Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Medicinal Plant Gelsemium elegans in China Under Climate Change

Gelsemium elegans is a traditionally utilized medicinal plant in China, renowned for its well-documented therapeutic properties and substantial economic potential. The primary bioactive components in this plant are indole alkaloids. It is used clinically to treat conditions including rheumatoid arthritis, neuropathic pain, and some cancers. Additionally, the whole plant can be processed into livestock feed. Climate change is anticipated to substantially impact the future suitable habitat of this species. Utilizing the Biomod2 ensemble model and 18 environmental variables (bio01, bio03, bio04, bio05, bio06, bio09, bio11, bio17, hf, elev, aspect, slope, gm_lc, gm_ve, ph_water, usda, d1_swr, annual_mean_uv-b) this study projected the geographical distribution of G. elegans under current and future climate scenarios; the periods of the 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s were analyzed using SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Current ecological niche modeling predicts that G. elegans is predominantly distributed in southern China, with its climatically and edaphically most suitable habitats concentrated in Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and Hainan provinces. Across the three future time periods under various scenarios, the overall extent of suitable habitat is projected to increase, with a northward expansion of the suitable distribution range. Key environmental factors shaping the distribution of G. elegans include Isothermality (bio03), Max Temperature of Warmest Month (bio05), Min Temperature of Coldest Month (bio06), Precipitation of Driest Quarter (bio17), and Annual Average UV Radiation. The study aims to develop a scientifically grounded theoretical framework to support the conservation-oriented management and climate-resilient utilization of G. elegans resources under ongoing climate change.