Search Results (736)

Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten coastal wetland ecosystems, and smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) is among the most damaging invaders along the coast of China. We compiled occurrence records from the invaded range (China) and native range (United States) and retained 358 and 291 spatially thinned occurrences after quality control and definition of coastal-accessible areas. We assembled climatic, topographic, land use, soil and anthropogenic predictors and fitted species distribution models using the biomod2 ensemble-modeling framework, complemented by an ecospat-based comparison of native and invaded niche spaces. The ensemble model (EM) showed high predictive accuracy (China: AUC = 0.98, TSS = 0.99; USA: AUC = 0.99, TSS = 0.94). Elevation (73.6%) and human influence (6.0%) were the strongest predictors, highlighting the role of intertidal geomorphology and human-mediated propagule pressure. Niche overlap between ranges was low (Schoener’s D = 0.13), and the invaded niche showed substantial unfilling (0.36), indicating additional environmental space at risk of colonization in China. The current suitable habitat forms a continuous coastal belt from the Bohai Rim through the Yellow Sea–East China Sea to the South China Sea. Projections under future climate change suggest predominantly stable suitable areas with localized expansions but potential contractions in some periods. Our results may support the early warning, surveillance prioritization, and adaptive management of S. alterniflora under climate change. Full article

In this work, we inspected the friendship network on Twitter (recently rebranded as X), concentrating on individuals and organizations intertwined with the energy field. We particularly focus on seasoned professionals, corporate entities, and domain specialists, all connected through ‘following’ relationships. By meticulously examining these ties, we uncover several distinct groupings within the network, each defined by the unique roles its members occupy. Our analysis demonstrates that the natural emergence of such clusters on social platforms exerts a profound influence on public discourse regarding energy and other critical matters, including climate change. Furthermore, we observe that the resulting communities exhibit distinct structural properties and communication patterns, with some clusters showing lower internal engagement, which may be indicative of fragmentation dynamics in online conversations. These emergent clusters, characterized by their shared communication styles, form relatively compact communities where the exchange of information is infrequent compared to larger networks and is usually confined to accounts created for specific commercial objectives. We emphasize that our analysis focuses on a structurally coherent connected component emerging from a curated set of energy-related seed accounts, rather than attempting to reconstruct the entirety of the energy discourse on Twitter. Consequently, peripheral or weakly connected communities may be underrepresented. Additionally, by combining machine-learning-based node classification with graph-based centrality measures, we are able to characterize the roles of structurally central actors within these niche segments and analyze the connectivity patterns that define their positions. This method provides novel insights into how corporate communication unfolds on social media, offering a refreshed perspective on professional networking. Ultimately, our findings highlight the ways in which companies within the energy sector take advantage of Twitter to coordinate their initiatives, with key institutions serving as central nodes in maintaining the organization of these networks. Full article

We assessed the current and possible future predicted distributions of the Mexican narrow-mouthed toad, Amphibia, Microhylidae Hypopachus variolosus (Cope, 1866) across its range to evaluate vulnerability under global change. (2) Methods: We integrated 481 validated occurrence records across the species’ distribution range, including 120 records from Mexico, with bioclimatic and land-cover predictors to build ensemble ecological niche models. We additionally incorporated human footprint metrics to evaluate anthropogenic pressure and projected future habitat suitability under climate and land-use change scenarios. (3) Results: Models showed high performance (TSS > 0.80; AUC > 0.90), identifying temperature and precipitation extremes as main drivers. Suitable habitats extended across both coasts and revealed novel areas in central Mexico. The most suitable habitat occurred under low human pressure, although localized impacts were detected. Deforestation in the Yucatán Peninsula reduced tree cover despite high climatic suitability. Future projections for 2050 under RCP 8.5 indicated marked reductions in modeled high-suitability areas, particularly in central Mexico. (4) Conclusions: These findings indicate high vulnerability to climate and land-use change and support updating distribution limits, incorporating new regions into conservation planning, and reassessing threat status to promote long-term persistence. Full article

A predictive gate-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA) of plasma-assisted ammonia synthesis at TRL 4 is presented according to ISO 14040/44 standards. General plasma-assisted synthesis was evaluated through a mini-review‚ sensitivity analysis‚ and predictive LCA. The specific DBD needle-to-plate configuration LCA is performed using previously published experimental data. Two distinct scenarios were investigated. In the literature-based baseline scenario derived from sensitivity analysis, electricity consumption was 533 kWh/kg NH₃, giving a carbon footprint of 26.65–639.60 kg CO₂-eq/kg NH₃; electricity contributed 98.5% of total emissions, and impacts remained about 2.05 times higher than conventional Haber–Bosch. In contrast, the experimental DBD case study required 63,450 kWh/kg NH₃, showing reactor efficiency as the dominant driver of environmental performance. The BCS (≈1.39 kWh/kg NH₃) suggests that optimized plasma systems could potentially surpass conventional ammonia synthesis in energy efficiency. The environmental performance of plasma-assisted ammonia synthesis is affected by NH₃, NO_x, N₂O, and hydrogen emissions due to impacts on climate, air quality, water systems, and biodiversity. Future improvements may come from reactor and electrode optimization, catalyst integration, alternative plasma sources, and better process and heat integration, although deployment will likely depend on major efficiency gains and may be limited to niche decentralized applications. Full article

Anthropogenic disturbances and climate warming threaten the rare paleoendemic species Tetracentron sinense. To identify the divers of its latitudinal adaptation, we integrated functional trait differentiation, environmental filtering, and phylogenetic conservatism. We measured 35 functional traits (leaf morphology, nutrient stoichiometry, stomatal traits, whole-plant architecture) across four natural populations spanning the species’ latitudinal range: BMXS (Baima Snow Mountain), DFD (Dafengding), FP (Foping), LGS (Leigong Mountain). Using correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and phylogenetic community metrics, we found that T. sinense dominated all communities. Populations exhibited divergent strategies: DFD expanded leaf area for light capture under high rainfall and shaded conditions; FP increased height and crown width to compete for light; LGS enhanced nutrient-use efficiency under phosphorus limitation; BMXS promoted phosphorus uptake under nitrogen limitation (N/P < 14). Trait variation correlated significantly with elevation, solar radiation, and temperature. PCA explained 90.44% of total variance, and standardized effect size (SES) values for phylogenetic signals range from −2.031 to 1.973; Phylogenetic signals were stronger in co-occurring taxa than in T. sinense. T. sinense populations in BMXS and FP are structured by competitive exclusion, while those in LGS and DFD by habitat filtering. We conclude that T. sinense achieves latitudinal adaptation by overcoming phylogenetic niche conservatism through phenotypic plasticity. While leaf economic traits remain evolutionarily conserved and niches in glacial refugium are relatively stable, populations adjust trait syndromes via metabolic shifts and structural trade-offs in response to heterogeneous environmental filters. Identifying these adaptive strategies can guide seed sourcing for restoration efforts under climate change. Full article

The Iranian Ground Jay (Podoces pleskei) is the endemic bird species inhabiting the deserts and steppes of Iran, a region experiencing severe ecological disturbances like habitat loss and fragmentation of preferred habitat. Despite its remarkable adaptation to arid environments, Iranian Ground Jay exhibits strong habitat specialization, making it both ecologically resilient and vulnerable—an intriguing case for evaluating how the species responds to climate-driven habitat shifts. The present study aims to assess the current and future distribution of Iranian Ground Jay under climatic change using MaxEnt incorporating presence records and bioclimatic variables. We modeled the species’ potential distribution under two climate models (HadGEM3-GC31-LL and MIROC6) for 2070. Then, using the predicted habitats, we estimated the coverage of protected areas in Iran. Among climatic variables, we predicted that the annual precipitation (bio12), precipitation of driest quarter (bio17), and temperature seasonality (bio4) significantly influenced the distribution of Iranian Ground Jays. The highly suitable distributions of the species are concentrated in Eastern, Southeastern, and Central Iran. Our results indicated that a vast range of potential distribution is located outside protected areas, emphasizing the importance of conservation efforts. Our investigation shed lighted the consequences of global warming, where the highly suitable habitat is expected to shift under predicted climatic changes, resulting in a reduction in suitable habitat extent projected for the future. Based on these insights, it becomes imperative to reassess current conservation policy and devise an action plan specifically tailored for the Iranian Ground Jay, particularly emphasizing the protection of its core habitats within anthropogenically altered landscapes and non-protected regions. Full article

Dasyhippus barbipes (Fischer von Waldheim, 1846) is an early dominant grasshopper in Chinese grasslands, and understanding its climatic niche is important for monitoring and early warning. Based on nationwide field surveys conducted from 2019 to 2024, 732 filtered occurrence records were used with an optimized MaxEnt model parameters (rm = 1.5, fc = LQ) to predict the current and future suitable habitat of D. barbipes in China. The model performed well (mean AUC = 0.962, mean TSS = 0.924). The mean temperature of the coldest quarter and precipitation seasonality were the most important limiting variables, while elevation and human footprint also contributed to habitat suitability. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitat is concentrated mainly in central and eastern Inner Mongolia, with additional suitable areas in the eastern Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang and the central Qilian Mountains of Gansu; the highly suitable habitat covers 6.57 × 10⁴ km². Under all future climate scenarios, suitable habitat is projected to shift northward, and stable areas are mainly located in eastern Inner Mongolia. Habitat changes become more pronounced by the 2090s. These results improve understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of D. barbipes under climate change and provide a basis for future monitoring and management. Full article

Dairy goat farming is a niche but relevant livestock system in alpine regions, yet its economic viability and environmental performance remain poorly quantified. This study assessed the relationship between profitability and environmental impacts in dairy goat farms in South Tyrol (Northern Italy). Data were collected from ten alpine dairy goat farms through on-farm interviews and accounting records and exploratorily analyzed using full-cost accounting and life cycle assessment (LCA). Given the small and purposive sample, all findings should be interpreted as preliminary and hypothesis-generating rather than statistically representative. Environmental impacts were evaluated from cradle to farm gate using two functional units: 1 kg of fat- and protein-corrected milk (FPCM) and 1 ha of agricultural land. Farm income per kg FPCM was highly variable, ranging from −€1.10 to €2.50, and depended strongly on herd size and subsidies. Average global warming potential was 2.96 ± 1.18 kg CO₂ eq per kg FPCM, but farm rankings changed when impacts were expressed per hectare. Pearson correlation and linear regression analyses showed a significant positive relationship between income and greenhouse gas emissions (r = 0.80, p < 0.05), indicating a trade-off between economic and environmental performance. Enteric methane and energy use were the main contributors to climate impacts. Improving productivity per animal rather than expanding herd size appears to be the most promising strategy to enhance profitability while limiting environmental burdens. Full article

Global climate change profoundly impacts the geographical distribution patterns and evolutionary dynamics of plants. As a vital ornamental and ecological shrub native to the temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere, the wild germplasm resources of Weigela florida are facing dual threats from habitat fragmentation and climate warming. To elucidate the biogeographical mechanisms underlying the species’ responses to climate change and to formulate scientific conservation strategies, this study simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics of suitable habitats for W. florida across key historical periods spanning the Late Pliocene (~3.3 million years ago), Quaternary (~2.58 million years ago), the current period, and future climate scenarios using an optimized Maximum Entropy ecological niche model, and further tracked the migration trajectories of its spatial centroids. The results indicate that precipitation conditions, dry-season temperatures, and temperature seasonality are the dominant environmental factors limiting the distribution of wild W. florida. During the glacial–interglacial cycles, the area of its suitable habitat fluctuated significantly. Notably, the Korean Peninsula and the southern part of Northeast China maintained high habitat suitability across all geological historical periods, serving as long-term stable Quaternary glacial refugia for the species. Under various future climate scenarios, the total suitable habitat area of W. florida generally exhibits a shrinking trend, with habitat loss primarily concentrated at the western and southern edges of its distribution range. In the future, its spatial centroid shows a significant tendency to migrate towards higher latitudes (northeastward) to track suitable climatic niches. This study clarifies the macroscopic driving mechanisms behind the habitat dynamics of wild W. florida, providing critical spatial planning guidance for the refined evaluation and long-term sustainable utilization of its germplasm resources. Full article

(1) Background: The rapid spatial expansion of the ruderal weed Chenopodium hybridum L. poses a potential challenge to agricultural production and regional ecosystems in China. However, the spatial evolution characteristics of its potential geographic distribution remain unclear under the compound scenarios of global warming and intensified human activities. (2) Methods: Utilizing an optimized MaxEnt model (regularization multiplier (RM) = 0.5, feature combination (FC) = LQ), this study integrated bioclimatic, topographic, soil, and Human Footprint (Hfp) data to predict the potential suitable habitats of C. hybridum in China under current conditions and four future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) for the 2050s and 2070s. Additionally, spatial turnover rate and centroid migration analyses were incorporated to elucidate its spatiotemporal dynamics. (3) Results: The results indicate that the optimized model exhibited robust predictive performance (Area Under the Curve (AUC) = 0.928). The Human Footprint (Hfp) was the environmental factor most prominently associated with the macro-spatial distribution of C. hybridum, with a relative contribution of 58.4%—significantly higher than any single natural geographic factor. Currently, potential suitable habitats are primarily concentrated in North, Central, and Southwest China, totaling approximately 205.59 × 10⁴ km². Under future climate scenarios, the highly suitable core habitats exhibit a consistent contraction trend, whereas the marginal suitable habitats shift spatially toward the arid inland regions of the northwest and the high-altitude areas of the southwest. By the 2070s under the higher-emission scenario (SSP585), the spatial turnover rate reaches a peak value (16.23%), and the distributional centroids of the potential suitable habitats exhibit localized directional shifts. (4) Conclusions: The spatial expansion trajectory of C. hybridum exhibits a high degree of spatial congruence with human activity corridors, reflecting a distinct macro-ecological niche spatial response characterized by shifts toward higher latitudes and elevations. It must be emphasized that the projections of this study reflect potential habitat suitability rather than definitive future actual distributions. The three-tier spatial management framework proposed herein—encompassing transport regulation, ecological management in core areas, and early warning in marginal zones—can serve as a scientific basis for the early monitoring and spatial management of this species under climate change. Full article

Climate change threatens global biodiversity, with amphibians from climatically stable and geographically restricted ecosystems such as Mexico’s montane cloud forest (CF) being particularly vulnerable. This study evaluated the potential impacts of climate scenarios on the distribution and richness of 53 endemic anuran species. We used ecological niche models (MaxEnt) to project current and future distributions (year 2100) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and assessed species representativeness within federal Protected Natural Areas (PNAs). The results indicate that 71.7% of species already fall into an IUCN threat category. Widespread habitat contraction is observed under the climate projections, with average losses of 40.3% (SSP2-4.5) and 45.5% (SSP5-8.5). Twelve species (22.6%) could lose over 90% of their current distribution, suggesting a high risk of functional extinction. Only 15.3% of occurrence records currently fall within PNAs, and key reserves such as Los Tuxtlas and La Sepultura are projected to experience significant richness declines. These patterns are consistent with an “escalator to extinction” process driven by altitudinal compression of climatic niches. Adaptive conservation strategies are urgently needed, including the identification of climate microrefugia and the establishment of connectivity corridors to enhance the long-term persistence of endemic anurans under climate change. Full article

Gelsemium elegans is a traditionally utilized medicinal plant in China, renowned for its well-documented therapeutic properties and substantial economic potential. The primary bioactive components in this plant are indole alkaloids. It is used clinically to treat conditions including rheumatoid arthritis, neuropathic pain, and some cancers. Additionally, the whole plant can be processed into livestock feed. Climate change is anticipated to substantially impact the future suitable habitat of this species. Utilizing the Biomod2 ensemble model and 18 environmental variables (bio01, bio03, bio04, bio05, bio06, bio09, bio11, bio17, hf, elev, aspect, slope, gm_lc, gm_ve, ph_water, usda, d1_swr, annual_mean_uv-b) this study projected the geographical distribution of G. elegans under current and future climate scenarios; the periods of the 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s were analyzed using SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Current ecological niche modeling predicts that G. elegans is predominantly distributed in southern China, with its climatically and edaphically most suitable habitats concentrated in Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and Hainan provinces. Across the three future time periods under various scenarios, the overall extent of suitable habitat is projected to increase, with a northward expansion of the suitable distribution range. Key environmental factors shaping the distribution of G. elegans include Isothermality (bio03), Max Temperature of Warmest Month (bio05), Min Temperature of Coldest Month (bio06), Precipitation of Driest Quarter (bio17), and Annual Average UV Radiation. The study aims to develop a scientifically grounded theoretical framework to support the conservation-oriented management and climate-resilient utilization of G. elegans resources under ongoing climate change. Full article

Cotton is a vital cash crop that underpins regional agricultural systems and the global textile supply chain. However, climate change and increasing human activity are reshaping the spatial distribution of areas suitable for cotton cultivation, with the potential impacts being particularly pronounced in arid and semi-arid regions. This study integrated high-resolution cotton distribution data, environmental variables and human activities and employed ensemble model and niche analysis methods to systematically assess cotton suitability in Xinjiang under current and future climate scenarios. The results indicate that the ensemble models demonstrate high predictive performance, with both model types (Model 1: Environmental; Model 2: Environmental and human activity) achieving AUC values exceeding 0.97 and TSS values exceeding 0.84. Under current climatic conditions, suitable cotton-growing areas are primarily distributed on both sides of the Tianshan Mountains, and the inclusion of human activity factors results in a 13.71% reduction in suitable area. Moreover, Future climate change is projected to result in an increase in its suitable range of between 28.25% and 94.10%, with the most significant expansion occurring under the high-emissions scenario. MESS analysis indicates that the newly identified suitable areas in the future bear a high degree of similarity to current environmental conditions, whilst MOD analysis further highlights that temperature and precipitation are the key drivers of environmental variation. Additionally, Xinjiang cotton will retain a high degree of ecological niche under future climatic conditions. These findings provide important scientific evidence for optimizing the spatial distribution of cotton cultivation in Xinjiang and for climate-adaptive agricultural management. Full article

In sociotechnical transitions, landscape disruptions, such as climate change, exert pressure on incumbent regimes and can trigger the emergence of niche innovations. Renewable energy communities represent one such innovation, increasingly central to European energy policy. This paper applies a critical realist method to examine the energy community niche in Portugal, drawing on a content analysis of the scientific literature and recent Horizon Europe research projects involving Portuguese actors. The analysis reveals three distinct research pathways structuring knowledge production in this niche—technology-driven, socio-governance-oriented, and infrastructure-focused. It also reveals a systemic R&D bias: incumbent actors occupy dual positions—simultaneously at the regime level and within the niche—playing central roles in learning and network formation while exhibiting limited capacity to translate innovation into institutional change and large-scale diffusion. Building on these critical realist findings, we then apply the Strategic Niche Management framework as an evaluative lens, revealing structural misalignments between components of the sociotechnical system. Together, these two analytical steps offer a novel reading of the Portuguese energy community niche, contributing to the theoretical debate on incumbent roles in transition dynamics and identifying concrete shortcomings for future R&D agenda-setting. Full article

Climate change profoundly impacts insect distribution and ecological functions. For the predatory robber flies Microstylum dux and M. oberthurii (Diptera: Asilidae), clarifying their distribution and climatic responses is vital for natural enemy conservation and biological control. Using a parameter-optimized biomod2 ensemble model, we predicted their potential distributions under current and future climates, and analyzed key variables, centroid shifts, and niche dynamics. Current suitable habitats concentrate in southeast China and are scarce in the northwest. Future total suitable area remains stable but structurally reorganizes, with highly suitable habitats expanding and moderately suitable ones contracting. Key drivers are precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19) and mean diurnal range (bio2). Habitat centroids migrate westward or southwestward with fluctuating range expansion. M. dux is a niche specialist (niche width = 0.257), while M. oberthurii is a generalist (niche width = 0.539). Their niche overlap shows non-linear “divergence-convergence-divergence” dynamics. This study supports natural enemy conservation and biological control strategy formulation. Full article