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22 pages, 10285 KiB  
Article
Biophysical and Social Constraints of Restoring Ecosystem Services in the Border Regions of Tibet, China
by Lizhi Jia, Silin Liu, Xinjie Zha and Ting Hua
Land 2025, 14(8), 1601; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14081601 - 6 Aug 2025
Abstract
Ecosystem restoration represents a promising solution for enhancing ecosystem services and environmental sustainability. However, border regions—characterized by ecological fragility and geopolitical complexity—remain underrepresented in ecosystem service and restoration research. To fill this gap, we coupled spatially explicit models (e.g., InVEST and RUSLE) with [...] Read more.
Ecosystem restoration represents a promising solution for enhancing ecosystem services and environmental sustainability. However, border regions—characterized by ecological fragility and geopolitical complexity—remain underrepresented in ecosystem service and restoration research. To fill this gap, we coupled spatially explicit models (e.g., InVEST and RUSLE) with scenario analysis to quantify the ecosystem service potential that could be achieved in China’s Tibetan borderlands under two interacting agendas: ecological restoration and border-strengthening policies. Restoration feasibility was evaluated through combining local biophysical constraints, economic viability (via restoration-induced carbon gains vs. opportunity costs), operational practicality, and simulated infrastructure expansion. The results showed that per-unit-area ecosystem services in border counties (particularly Medog, Cona, and Zayu) exceed that of interior Tibet by a factor of two to four. Combining these various constraints, approximately 4–17% of the border zone remains cost-effective for grassland or forest restoration. Under low carbon pricing (US$10 t−1 CO2), the carbon revenue generated through restoration is insufficient to offset the opportunity cost of agricultural production, constituting a major constraint. Habitat quality, soil conservation, and carbon sequestration increase modestly when induced by restoration, but a pronounced carbon–water trade-off emerges. Planned infrastructure reduces restoration benefits only slightly, whereas raising the carbon price to about US$50 t−1 CO2 substantially expands such benefits. These findings highlight both the opportunities and limits of ecosystem restoration in border regions and point to carbon pricing as the key policy lever for unlocking cost-effective restoration. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Role of Land Policy in Shaping Rural Development Outcomes)
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23 pages, 857 KiB  
Article
Study of the Impact of Agricultural Insurance on the Livelihood Resilience of Farmers: A Case Study of Comprehensive Natural Rubber Insurance
by Jialin Wang, Yanglin Wu, Jiyao Liu and Desheng Zhang
Agriculture 2025, 15(15), 1683; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15151683 - 4 Aug 2025
Viewed by 219
Abstract
Against the backdrop of increasingly frequent extreme weather events and heightened market price volatility, investigating the relationship between agricultural insurance and farmers’ livelihood resilience is crucial for ensuring rural socioeconomic stability. This study utilizes field survey data from 1196 households across twelve county-level [...] Read more.
Against the backdrop of increasingly frequent extreme weather events and heightened market price volatility, investigating the relationship between agricultural insurance and farmers’ livelihood resilience is crucial for ensuring rural socioeconomic stability. This study utilizes field survey data from 1196 households across twelve county-level divisions (three cities and nine counties) from China’s Hainan and Yunnan provinces, specifically in natural rubber-producing regions. Using propensity score matching (PSM), we empirically examine agricultural insurance’s impact on household livelihood resilience. The results demonstrate that agricultural insurance increased the effect on farmers’ livelihood resilience by 1%. This effect is particularly pronounced among recently poverty-alleviated households and large-scale farming operations. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the mediating roles of credit availability, adoption of agricultural production technologies, and production initiative in strengthening insurance’s positive impact. Therefore, policies should be refined and expanded, combining agricultural insurance with credit support and agricultural technology extension to leverage their value and ensure the sustainable development of farm households. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Agricultural Economics, Policies and Rural Management)
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15 pages, 5152 KiB  
Article
Assessment of Emergy, Environmental and Economic Sustainability of the Mango Orchard Production System in Hainan, China
by Yali Lei, Xiaohui Zhou and Hanting Cheng
Sustainability 2025, 17(15), 7030; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17157030 - 2 Aug 2025
Viewed by 252
Abstract
Mangoes are an important part of Hainan’s tropical characteristic agriculture. In response to the requirements of building an ecological civilization pilot demonstration zone in Hainan, China, green and sustainable development will be the future development trend of the mango planting system. However, the [...] Read more.
Mangoes are an important part of Hainan’s tropical characteristic agriculture. In response to the requirements of building an ecological civilization pilot demonstration zone in Hainan, China, green and sustainable development will be the future development trend of the mango planting system. However, the economic benefits and environmental impact during its planting and management process remain unclear. This paper combines emergy, life cycle assessment (LCA), and economic analysis to compare the system sustainability, environmental impact, and economic benefits of the traditional mango cultivation system (TM) in Dongfang City, Hainan Province, and the early-maturing mango cultivation system (EM) in Sanya City. The emergy evaluation results show that the total emergy input of EM (1.37 × 1016 sej ha−1) was higher than that of TM (1.32 × 1016 sej ha−1). From the perspective of the emergy index, compared with TM, EM exerted less pressure on the local environment and has better stability and sustainability. This was due to the higher input of renewable resources in EM. The LCA results showed that based on mass as the functional unit, the potential environmental impact of the EM is relatively high, and its total environmental impact index was 18.67–33.19% higher than that of the TM. Fertilizer input and On-Farm emissions were the main factors causing environmental consequences. Choosing alternative fertilizers that have a smaller impact on the environment may effectively reduce the environmental impact of the system. The economic analysis results showed that due to the higher selling price of early-maturing mango, the total profit and cost–benefit ratio of the EM have increased by 55.84% and 36.87%, respectively, compared with the TM. These results indicated that EM in Sanya City can enhance environmental sustainability and boost producers’ annual income, but attention should be paid to the negative environmental impact of excessive fertilizer input. These findings offer insights into optimizing agricultural inputs for Hainan mango production to mitigate multiple environmental impacts while enhancing economic benefits, aiming to provide theoretical support for promoting the sustainable development of the Hainan mango industry. Full article
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27 pages, 4190 KiB  
Article
Dairy’s Development and Socio-Economic Transformation: A Cross-Country Analysis
by Ana Felis, Ugo Pica-Ciamarra and Ernesto Reyes
World 2025, 6(3), 105; https://doi.org/10.3390/world6030105 - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 184
Abstract
Global policy narratives on livestock development increasingly emphasize environmental concerns, often overlooking the social dimensions of the sector. In the case of dairy, the world’s most valuable agricultural commodity, its role in social and economic development remains poorly quantified. Our study contributes to [...] Read more.
Global policy narratives on livestock development increasingly emphasize environmental concerns, often overlooking the social dimensions of the sector. In the case of dairy, the world’s most valuable agricultural commodity, its role in social and economic development remains poorly quantified. Our study contributes to a more balanced vision of the UN SDGs thanks to the inclusion of a socio-economic dimension. Here we present a novel empirical approach to assess the socio-economic impacts of dairy development using a new global dataset and non-parametric modelling techniques (local polynomial regressions), with yield as a proxy for sectoral performance. We find that as dairy systems intensify, the number of farm households engaged in production declines, yet household incomes rise. On-farm labour productivity also increases, accompanied by a reduction in employment but higher wages. In dairy processing, employment initially grows, peaks, and then contracts, again with rising wages. The most substantial impact is observed among consumers: an increased milk supply leads to lower prices and improved affordability, expanding the access to dairy products. Additionally, dairy development is associated with greater agricultural value added, an expanding tax base, and the increased formalization of the economy. These findings suggest that dairy development, beyond its environmental footprint, plays a significant and largely positive role in social transformation, yet is having to adapt sustainably while tackling labour force relocation, and that dairy development’s social impacts mimic the general agricultural sector. These results might be of interest for the assessment of policies regarding dairy development. Full article
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24 pages, 2710 KiB  
Article
Spatial and Economic-Based Clustering of Greek Irrigation Water Organizations: A Data-Driven Framework for Sustainable Water Pricing and Policy Reform
by Dimitrios Tsagkoudis, Eleni Zafeiriou and Konstantinos Spinthiropoulos
Water 2025, 17(15), 2242; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152242 - 28 Jul 2025
Viewed by 338
Abstract
This study employs k-means clustering to analyze local organizations responsible for land improvement in Greece, identifying four distinct groups with consistent geographic patterns but divergent financial and operational characteristics. By integrating unsupervised machine learning with spatial analysis, the research offers a novel perspective [...] Read more.
This study employs k-means clustering to analyze local organizations responsible for land improvement in Greece, identifying four distinct groups with consistent geographic patterns but divergent financial and operational characteristics. By integrating unsupervised machine learning with spatial analysis, the research offers a novel perspective on irrigation water pricing and cost recovery. The findings reveal that organizations located on islands, despite high water costs due to limited rainfall and geographic isolation, tend to achieve relatively strong financial performance, indicating the presence of adaptive mechanisms that could inform broader policy strategies. In contrast, organizations managing extensive irrigable land or large volumes of water frequently show poor cost recovery, challenging assumptions about economies of scale and revealing inefficiencies in pricing or governance structures. The spatial coherence of the clusters underscores the importance of geography in shaping institutional outcomes, reaffirming that environmental and locational factors can offer greater explanatory power than algorithmic models alone. This highlights the need for water management policies that move beyond uniform national strategies and instead reflect regional climatic, infrastructural, and economic variability. The study suggests several policy directions, including targeted infrastructure investment, locally calibrated water pricing models, and performance benchmarking based on successful organizational practices. Although grounded in the Greek context, the methodology and insights are transferable to other European and Mediterranean regions facing similar water governance challenges. Recognizing the limitations of the current analysis—including gaps in data consistency and the exclusion of socio-environmental indicators—the study advocates for future research incorporating broader variables and international comparative approaches. Ultimately, it supports a hybrid policy framework that combines data-driven analysis with spatial intelligence to promote sustainability, equity, and financial viability in agricultural water management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Balancing Competing Demands for Sustainable Water Development)
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27 pages, 516 KiB  
Article
How Does Migrant Workers’ Return Affect Land Transfer Prices? An Investigation Based on Factor Supply–Demand Theory
by Mengfei Gao, Rui Pan and Yueqing Ji
Land 2025, 14(8), 1528; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14081528 - 24 Jul 2025
Viewed by 284
Abstract
Given the significant shifts in rural labor mobility patterns and their continuous influence on the transformation of the land factor market, it is crucial to understand the relationship between labor factor prices and land factor prices. This understanding is essential to keep land [...] Read more.
Given the significant shifts in rural labor mobility patterns and their continuous influence on the transformation of the land factor market, it is crucial to understand the relationship between labor factor prices and land factor prices. This understanding is essential to keep land factor prices within a reasonable range. This study establishes a theoretical framework to investigate how migrant workers’ return shapes land price formation mechanisms. Using 2023 micro-level survey data from eight counties in Jiangsu Province, China, this study empirically examines how migrant workers’ return affects land transfer prices and its underlying mechanisms through OLS regression and instrumental variable approaches. The findings show that under the current pattern of labor mobility, the outflow factor alone is no longer sufficient to exert substantial downward pressure on land transfer prices. Instead, the localized return of labor has emerged as a key driver behind the rise in land transfer prices. This upward mechanism is primarily realized through the following pathways. First, factor substitution effect: this effect lowers labor prices and increases the relative marginal output value of land factors. Second, supply–demand effect: migrant workers’ return simultaneously increases land demand and reduces supply, intensifying market shortages and driving up transfer prices. Lastly, the results demonstrate that enhancing the stability of land tenure security or increasing local non-agricultural employment opportunities can mitigate the effect of rising land transfer prices caused by the migrant workers’ return. According to the study’s findings, stabilizing land factor prices depends on full non-agricultural employment for migrant workers. This underscores the significance of policies that encourage employment for returning rural labor. Full article
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21 pages, 1074 KiB  
Article
Modeling a Financial Controlling System for Managing Transfer Pricing Operations
by Oleksii Kalivoshko, Volodymyr Kraievskyi, Bohdan Hnatkivskyi, Alla Savchenko, Nikolay Kiktev, Valentyna Borkovska, Irina Kliopova, Krzysztof Mudryk and Pawel Pysz
Sustainability 2025, 17(14), 6650; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17146650 - 21 Jul 2025
Viewed by 464
Abstract
The management of transfer pricing operations is considered from the perspective of modeling financial and accounting processes for various organizations, using agricultural enterprises as an example. It is demonstrated that the execution of transfer pricing operations between related parties—which may function as responsibility [...] Read more.
The management of transfer pricing operations is considered from the perspective of modeling financial and accounting processes for various organizations, using agricultural enterprises as an example. It is demonstrated that the execution of transfer pricing operations between related parties—which may function as responsibility centers within an organizational holding structure—serves as a managerial lever influencing the financial income and expenses of individual business units. It is revealed that the developed model of managerial accounting for transfer pricing operations, grounded in tax compliance and the balancing of stakeholder interests, is based on two key aspects: first, to ensure the balanced development of the company’s business units, a list of key performance indicators (KPIs) is developed and integrated into a balanced scorecard (BSC), promoting the sustainable and stable operation and growth of the company; second, with access to this list of KPIs, the manager of each business unit can exert indirect influence over a segment of the final product’s value chain by selecting transfer prices that adhere to the arm’s length principle. The practical application of the proposed model is illustrated using previously formed economic operations from the research base. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainable Agriculture)
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27 pages, 2572 KiB  
Article
Parallel Agent-Based Framework for Analyzing Urban Agricultural Supply Chains
by Manuel Ignacio Manríquez, Veronica Gil-Costa and Mauricio Marin
Future Internet 2025, 17(7), 316; https://doi.org/10.3390/fi17070316 - 19 Jul 2025
Viewed by 159
Abstract
This work presents a parallel agent-based framework designed to analyze the dynamics of vegetable trade within a metropolitan area. The system integrates agent-based and discrete event techniques to capture the complex interactions among farmers, vendors, and consumers in urban agricultural supply chains. Decision-making [...] Read more.
This work presents a parallel agent-based framework designed to analyze the dynamics of vegetable trade within a metropolitan area. The system integrates agent-based and discrete event techniques to capture the complex interactions among farmers, vendors, and consumers in urban agricultural supply chains. Decision-making processes are modeled in detail: farmers select crops based on market trends and environmental risks, while vendors and consumers adapt their purchasing behavior according to seasonality, prices, and availability. To efficiently handle the computational demands of large-scale scenarios, we adopt an optimistic approximate parallel execution strategy. Furthermore, we introduce a credit-based load balancing mechanism that mitigates the effects of heterogeneous communication patterns and improves scalability. This framework enables detailed analysis of food distribution systems in urban contexts, offering insights relevant to smart cities and digital agriculture initiatives. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Intelligent Agents and Their Application)
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24 pages, 2413 KiB  
Article
Agricultural Land Market Dynamics and Their Economic Implications for Sustainable Development in Poland
by Marcin Gospodarowicz, Bożena Karwat-Woźniak, Emil Ślązak, Adam Wasilewski and Anna Wasilewska
Sustainability 2025, 17(14), 6484; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17146484 - 15 Jul 2025
Viewed by 628
Abstract
This study examines Poland’s agricultural land market between 2009 and 2023 through fixed effects and spatial econometric models, highlighting economic and spatial determinants of land prices. Key results show that GDP per capita strongly increases land values (β = +0.699, p < 0.001), [...] Read more.
This study examines Poland’s agricultural land market between 2009 and 2023 through fixed effects and spatial econometric models, highlighting economic and spatial determinants of land prices. Key results show that GDP per capita strongly increases land values (β = +0.699, p < 0.001), while agricultural gross value added (–2.698, p = 0.009), soil quality (–6.241, p < 0.001), and land turnover (–0.395, p < 0.001) are associated with lower prices. Spatial dependence is confirmed (λ = 0.74), revealing strong regional spillovers. The volume of state-owned WRSP land sales declined from 37.4 thousand hectares in 2015 to 3.1 thousand hectares in 2023, while non-market transfers, such as donations, exceeded 49,000 annually. Although these trends support farmland protection and family farms, they also reduce market mobility and hinder generational renewal. The findings call for more flexible, sustainability-oriented land governance that combines ecological performance, regional equity, and improved access for young farmers. Full article
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21 pages, 23297 KiB  
Article
Global Tangerine Trade Market: Revealed Competitiveness and Market Powers
by Shu-Yi Chi, Chiao-Chun Chang and Li-Hsien Chien
Economies 2025, 13(7), 203; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070203 - 15 Jul 2025
Viewed by 399
Abstract
The international trade in agricultural products is complex and diverse. Global buyers must diversify their import sources, while sellers must explore new market opportunities. In the past, there has been no analysis on how second-tier exporters, with a smaller market share compared to [...] Read more.
The international trade in agricultural products is complex and diverse. Global buyers must diversify their import sources, while sellers must explore new market opportunities. In the past, there has been no analysis on how second-tier exporters, with a smaller market share compared to dominant exporters, interact in the same target market and within an existing trade market and what factors affect trade prices and market forces. Based on Vollrath’s revealed competitive advantage index framework, this study analyzes the global tangerine trade (HS08052100) and means of production from 2008 to 2021, performs clustering, and estimates the residual demand elasticities of two main second-tier exporting countries—South Africa and Morocco—in four major importing countries for empirical analysis. The results show that South African tangerines have a lower market share than Moroccan tangerines in the Netherlands, the United States, and the United Kingdom. However, all data indicate that the residual demand elasticity for the country’s products in the target markets is negative, indicating that South African exporters have market influence in all three markets and significantly affect the prices of Moroccan products in these markets. Unlike other studies that have focused on the ranking analysis of export indices, the novelty of this study is that it provides an oligopolistic framework based on agricultural value chain analysis, which can be used for many countries with limited export scales. The method proposed in this study is expected to help citrus traders to effectively find export markets by evaluating the remaining market niches using key market data and the prices of similar competitors in the same category. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Demand and Price Analysis in Agricultural and Food Economics)
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20 pages, 298 KiB  
Article
Beyond Conventional: Italian Consumer Perceptions, Purchasing Habits, and Willingness to Pay for Ancient Grain Pasta
by Concetta Nazzaro, Anna Uliano and Marcello Stanco
Nutrients 2025, 17(14), 2298; https://doi.org/10.3390/nu17142298 - 11 Jul 2025
Viewed by 341
Abstract
Background/Objectives: Ancient grains are increasingly recognized for their nutritional value, environmental sustainability, and connection to traditional agriculture. This study examines Italian consumers’ awareness, purchasing habits, and willingness to pay (WTP) for ancient grain pasta, focusing on the influence of product origin, price, and [...] Read more.
Background/Objectives: Ancient grains are increasingly recognized for their nutritional value, environmental sustainability, and connection to traditional agriculture. This study examines Italian consumers’ awareness, purchasing habits, and willingness to pay (WTP) for ancient grain pasta, focusing on the influence of product origin, price, and flour type on preferences. Methods: An online survey was conducted with 3020 Italian household grocery shoppers. Descriptive statistics assessed awareness and purchasing behavior, while conjoint analysis (CA) evaluated the relative importance of key product attributes (origin, price, and flour type) in pasta choices. The sample was segmented based on consumer knowledge of ancient grains. Results: A significant portion of respondents reported familiarity with ancient grains, perceiving them as “less refined” and “more digestible”; pasta emerged as the most purchased product. CA results indicated product origin as the most influential factor, followed by price, with flour type having comparatively lower influence. Notably, consumers more familiar with ancient grains showed a slight preference for ancient flour types and were less sensitive to price. Conclusions: While origin and price are primary drivers for pasta choices, knowledgeable consumers show greater valuation for flour type and accept higher prices. These findings provide strategic insights for stakeholders seeking to promote traditional, sustainable agri-food products through targeted marketing and transparent value communication. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Future Prospects for Sustaining a Healthier Food System)
24 pages, 237 KiB  
Article
Student Perceptions of Sustainability in the HoReCa Sector: Awareness, Engagement, and Challenges
by Marian Mocan, Larisa Ivascu, Timea Agache and Andrei Agache
Sustainability 2025, 17(14), 6384; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17146384 - 11 Jul 2025
Viewed by 332
Abstract
The HoReCa (Hotels, Restaurants, and Cafes) sector plays a pivotal role in the economy due to its strong connections with various other industries, including agriculture, food and beverage, construction, packaging, waste management, water, and textiles. Given its broad impact, understanding the perceptions of [...] Read more.
The HoReCa (Hotels, Restaurants, and Cafes) sector plays a pivotal role in the economy due to its strong connections with various other industries, including agriculture, food and beverage, construction, packaging, waste management, water, and textiles. Given its broad impact, understanding the perceptions of students—emerging consumers and future professionals—could provide valuable insights for businesses seeking to enhance sustainable practices in ways that resonate with younger generations and improve their competitiveness. However, there is still limited understanding of how students perceive and engage with sustainability in this sector. This study explores student perceptions of sustainability practices within the HoReCa sector, examining their awareness levels, expectations, and behavior. The objective is to assess how effectively current business approaches align with student values regarding sustainability initiatives and identify key factors influencing their engagement. A structured questionnaire was distributed among university students, and the collected data was analyzed using statistical techniques to identify meaningful trends and correlations. Findings revealed a notable disconnect between students’ professed sustainability values and their actual behavior. Primary obstacles included price sensitivity, skepticism toward environmental marketing claims, and insufficient access to clear sustainability information from businesses. Despite supporting sustainable initiatives in principle, students often struggle to translate their values into purchasing decisions. The research suggests that greater business transparency, enhanced sustainability education, and incentive programs could foster increased student engagement. Full article
25 pages, 3239 KiB  
Article
Community Perceptions and Determinants of the Sustained Conservation of Historical Rubber Plantations in the Lomela and Lodja Territories, Sankuru Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo
by Maurice Kesonga Nsele, Serge Shakanye Ndjadi, Charles Mumbere Musavandalo, Désiré Numbi Mujike, Israël Muchiza Bachinyaga, John Tshomba Kalumbu, Eli Mwishingo Mutwedu, Joël Mobunda Tiko, Séraphin Irenge Murhula, François Tshamba Y’onyowokoma, Jean-Pierre Mate Mweru and Baudouin Michel
Conservation 2025, 5(3), 33; https://doi.org/10.3390/conservation5030033 - 5 Jul 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 388
Abstract
The drastic and historic fall in natural rubber prices has prompted many smallholders around the world to abandon rubber plantations in favor of other survival alternatives. In the Lomela and Lodja territories of Sankuru Province (Democratic Republic of Congo), where a historical absence [...] Read more.
The drastic and historic fall in natural rubber prices has prompted many smallholders around the world to abandon rubber plantations in favor of other survival alternatives. In the Lomela and Lodja territories of Sankuru Province (Democratic Republic of Congo), where a historical absence of a rubber market prevails, local communities have conserved rubber plantations inherited from the colonial era (dating back to 1955). Data collected from 401 households enabled us to identify the perceptions and determinants of rubber plantation conservation. The results show that households are highly dependent on forest ecosystem services. Agriculture is the main activity for 81.3% of respondents, in the context of extreme poverty where daily incomes amount to 0.33 USD/person. The patriarchal system favored men, who inherited 97% of the plantations. Men perceived the conservation of the plantations as beneficial, while women perceived it as serving external project interests. Perceptions were significantly influenced by gender, age, social and legal organization, geographical origin, mode of acquisition, main activity, diversification of income sources, membership in a tribal mutuality, access to the informal mutual aid networks, membership in an association and contact with extension services. Conservation was positively and significantly correlated with geographical origin, membership in an association, contact with extension service, consideration of plantations as natural heritage and the ecosystem services provided. These results underline that rubber plantations cannot be understood only in terms of rubber production, but also in terms of their socio-ecological and heritage dimensions. Full article
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16 pages, 1792 KiB  
Article
The Russia–Ukraine Conflict and Stock Markets: Risk and Spillovers
by Maria Leone, Alberto Manelli and Roberta Pace
Risks 2025, 13(7), 130; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks13070130 - 4 Jul 2025
Viewed by 853
Abstract
Globalization and the spread of technological innovations have made world markets and economies increasingly unified and conditioned by international trade, not only for sales markets but above all for the supply of raw materials necessary for the functioning of the production complex of [...] Read more.
Globalization and the spread of technological innovations have made world markets and economies increasingly unified and conditioned by international trade, not only for sales markets but above all for the supply of raw materials necessary for the functioning of the production complex of each country. Alongside oil and gold, the main commodities traded include industrial metals, such as aluminum and copper, mineral products such as gas, electrical and electronic components, agricultural products, and precious metals. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine tested the unification of markets, given that these are countries with notable raw materials and are strongly dedicated to exports. This suggests that commodity prices were able to influence the stock markets, especially in the countries most closely linked to the two belligerents in terms of import-export. Given the importance of industrial metals in this period of energy transition, the aim of our study is to analyze whether Industrial Metals volatility affects G7 stock markets. To this end, the BEKK-GARCH model is used. The sample period spans from 3 January 2018 to 17 September 2024. The results show that lagged shocks and volatility significantly and positively influence the current conditional volatility of commodity and stock returns during all periods. In fact, past shocks inversely influence the current volatility of stock indices in periods when external events disrupt financial markets. The results show a non-linear and positive impact of commodity volatility on the implied volatility of the stock markets. The findings suggest that the war significantly affected stock prices and exacerbated volatility, so investors should diversify their portfolios to maximize returns and reduce risk differently in times of crisis, and a lack of diversification of raw materials is a risky factor for investors. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Management in Financial and Commodity Markets)
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18 pages, 2771 KiB  
Article
Short-Term Forecasting of Crop Production for Sustainable Agriculture in a Changing Climate
by Vincenzo Guerriero, Anna Rita Scorzini, Bruno Di Lena, Mario Di Bacco and Marco Tallini
Sustainability 2025, 17(13), 6135; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17136135 - 4 Jul 2025
Viewed by 308
Abstract
Globally, crop productive systems exhibit climatic adaptation, resulting in increased overall yields over the past century. Nevertheless, inter-annual fluctuations in production can lead to food price volatility, raising concerns about food security. Within this framework, short-term crop yield predictions informed by climate observations [...] Read more.
Globally, crop productive systems exhibit climatic adaptation, resulting in increased overall yields over the past century. Nevertheless, inter-annual fluctuations in production can lead to food price volatility, raising concerns about food security. Within this framework, short-term crop yield predictions informed by climate observations may significantly contribute to sustainable agricultural development. In this study, we discuss the criteria for historical monitoring and forecasting of the productive system response to climatic fluctuations, both ordinary and extreme. Here, forecasting is intended as an assessment of the conditional probability distribution of crop yield, given the observed value of a key climatic index in an appropriately chosen month of the year. Wheat production in the Teramo province (central Italy) is adopted as a case study to illustrate the approach. To characterize climatic conditions, this study utilizes the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) as a key indicator impacting wheat yield. Validation has been carried out by means of Monte Carlo simulations, confirming the effectiveness of the method. The main findings of this study show that the model describing the yield–SPEI relationship has time-varying parameters and that the study of their variation trend allows for an estimate of their current values. These results are of interest from a methodological point of view, as these methods can be adapted to various crop products across different geographical regions, offering a tool to anticipate production figures. This offers effective tools for informed decision-making in support of both agricultural and economic sustainability, with the additional benefit of helping to mitigate price volatility. Full article
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