 m/s), air density, blade chord length, twist angle, and rotor speed. A degree-4 sparse PCE is built by non-intrusive spectral projection using N = 5000 Sobol quasi-random realizations, which allows the Sobol indices to be recovered analytically from the expansion coefficients at essentially no extra cost. Three parallel engineering studies complement the core UQ analysis: (A) a head-to-head comparison of the NREL 5 MW, DTU 10 MW, and IEA 15 MW reference turbines; (B) a quantitative assessment of leading-edge ice accretion at four severity levels; and (C) a Jensen-based wake optimization for a 25-turbine offshore array with static wake steering. The main results are as follows: the turbine reaches C_p,_max = 0.480 at λ_opt = 8.51, and an annual energy production (AEP) of 71,261 MWh/year (PCE: 70,840 ± 2,140 MWh/year, 95% CI). Wind speed emerges as the dominant driver of C_p variance (S₁ = 0.412), followed by blade twist (0.198) and chord (0.143). Severe icing (30 kg/m) reduces C_p by 18.2% and increases the blade-root Damage Equivalent Load (DEL) by 18.5%. For the array, the optimal spacing (s_x = 8D, s_y = 6D) gives a farm efficiency of 89.6% and 1296 GWh/year, and a 15° wake-steering offset adds a further +3.2% to farm AEP. Compared with plain Monte Carlo, the sparse PCE delivers the same statistics with about 36% fewer model evaluations and a relative error below 0.8%. Full article

As declared in the European Green Deal, the decarbonization of the EU energy system is essential for achieving Europe’s climate neutrality targets, demanding a substantial expansion of renewable energy sources and the rapid phase-out of coal and gas. It is therefore essential that newly installed PV products within the EU are designed to avoid creating additional environmental burdens due to environmental impacts during production and at the end of life (EOL) of photovoltaic (PV) modules. This study presents a life cycle assessment (LCA) of sustainable/green PV module designs in terms of recyclability using advanced high-quality recycling technologies. It compares two product systems both based on mono c-Si PV technology and the glass–glass (G–G) module design: 1. Passivated Emitter and Rear Contact (PERC) and 2. Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (TOPCon) cell technologies, which are assessed under production scenarios in China and Germany, and two recycling scenarios (hypothetical high-recovery recycling and partial recycling) using inventory data from eco-invent and literature sources. The results across most impact categories show that the PERC and TOPCon module designs produced in Germany with high-recovery recycling as the end-of-life strategy exhibit lower impacts than those produced in China with partial recycling as the end-of-life strategy under the adopted assumptions such as electricity mix and end-of-life modelling choices for module-only impacts (excluding BOS components). The climate change results show that TOPCon cell design under high-recovery recycling yields 10.4% lower emissions than the PERC cell design under partial recycling in Germany and 9.7% lower in China. However, both module designs emit 26.6% and 27.2% less GHG emissions when produced in Germany compared to production in China, respectively, which is line with earlier studies. With the exception of human toxicity, both PERC and TOPCon cell technologies perform better in this study than previously reported in reviewed LCA studies, reflecting the use of more recent state-of-the-art industry data concerning manufacturing requirements. The sensitivity analysis carried out on the design changes and electricity grid mix available shows that any improvements in the design process and increases in renewable energy penetration into the grid corresponds to a proportional reduction in environmental impacts across all impact categories. Full article

This paper aims to analyse the mechanisms of microscopic diffusion and adhesion at the interface between polymer-modified asphalt and aggregate at high blending ratios. Using molecular dynamics simulations, a model of the polymer-modified asphalt–aggregate interface was developed. The study systematically investigated the effects of three types of modifiers—SBS, SBR and PE—on the wetting, diffusion and adhesion behaviour at the asphalt interface within a content range of 2.5% to 10% and under various temperature conditions. The results indicate that an increase in modifier content inhibits the migration of light fractions towards the interface, leading to weakened interfacial diffusion and non-uniform wetting under high-temperature conditions. In contrast, the SBS and SBR systems are more sensitive to changes in temperature and modifier content, while the PE system exhibits a relatively weaker diffusion attenuation effect. The interfacial adhesion results further indicate that the adhesion energy between modified asphalt and aggregate is higher at low temperatures and is primarily governed by van der Waals forces; as the modifier content increases, interfacial adhesion at low temperatures is enhanced, but construction and coating performance at high temperatures are somewhat affected. This study elucidates the microstructural diffusion and adhesion mechanisms of high-content polymer-modified asphalt under cold-climate conditions, providing a theoretical basis for the selection of modified asphalt materials and the optimisation of mix designs in low-temperature regions. Full article

White pine blister rust disease (WPBR), caused by Cronartium ribicola, ranks among the most destructive pathogens of five-needle pines. We developed a hydroxynaphthol blue (HNB)-based Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assay enabling rapid, visual detection of C. ribicola directly following DNA extraction. LAMP primers targeting the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region were designed and validated through in silico comparison with related Cronartium species and in vitro testing against sympatric forest fungi. The optimized 25 μL reaction contained 8.0 mM Mg²⁺, 1.0 mM dNTPs, and an inner-to-outer primer ratio of 8:1, with amplification conducted at 62 °C for 40 min. Positive amplification produced a distinctive color transition from purple to sky blue, enabling visual interpretation without instrumentation. Under the tested conditions, the assay achieved a detection limit of 460 ± 3.2 fg/μL genomic DNA—a 10-fold improvement over conventional PCR in concentration-based sensitivity. Assay applicability was evaluated using 211 field-collected Pinus armandii samples sourced from China. Detection efficiency varied significantly across tissue types. Symptomatic bark exhibited a substantially higher positive detection rate (68.97%, 95% CI: 49.2–84.7%) compared to needles from symptomatic trees (18.75%, 95% CI: 4.1–45.7%). Among asymptomatic samples, 3.75% of bark samples tested positive for C. ribicola DNA, whereas all needle samples were negative. Geographically, positive detections clustered at several discrete sampling sites in southwestern China, predominantly at elevated elevations. The established LAMP-HNB assay provides a rapid, visually interpretable diagnostic tool for early detection and quarantine monitoring of WPBR following DNA extraction. Beyond its practical utility, this assay establishes valuable baseline data for targeted disease surveillance in the context of evolving climate conditions. Full article

The aim of this review is to provide a critical synthesis of peer-reviewed literature focusing exclusively on MSWI, rather than the broader field of Waste-to-Energy, based on a search in Scopus and a structured narrative synthesis. The methodology comprised eight Scopus queries defined for the main analytical axes of MSWI, deduplication, screening according to the established eligibility criteria, a layered corpus design, and domain-specific weighting of evidence within the framework of a structured narrative synthesis. This yielded 5435 unique records after deduplication, from which the main time window of 2010–2026 and a layer of publications from 2019 to 2026 were extracted. The review shows that the net balance of MSWI does not result from a single parameter or a single evaluation metric, but from the interplay between feedstock variability, combustion management, air pollution control (APC) configuration, residue management, and the utilisation of recovered heat and energy. Modern APC systems have reduced stack emissions, but do not eliminate the significance of transient states or the transfer of pollutants to fly ash and APC residues. Bottom ash exhibits conditional potential for material and metal recovery, whilst fly ash and APC residues remain the main constraint on recovery pathways. Environmental, climatic, health and economic assessments remain highly sensitive to system boundaries, functional units, counterfactual scenarios, the local energy mix, the quality of exposure reconstruction and integration with district heating. The added value of the review lies in maintaining MSWI as the sole analytical core and integrating the process, emissions, residues and system assessments within a single interpretative framework focused on comparability, trade-offs and the MSWI system balance. Full article

In line with circular bioeconomy goals, this research focuses on circular materials—reused, bio-based (including waste-derived ones) and recycled—as a strategic solution to simultaneously cut Embodied Carbon and material resource uptake in buildings. The research develops a methodology for early, rapid assessment of circular materials’ contribution to cutting climate-altering emissions and material consumption, supporting architects during the initial design stage, where strategic choices are most impactful. Multiple case studies of buildings employing 12 circular design strategies and different materials were analysed, of which 10 are presented here, mapping approaches and material mixes. In parallel, by analysing 15 existing circularity and sustainability evaluation frameworks at the building and product level, screening 80 relevant indicators and integrating specific ones, the research develops a set of eight KPIs enabling designers to assess alternative combinations of reused, bio-based and recycled building materials from the early design stage. Validated on three case studies, the KPIs proved sensitive in capturing the diversity of circular material strategies by measuring circular material origin, local materials, disassemblability, material and Embodied Carbon intensity, with the latter proving particularly effective in cross-measuring the impacts of material choices. The research thus provides operational support for rapid comparative assessments guiding design decisions during early stages, focusing on materials, processes and relative impacts. Full article

Systematic spatiotemporal records of the International Roughness Index (IRI) for South American Andean rural corridors remain scarce, and available deterioration models, calibrated mostly under temperate or arid conditions, transfer to Andean tropical contexts with considerable uncertainty. This exploratory baseline study addresses that gap on the 36.50 km Loja–Catamayo corridor in southern Ecuador under three a priori constraints: eleven IRI campaigns, one meteorological station whose record starts ten months after the first campaign, and a traffic series anchored on a base-year count conducted ten years before the monitoring window. The campaigns, conducted with a Roughometer III between 2023 and 2025, were integrated with daily climate records from the INAMHI Villonaco station, a yearly AADT series cross-validated against a contemporary classified count, and the as-designed pavement structural section. The non-parametric framework combined the Mann–Kendall trend test with a 25-cell Antecedent Moisture Index sensitivity grid, AASHTO 1993 Structural Number computation, Sayers-derived Present Serviceability Index, and linear, exponential, and Gompertz modelling. The results revealed a statistically significant positive monotonic trend robust to post-peak truncation (H₁ supported) and no detectable short-term climate–IRI association under any of the twenty-five AMI specifications tested (H₂ not supported at the available resolution). The corridor exhibits a structural reserve exceeding projected cumulative ESAL demand by an order of magnitude yet reached the functional intervention threshold at one-third of its design service life. This decoupling between structural adequacy and functional decay locates the dominant deterioration mechanism in the bituminous surface and the drainage regime, supporting surface preservation interventions as the operationally appropriate response. Full article

Achieving deep decarbonization of the residential building sector is essential for meeting Canada’s climate commitments and Net Zero targets. However, large-scale residential retrofit planning is often constrained by the time, cost, and expertise required for detailed building energy modelling. This study evaluates the applicability of a typology-based retrofit planning tool developed by Homes to Zero (HTZ) as a simplified alternative to conventional simulation-based analysis. Two representative Canadian residential archetypes—a detached bungalow and a two-storey semi-detached home located in Toronto—were analyzed using both the HTZ platform and detailed hourly energy simulations conducted in eQuest (DOE-2.2 engine). Baseline energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were first compared across the two modelling approaches. Results show strong agreement for the bungalow case, with differences of less than 1% for electricity and natural gas consumption and approximately 4% for total emissions. For the two-storey dwelling, baseline electricity estimates were identical while natural gas consumption differed by approximately 17%, highlighting the sensitivity of physics-based simulations to envelope and operational assumptions. Retrofit scenarios were then compared using single-measure GHG reductions derived from HTZ and incremental simulation results from eQuest. While both tools identified electrification through air-source heat pumps as the dominant emission-reduction strategy, differences were observed in the magnitude of savings for envelope upgrades and secondary measures. The HTZ platform also provides approximate retrofit cost estimates, enabling order-of-magnitude budgeting, whereas eQuest requires separate costing analysis. This study is framed as a screening-level benchmark rather than a full validation exercise, highlighting the trade-off between scalability and modelling fidelity in residential retrofit planning. The results suggest that typology-based tools can provide credible screening-level guidance for residential retrofit planning and large-scale policy analysis, while detailed simulation remains valuable for evaluating integrated retrofit packages and design-level decisions. Full article

The DC/AC ratio is a critical design variable in utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems because it governs inverter loading, clipping behavior, energy yield, and long-term economic performance. However, conventional sizing approaches often rely on heuristic rules or deterministic annual yield optimization without explicitly accounting for the thermodynamic, optical, and stochastic mechanisms that reshape the DC power envelope. This study develops a physics-informed and bankability-oriented PVsyst-based framework for optimal DC/AC sizing by integrating irradiance transposition, incidence-angle modifier losses, temperature-dependent semiconductor behavior, inverter clipping dynamics, degradation, and discounted lifetime levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). A 10 MWp fixed-tilt PV plant located in Western Türkiye under Mediterranean climatic conditions is analyzed. The base-case simulation yields 15.20 GWh/year with a specific yield of 1519 kWh/kWp/year and a performance ratio of 87.5%, while temperature losses are identified as the dominant loss mechanism, accounting for 6.21% of the annual energy reduction. A regression-based thermal sensitivity analysis shows that monthly PR decreases by approximately $4.9\times {10}^{-3}$ per °C increase in ambient temperature. The DC/AC sweep identifies an optimum range of 1.35–1.40, where improved inverter utilization balances nonlinear clipping growth. A temporal clipping analysis confirms that clipping is concentrated during summer midday periods and is sensitive to sub-hourly irradiance variability. Correlated Monte Carlo simulations and LCOE cost-sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the optimum remains structurally robust under uncertainty, degradation, and inverter cost assumptions. The results show that DC/AC sizing should be treated as a coupled thermodynamic–optical–electrical–economic optimization problem rather than a simple capacity-matching decision. Full article

Conventional hydroponic systems, although resource-efficient, face significant sustainability challenges due to the discharge of nutrient-rich effluents, resulting in severe environmental pressures. In alignment with the European Union’s “Farm to Fork” strategy, innovative circular economy approaches are required to decouple crop production from environmental degradation. This study evaluates a novel Cascade Hydroponic System (CHS), designed to maximize resource utility by recovering and reusing the drainage from a primary salt-sensitive crop (cucumber) to a secondary, more salt-tolerant cultivation (melon). A comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is performed in accordance with the Product Environmental Footprint Category Rules (PEFCRs), utilizing primary operational data and direct monitoring of nutrient concentrations in the system’s effluent. The convergence of these elements establishes the novelty of this study. The CHS is benchmarked against a conventional Separated Hydroponic System (SHS) for a functional unit (FU) defined as “the simultaneous production of 1.0 kg of cucumber and 1.0 kg of melon”. The CHS demonstrated lower characterized impacts compared to SHS across all 16 assessed Environmental Footprint categories under the examined pilot-scale conditions. The key findings include reductions of 65.7%, 41.8%, and 30% in Water Use, Climate Change, and Freshwater Eutrophication scores, respectively. Based on the normalization results, the CHS revealed a 58% lower total environmental footprint score compared to SHS. Process contribution analysis indicates that the marked decrease in the environmental burden is associated with the use of fertilizers. While these inputs represent a significant share of the conventional system’s impact scores, their contribution was substantially lower in the CHS. Although based on pilot-scale operational data from a single crop cycle, the results highlight the considerable environmental potential of cascading nutrient reuse configurations, thus enhancing resource use efficiency and mitigating the associated environmental impacts while also contributing novel empirical knowledge to a field that has been limitedly studied. Full article

Rapid vertical growth in Tier-2 Indian cities is reshaping residential forms and may affect cooling demand, passive comfort, overheating severity, and peak electricity demand. This study examines the influence of building height and window-to-wall ratio (WWR) on residential thermal performance in Patna, India, a composite-climate context. Five archetypes–detached house, row-house, low-rise apartment, mid-rise apartment, and high-rise apartment–were simulated in DesignBuilder/EnergyPlus Version 23.1.0 under 20%, 30%, and 40% WWR scenarios. Passive and active operation modes were evaluated through 30 annual simulations, generating 262,800 hourly records. External shading was excluded, and occupancy and ventilation assumptions were standardized to create a controlled benchmark design. Performance was assessed using annual cooling energy demand (ACED), all-hour and occupied-hour passive comfort percentage, adaptive degree-hours (ADH), and peak demand indicators. At 20% WWR, ACED increased from 33.13 kWh/m²·yr in the low-rise archetype to 42.79 kWh/m²·yr in the high-rise archetype, while all-hour passive comfort decreased from 68.16% to 49.28%. The row-house archetype performed best due to reduced exposed envelope area. A second-order surrogate model provided exploratory scenario-level approximation across 15 archetype–WWR cases. The findings support further investigation of morphology-sensitive residential envelope guidance within bounded composite-climate benchmark conditions. Full article

Improving indoor thermal comfort in high-altitude rural housing remains a persistent challenge for low-income communities in the Peruvian Andes. This study evaluates the thermal performance of a standardized Sumaq Wasi modular dwelling in Langui (Cusco, Peru, 3969 m.a.s.l.) and proposes passive envelope modifications that enhance comfort while preserving economic feasibility. A multi-objective optimization approach combining EnergyPlus simulations with the NSGA-II algorithm was applied to minimize total thermal discomfort ($TD{I}_{total}$), bedroom underheating ($TDI{U}_{bedrooms}$), and 10-year life cycle costs ($LCC$). The calibrated model incorporated field measurements of indoor air temperatures. Global sensitivity analysis using Morris and Sobol methods identified ceiling thermal transmittance as the dominant contributor for $TD{I}_{total}$, and exterior wall solar absorptance as the driver of $TDI{U}_{bedrooms}$. Optimization reduced $TD{I}_{total}$ and $TDI{U}_{bedrooms}$ to 22% and 8% of the base case, requiring additional investments of USD 2347 and USD 1959, respectively, above the base case cost (USD 8100). Cost-neutral strategies, raising exterior wall solar absorptance to 0.9 and increasing the skylight-to-roof ratio (13.1%), reduced bedroom underheating to 30% of the base case and outperformed a scenario with two 400 W electric heaters. These results demonstrate that context-appropriate passive design can substantially improve comfort under severe climatic and financial constraints. Full article

Urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to climate-related stresses such as heatwaves, flooding, and resource inefficiencies, requiring integrated, data-driven strategies to enhance resilience and sustainability. This study presents a modular assessment and planning framework that combines Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Building Information Modeling (BIM), City Information Modeling (CIM), microclimate simulations (ENVI-met, SWMM), Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and remote sensing within a unified decision support interface (DSI). The framework operates across multiple spatial scales—from individual buildings to entire cities—to assess climate vulnerability, support evidence-based urban regeneration, and inform sustainable renovation strategies. It enables the identification of multifunctional interventions that reduce climate risks while improving energy efficiency, resource management, and environmental quality. Urban areas are classified based on their exposure and sensitivity to climate stressors, providing a systematic basis for prioritizing adaptation and mitigation measures. The approach is validated through a case study in Daegu, Republic of Korea, a city facing an aging building stock and increasing climatic pressures. The framework is presented as a conceptual design operating at Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 3–4, indicating that it has passed its proof-of-concept, with key components including ENVI-met microclimate simulations and Sentinel-2/Landsat remote sensing processing demonstrably operational for the Daegu context. Illustrative performance benchmarks drawn from the peer-reviewed literature demonstrate that framework-guided interventions can achieve urban heat island reductions of 1.5–4.0 °C via green roof and reflective surface combinations; stormwater runoff reductions of 30–60% through sustainable urban drainage systems; and building energy savings of 25–45 kWh/m²/yr from deep façade renovation. Its modular and transferable design ensures applicability across diverse urban contexts with similar climatic and infrastructural challenges. Full article