Search Results (153)

Seasonal climate forecasts are an essential tool for providing early insight into weather-related impacts and supporting decision-making in sectors such as agriculture, energy, and disaster management. Accurate representation of atmospheric circulation at the seasonal scale is essential, especially in regions such as the Eastern Mediterranean, where complex synoptic patterns drive significant climate variability. The aim of this study is to perform a comparison of weather type classifications between ERA5 reanalysis and seasonal forecasts in order to assess the ability of seasonal data to capture the synoptic patterns over the Eastern Mediterranean. For this purpose, we introduce a regional seasonal forecasting framework based on the state-of-the-art Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model. A series of sensitivity experiments were also conducted to evaluate the robustness of the model’s performance under different configurations. Moreover, the ability of seasonal data to reproduce observed trends in weather types over the historical period is also examined. The classification results from both ERA5 and seasonal forecasts reveal a consistent dominance of anticyclonic weather types throughout most of the year, with a particularly strong signal during the summer months. Model evaluation indicates that seasonal forecasts achieve an accuracy of approximately 80% in predicting the daily synoptic condition (cyclonic or anticyclonic) up to three months in advance. These findings highlight the promising skill of seasonal datasets in capturing large-scale circulation features and their associated trends in the region. Full article

This study explores the relationship between land use and land cover (LULC) changes and a significant cyclogenesis event that occurred in Alabama’s Black Belt region from 6 to 7 October 2021. Utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, two scenarios were analyzed: the WRF Control Run, which maintained unchanged LULC, and the WRF Sensitivity Experiment, which converted 56.5% of forested areas into cropland to assess the impact on storm dynamics. Quantitative comparisons of predicted rainfall from both simulations were conducted against observed data. The control run demonstrated a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.64, indicating accurate rainfall predictions. In contrast, the modified scenario yielded an RMSE of 2.01, suggesting lower reliability. The Mean Bias (MB) values were 1.32 for the control run and 1.58 for the modified scenario, revealing notable discrepancies in accuracy. The coefficient of determination (R²) was 0.247 for the control run and 0.270 for the modified scenario. The Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) value was 0.1567 for the control run but dropped to −0.2257 following LULC modifications. Sensitivity analyses revealed a 60% increase in heat flux and a 36% rise in precipitation, underscoring the significant impact of LULC on meteorological outcomes. While this study concentrated on the Black Belt region, the methodologies employed could apply to various other areas, though caution is advised when generalizing these results to different climates and socio-economic contexts. Further research is necessary to enhance the model’s applicability across diverse environments. Full article

The objective of this article is to conduct a review to analyze global trends in the use of air pollution models under the influence of climate variability (CV) over urban areas. Five scientific databases were used (2013–2024): Scopus, ScienceDirect, SpringerLink, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. The frequency of citations of the variables of interest in the selected scientific databases was analyzed by means of an index using quartiles (Q). The results showed a hierarchy in the use of models: regional climate models/RCMs (Q3) > statistical models/SMs (Q3) > chemical transport models/CTMs (Q4) > machine learning models/MLMs (Q4) > atmospheric dispersion models/ADMs (Q4). RCMs, such as WRF, were essential for generating high-resolution projections of air pollution, crucial for local impact assessments. SMs, such as GAM, excelled in modeling nonlinear relationships between air pollutants and climate variables. CTMs, such as WRF-Chem, simulated detailed atmospheric chemical processes vital for understanding pollutant formation and transport. MLMs, such as ANNs, improved the accuracy of predictions and uncovered complex patterns. ADMs, such as HYSPLIT, evaluated air pollutant dispersion, informing regulatory strategies. The most studied pollutants globally were O₃ (Q3) > PM (Q3) > VOCs (Q4) > NOx (Q4) > SO₂ (Q4), with models adapting to their specific characteristics. Temperature emerged as the dominant climate variable, followed by wind, precipitation, humidity, and solar radiation. There was a clear differentiation in the selection of models and variables between high- and low-income countries. CTMs predominated in high-income countries, driven by their ability to simulate complex physicochemical processes, while SMs were preferred in low-income countries, due to their simplicity and lower resource requirements. Temperature was the main climate variable, and precipitation stood out in low-income countries for its impact on PM removal. VOCs were the most studied pollutant in high-income countries, and NOx in low-income countries, reflecting priorities and technical capabilities. The coupling between regional atmospheric models and city-scale air quality models was vital; future efforts should emphasize intra-urban models for finer urban pollution resolution. This study highlights how national resources and priorities influence air pollution research over cities under the influence of CV. Full article

Large-scale windstorms represent an important atmospheric hazard in the Northeastern US (NE) and are associated with substantial socioeconomic losses. Regional simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using lateral boundary conditions from three Earth System Models (ESMs: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and Max Planck Institute (MPI)) are used to quantify possible future changes in windstorm characteristics and/or changes in the parent cyclone types responsible for windstorms. WRF nested within MPI ESM best represents important aspects of historical windstorms and the cyclone types responsible for generating windstorms compared with a reference simulation performed with the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the historical climate. The spatial scale and frequency of the largest windstorms in each simulation defined using the greatest extent of exceedance of local 99.9th percentile wind speeds (U > U₉₉₉) plus 50-year return period wind speeds (U_50,RP) do not exhibit secular trends. Projections of extreme wind speeds and windstorm intensity/frequency/geolocation and dominant parent cyclone type associated with windstorms vary markedly across the simulations. Only the MPI nested simulations indicate statistically significant differences in windstorm spatial scale, frequency and intensity over the NE in the future and historical periods. This model chain, which also exhibits the highest fidelity in the historical climate, yields evidence of future increases in 99.9th percentile 10 m height wind speeds, the frequency of simultaneous U > U₉₉₉ over a substantial fraction (5–25%) of the NE and the frequency of maximum wind speeds above 22.5 ms⁻¹. These geophysical changes, coupled with a projected doubling of population, leads to a projected tripling of a socioeconomic loss index, and hence risk to human systems, from future windstorms. Full article

Recent trends of intense forest fires in the Korean Peninsula have increased concerns about more extreme burning in the future under a warming climate. Accurate and reliable fire weather information has become more critical to reduce the risk of forest-related disasters over complex terrain. In this study, two parameterizations reflecting complex topographic effects were implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The model performance was evaluated over the mountainous region in Gangwon-do, South Korea’s most significant forest area. The simulation results of the wildfire case in 2019 show that subgrid-scale orographic parameterization considerably improves model performance regarding wind speed, with a lower root mean square error (RMSE) and bias by 53% and 57%, respectively. Another parameterization, reflecting slope and shading, effectively reflected sunrise and sunset effects. The second parametrization produced little effect on the daily averages of meteorological elements. However, thermodynamic components such as temperature and heat flux show more realistic values during sunset or sunrise when the solar altitude angle is low. The results imply that applying topographic parameterizations is required in numerical simulations, especially for hazardous weather conditions over complex terrain in mountainous regions. Full article

In the fields of meteorological simulation and computer graphics, precise simulation of clouds has been a recent research hotspot. The existing cloud modeling methods often ignore the differentiated characteristics of cloud layers at different heights, and suffer from high computational costs under long-range conditions, making them unsuitable for large-scale scenes. Therefore, we propose a multi-level particle system 3D cloud modeling algorithm based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), which combines particle weight adjustment with a Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) feedback mechanism to represent cloud features of different heights and types. Based on the multi-scale mean-shift clustering algorithm, Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation (AKDE) is introduced to map density to bandwidth, achieving adaptive adjustment of clustering bandwidth while reducing computational resources and improving cloud hierarchy. Meanwhile, selecting the optimal control points based on the correlation between particle density in the edge region and cloud contour can ensure the integrity of the internal structure of the cloud and the clarity of the external contour. To improve modeling efficiency, cascade Bezier curves are designed at different line-of-sights (LoSs), utilizing the weight information of boundary particles to optimize cloud contours. Experimental results show that, compared with similar algorithms, our algorithm reduces the average running time by 37.5%, indicating enhanced computational efficiency and real-time capability, and the average number of required particles by 30.1%, reducing the cost of long-range computing. Our algorithm can fully demonstrate cloud characteristics and interlayer differences, significantly improve modeling efficiency, and can be used for accurate modeling of large-scale cloud scenes, providing strong support for meteorological and climate prediction. Full article

Reducing anthropogenic fossil fuel CO₂ (FFCO₂) emissions in urban areas is key to mitigating climate change. To better understand the spatial characteristics and temporal variations in urban CO₂ levels in the Beijing (BJ) region, we conducted a long-term CO₂ simulation study by using the Weather Research and Forecasting WRF-Chem model and CO₂ observation data. To assess the model performance, three representative sites with high-precision CO₂ observation data were chosen in this study: the rural regional background Shangdianzi (SDZ) site, the suburban Xianghe (XH) site, and the urban BJ site. The simulation results generally captured the observed variations at these three sites, but the model performed much better at the SDZ and XH sites, with mean biases of −0.7 ppm and −2.3 ppm, respectively, and RMSE of 12.3 ppm and 21.4 ppm, respectively. The diurnal variations in the model results agreed well with those in the observed CO₂ concentrations at the SDZ and XH sites during all seasons. In the meanwhile, the diurnal variations in the modeled FFCO₂ were similar to those in the CO₂ observation with a positive bias at the BJ site, which may have been caused by higher emissions especially in winter. Moreover, both the modeled FFCO₂ and biospheric CO₂ (BIOCO₂) have positive correlations with the observed CO₂ concentration, whereas the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and observed CO₂ concentration exhibited negative correlations at all sites. In addition, the contributions of FFCO₂ and BIOCO₂ to CO₂ varies depending on the seasons and the location of sites. Full article

On 27 February 2023, the municipality of Itajubá in southeastern Brazil experienced a short-duration yet high-intensity rainfall event, causing significant socio-economic impacts. Hence, this study evaluates the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating this extreme event through a set of sensitivity numerical experiments. The control simulation followed the operational configuration used daily by the Center for Weather and Climate Forecasting Studies of Minas Gerais (CEPreMG). Additional experiments tested the use of different microphysics schemes (WSM3, WSM6, WDM6), initial and boundary conditions (GFS, GDAS, ERA5), and surface datasets (sea surface temperature and soil moisture from ERA5 and GDAS). The model’s performance was evaluated by comparing the simulated variables with those from various datasets. We primarily focused on the representation of the spatial precipitation pattern, statistical metrics (bias, Pearson correlation, and Kling–Gupta Efficiency), and atmospheric instability indices (CAPE, K, and TT). The results showed that none of the simulations accurately captured the amount and spatial distribution of precipitation over the region, likely due to the complex topography and convective nature of the studied event. However, the WSM3 microphysics scheme and the use of ERA5 SST data provided slightly better representation of instability indices, although these configurations still underperformed in simulating the rainfall intensity. All simulations overestimated the instability indices compared to ERA5, although ERA5 itself may underestimate the convective environments. Despite some performance limitations, the sensitivity experiments provided valuable insights into the model’s behavior under different configurations for southeastern Brazil—particularly in a convective environment within mountainous terrain. However, further evaluation across multiple events is recommended. Full article

This study applied the fully coupled model WRF/WRF-Hydro to simulate land, air, and water cycles in the Changbai Mountain area (CMA) in Northeast China. This study evaluated the applicability of the coupled model in the region and analyzed the impact of regional climate change on the water cycle in the study area over the past half-century. The temperature in the Changbai Mountains increased significantly from 1975 to 2020. Precipitation, canopy water, and all types of evapotranspiration showed different increasing trends, whereas surface runoff showed a decreasing trend. The comparison revealed that precipitation, canopy water, canopy evaporation, and total evapotranspiration increased gradually in the low-latitude subbasins, whereas runoff decreased more rapidly. Runoff in the study area showed an annual double peak, which was due to snowmelt in spring and abundant precipitation in summer. Under the influence of climate change, the thawing time of frozen soil and snow cover in the study area will advance, leading to an increase in the spring runoff peak and earlier occurrence time. Our results provide a reference for the study of the water cycle process of the coupled model in cold mountainous areas and a scientific reference for the scientific response to climate change and the protection of regional water resource security. Full article

This research evaluates the quality of high-impact rainfall forecasts across Vietnam and its sub-climate regions. The 3-day rainfall forecast products evaluated include the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) High-Resolution Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and its downscaled outputs using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Advanced Research WRF core (WRF-ARW): direct downscaling and downscaling with data assimilation. A full 5-year validation period from 2019 to 2025 was processed. The validation focused on basic rainfall thresholds and also considered the distribution of skill scores for intense events and extreme events. The validations revealed systematic errors (bias) in the models at low rainfall thresholds. The forecast skill was the lowest for northern regions, while the central regions exhibited the highest. For regions strongly affected by terrain, high-resolution downscaling with local observation data assimilation is necessary to improve the detectability of extreme events. Full article

The accurate estimation of solar radiation is crucial for optimizing solar energy deployment and advancing the global energy transition. This study pioneers the development of a hybrid model combining Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to estimate solar radiation in tropical regions characterized by scarce and low-quality data. Using datasets from Sumedang and Jakarta across five locations in West Java, Indonesia, the RNN model achieved moderate accuracy, with R² values of 0.68 and 0.53 and RMSE values of 159.87 W/m² and 125.53 W/m², respectively. Additional metrics, such as Mean Bias Error (MBE) and relative MBE (rMBE), highlight limitations due to input data constraints. Incorporating spatially resolved GHI data from the WRF model into the RNN framework significantly enhanced accuracy under both clear and cloudy conditions, accounting for the region’s complex topography. While the results are not yet comparable to best practices in data-rich regions, they demonstrate promising potential for advancing solar radiation modeling in tropical climates. This study establishes a critical foundation for future research on hybrid solar radiation estimation techniques in challenging environments, supporting the growth of renewable energy applications in the tropics. Full article

The urbanization effect (UE) on local or regional climate is a prominent research topic in the research field of urban climates. However, there is little research on the UE of Urumqi, a typical arid region city, concerning various climatic factors and their spatio–temporal characteristics. This study quantitatively investigates the UE of Urumqi on multiple climatic factors in summer based on a decade-long period of WRF–UCM (Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Urban Canopy Model) simulation data. The findings reveal that the UE of Urumqi has resulted in a reduction in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) within the urban area by causing an increase in night-time minimum temperatures, with the maximum decrease reaching −2.5 °C. Additionally, the UE has also led to a decrease in the water vapor mixing ratio (WVMR) and relative humidity (RH) at 2 m, with the maximum reductions being 0.45 g kg⁻¹ and −6.5%, respectively. Furthermore, the UE of Urumqi has led to an increase in planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), with a more pronounced effect in the central part of the city than in its surroundings, reaching a maximum increase of over 750 m at 19:00 Local Solar Time (LST, i.e., UTC + 6). The UE has also resulted in an increase in precipitation in the northern part of the city by up to 7.5 mm while inhibiting precipitation in the southern part by more than 6 mm. Moreover, the UE of Urumqi has enhanced precipitation both upstream and downstream of the city, with a maximum increase of 7.9 mm. The UE of Urumqi has also suppressed precipitation during summer mornings while enhancing it in summer afternoons. The UE has exerted certain influences on the aforementioned climatic factors, with the UE varying across different directions for each factor. Except for precipitation and PBLH, the UE on the remaining factors exhibit a greater magnitude in the northern region compared to the southern region of Urumqi. Full article

As climate change intensifies, extreme drought events have become more frequent, and investigating the mechanisms of watershed drought has become highly significant for basin water resource management. This study utilizes the WRF-Hydro model in conjunction with standardized drought indices, including the standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized soil moisture index (SSMI), and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI), to comprehensively investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in the Huai River Basin, China, from 2012 to 2018. The simulation performance of the WRF-Hydro model was evaluated by comparing model outputs with reanalysis data at the regional scale and site observational data at the site scale, respectively. Our results demonstrate that the model showed a correlation coefficient of 0.74, a bias of −0.29, and a root mean square error of 2.66% when compared with reanalysis data in the 0–10 cm soil layer. Against the six observational sites, the model achieved a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.81, a minimum bias of −0.54, and a minimum root mean square error of 3.12%. The simulation results at both regional and site scales demonstrate that the model achieves high accuracy in simulating soil moisture in this basin. The analysis of SPI, SSMI, and SSFI from 2012 to 2018 shows that the summer months rarely experience drought, and droughts predominantly occurred in December, January, and February in the Huai River Basin. Moreover, we found that the drought characteristics in this basin have significant seasonal and interannual variability and spatial heterogeneity. On the one hand, the middle and southern parts of the basin experience more frequent and severe agricultural droughts compared to the northern regions. On the other hand, we identified a time–lag relationship among meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts, uncovering interactions and propagation mechanisms across different drought types in this basin. Finally, we concluded that the WRF-Hydro model can provide highly accurate soil moisture simulation results and can be used to assess the spatiotemporal variations in regional drought events and the propagation mechanisms between different types of droughts. Full article

The primary goal of this study is to introduce the initial phase of developing an impact-based forecasting system for extreme heatwaves, utilizing a novel multivariate index which, at this early stage, already employs a combination of a statistical approach and physical principles related to human body water loss. This system also incorporates a mitigation plan with hydration-focused measures. Since 1990, heatwaves have become increasingly frequent and intense across many regions worldwide, particularly in Europe and Asia. The main health impacts of heatwaves include organ strain and damage, exacerbation of cardiovascular and kidney diseases, and adverse reproductive effects. These consequences are most pronounced in individuals aged 65 and older. Many national meteorological services have established metrics to assess the frequency and severity of heatwaves within their borders. These metrics typically rely on specific threshold values or ranges of near-surface (2 m) air temperature, often derived from historical extreme temperature records. However, to our knowledge, only a few of these metrics consider the persistence of heatwave events, and even fewer account for relative humidity. In response, this study aims to develop a globally applicable normalized index that can be used across various temporal scales and regions. This index incorporates the potential health risks associated with relative humidity, accounts for the duration of extreme heatwave events, and is exponentially sensitive to exposure to extreme heat conditions above critical thresholds of temperature. This novel index could be more suitable/adapted to guide national meteorological services when emitting warnings during extreme heatwave events about the health risks on the population. The index was computed under two scenarios: first, in forecasting heatwave episodes over a specific temporal horizon using the WRF model; second, in evaluating the relationship between the index, mortality data, and maximum temperature anomalies during the 2003 summer heatwave in Spain. Moreover, the study assessed the annual trend of increasing extreme heatwaves in Spain using ERA5 data on a climatic scale. The results show that this index has considerable potential as a decision-support and health risk assessment tool. It demonstrates greater sensitivity to extreme risk episodes compared to linear evaluations of extreme temperatures. Furthermore, its formulation aligns with the physical mechanisms of water loss in the human body, while also factoring in the effects of relative humidity. Full article

The continental United States is a global hotspot of severe thunderstorms and therefore is particularly vulnerable to social and economic damages from high-impact severe convective weather (SCW), such as tornadoes, thunderstorm winds, and large hail. However, our knowledge of the spatiotemporal climatology and variability of SCW occurrence is still lacking, and the potential change in SCW frequency and intensity in response to anthropogenic climate warming is highly uncertain due to deficient and sparse historical records and the global and regional climate model’s inability to resolve thunderstorms. This study investigates SCW in the Central and Eastern United States in spring and early summer for the current and future warmed climate using two multi-year continental-scale convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations. The pair of simulations consist of a retrospective simulation, which downscales the ERA-Interim reanalysis during October 2000–September 2013, and a future climate sensitivity simulation based on the perturbed reanalysis-derived boundary conditions with the CMIP5 ensemble-mean high-end emission scenario climate change. A proxy based on composite reflectivity and updraft helicity threshold is applied to infer the simulated SCW occurrence. Results indicate that the retrospective simulation captures reasonably well the spatial distributions and seasonal variations of the observed SCW events, with an exception of an overestimate along the Atlantic and Gulf coast. In a warmer-moister future, most regions experience intensified SCW activity, most notably in the early-middle spring, with the largest percentage increase in the foothills and higher latitudes. In addition, a shift of simulated radar reflectivity toward higher values, in association with the significant thermodynamic environmental response to climatic warming, potentially increases the SCW severity and resultant damage. Full article