Search Results (180)

Frequent light-to-moderate rainfall may influence metro demand differently across rainfall stages and station ridership rhythms. Using automatic fare collection data from 80 Hangzhou Metro stations and station-matched hourly meteorological observations, this study examines weekday entry-ridership associations with rainfall onset, continuation, and the first post-rain hour. Three station ridership-rhythm types were identified from non-rain weekday entry–exit profiles: destination-oriented, balanced bidirectional, and origin-oriented. A Bayesian hierarchical negative binomial model estimated stage-specific associations while accounting for station-hour baseline ridership, hourly temperature, peak periods, and station- and date-level heterogeneity. During off-peak periods, rainfall onset and continuation were associated with 4.95% and 6.82% reductions in expected entry ridership at balanced bidirectional stations. Continuation associations were more negative in the primary model, but this difference was substantially attenuated after accounting for cumulative precipitation and elapsed episode duration. Origin-oriented stations generally showed more negative onset and continuation associations, while negative first-post-rain associations were observed across all three station types. These findings demonstrate that routine rainfall responses vary across both event stages and station ridership rhythms, supporting more stage-specific and station-sensitive passenger-flow monitoring. Full article

Plant growth-promoting bacteria (PGPB) are increasingly deployed as biofertilizers, yet the link between an inoculant’s genomic potential and its realized effect on the plant is rarely assessed within an integrative framework that jointly captures the rhizosphere microbiome, plant phenotype, and strain genome. Two Bacillus strains—B. halotolerans 1453 and B. pumilus 630—were applied to wheat and soybean in a factorial pot experiment (2 strains × 2 application methods × 3 frequencies + control, 3–4 replicates). Rhizosphere samples (n = 67 after filtering) were profiled by 16S rRNA sequencing with PICRUSt2 functional prediction and compositional validation (Aitchison PERMANOVA, ALDEx2, ANCOM-BC2). The PGPB gene repertoire was characterized by genome mining (481 marker genes, 14 categories). Wheat phenotype (six traits) and soybean height were analyzed with models appropriate for count data (Negative Binomial and binomial GLMs) for treatment-vs.-control comparisons, and with factorial ANOVA for decomposition into main effects and interactions. Crop identity was the dominant factor shaping both microbiome structure and function (PERMANOVA R² = 14.7% taxonomically and R² = 7.8% functionally, both p < 0.001), with biologically meaningful taxonomic differences between wheat and soybean; strain, application count and method had no significant effect on community composition (R² < 4% each), and co-occurrence networks showed no reliable differences between crops once read depth and sample size were controlled for. Despite this neutrality at the microbiome level, inoculation significantly increased wheat spike count (NB-GLM, all 12 treatments vs. control, padj 0.0002–0.031), ear weight, and stem count, with application count the strongest source of variability and a pronounced strain × application count. Strain 1453 outperformed 630 in spike count (+23.1%, p = 0.012) and ear weight (+20.4%, p = 0.023); we hypothesize that this may be related to its more complete DNRA pathway (narGHI + nirB-nirD) and biocontrol genes (bacE, srfAA). Strain 630 produced a less pronounced effect than strain 1453 but was subject to smaller fluctuations across replicates (CV ≈ 16–21% vs. ≈24–26% for 1453), which may reflect better resilience to environmental fluctuations, possibly due to its confirmed rsbV/rsbW stress-tolerance regulon. Rhizosphere microbiome composition differed clearly by crop (wheat vs. soybean) but showed no detectable response to strain, application method, or application count. Despite this lack of a microbiome signal, inoculation significantly increased wheat spike count and ear weight, with the magnitude and stability of this effect differing by strain. We hypothesize that this strain-dependent difference relates to underlying genomic differences—particularly in nitrogen metabolism (DNRA pathway) and stress-tolerance genes—though this link has not been tested directly and remains a hypothesis for future work. Full article

Insect-proof nets provide a non-chemical alternative within integrated pest management (IPM), but their effectiveness against thrips may depend on crop species, season, mesh size, and treatment-associated microclimate conditions. We compared an uncovered and unframed control (CK) and 40-, 60-, and 80-mesh insect-proof nets on thrip abundance in eggplant and potato across two planting seasons in a single-span plastic greenhouse. Weekly plot-level thrip surveys were conducted using a five-point sampling method. Thrips were not identified to species, and the response variable therefore represented total thrip abundance. Treatment effects were estimated with negative binomial (NB1) generalized linear mixed models incorporating a random intercept for plot and an offset for sampling effort; microclimate variables were analyzed with linear mixed models, and exploratory analyses additionally adjusted the NB1 model for measured microclimate covariates to examine whether accounting for these variables altered the estimated net-cage treatment associations. Net-cage treatments generally reduced thrip abundance relative to the control, but the magnitude and consistency of suppression varied markedly with crop and season. The 60-mesh net showed the most consistent direction of suppression, with estimated reductions ranging from 36.0% to 44.4% across the four crop–season contexts; this suppression was statistically supported in both eggplant contexts, but only marginal in the two potato contexts, and this directional consistency did not imply universal superiority in all contexts. The 80-mesh net produced stronger suppression in some cases but was inconsistent, with no detectable suppression in eggplant during the second season. Treatment-related differences in 7-day temperature and relative humidity were generally statistically uncertain, whereas illuminance showed some treatment-associated variation. Adjustment for the measured microclimate covariates did not consistently attenuate the estimated treatment associations, indicating that the measured variables did not provide a simple statistical explanation for the observed context-dependent pattern. Overall, the 60-mesh treatment showed the most consistent estimated suppressive direction under the tested conditions, whereas increasing nominal mesh count did not produce a simple monotonic increase in suppression. The microclimate-adjusted analysis was exploratory and did not provide a causal decomposition of net-cage effects. Full article

Centralized hot water systems in university dormitories can provide significant energy flexibility through demand response (DR). Thus far, however, existing studies have mainly focused on system-level optimization and have failed to provide a quantitative framework that accounts for individual users’ DR participation behavior and the associated uncertainty. In this paper, we develop a data-driven approach to evaluate demand-side flexibility and quantify the uncertainty that arises as a result of user participation. A clustering-based stochastic load prediction model is proposed and validated using real operational data, serving as the baseline for DR load shifting. Four DR strategies for students are designed based on time-of-use pricing and/or academic credit incentives. A survey of nearly 1000 students is used to calibrate participation probabilities, while a binomial distribution model characterizes the uncertainty of user participation, allowing us to derive the probability distribution and expected value of the system’s flexibility potential. Compared with the no-DR baseline, the combined price–credit incentive yields the highest flexibility, achieving a peak-shaving rate of 62.66% and thus significantly outperforming the price-only strategy. Notably, the academic credit incentive alone increases students’ willingness to participate more effectively than price signals. Furthermore, when the number of participating users exceeds 648, the fluctuation range of the estimated flexibility potential falls below 10.5%, enabling stable flexibility evaluation with a moderately large user sample. Full article

As artificial intelligence and digital human technologies become increasingly integrated into livestream commerce, AI anchors are becoming important marketing agents. Yet prior research has focused primarily on their visual characteristics, leaving dynamic vocal cues largely unexplored. Drawing on social response theory and perceived authenticity research, this study examines the nonlinear association between AI anchor pitch variability and consumer engagement, together with a proposed psychological pathway and boundary condition. Study 1 analyzes 4322 product-presentation segments nested within 330 AI-anchored livestreams and 85 independent accounts on Douyin. Negative binomial models, formal boundary-slope tests, and additional specifications using account and livestream-session fixed effects, a correlated-random-effects decomposition, and viewer-minutes exposure provide robust evidence of an inverted U-shaped association between pitch variability and real-time danmaku engagement. Evidence concerning appearance-realism moderation is conditional and specification-sensitive across alternative pitch operationalizations, exposure definitions, and within-account specifications. Study 2 uses a preregistered multi-stimulus mixed design with four AI anchors, four products, and three between-participants pitch-variability conditions. Correctly scaled planned contrasts show that moderate pitch variability produced greater perceived authenticity and engagement intentions than the average of the two endpoint conditions. A 2-1-1 multilevel analysis yielded an indirect-effect pattern consistent with the proposed role of perceived authenticity. Models allowing treatment effects to vary across the 16 included anchor-product combinations showed a positive average moderate-pitch advantage, although its magnitude varied across stimuli. These findings extend livestream-commerce research from human streamers to AI-mediated communication while indicating that appearance-realism moderation, stimulus-level generalization, and causal mediation require further replication. Full article

Deadwood is widely recognized as an important structural component of forest ecosystems, yet its relationship with natural regeneration remains highly context-dependent, particularly in semi-arid forests. This study evaluated associations of plot-scale downed deadwood volume, litter depth, and stand basal area with Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) seedling and sapling abundance in central Türkiye. Field measurements were conducted in 60 circular plots distributed across five naturally regenerated stands. Relationships were explored using Spearman rank correlations and evaluated using four unified zero-inflated negative binomial generalized linear mixed models (ZINB-GLMMs) that accounted for stand differences and paired seedling–sapling observations within plots. Downed deadwood was spatially heterogeneous and dominated by coarse woody debris, whereas fine woody debris contributed little to the total volume. Neither coarse woody debris, fine woody debris, total downed deadwood volume, nor basal area was significantly correlated with seedling or sapling abundance. In a supplementary unadjusted comparison, regeneration abundance did not differ between plots with and without deadwood (Wilcoxon tests, p > 0.05). Spearman correlations showed opposite associations between litter depth and seedlings (ρ = −0.312, p = 0.015) and saplings (ρ = 0.260, p = 0.045). However, AICc model comparison favored the baseline model containing the regeneration stage and stand identity (AICc = 517.26, Akaike weight = 0.672), and the unified model did not detect a significant regeneration stage × litter depth interaction (β = 0.138, p = 0.666). These findings indicate that contrasting bivariate litter-depth associations were not confirmed as a robust stage-dependent response after accounting for stand effects, zero inflation, and within-plot pairing. At the plot scale, total deadwood volume alone did not explain Scots pine regeneration abundance in the studied semi-arid forests. Full article

Whale shark aggregations in tropical coastal systems are linked to environmental variability and prey dynamics, yet the drivers of surface sightings remain poorly understood. In Nosy Be, Madagascar, a seasonal aggregation of immature whale sharks occurs within a productive coastal ecosystem. This study investigated the relationship between daily environmental conditions and whale shark surface sighting probability while accounting for heterogeneous sampling effort. Boat-based survey data collected from 2019 to 2025 were aggregated by sampling day, and daily whale shark surface sighting probability was analysed using a bias-reduced grouped binomial Generalized Linear Model. Environmental covariates included sea surface temperature, sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration, cloud cover, wind speed, and precipitation, while El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability was assessed as an interannual climatic descriptor. Using data from 103 recorded whale shark surface sightings, chlorophyll-a emerged as the strongest predictor, showing a positive association with daily sighting probability, whereas other environmental variables exhibited weaker and inconsistent effects. These findings suggest that whale shark surface sightings in Nosy Be are primarily associated with prey aggregation processes driven by local productivity rather than with direct responses to local physical environmental conditions. By integrating environmental variability and sampling effort into ecological models, this study provides insights into whale shark habitat use and supports ecosystem-based management of sustainable whale shark tourism in tropical coastal ecosystems. Full article

Climatic drought shapes wildfire regimes, yet the multi-timescale lagged responses of high-intensity wildfires to drought and their spatial heterogeneity remain unclear in subtropical monsoon forests. We integrated long-term MODIS satellite observations and monthly drought metrics (SPEI, VPD, VAP, and precipitation) across subtropical China during 2005–2024. We used Spearman rank correlation to identify multi-scale drought–wildfire relationships and constructed zero-inflated negative binomial generalized linear mixed models (ZINB-GLMM) to quantify multi-temporal drought, vegetation, and anthropogenic effects. Our results showed that 64.7% of 0.5° grid cells experienced high-intensity wildfires, with 77.8% of events occurring in the cold dry season (November–March). Concurrent dry conditions (low SPEI, VAP, precipitation) generally increased fire susceptibility, while atmospheric aridity (high VPD) showed spatially dipolar effects. The 1–3-month lagged model had the highest explanatory power (R² = 0.54), identifying antecedent moisture deficit as the dominant driver. Dense vegetation amplified drought–fire synergies, especially in southeastern and southwestern China. Model predictive performance was strong overall, but lower accuracy in northern areas suggests additional local factors modulate wildfire risk there. This study provides a satellite-based spatiotemporal modeling framework that may serve as a methodological reference for ecological informatics-based wildfire early warning and climate-adaptive management in subtropical and analogous monsoon regions. Full article

Background: Excess adiposity has been associated with endocrine and metabolic alterations that may affect ovarian physiology and outcomes in assisted reproductive technology (ART). Objectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether body mass index (BMI) was independently associated with ovarian follicular response in women undergoing assisted reproductive procedures. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted including 259 women aged 18 to 43 years. Analyses included nutritional status, diet quality, and follicular response. Associations were analyzed using chi-square and Kruskal–Wallis tests and negative binomial regression adjusted for age and indication. Results: Mean age was 32.8 ± 6.3 years, and mean BMI was 24.7 ± 3.2 kg/m². Diet quality was not associated with follicle number or morphological quality. Overall, 47.5% of participants had normal weight, 42.9% were overweight, and 6.9% had class I obesity. Follicular yield differed across BMI categories in unadjusted analyses (p = 0.017), but BMI was not independently associated with follicle count after adjustment (IRR = 1.010; 95% CI: 0.983–1.036; p = 0.488). Age remained the only independent predictor, with each additional year associated with a 5.9% reduction in expected follicle count (IRR = 0.941; 95% CI: 0.920–0.963; p < 0.001). Conclusions: BMI was not independently associated with follicular yield after adjustment, whereas age remained the principal determinant of ovarian response. These findings should be confirmed in prospective studies incorporating ovarian reserve markers and stimulation-related variables. Full article

Background: Optimising medication for Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is often hindered by the lack of practical physiological indicators that can inform treatment effects. Electrooculography (EOG) has been suggested as a low-burden marker of neurophysiological processes relevant to ADHD, but its responsiveness to medication within routine clinical settings is not well established. Methods: We analysed anonymised clinical records from adults with ADHD receiving stable, ongoing medication who underwent closed-eye EOG recordings immediately before and after taking their scheduled dose during standard consultations. Recordings were obtained using clinical EEG equipment. Heart rate and blood pressure, measured after each EOG session, were included as contextual indices of physiological state. Pre–post changes were assessed using paired t-tests and binomial tests, with effect sizes and confidence intervals reported for the main pre–post comparisons, with Pearson correlations used to evaluate associations between EOG and cardiovascular measures. Results: Both mean and peak EOG power showed consistent within-session reductions, with the majority of individuals exhibiting a decrease across measures. Cardiovascular parameters showed no systematic pre–post change, and differences in cardiovascular measures did not correlate with changes in EOG activity. Conclusions: Closed-eye EOG showed systematic within-session modulation in adults with ADHD on stable treatment. These preliminary findings suggest that EOG is sensitive to short-latency physiological changes occurring within a clinical timeframe. However, the present design does not establish pharmacological specificity, and further controlled studies are needed to determine whether such changes are specifically medication related and whether they have relevance for treatment monitoring and titration. Full article

Seed longevity plays a crucial role in the persistence of plant populations, particularly in short-lived species inhabiting unpredictable environments. However, empirical data on long-term seed viability remain scarce, especially for rare and poorly known taxa. Astragalus contortuplicatus is a threatened annual species of periodically flooded habitats, characterized by sporadic occurrence and limited ecological knowledge; based on its annual life cycle and the temporal unpredictability of its habitat, its long-term population persistence is likely facilitated by persistent seed banks. In a previous study, we demonstrated that seeds of this species stored in herbarium collections can retain the ability to germinate for more than a century. Here, we reassess seed germination capacity after an additional 11.5–12 years of dry storage, using the same germination protocol, and analyse temporal changes based on repeated measurements of the same herbarium specimens. Germination data from 2014 and 2026 were evaluated using binomial models, and the relationship between seed age and germination capacity was examined using linear and non-linear approaches. Paired analyses revealed a significant overall decline in germination probability over time, although responses varied among specimens. Despite this decline, seeds from the oldest available sample (collected in 1883) still retained the ability to germinate, with 20% germination after approximately 142.5 years of storage. Across the full dataset, seed age had a significant negative effect on germination, and non-linear models provided a better fit than simple linear regression, indicating that the loss of germination capacity does not follow a strictly linear pattern. Our results confirm the exceptional longevity of seeds in this rare species while also demonstrating that germination capacity declines over time under continued dry storage. These findings are consistent with the ecological expectation that long-lived, dormant seeds may contribute to population persistence in unpredictable habitats, while underlining the potential of herbarium collections as valuable resources for the conservation and possible restoration of threatened plant species. Notably, seeds in the oldest sample retained the ability to germinate, emphasizing the exceptional longevity of seeds in this species. Full article

Against the backdrop of geopolitical restructuring and rapid digital transformation, foreign investment security reviews in host countries have become an increasingly important institutional constraint on cross-border business activities. From a broader organizational perspective, such regulatory mechanisms shape the external environment in which emerging market multinational enterprises (EMNEs) make international investment decisions and conduct cross-border acquisitions. This paper explores the moderating effects of EMNE network and internal agency problems on the duration of reverse cross-border M&A (CBMA) under host country security reviews. Utilizing a Negative Binomial regression model, we empirically analyze 503 reverse CBMAs undertaken by Chinese firms in developed economies from 2003 to 2022. The findings reveal that host country security reviews significantly prolong M&A duration. Notably, business group affiliation weakens this positive relationship, whereas political networking strengthens it. Regarding internal governance factors, Type I agency problems reinforce the delaying effect of foreign investment security reviews, while Type II agency problems weaken it. This study provides practical implications for managers and policymakers seeking to improve firms’ responses to increasingly complex regulatory environments. Full article

We propose a Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) framework for count outcomes with dynamic spatiotemporal dependence. The proposed model, termed Negative Binomial BKMR with spatiotemporal effects (NB-BKMR), integrates (i) a negative binomial likelihood to accommodate overdispersion, (ii) a kernel-based exposure–response surface for complex mixtures, (iii) hierarchical group-wise variable selection and (iv) a dynamic spatiotemporal random effect structure based on a Leroux conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior evolving over time. Posterior inference is conducted in a fully Bayesian framework using Polya-Gamma data augmentation. Through simulation studies, under varying nonlinear exposure–response functions, correlation structures, and spatiotemporal dependence patterns, we show that NB-BKMR yields well-calibrated uncertainty quantification and robust identification of dominant mixture drivers, even when exposures are highly correlated. An application to the U.S. state-level traffic fatality counts (1982–1988) illustrates how the model uncovers nonlinear effects and interactions among socioeconomic and behavioral predictors while improving predictive performance relative to generalized additive models with spatiotemporal smooths. This work extends existing BKMR methodology by unifying mixture modeling, count outcomes, and dynamic spatial dependence in a single coherent framework, with particular relevance for areal public health surveillance data. Full article

Otters spend a considerable amount of time vocalizing within zoos and other captive settings. Although associations between these vocalizations and social activity have been investigated prior, it is not always clear how this is reflected in interactions with people under typical zoo conditions, including interactions with zoo visitors and staff. In addition, the implications for zoo welfare and their relation to vocalizing are also not clear, warranting greater investigation to identify potential future welfare metrics for otter species. We examined zoo Asian small-clawed otter vocalizations and general activity in the presence of people, including both visitors and staff. Our focus was on measuring vocalizations as a binomial response (yes/no) in relation to two variables: (a) people, and (b) time. In addition, we also measured differences in vocalizations during sessions, when visitors were present with or without staff. Finally, we measured general otter activity during sessions when 50% or more of the observation intervals had people present (More People), as opposed to sessions where less than 50% of all intervals had a person present (Less People). Overall, otters were statistically more active and less out of sight when more people were present; a weak to moderate correlation was observed between vocalizations and people, a weak correlation was observed between vocalizations and time, and there was no statistically significant difference in vocalizations of the otters in the presence of visitors regardless of staff presence. These results suggest that the measured variables showed no evidence of an overtly negative visitor effect for the otters and may have produced a potentially enriching effect. In addition, measuring multiple variables, including time of day, diurnal patterns, feeding patterns, weather, and providing experimental control could aid in identifying the potential visitor effect for otters and other zoo animals. Full article

Background: Type II workplace violence by patients, relatives, or visitors is an occupational health and patient-safety concern in primary care. Cranston Ridge Medical Clinic (CRMC), a single urban family medicine and walk-in primary care clinic in Calgary, Alberta, plans to implement a universal, risk-informed workplace-safety bundle that is based on observable behaviour, situational risk, and documented safety concerns rather than demographic profiling. Methods: This article describes a single-site internal quality improvement and workplace-safety evaluation protocol. The comparison is CRMC usual practice during the pre-implementation baseline period; there is no concurrent external control group. The planned evaluation will use aggregate, de-identified operational data from a 12-month pre-implementation baseline, a four-week implementation period, and 12 months of post-implementation monitoring. All clinic staff will receive workplace-safety training as part of routine implementation. No staff, patients, or visitors will be recruited as research participants, and the evaluation will not use individual-level staff survey, interview, or focus-group data. Patient/visitor information will be used only as aggregate operational monitoring data when needed to assess safety, access, patient flow, and complaints. Intervention and analysis: The bundle includes worksite analysis, staff training, a brief arrival safety screen, a response algorithm, standardized reporting, monthly safety huddles, and post-incident support. The primary metric will be the Type II workplace-violence incident rate per 1000 clinic visits. Planned analyses include run charts, pre–post rate ratios, and Poisson or negative binomial segmented regression if monthly counts are sufficient. Implementation learning will be summarized from routine training records, safety-huddle summaries, post-incident debrief themes, and other aggregate de-identified operational indicators. Expected contribution: The protocol contributes a transparent, equity-sensitive, and operationally feasible model for balancing staff safety with patient access in primary care. Full article