Search Results (424)

Arid Central Asia (ACA) is a major source of atmospheric dust in the Northern Hemisphere; however, the evolutionary models and driving mechanisms of Holocene aeolian activity in this region remain debated. Based on 13 reliable AMS ¹⁴C dates from the Sayram Lake SLM2009 sediment core, this study reconstructs the Holocene sequence in aeolian activity through end-member modeling analysis (EMMA). It evaluates its relationship with regional atmospheric circulation. Four end-members were identified from base to top: EM1, with a modal grain size of 7.58 μm, represents low-energy suspension deposition; EM2 (26.30 μm) reflects lacustrine hydrodynamic processes; while EM3 (52.48 μm) and EM4 (416.86 μm) serve as proxies for regional aeolian activity. The results indicate that aeolian activity was relatively strong during the early Holocene (reaching peaks at 11.7–11.2 and 9.2–8.1 cal ka BP), significantly intensified during the mid-Holocene (7.3–5.3 cal ka BP), and gradually weakened in the late Holocene (since 4.0 cal ka BP). Comparison of the aeolian record from Lake Sayram with Greenland ice cores, North Atlantic ice-rafted debris events, and the GISP2 K⁺ record indicates that variations in aeolian activity in arid Central Asia are closely linked to the Northern Hemisphere climate system. We propose that these variations were primarily modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation, driven by the synergistic interaction between the Siberian High and the mid-latitude westerlies. Full article

Analysis of the hydroclimatic variations in complex topographic and climatic regimes is important in determining the freshwater availability and its response. Although several previous studies have assessed the changing patterns of hydroclimatic variables in South Asian River basins, most of them have considered traditional statistical methods, which may inadequately reflect potential non-linear hydroclimatic trends. This study determines long-term variations in precipitation, temperature, and streamflow in the Soan River Basin of Pakistan, using three decades of in situ records (1991–2020). A non-parametric (Mann–Kendall) trend test along with an artificial neural network (ANN) approach was used to check the linear and non-linear trends. The results exhibited that the basin was getting warmer at a consistent rate, although the amount of precipitation varied significantly with location and season. The annual average amount of precipitation over the entire basin was decreasing at the rate of −7.33 mm/year. As compared to the westerly season, the trend of monsoon precipitation was less certain. Changes in streamflow patterns generally demonstrated the consequences of changing precipitation and rising temperature patterns. The annual average streamflow was decreasing at the rate of −0.47 (−1.30) m³/year, as per the results of MK (ANN). A moderate positive correlation between precipitation and streamflow indicates that precipitation mainly governed the flows in the basin. The results of the MK test and the machine-learning approach demonstrated the similar decreasing tendencies of hydroclimatic variables. However, the ANN approach more precisely demonstrates the non-linear behavior of hydroclimatic variables. It was concluded that the streamflow patterns were considerably responsive to the warming of the Soan River Basin, as well as to the changing behavior of precipitation. These findings emphasized the significance of integrating statistical and machine-learning approaches to enhance the comprehension of hydroclimatic trends. Results of this research could be applicable in sustainable management and planning of the water resources within the basin. Full article

A remote analysis of coastal sedimentation in northern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa, describes how summer runoff and winter wave-action operate within a highly variable climate. Despite rising sea levels, the sediment flux can sustain beaches under certain conditions. Daily satellite red-band reflectivity and ocean–atmosphere reanalysis datasets were studied over the period of 2018–2025. Statistical results indicate that streamflow discharges are spread northward by oblique wave-driven currents. Sediment concentrations peak during late winter (>1 mg/L, May–October) when deep turbulent mixing (>40 m) mobilizes sand from the seabed. A case study from September 2021 revealed that ridging high-pressure/cut-off low weather patterns can simultaneously increase streamflow, wave energy, and wind power, creating a surf-zone sediment conveyor along the coast of northern KZN. Long-term climate diagnostics from 1981 to 2025 reveal upward trends in coastal runoff, vegetation, and turbidity (0.29 σ/yr) that point to an increasingly vigorous water cycle. The warming of the southeast Atlantic intensifies the sub-tropical upper-level westerlies and late winter storms over southeast Africa. These processes occur in 5–8 year cycles and drive shoreline advance and retreat, from accretion ~1 T/m and storm surge inundations up to 5.5 m. Using Digital Earth, it was noted that ~1/4 of beaches around Africa are gaining sediment while ~1/3 are eroding. Although remote information could not close the sediment budget, realistic estimates of long-shore transport in the surf-zone (>10⁴ kg/yr/m) and on the beach (>10³ kg/yr/m) were calculated. These provide an emerging explanation for the resilience of northern KZN beaches, as sea levels rise at a rate of 0.6 cm/yr. Full article

With the rapid exploitation of offshore wind energy in the Beibu Gulf (BG), understanding local low-level wind variability is essential for wind farm operations. This study examines the interannual relationships between the BG low-level winds in June and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) during 1993–2021 using multiple datasets. The meridional and zonal winds show negligible correlation on interannual time scales. Further analysis indicates that the meridional wind over the BG is significantly linked to the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and tropical Atlantic (TA) SST. The TIO warming is able to intensify the Western Pacific Subtropical High via eastward-propagating Kelvin waves, inducing southerly wind anomalies over the BG. In contrast, the TA warming modulates the Walker circulation and triggers westward-propagating Rossby wave trains, forming an anomalous Philippine anticyclone and associated southerly winds. The anomalous southerly winds associated with TIO (TA) warming are contributed by changes in both rotational and divergent wind components (primarily divergent wind component). Conversely, the zonal wind over the BG is significantly correlated with the tropical Pacific SST. The equatorial eastern Pacific warming excites westward-propagating Rossby waves, generating an anomalous anticyclone and resulting in westerly anomalies over the BG. Air–sea coupling links warm SST in the northwestern Pacific to a local anticyclonic circulation, forming easterly anomalies in the BG. Notably, the tropical SST associated zonal wind anomalies are primarily driven by rotational wind component. This study clarifies how tropical SST anomalies influence low-level winds over the Beibu Gulf and distinguishes the roles of rotational and divergent wind components, providing new insights into the predictability of local wind variability. Full article

Rocky shores are characterized by rough, multi-scale bathymetric variations that result in enhanced wave energy dissipation by bottom friction compared to sandy beaches. Realistic SWAN simulations of surface gravity waves across the rocky shores of Monterey (CA, USA) are conducted, and model results are compared to 20 inner-shelf observational sites spanning 34–5 m water depth. The wave field was highly variable during the study, including alternately low energy waves dominated by southern swell and higher energy local waves aligned with strong north-westerly winds. Including a modified bottom friction parameterization is required for the model to reproduce bulk wave statistics with high skill across the entire inner shelf. The SWAN simulation with the default bottom friction parameterization overestimates significant wave height relative to observations because the friction factor $f_e$ parameterization has a maximum value of 0.3. Additional simulations included two empirical formulations relating $f_e$ to the normalized wave excursion $A_b/k_N$ in the large roughness regime $A_b/k_N<1$. Both simulations incorporate a higher $f_e$ that is required to model strong bottom friction dissipation over rocky seabeds. The higher friction factors, with 80% falling within the range 0.43 to 5.38, are associated with variability in the normalized orbital excursion within $0.1<A_b/k_N<1$. This range corresponds to a large bottom roughness length scale, $k_N=0.5$ m, characteristic of rocky shore environments. Full article

Lago Argentino and Lago Viedma are large lakes fed by glaciers in Southern Patagonia, characterized by extraordinarily strong, persistent westerly winds and sharp gradients in regional relief, climate, and gravity field. We present operational models of spatio-temporal lake-level variations that represent instantaneous ellipsoidal lake-surface height as the superposition of three components: (i) a time-averaged lake-level topography derived from geoid modeling and ICESat-2 residuals, (ii) temporally varying water-volume changes in the lake estimated from tide gauge time series corrected for atmospherically driven perturbations, and (iii) a static hydrodynamic response to wind stress and air-pressure forcing. The atmospheric response is parametrized through empirically derived transfer functions obtained by regressing instantaneous lake-level anomalies against ERA5 wind and pressure fields, capturing wind-driven tilting. Standard deviations of ICESat-2 ATL13 elevations amount to 106 cm and 70 cm over Lago Argentino and Lago Viedma, respectively. The subtraction of our models reduces these standard deviations to 8 cm (Argentino) and 14 cm (Viedma). Surface waves incompletely averaged out within ICESat-2’s narrow footprint are identified as a principal source for the residual variability. A standard deviation of ATL13 elevations below 2 cm on calm days demonstrates ICESat-2’s unprecedented capability of monitoring water resources from space in a region of sparse hydrological infrastructure. Full article

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) varies seasonally. Both moist and dry dynamical processes would contribute to this seasonality. Previous results have suggested strong dependence of MJO phase speed on planetary-scale upper tropospheric Kelvin waves interacting with the mean flow. Composites and phase speed spectra assess the association between the Indian Basin MJO circulation and convection with variations in equatorial upper tropospheric background wind patterns, including seasonal variability. Results show that the fastest eastward propagation over the Indian Ocean (>10 ms⁻¹) tends to occur during northern spring when background upper tropospheric easterlies are weakest. Northern winter signals typically advance eastward between 4 and 10 ms⁻¹. Strong easterly background wind conditions during northern summer usually prevent propagation eastward along the equator from the Western Indian Ocean. Results also show relative amplitude variations between the MJO’s upper and lower tropospheric zonal wind signals, with the upper tropospheric circulation signals being disproportionately stronger than the lower tropospheric ones over the Western Hemisphere to East Africa. The upper tropospheric easterly wind anomalies grow over the Western Indian Ocean first, as specific humidity increases in lower tropospheric easterly wind to the east. Then, lower tropospheric westerly wind emerges west of the emerging convection, suggesting that lower tropospheric wind change depends more directly on moist processes than the upper tropospheric wind. Full article

To improve diagnostics and prediction of changes caused by increased impact of anthropogenic activity, it is necessary to increase the comparative analysis of measurements and modeling of ozone—one of the climatically important atmospheric gases due to the decisive influence of stratospheric ozone on the radiation balance of the Earth-atmosphere system and the role of tropospheric ozone, the third most significant anthropogenic factor contributing to the greenhouse effect. This task is particularly relevant for Russia, as its geographical location makes it more vulnerable to climate change than other countries, whereas its regional tendencies in ozone variability have not yet been studied in sufficient detail. An analysis of IKFS-2 tropospheric ozone content (TrOC) measurements for 2015–2022 revealed that in Siberian, Far Eastern, North Caucasian, and Southern federal districts of Russia TrOC maximum, caused by photochemical formation of ground-level ozone, is observed in July (up to 30–35 DU for monthly means in surface-400 hPa layer). In Northwestern federal district, TrOC maximum (up to 25–30 DU), determined by meridional transport, is observed in late spring. No statistically significant linear trends in TrOC are detected. The WRF-Chem model qualitatively describes the seasonal variations of TrOC as well as the anomalous increase in TrOC caused by forest fires. The variability of total ozone content (TOC) is analyzed by OMI (2005–2023) and IKFS-2 (2015–2022) measurements as well as by SOCOLv3 simulations. Ozone negative anomalies in spring (up to 15% for monthly means) are generally observed with positive Arctic oscillation index values and a westerly phase of Quasi-biennial oscillations. For the 2008–2022 period, a statistically significant increase in TOC (+1.6–1.7% per year) is obtained for European Russia and Western and Central Siberia in November. Full article

This study investigates the complex relationship between fracture patterns and acoustic emission (AE) mechanisms during triaxial deformation experiments on Westerly granite under various confining pressures (5, 10, 20, and 40 MPa). Using numerical simulations with the Particle Flow Code (PFC2D, 6.0, Itasca Consulting Group Inc., Minneapolis, MN, USA), this research emphasizes the significant influence of confining pressure on crack development, AE events, spatiotemporal distribution, energy dissipation, and peak stress in the samples. AE source mechanisms, categorized into T-Type, C-Type, and S-Type, show the dominance of T-Type fractures during post-peak unstable failure and the emergence of C-Type fractures as precursors to critical damage. Additionally, increasing confining pressure is found to correlate with changes in fracture dynamics, evidenced by an increase in big events and a decrease in small events. The analysis of b-values across different pressures reveals fluctuations that indicate change in fracture features. Fractures originate in the model center and propagate towards both ends as loading progresses, ultimately leading to failure. In summary, these findings provide important insights into the fracture patterns of granite and the underlying mechanisms of AE release. Moreover, they carry practical implications for identifying failure precursors and for the potential application of early warning systems in rock engineering. Full article

Understanding the Holocene environmental history of desert landscapes in northern China contributes to elucidating the mechanisms driving desertification in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Based on a systematic and comparative analysis on integrated paleoclimatic data from both China and the international community, this paper reviews the environmental evolution history of the Alashan Plateau since the Holocene, drawing upon sedimentary and proxy records from three major sandy deserts on the plateau—the Badanjilin, Tenggeli, Wulanbuhe Deserts. The results indicate that the Alashan Plateau experienced generally humid conditions during the early and middle Holocene, characterized by the development of high-level lakes; in contrast, the late Holocene was marked by aridity and intensified aeolian activity. For the three deserts on the plateau, the environmental evolution of the Tenggeli Desert during the early Holocene diverges from that of the other two. Meanwhile, the mid-Holocene drought event in the Badanjilin Deserts remains debated, centering on whether its spatial scale was local or regional across the plateau. The driving mechanism of environmental evolution in the study area can be fundamentally understood through the atmospheric and oceanic circulation systems, combined with solar insolation in the middle latitudes of NH. This interplay is comprehensively reflected by the interactions between the westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) across different periods. Responses of the Alashan Plateau’s climate to global change involve the combined effects of multiple factors, including the Westerlies, the EASM, the Atlantic-Pacific-Ocean (APO) circulation anomalies, the ‘third polar’ environmental effect of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, and the hydrological influence of the Yellow River, etc. The Holocene environmental evolution history of the study area was primarily shaped by climate patterns characterized by cold-dry and cold–wet (or temperate-moist) regimes. Understanding these patterns may provide insights for forecasting future climate trends in the Alashan Plateau under current global warming. Full article

Since early 2023, severe to exceptional drought has developed in southern coastal Australia, with dam levels falling as stream flows plummet. The wet season, April to September, reflects the most equatorward position of the mid-latitude westerly wind regime that brings rain-bearing systems to southern coastal Australia. Climatologically, an upper-level tropospheric split-jet is present in the Australia–New Zealand region. This is evident in the subtropical jet (STJ) location when the 1965 to 1995 u-component of the 250 hPa wind anomaly, relative to 1991 to 2020, is located above northern tropical Australia, and the weaker polar-front jet (PFJ) branch anomaly spans the mid-latitudes south of Australia. Permutation testing revealed a statistically significant decrease in the 2016 to 2025 wet season mean precipitation across southern Australia. Compared with the 1965 to 1995 u-component wind anomaly at 250 hPa, the 2006 to 2015 decadal anomaly still shows the split jet with the STJ branch over northern tropical Australia and the PFJ in the mid-latitudes of the Australia–New Zealand region. However, there is a dramatic change in position and structure of the STJ branch of the split jet, between the 1965 to 2015 and the 2016 to 2025 anomalies. The split jet structure has shifted approximately 10° poleward, causing rain-producing systems to track south of the Australian continent. The reduced precipitation can generate more frequent and intense droughts, with greatly reduced stream flows and dam levels. Historically, the low precipitation warm season follows from October to March when heatwaves, combined with pre-existing dry conditions, often create catastrophic bushfire conditions. Full article

Wind energy has the potential to become an important source of energy for remote Arctic regions. However, there are risks associated with the exposure of coastal wind parks to extremely strong winds caused by storms and polar lows. Extreme winds can either enhance or reduce wind energy production. The outcomes largely depend on the coastal landscape surrounding the wind park. To address these questions, we conducted a series of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This study focuses on one of the strongest wind events along the western Norwegian coast—the landfall of the storm “Ylva” (24–27 November 2017). The study employs terrain-resolving downscaling by zooming in on the area of the Kvitfjell–Raudfjell wind park, Norway. The terrain-resolving WRF simulations reveal stronger winds at turbine hub height (80 m to 100 m above the ground level) in the coastal area. However, it was previously overlooked that the landfall of an Atlantic storm, which approaches this area from the southwest, brings the strongest winds from southeast directions, i.e., from the land. This creates geographically extensive and vertically deep wind-sheltered areas along the coast. Wind speeds at hub height in these sheltered areas are reduced, while they remain extreme over wind-channeling sea fjords. The novelty and applied value of this study is that it reveals an overlooked opportunity for optimal wind park siting. The coastal wind parks can take advantage of both sustained westerly winds during normal weather conditions and wind sheltering during extreme storm conditions. We found that the Kvitfjell–Raudfjell location is nearly optimal with respect to the extreme winds of “Ylva.” Full article

The Canadian Prairies are a region of critical importance to continental hydroclimate and agriculture, exhibiting high sensitivity to variability in atmospheric moisture transport. This study investigates the seasonal and interannual variability of integrated moisture flux over the Canadian Prairie region (96° W–114° W, 49° N–53° N) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis dataset from 1979 to 2023. We employ a combination of composite analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to identify the dominant modes of variability and their associated large-scale synoptic drivers. Our results confirm a strong seasonal reversal: winter moisture flux is predominantly zonal (westerly), contributing an average of 90% to total inbound flux, while summer flux is primarily meridional (southerly), contributing a dominant 72.6%. Composite analysis of extreme moisture years reveals that anomalously high-moisture winters are associated with an intensified Aleutian Low and a strengthened pressure gradient off the North American west coast, facilitating enhanced westerly flow. Conversely, a strengthened continental high-pressure system characterizes anomalously low-moisture winters. During summer, high-moisture years are driven by an enhanced southerly component of the flow, likely linked to a strengthened Great Plains Low-Level Jet (GPLLJ). The first EOF mode for winter explains 43% of the variance in eastward flux and is characterized by a pattern consistent with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection pattern. These findings underscore the control of Pacific-centric circulation patterns on Prairie hydroclimate in winter and have significant implications for predicting seasonal water availability. Full article

Southern Patagonia in Argentina possesses a world-class wind resource; however, its remote location challenges long-term monitoring. This study presents the first long-term Doppler LiDAR-based wind characterization in the region, analyzing six months of high-resolution data at a 100 m hub height. Power for the LiDAR is provided by a hybrid system combining photovoltaic (PV) and grid sources, with remote monitoring. The results reveal two distinct seasonal regimes identified through a multi-model statistical framework (Weibull, Lognormal, and non-parametric Kernel Density Estimation: a high-energy summer with concentrated westerly flows and pronounced diurnal cycles (Weibull scale parameter A ≈ 11.9 m/s), and a more stable autumn with a broad wind direction spectrum (shape parameter k ≈ 2.86). Energy output, simulated using Windographer v5.3.12 (Academic License) for a Vestas V117-3.3 MW turbine, shows close alignment (~15% difference) with the operational Bicentenario I & II wind farm (Jaramillo, AR), validating the site’s wind energy potential. This study confirms the viability of utility-scale wind power generation in Southern Patagonia and establishes Doppler LiDAR as a reliable tool for high-resolution wind resource assessment in remote, high-wind environments. Full article

This study investigates the characteristics and causes of a low-level wind shear (LLWS) event induced by downward momentum transport at Xining Airport, China on 5 April 2023. By utilizing Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL), Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS), and ERA5 reanalysis data, the detailed structure and synoptic-scale mechanisms of the event were analyzed. The LLWS manifested as a non-convective, meso-γ scale (2–20 km) directional wind shear, characterized by horizontal variations in wind direction. The system moved from northwest to southeast and persisted for approximately three hours. The shear zone was characterized by westerly flow to the west and easterly flow to the east, with their convergence triggering upward motion. The Range Height Indicator (RHI) and Doppler Beam Swinging (DBS) modes of the DWL clearly revealed the features of westerly downward momentum transport. Diagnostic analysis of the synoptic-scale environment reveals that a developing 300-hPa trough steered the merging of the subtropical and polar front jets. This interaction provided a robust source of momentum. The secondary circulation excited in the jet entrance region promoted active vertical motion, facilitating the exchange of momentum and energy between levels. Simultaneously, the development of the upper-level trough led to the intrusion of high potential vorticity (PV) air from the upper levels (100–300 hPa) into the middle troposphere (approximately 500 hPa), which effectively transported high-momentum air downward and dynamically induced convergence in the low-level wind field. Furthermore, the establishment of a deep dry-adiabatic mixed layer in the afternoon provided a favorable thermodynamic environment for momentum transport. These factors collectively led to the occurrence of the LLWS. This study will further deepen the understanding of the formation mechanism of momentum-driven LLWS at plateau airports, and provide a scientific basis for improving the forecasting and warning of such hazardous aviation weather events. Full article